Executive Summary

Q4 delivered a sharp sequential rebound: revenue rose to $151.6M from $57.7M in Q3, with net income swinging to $53.7M (dil. EPS $3.20) from a $5.0M loss, driven by opportunistic uranium sales into a strong spot market and solid LEU mix; YoY, revenue increased 46% though EPS modestly trailed Q4’23 ($3.58) .
Strategic positioning improved: cumulative HALEU deliveries reached ~545 kg in Phase 2, with DOE increasing Phase 2 funding to $129.0M and extending performance to June 30, 2025; management reiterated a ~42‑month timeline to first commercial cascade, supported by a $60M centrifuge manufacturing ramp .
Balance sheet fortified: issued $402.5M of 2.25% converts (Nov-24), lifting unrestricted cash to $671.4M at year-end; pension de-risking actions materially reduced obligations and future costs .
Key near-term stock catalysts: DOE task order awards across LEU/HALEU/deconversion, resolution of the IRA-related funding pause (EO 14154), further Russian waiver/export license clarity, and potential monetization of uranium inventory amid elevated prices .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Strong sequential quarter: revenue and EPS inflected positively on opportunistic December uranium sales at “historic levels,” driving quarter strength and showcasing commercial agility .
- HALEU progress and awards: delivered ~545 kg to DOE in Phase 2; won three DOE awards (HALEU production, HALEU deconversion, LEU production IDIQs) underpinning scale-up potential backed by >$3.4B appropriations .
- Liquidity and de-risking: $402.5M converts issued; unrestricted cash $671.4M; pension obligations reduced by ~$277.5M in 2024 with plans now ~118% funded—lowering structural risk and costs .
What Went Wrong
- Policy/funding uncertainty: Executive Order 14154 directed agencies to pause IRA-funded distributions for review, injecting timing risk into DOE task order funding and cadence .
- Russian supply constraints: despite DOE waivers for 2024–2025 and three specific export licenses from Russia, future waivers/licenses for 2026–2027 remain uncertain—posing fulfillment and scheduling risk .
- Mix/contract headwinds (FY lens): management noted FY LEU margin headwinds from specific contract/pricing mix and a loss contract that weighed on SWU margins; Q4 strength was not formal guidance for replication .

Financial Results

P&L summary (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($M)	189.0	57.7	151.6
Gross Profit ($M)	36.5	8.9	61.8
Operating Income ($M)	21.1	(7.6)	45.1
Net Income ($M)	30.6	(5.0)	53.7
Diluted EPS ($)	1.89	(0.30)	3.20

Margins (computed from reported figures; citations reference source tables)

Margin	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Gross Margin %	19.3% (36.5/189.0)	15.4% (8.9/57.7)	40.8% (61.8/151.6)
Operating Margin %	11.2% (21.1/189.0)	-13.2% ((-7.6)/57.7)	29.8% (45.1/151.6)

Segment/line revenue (oldest → newest)

Revenue ($M)	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
SWU	139.7	34.8	48.7
Uranium	29.9	—	73.2
Technical Solutions	19.4	22.9	29.7
Total Revenue	189.0	57.7	151.6

KPIs and balance sheet snapshots

KPI	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Backlog ($B)	2.7	3.8	3.7
HALEU delivered cumulative (kg)	~179	~332	~545
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($M)	227.0	194.3	671.4
DOE HALEU Phase 2 – value/funding	—	—	$129.0M; Phase 2 to 6/30/2025
Contingent LEU commitments ($B)	~0.9	~2.0	~2.0; $0.8B definitized with KHNP on 2/4/25 (post‑Q4)

Notes: Q4 non-GAAP adjustments were not applicable; Adjusted EPS equals GAAP EPS in Q4 (warrant-related adjustments affected 2022 only) .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
HALEU Operations – Phase 2 funding	Through 6/30/2025	Not specified previously	DOE increased Phase 2 value/funding to $129.0M	New detail/expanded
HALEU Phase 2 deliveries	Phase 2	Not specified previously	Adequate cylinders to achieve 900 kg UF6 in Phase 2	New detail/expanded
DOE Russian LEU waivers	2024–2025	7/18/24 waiver for U.S. customer deliveries	10/31/24 waiver for 2025 foreign customer deliveries; 2026–27 waivers requested & pending	Maintained/extended with pending items
Centrifuge manufacturing investment	Next 18 months	—	~$60M to resume/expand Oak Ridge manufacturing	New program
Investment Tax Credit (48C)	4-year capture window (per statute)	—	IRS granted $62.4M allocation; certification and placed-in-service milestones required	New allocation
IRA funding availability	2025+	—	EO 14154 pauses IRA-funded distributions pending review	Risk/uncertain timing

