LGI Homes - Earnings Call - Q3 2025

Executive Summary

• Q3 results were mixed: revenue beat consensus while EPS missed; management emphasized margin discipline amid affordability headwinds. Revenue was $396.6M vs $390.3M consensus and $651.9M LY; diluted EPS was $0.85 vs $0.93 consensus and $2.95 LY. Consensus values marked with an asterisk are from S&P Global*.
• Order momentum inflected: net orders rose 8.1% YoY and 43.9% QoQ; backlog ended at 1,305 homes (+19.9% YoY; +61.5% QoQ), positioning Q4 closings at 1,300–1,500 with ASP $365k–$375k, GM 21–22%, adj. GM 24–25%, SG&A 15–16%, tax ~26%.
• Margins tracked guidance: GM 21.5% and adj. GM 24.5% (down YoY on tougher comps, higher lot cost/cap interest, and higher wholesale mix). SG&A was 16% of revenue on lower volume leverage.
• Stock setup: near-term catalysts include sequential acceleration into Q4 (395 October closings) and evidence that rate buydowns (e.g., 3.99% 5/1 ARM) sustain orders; risks include elevated cancellations (33.6% in Q3) and capitalized interest remaining high.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • Orders/backlog re-accelerated on rate relief and targeted promotions: net orders +8.1% YoY, +43.9% QoQ; backlog +19.9% YoY, +61.5% QoQ. “Rates are down and sales are up” with early Q4 momentum from October closings of 395.
  • Disciplined incentive strategy and pricing: management leaned into competitive buydowns (3.99% 5/1 ARM) while avoiding extreme buydowns and selective price cuts, preserving margins within guidance. “Our margins reflect disciplined execution, not elevated pricing.”.
  • Land and cost position remain a differentiator: self-developed lots add several hundred bps to margins; average finished lot cost ~ $70k, with lot cost just over 20% of ASP supporting margin stability.

• What Went Wrong

  • Profitability compressed YoY: GM 21.5% vs 25.1% LY; adj. GM 24.5% vs 27.2% LY, driven by tougher prior-year comp, higher lot cost and capitalized interest as % of revenue, and higher wholesale mix.
  • EPS miss vs consensus: diluted EPS $0.85 vs $0.93 consensus*; other income was positive but SG&A delevered to 16% on lower revenue base, limiting EPS.
  • Cancellation rate elevated: quarterly cancellation rate was 33.6%, up from earlier 2025 levels; management expects capitalized interest to “remain elevated,” a headwind to GM.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Welcome to the LGI Homes third quarter 2025 conference call. Today's call is being recorded, and a replay will be available on the company's website at www.lgihomes.com. After management's prepared comments, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. At this time, I'll turn the call over to Joshua Fattor, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations and Capital Markets.

Joshua Fattor (EVP of Investor Relations and Capital Markets)

Thanks, and good afternoon. I'll remind listeners that this call contains forward-looking statements, including management's views on the company's business strategy, outlooks, plans, objectives, and guidance for future periods. Such statements reflect management's current expectations and involve assumptions and estimates that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause those expectations to be incorrect. You should review our filings with the SEC for a discussion of the risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could cause actual results to differ from those presented today. All forward-looking statements must be considered in light of those related risks, and you shouldn't place undue reliance on such statements, which reflect management's current viewpoints and are not guarantees of future performance. On this call, we'll discuss non-GAAP financial measures that are not intended to be considered in isolation or as substitutes for financial information presented in accordance with GAAP.

Reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable measures prepared in accordance with GAAP can be found in the press release we issued this morning and in our quarterly report on Form 10-Q for the quarter ended September 30th, 2025, that we expect to file with the SEC later today. This filing will be accessible on the SEC's website and on the Investor Relations section of our website. I'm joined today by Eric Lipar, LGI Homes Chief Executive Officer and Chairman of the Board, and Charles Merdian, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer. I'll now turn the call over to Eric.

Eric Lipar (CEO and Chairman of the Board)

Thanks, Josh. Good afternoon, and welcome to our earnings call. During the quarter, our teams remained focused driving leads, managing inventory, and supporting our customers by delivering exceptional customer service and providing a seamless road to homeownership. Thanks to our outstanding efforts, we delivered positive third-quarter results that were in line with the guidance provided on our last call. During the quarter, we closed 1,107 homes. Of this total, 1,065 homes contributed directly to our reported revenue of $397 million. The remaining 42 were currently or previously leased homes, the profits of which reflected in other income. Gross margin came in at 21.5%, and adjusted gross margin was 24.5%, both in line with the guidance range we provided. We've been successful in maintaining the overall strength of our margins even while operating in the most challenging segment of the market.

That's on purpose, and it's worth spending a few moments discussing why. First, we take a thoughtful approach to financing incentives. With higher mortgage rates driving affordability challenges, buydowns and other financing tools are among the most effective ways to help buyers reach the closing table, and we continue to lean in to offering the most competitive buydowns possible. However, going to extremes on buydowns just to move a few incremental homes is something we're working hard to avoid. Second, we continue to price all of our homes competitively, and we use price adjustments selectively, focusing on aging inventory while maintaining or raising prices in high-performing communities. Third, we prefer not to sacrifice margins to institutional land bankers.

As a result, we don't have a pipeline of lot takedowns pressuring us to start homes prematurely, heavily discounting them to keep the system moving, or to renegotiate takedown schedules, which leads to higher future lot costs. Avoiding these situations gives us the freedom to be patient and make smart, long-term decisions that will benefit our shareholders. Our best land banking partner has been and will continue to be the seller. Finally, because we primarily self-develop our lots, our margins include the profit a developer would have earned. This adds several hundred basis points to our margins and sets our performance apart from other builders who rely on purchasing finished lots. It's also a key reason we have never taken an inventory impairment. In short, our margins reflect disciplined execution, not elevated pricing.

We do everything possible to manage costs and deliver a high-quality, beautiful home at a price that enables as many first-time buyers as possible to achieve the dream of homeownership. During the third quarter, our top markets on a closings per community basis were Charlotte with 5.7, Las Vegas with 4.7, Raleigh with 4.2, Greenville with 3.7, and Denver with 3.5 closings per community per month. Congratulations to the teams in these markets on their performance last quarter. Another highlight of our results was a significant increase in net orders and backlog. As we noted on our last call, sales trends improved in the back half of June, continuing into July as mortgage rates declined from their mid-year highs. These trends continued into August and September, driven by continued relief in rates and sales initiatives connected to our year-end Make Your Move National Sales Event.

Because mortgage rates remain the key pressure point for entry-level buyers, we introduced exceptional financing options, including a forward-rate buydown commitment, which has a meaningful impact on improving affordability for many buyers. Additionally, we're offering price discounts of up to $50,000 on select older inventory. Together, these initiatives jump-started sales activity, demonstrated by an 8% increase in net orders compared to the same period last year and a 44% increase compared to the second quarter. As a result, our backlog at quarter-end was up 20% year-over-year and 62% sequentially. We're encouraged by the momentum these initiatives have generated and view them as a positive step forward as we head into the fourth quarter. Before I hand the call over to Charles, I'll note that our long-term view of the housing market remains solidly optimistic.

The underlying demographic trends continue to support our strategy, while the widening supply gap makes the attainable housing options LGI provides more valuable than ever. With that, I'll invite Charles to provide additional details on our financial results.

Charles Merdian (CFO and Treasurer)

Thanks, Eric. Revenue in the third quarter totaled $396.6 million, down 39.2% compared to the prior year, driven by a 39.4% decline in closings. The average selling price of homes closed was $372,424, up slightly from last year, primarily driven by geographic mix and lower magnitude of incentives, and was partially offset by a higher percentage of wholesale closings in the third quarter. The wholesale channel remains a compelling way to balance our home inventory. Our wholesale operation generated $54.5 million of revenue, resulting from 163 home closings, or 15.3% of total closings, compared to 9.1% of total closings in the same period last year. Our gross margin was 21.5% compared to 25.1% in the same period last year.

The decline was primarily driven by a particularly strong comp last year, along with higher lot cost and capitalized interest as a percentage of revenue and a higher mix of wholesale closings. Adjusted gross margin was 24.5% compared to 27.2% in the same period last year. Adjusted gross margin excluded $11 million of capitalized interest charged cost of sales and $1 million related to purchase accounting, together representing 300 basis points compared to 210 basis points last year. We expect capitalized interest to remain elevated due to higher borrowing costs and have reflected such in our fourth-quarter guidance. Combined selling general and administrative expenses totaled $63.6 million, or 16% of revenue, in line with our guidance. Selling expenses were $35.7 million, or 9% of revenue, up slightly from 8.5% in the same period last year. General and administrative expenses were flat year-over-year at $28 million.

As a percentage of revenue, G&A expenses were 7.1% compared to 4.3% in the same period last year. Both selling and general and administrative expenses were higher as a percentage of revenue due to lower volume. Other income in the quarter was $5.2 million, primarily resulting from the gain on sale of leased homes, finished lots, other land held for sale, and LGI Living lease income. Pre-tax net income was $26.7 million, or 6.7% of revenue. Our effective tax rate was 26.2% compared to 24.3% in the same period last year. And for the quarter, we generated net income of $19.7 million, or $0.85 per basic and diluted share. Order metrics improved materially in the third quarter, with net orders coming in at 1,570 homes, an increase of 8.1% over the same period last year and 43.9% sequentially.

Our cancellation rate in the third quarter was 33.6%, similar to the prior quarter of this year. Backlog at quarter-end totaled 1,305 homes, up 19.9% year-over-year and 61.5% sequentially. The value of our backlog at quarter-end was $498.7 million. Of the homes under contract, 60 were tied to contracts with institutional buyers, representing 4.6% of total backlog compared to 212, or 19.5% of backlog in the same period last year. Currently, we're seeing continued interest from our wholesale partners and we're well-positioned for increased engagement from institutional buyers seeking to acquire scaled portfolios of finished inventory. However, the ability to transact continues to depend on alignment around pricing expectations. Turning to our land position. As of September 30th, our portfolio consisted of 62,564 owned and controlled lots, a decrease of 8.8% year-over-year and 3.4% sequentially.

Of our total lots, 53,148, or 84.9%, were owned and 9,416 lots, or 15.1%, were controlled. Of our owned lots, 36,316 were raw land and land under development, 25% of which were in active development that we expect to deliver over the next few years. The remaining 16,832 owned lots were finished. Of those, 13,136 were vacant and 3,696 were related to completed homes or homes under construction. We had 895 homes under construction at quarter-end, down 40.8% sequentially and 54.7% year-over-year as we continue to focus on rebalancing inventory in select markets to meet current sales trends. The value of our portfolio of owned lots continues to be a competitive advantage for LGI Homes.

With an average finished lot cost of approximately $70,000, and lot cost representing just over 20% of our ASP in the third quarter, our land position provides a meaningful cost advantage that supports margin stability even in a volatile market. This low basis enables us to offer competitive pricing to buyers while preserving profitability, and it reflects years of disciplined land acquisition and development. During the quarter, we started 725 homes. We expect to continue to balance starts in the coming quarters, primarily focusing on new and high-performing communities while slowing or pausing starts in communities where there is unsold existing inventory. I'll now turn the call over to Josh for a discussion of our capital position.

Joshua Fattor (EVP of Investor Relations and Capital Markets)

Thanks, Charles. We ended the quarter with $1.75 billion of debt outstanding, including $623.6 million drawn on our revolver. We remained focused on reducing leverage, ending the quarter with a debt-to-capital ratio of 45.7% and a net debt-to-capital ratio of 44.8%. As inventory levels decrease and development spend moderates, leverage will continue moving toward the midpoint of our targeted range of 35%-45%. Total liquidity at the end of the quarter was $429.9 million, including $62 million of cash and $367.9 million available under our credit facility. Our liquidity was up by over $107 million compared to the prior quarter, over $54 million compared to the same period last year. As of September 30th, our stockholders' equity was $2.1 billion, and our book value per share was $90.10. With that, I'll turn the call back to Eric.

Eric Lipar (CEO and Chairman of the Board)

Thanks, Josh. Rates are down and sales are up. This recent increase in the pace of sales is an encouraging sign, and our October closings demonstrate that the fourth quarter is off to a strong start. Tomorrow, we plan to issue a press release announcing that we closed between 390-400 homes in October, pending verification of funding. This was our best month since June and reflects early signs of momentum coming from our sales initiatives. Community count at the end of October was 141 communities. We're continuing to write contracts in a market where many of our buyers need additional time to save for a down payment, make modest improvements to their credit, or sell an existing home. This dynamic results in longer times between contract and close.

Based on our current backlog, recent pull-through trends, October closings, and current sales trends, we currently expect to close between 1,300-1,500 homes in the fourth quarter. At the midpoint of this range, that would represent a 26% increase in closings compared to the third quarter. We remain focused on affordability and meeting buyers at a monthly payment where they are able and willing to transact. We expect an average sales price in the fourth quarter to range between $365,000-$375,000. Community count at year-end is expected to be approximately 145. Looking ahead, we expect community count at the end of 2026 to increase by 10%-15%, reflecting continued investment in growing community count in our existing markets. Fourth-quarter gross margin is expected to range between 21-22%, and adjusted gross margin between 24-25%, similar to the results we delivered in the third quarter.

Finally, SG&A expenses are expected to fall between 15-16%, and our tax rate is expected to be approximately 26%. We're pleased with our third-quarter results and proud of the hard work our teams have put in to build up the backlog and position us for success in the quarters ahead. Their efforts drive our results and lay the groundwork for future opportunities, and I want to thank them for their continued focus and dedication to our company and to our customers. We'll now open the call for questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. At this time, we will conduct the question-and-answer session. As a reminder, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please stand by while I compile our Q&A roster. And our first question will be coming from Trevor Allinson of Wolfe Research. Your line is open.

Trevor Allinson (Director of Equity Research)

Hi, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my questions. First question is on the acceleration in orders of more than 40% sequentially, so clearly much better than normal seasonal trends. You talked about the benefit of lower rates, but then you also talked about some company-specific initiatives. Can you talk about which of those you think was the biggest driver of the acceleration, and then should we view this as a strategy shift to lean into more volume, or were some of the actions more a reflection of desire to move some of the aged inventory that you guys had?

Eric Lipar (CEO and Chairman of the Board)

Yeah, thanks, Trevor. Great, great question. This is Eric. I want to look at it as a strategy shift to start with. I think what we've been talking to investors about and talking throughout the calls, we're in the affordable housing business focused on an entry-level buyer, and we talked about rates are very important in that affordable monthly payment. And rates, the headline rates, is the lowest it's been in the last 12 to 18 months, is that 10-year Treasury below 4%. And as rates went down, our sales went up. Not a surprise to us, just offering a more affordable monthly payment. There are things that's happened when rates have come down. Where our incentives and the value that we're providing, not necessarily spending more money, but being able to offer a 3.99% promotional rate. Is something we never offered before, and that's new for the quarter.

We continue to lean into advertising dollars when appropriate, and this quarter, we're able to increase our advertising, drive more leads because it was working to drive those payments. And also, the team in the field's doing a great job. We're hiring more salespeople. The field is taking on more responsibility and training our new sales reps. And doing a great job with that. So all those in combination is really more, I think, market-driven and affordability-driven, not a shift in strategy.

Trevor Allinson (Director of Equity Research)

Okay. Thanks for that, Eric. That was really helpful. And then second is on your views on your own land position, and you had some commentary about the benefits of your own land position, but appreciating you guys, your orders did jump here. It does seem overall like the market still remains pretty slow for most of the industry. You guys still control, give or take, 10 years of land. So is there a desire to more significantly work down your land positions here? And if you have already begun doing this to some degree, what's been the appetite from other builders for additional land? Thanks.

Charles Merdian (CFO and Treasurer)

Yeah, Trevor, this is Charles. I can take that one first. So, we're constantly looking at our land supply in terms of what our current absorptions are, timing our development. We've got 13,000 finished vacant developed lots, which is a little heavier than we typically would like to have, but given the fact that we started development on a number of these communities beginning back in 2021, 2022, so we have a number of communities that have been either in entitlements or active development for several years, and they're just now coming to fruition and getting online for sales. So we feel very confident in our basis in those finished lots.

So of our 13,000 finished lots, we have an average lot cost basis in the 70s, which we think is a tremendous value to help us maintain stability in margins, gives us a cost advantage when we're thinking about our land inventory and when to bring it on. And then the processes and what we're working with is managing our future development spend. So our development spend is sequentially coming down. We had about 9,000 lots that were in active development that's going to come into the operation over the next couple of years. So I think as we continue to focus on absorptions, work through the vacant developed land, we think eventually we are going to be in a position where the land inventory has been right-sized and in line with what we would expect.

As far as availability of land and what we're offering, we do have some communities where we have excess finished vacant developed lots in terms of where we're thinking about. We may have another community that we can adjust and put in behind it. So we're actively working on making good decisions on monetizing those where appropriate. Didn't have a lot of activity. It closed in this quarter, but we just continue to evaluate that and make good decisions whether to monetize those finished lots or whether to put them in the queue for future home construction.

Trevor Allinson (Director of Equity Research)

Makes a lot of sense. Thank you for all the color and good luck moving forward.

Charles Merdian (CFO and Treasurer)

Yeah. Thanks, Trevor.

Operator (participant)

Our next question will be coming from Kenneth Zener of Seaport. Your line is open.

Kenneth Zener (Senior Analyst of Housing Sector)

Good afternoon, everybody.

Eric Lipar (CEO and Chairman of the Board)

Good afternoon.

Kenneth Zener (Senior Analyst of Housing Sector)

So. The commentary around 10%-15% community count growth, two aspects. First. Given your selling and training process, which is unique to you guys, can you talk about how much of that, I guess, the G&A, is in your fourth-quarter guidance as we think about modeling that community count growth? And then, is that community count growth, could you give us a first half, second half lift, or is it steady? Thank you.

Eric Lipar (CEO and Chairman of the Board)

Yeah. Yeah. No, a good question, Ken. This is Eric. I can talk about the community counts, and then Charles can talk about the G&A part of that. But community count, I think, is going to be spread equally through 2026. One of the notes I made is. The states that will be primarily driving the increase in community count are Florida, Texas, and California. But they'll be spread equally through 2026. They're all bought. They're in process. And we're confident with that number.

Charles Merdian (CFO and Treasurer)

Yeah, Ken. As far as SG&A goes, I'll start with G&A. I mean, we've been averaging around $30 million in quarterly G&A expense going all the way back to the beginning of 2024. So we feel pretty comfortable that we've pretty well established the overhead side from a G&A perspective. And then as we bring in new community counts, we have the incremental dollars that we're going to have in terms of installing our information centers, hiring new sales staff, our office managers, and our sales managers. So incrementally, those come in as a similar percentage of our expected revenue. So we don't think there's any front-ending, if you will, on this coming up next 12 months of community count. We're in the same geographic area, so we're not expanding into any new markets.

So our leadership infrastructure is in place, so that should be limited additional costs related to that.

Kenneth Zener (Senior Analyst of Housing Sector)

And then thinking about leverage, sticking with SG&A on units, obviously the first quarter was quite high this year, but we've been in that kind of 15% range, 22, 23% implied Q4 or Q4 a little higher. But can you comment about, given where your SG&A is and the gross margin pressure, I think we can understand, but what do you think about SG&A given your community count and how you see the business unfolding? Should it stay at the same rate as we are ending this year, or do you think you're going to get some lift in SG&A in general? Thank you.

Eric Lipar (CEO and Chairman of the Board)

Yeah, Ken, great question. Charles can add to it, but I think we look at SG&A as it's really all about leverage and volume and absorptions. The G&A is predominantly fixed. The amount of marketing dollars fixed, but the total percentage of SG&A that was 16%. Last quarter, that is entirely dependent on the volume, and volume is not where we want it to be right now, nor the past couple of years. It's improving in Q4, and we're excited about the orders and the backlog heading into Q4, and our guidance is for closings to be up 26%, and that's why we're guiding to a little bit less SG&A percentage in Q4 because of the leverage we're getting from closings.

Kenneth Zener (Senior Analyst of Housing Sector)

Thank you.

Eric Lipar (CEO and Chairman of the Board)

You're welcome.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question will come from Alex Rygiel from Texas Capital Securities. Your line is open.

Alex Rygiel (Managing Director)

Thank you. Can you talk a bit about the types of mortgages that your buyers are taking, and are you starting to see any use of adjustable rate mortgages?

Eric Lipar (CEO and Chairman of the Board)

Yeah, thanks, Alex. This is Eric. I can take that. About just over 60% of our customers are taking FHA mortgages, and then when you combine that with VA and a very small percentage of USDA, I'd say government makes up 70%-75% of our customers. And then conventional mortgages are another 10%-15%. Adjustable rates, more customers are taking adjustable rates only because we are offering, I mentioned it earlier, a 3.99% 5/1 ARM product, which is a fixed rate for five years at 3.99%, which has been very positive in the market and well received by our customers.

Alex Rygiel (Managing Director)

Super helpful. And then, directionally speaking, as we look at it into 2026, anything unique dynamic that could affect your average selling price, or should we just model it based upon our own views as to how much price it might get next year?

Eric Lipar (CEO and Chairman of the Board)

Yeah, I think my personal opinion is ASP is really going to have a lot of geographic component to it, and then it also, even on a community-by-community basis, the customers, the range of floor plans in available communities is usually $60,000-$80,000 from the smallest floor plan to the largest floor plan. So that brings a layer of variability to it. We've been seeing our average square foot decrease in a more challenging affordability market. Costs right now are slightly down, which is a little bit of a tailwind to margins, but a little bit lower ASP, all things considered, so we have a view that prices are going to continue to go up.

Our average sales price was $160,000 in 2019 and $240,000 in 2019, so when you look at costs over the next three to five years, we believe they're continuing to go up, and our ASP is going to continue to go up. Over the next year, we'll see how it plays out and probably use your judgment as well.

Alex Rygiel (Managing Director)

Helpful. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. And our next question will be coming from Andrew Azzi of JPMorgan. Your line is open, Andrew.

Andrew Azzi (VP)

Hi. Thanks for taking my questions, guys. Just wanted to dig in a little bit on the community count growth for next year. That was definitely helpful guidance. I mean, is that outlook inclusive of a view that demand kind of improves significantly from here, or are you kind of dedicated to that growth, let's say, if current trends were to continue?

Eric Lipar (CEO and Chairman of the Board)

Yeah, we're dedicated to that. The dollars are on the ground, and that would be at a community count that would be level with the current pace of absorptions today.

Andrew Azzi (VP)

Got it. And how would you compare your incentives currently to, let's say, six months ago, and how are you thinking about kind of adjusting these alongside your strategic initiatives? I believe. Just to touch on that, I think it was just the rate buy down and the price discounts. I'm curious if there are any others that are in the pipeline, but would love to hear your thoughts there.

Eric Lipar (CEO and Chairman of the Board)

Yeah, I would describe it as similar. We have been leaning into incentives and focus on getting older inventory sold and closed. I think the overall market coming down is what's been the difference for us is our similar paying points to get a lower rate. You just get more value from that right now. You can see in our gross margin guide being similar to in Q4 as Q3. We're not planning on incentivizing more current levels of gross margin, and then we'll see what 2026 holds. But I think incentives levels have been consistent, and it's something that all of us in the industry have had to do for the last couple of years.

Andrew Azzi (VP)

I appreciate that. I'll pass it on.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. And I'm showing no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the call back to Eric for closing remarks.

Eric Lipar (CEO and Chairman of the Board)

All right. Thanks, everyone, for participating on today's call and your continued interest in LGI Homes. Have a great day.

Operator (participant)

This concludes LGI Homes' third quarter 2025 conference call. Have a great day.