Limbach - Earnings Call - Q3 2021

Transcript

Speaker 0

Greetings. Welcome to Limbach Holdings Third Quarter twenty twenty one Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. A Please note this conference is being recorded.

I will now turn the conference over to Jeremy Hellman with The Equity Group. Thank you. You may begin.

Speaker 1

Thank you very much, and good morning, everyone. Yesterday, Limbach Holdings announced its 2021 results and filed its Form 10 Q for the fiscal quarter ended 09/30/2021. During this call, the company will be reviewing those results and providing an update on current market conditions. Today's discussion may contain forward looking statements, and actual results may differ from any forecast, projections or similar statements made during the earnings call. Listeners are reminded to review the company's annual report on Form 10 ks and quarterly reports on Form 10 Q for risk factors that may cause the actual results to differ from forward looking statements made during the earnings call.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Charlie Bacon, the President and Chief Executive Officer of Limbach Holdings. Please go ahead, Charlie.

Speaker 2

Good morning, everyone, and thanks for joining us. Joining me today is our CFO, Jamie Brooks our COO, Mike McCann and Executive Vice President, Matt Katz, is also on hand for Q and A session, which will follow our prepared remarks. Those of you who have followed our company know we have been pointing to the third quarter as a major reflection point in our business, and I'm extremely proud of the results we reported. Specifically, our ODR segment revenue growth was 17.6% year on year and 17.2% sequentially. Our ODR gross margins of 29.8% were up 190 basis points year on year and 55 basis points sequentially.

And GCR gross margins of 14.2% were delivered, up two eighty basis points year on year and four zero three basis points sequentially. Our net income of $4,000,000 is the largest since we went public five years ago and that was primarily the result of excellent gross margin performance in the quarter and our refinancing, which was completed in Q1. As good as many of the indicators are from the quarter, we firmly believe we have further room for growth. The strategic plan we put in place two years ago centered on improving our bottom line profitability. Process towards that goal was slowed as we grappled with the impacts of the pandemic.

And with that receding, the results we reported last night are strong evidence that our leaders are executing well on our strategic plan. I also want to thank all of the staff here at the company for their hard and smart work. We have incredible talent in our offices and in the field. The entire team are rowing together and we're realizing these positive outcomes. Very proud of all the people here that work at Limbach.

I think we're doing a terrific job. Our ODR segment continues to grow, helping improve our consolidated gross margin, while we also believe temperate the overall risk profile of our business. Our GCR segment is also performing well as our shifted focus to bottom line profitability is delivering the intended results. Within our ODR segment, our bookings actively remained strong and accelerated through the third quarter with September our strongest month of the year. The maintenance base continued to grow.

And as a reminder, maintenance contracts typically can lead to higher margin, quick hitting, small capital project work often performed on a T and M basis along with emergency repairs. That work normally results in total revenues for Limbach in excess of the recurring maintenance contracts. Turning to our GCR segment, the risk management initiatives we began two years ago to improve our performance continued to take hold as successful project closeouts helped drive segment margin of 14.2% in the quarter. When we propose on projects, our expectation is that once the dust has settled, projects will earn gross margins at or above the level at which we proposed. Our emphasis on quality project selection coupled with consistent execution in the field is resulting in improved segment profitability, and we intend to continue that performance.

There may be some variability in GCR segment gross margin quarter to quarter, but we expect the broader margin improvement to continue and remind everyone that annual or twelve month trailing numbers and margins offer the best lens from which to monitor our DCR segment performance. With that, I'll hand it off to Jamie for her financial highlights.

Speaker 3

Thanks, Charlie. Our earnings press release and our Form 10 Q contain a thorough review of our financials. And with that in mind, I will focus my discussion on a few key points that merit further review. First is cash flow. Cash from operating activities for the quarter was $7,800,000 and cash and cash equivalents was $33,300,000 On the last call, we had questions around forecasting our cash flow and had spent some time discussing how we can explain the dynamics of our cash flows, as our industry has somewhat unique aspects in how work is filled compared with a company that sells its product, for example.

In addition, our cash flows, much like our operating results, are best viewed on an annual or trailing twelve month basis due to the quarter to quarter swings that can occur as a function of project life cycles. Broadly, the most significant impact on our cash flows quarter to quarter are accounts receivable, accounts payable and the over and under billings, which are included in our contract liabilities and assets accounts. As we commence work on a project, we often look to bill ahead for portions of that work, and when we are successful in doing so, we develop an overbilled position. At December 31, we were in a net overbilled position of around $14,100,000 So that was cash that we collected on work not yet performed, setting aside the DSO on those billings. By September 30, that reversed, and we were in a net underbilled position of 3,300,000.0.

Setting aside the timing of payments for those incurred costs, that was basically cash that we paid in advance of being able to bill our customer due to a host of reasons, which is typically normal course for the operations perspective. Both of these amounts can be found in Note three of our Form 10 Q. In looking at that time period from 12/31/2020 to 09/30/2021, this shift from a net overbill position to a net underbill position is a $17,400,000 fluctuation of cash, which we model and monitor internally based on our individual project cash flows. Our over and underbillings are influenced by a range of things from project type and life cycle to the customers we are doing work for, along with other external market dynamics, such as the supply chain impact for materials and equipment. As such, unfortunately, there is no good way for investors to model the fluctuations in these accounts and how their impact is on cash.