Centrus does not provide revenue/EPS guidance; management reiterated the ~42‑month commercialization timeline from readiness investments, contingent on timely DOE task orders/funding handoff within the next 6–12 months .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 & Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
DOE task orders timing	RFPs submitted; timing unknown; competitive process	Task orders are “next steps”; timing not speculated	Awaiting awards; unchanged timing visibility
HALEU production/ramp	First-of-a-kind HALEU running; Phase 2 under cost-plus model	545 kg delivered; Phase 2 extended/funded; targeting 900 kg; 42‑month timeline affirmed	Operational progress; clearer near-term funding
Russian import ban/waivers	DOE waiver for 2024–25 U.S. deliveries; seeking more	Add’l 2025 foreign-customer waiver; 3 Russian export licenses; 2026–27 waivers filed	More permissions, but 2026–27 remain uncertain
AI/data center nuclear demand	Big Tech commitments cited as industry driver	Continues to support LEU/HALEU demand narrative	Strengthening narrative tailwind
Manufacturing/capex readiness	Exploring scale-up; proposals in process	$60M Oak Ridge investment to de-risk supply chain, accelerate readiness	Acceleration and spend committed
Balance sheet de-risking	Pension annuitizations; ATM raises	$402.5M converts; unrestricted cash $671.4M; plans ~118% funded	Significantly stronger liquidity

Management Commentary

“This was another strong quarter and year for Centrus as we expanded our backlog, demonstrated the success of our technology by continuing first-of-a-kind HALEU production, and restarted centrifuge manufacturing activities.” — CEO Amir Vexler .
“We are well-positioned to compete for more than $3.4 billion in federal funding… and uniquely positioned to deliver a made-in-America solution that supports American jobs.” — CEO .
“In the fourth quarter, we significantly strengthened our balance sheet by closing of over $400 million of convertible notes… and announced an approximately $60 million investment to resume centrifuge manufacturing.” — CEO .
“Of the $256.0 million [FY LEU] cost of sales, 25% is attributable to the release of costs related to previously deferred sales… excluding [this], the average unit cost of SWU sold would have only increased 27%.” — CFO .
“Our continued positive operating results, coupled with the successful close of the convertible debt transaction and the reduction of our pension plan obligations contributed to an ending unrestricted cash balance of $671.4 million.” — CFO .

Q&A Highlights

DOE task orders: Management would not speculate on timing; next steps are DOE-issued task orders under the IDIQ awards .
$60M readiness spend: Intended to de-risk and accelerate cycle times ahead of task orders; positions Oak Ridge for higher production levels .
Uranium sales in Q4: Strength reflected a December spot sale at historically high UF6 prices; opportunistic and dependent on market conditions/inventory .
Commercialization timeline: ~42 months remains the baseline; $60M spend starts the “readiness” clock, but continued pace depends on government funding handoff over 6–12 months .
Russian export licenses: TENEX obtained three specific licenses to date; future license timing remains uncertain .

Estimates Context

S&P Global (Capital IQ) consensus for Q4 2024 EPS/Revenue and prior quarters was unavailable at time of analysis due to data request limits. As a result, we are unable to present a vs-consensus beat/miss comparison at this time. Values retrieved from S&P Global are unavailable due to daily limit constraints.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Sequential earnings power is evident when uranium/SWU mix aligns and when Centrus monetizes inventory into strong markets; Q4’s gross and operating margins underscore embedded operating leverage .
The multi-year thesis hinges on DOE task orders and funding flow; resolution of the IRA pause and award timing are the pivotal catalysts for 2025–2026 .
HALEU execution remains on track, with tangible deliveries and increased Phase 2 funding; the 42‑month commercialization path will require timely government “baton handoff” and continued private co-investment .
Liquidity provides flexibility (cash $671M; converts raised) to advance manufacturing and supply chain readiness and potentially address higher-coupon notes in 2027 .
Russian waivers/licenses have improved near-term visibility but remain a medium-term risk into 2026–2027; delivery timing and customer allocations may shift accordingly .
Backlog/supportive offtake (including KHNP definitization post-Q4) and Big Tech/utility momentum in nuclear reinforce demand, but revenue recognition will track awards, task orders, and delivery schedules .
Trading setup: headline sensitivity to DOE task order announcements, IRA pause resolution, and additional HALEU/LEU milestones; uranium price volatility provides optionality for further inventory monetization .

Appendix: Additional Context and Cross-References

Q4 2024 8-K and press release include full quarterly financial statements and non-GAAP reconciliation, which showed no adjustments for Q4 2024 (adjustments impacted 2022) .
DOE awards across HALEU deconversion (Oct-08-24), HALEU production (Oct-17-24), and LEU production (Dec-11-24) make Centrus eligible to compete for future task orders under >$3.4B appropriations .
Backlog at 12/31/24: $3.7B (LEU ~$2.8B; Tech Solutions ~$0.9B), including ~$2.0B contingent LEU commitments (with $0.8B definitized with KHNP on 2/4/25) .
Policy risk: Executive Order 14154 pausing IRA distributions for review may affect timing of DOE-funded activities; company continues to invest privately in readiness .

CENTRUS ENERGY CORP (LEU)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary