Executive Summary

Full-year 2024 revenue rose 53% to $28.0M, while cash and cash equivalents were $22.6M at year-end; the quarter’s operational focus was financing (DOE loan closed) and spoke optimization rather than discrete Q4 financial outperformance .
Q4 operational KPIs: Li-Cycle produced ~1,200 tonnes of Black Mass & Equivalents, contributing to 5,370 tonnes for FY24; Spoke throughput and EV-pack mix remained strategic priorities .
Financing/guidance developments: DOE ATVM loan facility of up to $475M finalized with conditions to fund base equity/reserve accounts before first advance; MHP off-take with Glencore reinforced Rochester Hub’s commercialization path under the MHP scope .
Near-term stock narrative hinges on liquidity and strategic alternatives: management disclosed going-concern risks and a March 14, 2025 letter from Glencore expressing interest in a potential transaction—both are catalysts for strategic outcome and funding clarity .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- DOE ATVM loan facility closed (up to $475M, 0% spread to Treasuries; maturity March 15, 2040) improving capital structure and enabling Rochester Hub restart subject to conditions. “This loan…is a critical step towards our goal of restarting construction at the Rochester Hub project” .
- MHP commercialization framework secured: 100% MHP off-take with Glencore and existing lithium carbonate off-takes preserved, de-risking product placement under the MHP scope .
- Spoke optimization momentum: quarterly BM&E production increased into Q3 (1,459 tonnes), focus on Generation 3 Spokes (Arizona, Alabama, Germany), with EV battery packs ~40% of feedstock; Q4 added ~1,200 tonnes BM&E .
What Went Wrong
- Liquidity and going-concern risk: management highlighted substantial doubt about continuing as a going concern absent additional financing/strategic transactions; YE24 cash was $22.6M, and conditions on the DOE loan require significant base equity/reserve funding before first draw .
- Cost structure vs revenue still challenging: FY24 revenue $28.0M vs cost of sales $76.6M and SG&A $75.3M, indicating continued negative gross margin and cash burn despite YoY expense reductions .
- Commodity headwinds and operational pauses: softness in nickel/cobalt prices and paused Hub construction weighed on profitability; New York Spoke curtailed as part of optimization; capital expenditures sharply reduced in 2024 .

Financial Results

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	FY 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$8.4	$8.4	N/A	$28.0
Cost of Sales ($USD Millions)	$(19.4)	$(20.0)	N/A	$(76.6)
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)	$(11.0) (calc)	$(11.6) (calc)	N/A	$(48.6) (calc)
Gross Margin (%)	(131%) (calc from )	(138%) (calc from )	N/A	(173%) (calc from press release URL)
SG&A ($USD Millions)	$(15.3)	$(12.9)	N/A	$(75.3)
Net Profit (Loss) ($USD Millions)	$(8.2)	$56.5	N/A	$(137.7)
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$(0.36)	$2.15	N/A	N/A
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$(23.4)	$(21.7)	N/A	N/A

KPI	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	FY 2024
BM&E Production (tonnes)	~1,394	~1,459	~1,200	~5,370
BM&E Sold (tonnes)	1,158	~2,000	N/A	4,190 (9M)

Note: Q4 2024 discrete revenue/EPS were not disclosed in company filings; management issued preliminary operational highlights (BM&E volume) and full-year results. Where quarterly data are not available, cells are marked N/A.

Guidance Changes

Metric/Item	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance/Update	Change
Rochester Hub Scope/CTC	Project through mechanical completion	~$960M total cost; CTC evolving	~$960M total cost; remaining CTC ~$487M	Maintained total; updated remaining CTC
DOE Loan Facility	Availability through Mar 31, 2027	Conditional commitment (working toward definitive docs)	Definitive $475M facility closed; First Advance by Nov 7, 2025; base equity/reserves (~$173M reserves incl. up to $97M LCs) required pre-draw	Raised/Finalized; conditions detailed
Product Off-take (MHP)	Rochester Hub	Lithium carbonate off-takes (Traxys/Glencore)	100% MHP off-take with Glencore; Li carbonate off-takes unchanged	Expanded scope to include MHP
Spoke Operations	Near term	Optimization plans; Ontario closure; New York curtailed	Continued focus on Gen 3 Spokes; Q4 BM&E ~1,200 tonnes	Maintained/Executed

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q2 2024 (Aug 8)	Q3 2024 (Nov 7)	Current Period (Q4/FY updates)	Trend
DOE Financing	Working toward definitive docs; top priority	Closed $475M ATVM loan; 0% spread; maturity 2040; pre-draw conditions	Focus on meeting Base Equity/Reserve conditions; First Advance deadline	Positive milestone; execution risk remains
Rochester Hub – MHP Scope	Technical review advanced; total cost ~$960M	Technical review completed; annual output up to ~72k tonnes MHP + ~8,250 tonnes Li carbonate; nameplate 35k tonnes black mass	Commercial framework and off-take secured; restart contingent on financing	De-risked commercialization; funding still key
Spoke Optimization	Gen 3 focus; EV packs ~40% of feed	BM&E production up (1,459t Q3); black mass quality/cost focus; New York curtailed	Q4 BM&E ~1,200t; full-year BM&E 5,370t	Consistent execution
Macro/Commodities	Nickel/cobalt softness; lithium excess supply	EV adoption tailwinds; U.S. 45X credit benefits	FY narrative: liquidity/strategic review overshadowed by macro	Mixed macro; policy supportive
Regulatory/Legal	OTCQX/NYSE listing risk flagged in filings	Litigation/claims disclosed (MasTec, shareholder suits)	FY risk factors reiterate going-concern/liquidity	Elevated risk

Management Commentary

“This loan…is a critical step towards our goal of restarting construction at the Rochester Hub project” (Ajay Kochhar, CEO) .
“We expect annual production of up to approximately 8,250 tonnes of battery-grade lithium carbonate and up to approximately 72,000 tonnes of MHP…nameplate processing capacity remains at 35,000 tonnes of black mass annually” .
“We are actively evaluating financing and strategic alternatives for a full funding package needed to restart construction…which includes meeting requirements for the first advance of the DOE loan” .

Q&A Highlights

Metal-price sensitivity and DOE price-deck: management noted a soft period for nickel, cobalt, and lithium but emphasized basket exposure and accretive economics under conservative debt assumptions; DOE expectations are not “bullish equity underwriting” assumptions (Q2 2024) .
Timeline for Hub review: technical viability confirmed; financial (funding) remains gating item (Q2 2024) .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus estimates for Q4 2024 and FY 2024 were unavailable due to missing CIQ mapping for LICY in our SPGI system. As a result, comparisons to Wall Street consensus are not provided.

Key Takeaways for Investors

The DOE loan closing is a major de-risking event, but near-term equity/reserve funding requirements and first-advance deadline introduce execution risk; monitoring cash runway and transaction progress is critical .
MHP off-take with Glencore and preserved lithium carbonate off-takes underpin Rochester Hub commercialization; product placement risk appears contained if restart proceeds .
Spoke optimization is delivering consistent BM&E production (Q4 ~1,200t; FY 5,370t), with EV-pack processing capabilities as a differentiation and growing recycling services revenue .
Profitability remains challenged: FY24 cost of sales and SG&A materially exceed revenue; gross margins are negative; any restart must be paired with disciplined cost control and funding .
Strategic alternatives (including Glencore interest letter) could catalyze funding and structure outcomes; the stock narrative likely hinges on liquidity resolution and Hub restart visibility .
Operational catalysts: satisfying DOE conditions, formal FID (final investment decision) for the Hub under MHP scope, and continued spoke throughput gains .
Risk factors remain elevated (going-concern, legal proceedings, commodity price volatility); downside protection depends on securing financing or strategic transaction .

Sources Read (Q4 2024 and Prior)

Q3 2024 8-K press release and 10-Q (financials, DOE loan, off-take, Hub scope, risks) .
Q3 2024 earnings call transcript (full) .
Q2 2024 8-K press release and earnings call transcript (full) .
Other relevant Q4 2024 press releases: European Hub PFS/Glencore collaboration (Dec 5, 2024) ; Glencore note modifications/security (Dec 10, 2024) ; Preliminary FY24 commercial/operational highlights (Jan 10, 2025) .
Full-year 2024 press release (Business Wire) for FY context .

Note: We did not find a discrete Q4 2024 earnings press release filed as an 8‑K 2.02 or a separate Q4 earnings call transcript in the document catalog; we therefore relied on the preliminary January 10, 2025 operational update and the March 31, 2025 full-year press release for Q4/FY context, and used Q2/Q3 filings/calls for trend analysis .

Li-Cycle Holdings Corp. (LICY)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary