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    LINCOLN EDUCATIONAL SERVICES (LINC)

    Q2 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Apr 14, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$11.65Last close (Aug 7, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$11.64Open (Aug 8, 2024)
    Price Change
    $-0.01(-0.09%)
    • Strong Student Demand: The Q&A revealed that student starts grew by 12%, reaching closer to 5,000, which exceeded expectations and supported higher guidance for the full year. This indicates strong enrollment trends driven by an effective marketing strategy and operational execution.
    • Cost Efficiency and Operating Leverage: Despite a $2 million increase in marketing spend, the cost per start remained relatively flat. This operational efficiency suggests the company can scale enrollments without proportionally increasing costs, bolstering profitability potential.
    • Robust Campus Expansion Strategy: The new East Point, Georgia campus is already exceeding enrollment targets, with modeled enrollment reaching 700 to 750 students by year-end. This successful new-campus performance, coupled with additional campus and program expansions, underpins the company’s long-term 2027 targets of $550 million in revenue and $90 million in adjusted EBITDA as discussed in the Q&A.
    • Regulatory delays impacting campus rollouts: Delays in building permit approvals, as seen with the Houston campus being pushed to start in Q4 2025, could lead to revenue timing issues and increased costs. ** **
    • Variability in student start numbers: Fluctuations in program starts—particularly in healthcare and LPN programs, which were down or inconsistent due to timing—raise concerns about enrollment stability and operational execution. ** **
    • Overreliance on specific program segments: With strong growth concentrated in transportation, skilled trades, and auto while healthcare shows tepid or volatile performance, the company’s growth may be vulnerable if these segments face future headwinds. ** **
    1. 2027 Targets
      Q: Increase target rounding differences?
      A: Management confirmed an upward revision of 2027 targets to $550 million in revenue and $90 million in adjusted EBITDA—reflecting a slight increase driven by the strategic growth plan, a first-time disclosure.

    2. Campus Footprint
      Q: Which campuses are in the 2027 plan?
      A: The plan includes 2 relocating campuses, the new Atlanta campus, and Houston (despite delays), with a forthcoming announcement for an additional campus later.

    3. Starts Performance
      Q: What drove higher student starts?
      A: Starts reached about 5,000 (up 12%) thanks to increased marketing and robust demand, with momentum expected to carry into the next quarter.

    4. Program Variance
      Q: Why were healthcare starts lower?
      A: Timing differences, particularly in healthcare-related (LPN) programs, led to a slowdown this quarter, though full-year growth in this area is still anticipated.

    5. Cost Efficiency
      Q: Did extra marketing impact cost per start?
      A: The cost per start remained nearly flat—with only a modest 1–2% change—indicating that increased marketing has been effectively managed.

    6. Healthcare Replication
      Q: Can healthcare mimic skilled trades’ success?
      A: With a new VP in place, management is refocusing efforts on healthcare to replicate the success seen in skilled trades, expecting more detailed opportunities from 2025 onward.

    7. Healthcare Funnel
      Q: How robust is the healthcare funnel?
      A: Demand in healthcare remains strong and growing, although the replication efforts in auto and skilled trades are currently more pronounced.

    8. Houston Delay
      Q: What’s delaying the Houston campus?
      A: Regulatory delays due to building permit approvals have pushed the Houston start to Q4 2025.

    9. Auto vs. Healthcare Growth
      Q: Will auto/trades outpace healthcare?
      A: Yes; the firm expects auto and skilled trades to grow at a faster rate due to ongoing program replication, even as healthcare shows promising signs.

    10. Lincoln 10.0 Efficiency
      Q: Are efficiencies from Lincoln 10.0 emerging?
      A: Early indications from Lincoln 10.0 show improved faculty utilization and better student-to-teacher ratios, setting the stage for further operational savings in 2025.

    Research analysts covering LINCOLN EDUCATIONAL SERVICES.