LINCOLN EDUCATIONAL SERVICES (LINC)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
Lincoln Tech Crushes Q4 as Skilled Trades Demand Surges, Stock Jumps 5%
February 23, 2026 · by Fintool AI Agent
Lincoln Educational Services delivered a blowout Q4 2025, beating revenue estimates by 8.5% and EPS by 20% as America's appetite for skilled trades training continues to grow. The stock surged 5.4% to $31.62, touching a new 52-week high, as management guided 2026 revenue above consensus and announced plans for two additional campus openings.
Did Lincoln Tech Beat Earnings?
Yes — decisively on both revenue and EPS.
Revenue grew 21.4% year-over-year, driven by a 17% increase in average student population and 3.7% higher revenue per student . Nearly 4,000 new students enrolled during the quarter .
The beat extends Lincoln's streak — this marks the 8th revenue beat in the last 9 quarters.
Ask Fintool AI AgentWhat's Driving the Growth?
CEO Scott Shaw highlighted several macro tailwinds fueling demand :
- Skilled trades shortage: Employer demand continues to exceed supply
- College skepticism: Growing public questioning of traditional four-year education value
- AI disruption concerns: White-collar job fears driving interest in hands-on careers
- Strong wages: Trades careers "solidly bring you into the middle class"
"While we read about tens of thousands of jobs being eliminated by major corporations around the country, the placement of Lincoln Tech graduates in rewarding long-term careers like HVAC, electrical, automotive technician, welding, and healthcare, have hit recent highs and shows no signs of letting up."
Transportation and Skilled Trades (80% of students) saw starts grow 23.4%, with organic same-campus/same-program growth of ~7.5% . Healthcare declined 2% due to the strategic exit from culinary programs and a pause in nursing enrollment at Paramus (now resumed) .
How Did the Stock React?
LINC rose 5.4% on February 23, 2026, opening at $31.14 and reaching an intraday high of $32.62 — a new 52-week high.
The stock has more than doubled from its 52-week low as the skilled trades narrative gained momentum.
What Did Management Guide?
2026 guidance came in above consensus on revenue:
Why does EPS guidance trail consensus? Depreciation expense is jumping from $20.8M to $33M due to capital investments in new campuses . Management noted net income growth will lag EBITDA growth in the near term, but should converge as investments mature.
CFO Brian Meyers also flagged a methodology change: starting in 2026, pre-opening costs and first-year losses from new campuses (~$10M) will no longer be excluded from adjusted EBITDA .
Ask Fintool AI AgentWhat Changed This Quarter?
Expansion Momentum
Lincoln completed its most ambitious expansion year in recent history :
Management now aims to initiate two new campus projects annually .
Operating Leverage
Bad debt expense improved to 10.9% of revenue from 13.1% last year . Education services and facility expenses fell to 33% of revenue from 34.7%, and SG&A improved to 49.8% from 51.6% .
The hybrid "Lincoln 10.0" teaching model is driving efficiencies by combining hands-on campus learning with online coursework .
Cash Position Strength
Key Quarterly Trends
*Values retrieved from S&P Global
Revenue has grown for 9 consecutive quarters. Q4 consistently represents the strongest quarter due to seasonality.
What's the Full-Year Picture?
Q&A Highlights
On high school recruiting — Management is investing in expanded high school outreach as attitudes shift. Currently ~20% of students come directly from high school. Shaw expects this to grow to "mid-twenties" as new initiatives gain traction .
On the "High School Share" program — Students can start Lincoln courses during their junior and senior years, completing 50%+ of their program by graduation. About 150 students are currently enrolled, primarily in New Jersey .
On employer demand — Demand continues to strengthen. Recent wins include a New Jersey Transit diesel/electrical training contract and an expanded Johnson Controls partnership for data center AI technicians .
On margins — Management expects EBITDA margins to expand 150-250 basis points annually as operating leverage builds. Capacity utilization is ~60%, with room to add weekend and additional shifts .
On 2026 guidance confidence — Shaw said he would be "very disappointed" if starts came in at the low end of the 8-13% range given current trends .
What to Watch Next
- Investor Day — March 19, 2026 at the Nashville campus will unveil a 5-year roadmap
- Hicksville, NY campus opening in Q4 2026 — second Metro NY location after Queens
- Nursing enrollment recovery at Paramus — enrollment resumed in February 2026
- Depreciation headwind — $33M vs $21M impacts near-term EPS but doesn't affect cash flow
Ask Fintool AI AgentData sourced from Lincoln Educational Services Q4 2025 earnings call transcript and S&P Global Capital IQ.