However, there are several items on our cash flow statement that are more easily modeled, such as depreciation and amortization, noncash operating lease expense, interest expense, taxes and stock comp. Non recurring items such as the Q1 loss on debt extinguishment and the upcoming payment in Q4 of $3,200,000 for the deferred payroll taxes under the CARES Act, which we have discussed before, should also be fairly straightforward to model. Next, I want to highlight our gross margin, as this is where the impact of our efforts to drive more of a balanced business mix show in our financial statements. In the third quarter, our consolidated gross margin was 18.9%, which is an excellent result. Both of our segments performed at margin levels exceeding the ranges we have noted before, with ODR gross margin for the quarter at 29.8% compared with our target range of 25% to 28%, and 27.9% in the third quarter last year.

GCR gross margin was 14.2% compared with 11.4% in the same period last year. This quarter's results also compared favorably versus our estimated range of 10.5% to 11.5%. As Charlie noted, GCR gross margin benefited from a number of successful project closeouts in the quarter. We continue to view the target market ranges we have laid out as reasonable for modeling purposes in 2022. In OVR, we are optimistic that 2022 will see more larger projects in the mix as we believe building owners will help growth in their CapEx spend.

As that work comes on, we would expect our segment margins to soften a bit as larger projects tend to carry lower relative margins. We are also closely monitoring our supply chains, which Mike will discuss in more detail in a moment. In GCR, our margins can be a bit more volatile due to the timing completions and starts, along with external factors such as weather and supply chain impacts. While we have succeeded in booking projects and improved margins relative to a year or two ago, we still feel it is prudent to conservatively model the segment in the 10.5 to 11.5% gross margin range. Lastly, want to touch on SG and A.

Our SG and A expense ticked up $1,300,000 compared to the third quarter last year. Last year's third quarter was a period of somewhat reduced SG and A expense as we were still not in full back to the office mode and thus expense categories such as travel and entertainment were running at a lower rate. Additionally, in 2021, we've continued to make investments in our ODR expansion, such as the opening of our new national office in order to track additional health care ODR business and getting out to see our customers. Before handing the call off to Mike, I want to discuss the potential headwinds going into the fourth quarter. Over the past few months, we have noticed an increase in our health care claims per participant compared to 2021 full year plan.

As we are self insured, the increased claims have had a direct impact on our operating results. We continue to monitor our health care costs and note that if this trend continues into the fourth quarter, we could have an unfavorable impact on the quarter and full year operating results. Additionally, Mike will touch on the vaccine mandates, but I did want to note that the compliance costs to meet the vaccine mandates could also unfavorably impact our fourth quarter and our full year results. I'll now pass the call back to Mike.

Speaker 4

Thanks, Jamie. In light of the broader market conditions with respect to supply chains, I want to provide some color on how we are reacting to those issues. First, commodities. Pressure on raw material pricing and availability has leveled off. It appears that we're at significant it doesn't appear that we're at significant risk in the existing book of business and the new business is taking into account the potential risk of a return to inflationary period.

Of note, when we bid projects we make sure customers know our pricing is only good for seven days and keeping that limitation on pricing has helped us mitigate our risk. Next is labor. The impact of a tightening labor market has not likely been felt in full. We've been managing labor carefully, so perhaps there's some opportunity emerge from having left some capacity available. We believe our biggest near term risk is one shared across the industry, is the impending vaccine mandates.

Currently any federal work requires a 100% vaccination for all parties working on a project, but really don't do that much federal work. For Limbach, the larger risk is the OSHA requirement that any private business with over a 100 employees have everyone vaccinated or be tested weekly. We're keeping a close watch on whether or not the courts will allow us to go into effect and are developing plans with the expectations that the mandates will go into effect. On equipment, it is a risk point for us in Q4 as it could impact our ability to incur cost and drive percent complete, which drives revenue recognition. Without key equipment, some work could be forced into a holding pattern and we are very focused in doing all that we can to procure the equipment we need on the schedule we need it.

Lastly, want to reinforce that we are staying focused on all our standard risk management processes. Along with stronger data reporting that we incorporate into the business over the past twenty four months, it is clearly paying off with the results we realized in Q3. I'll now pass the call back

Speaker 3

to

Speaker 2

Charlie. As I noted at the start of our call, we had a really good third quarter and are successfully executing on our plan despite the ongoing COVID-nineteen impacts. I am disappointed with the year to date numbers, but Q3's results reinforce what's possible. Our OER transformation is continuing with that segment growing nicely and doing so with healthy margins. In terms of market dynamics for that segment, our business mix has continued to favor operating capital spend rather than large growth capital work.

Given everyone's awareness of the supply chain issues in our economy, building owners are accurately aware of the need to make sure their existing equipment is properly maintained, and that benefits us. I want to share two other points, the market forecast and our expansion of the ODR services. The September AIA Billing Index continues to indicate expansion at 56.6. The Dodge Momentum Index hit a fourteen year high, a 47% increase over the same period last year. The FMI fourth quarter forecast presents a forward view of continued growth with nonresidential building sectors growing through 2025, with health care, our largest sector, indicating very strong growth over the period.

The FMI report also reinforces the growth in the Southeast U. S. Where we are looking at expansion opportunities. With ODR services, we have been successful with launching a new service known as program management services, specifically focused on the national and regional health care providers. This service assists customers to develop their capital projects.

Early entry will allow us to better serve our customer base and better position us to secure more business following the planning cycle of a project. During the quarter, we sold these services to several major national customers, including two new significant customers. Looking ahead to 2022, the various indicators we track indicate continued market strength. This positive macro backdrop allows us to an ample opportunity to continue being selective in our project proposals with a focus on securing work at attractive margins while optimizing our available resources. In our GCR business, we knew rightsizing our operations would include negative headwind of a revenue decline.

With that said, we have seen our margins and profitability improve, which is the ultimate goal of the strategy. Also recapping some comments I made earlier, our ODR bookings during the third quarter were good and accelerated in September. We're really pleased with the volume and quality of the opportunities in front of us. Lastly, we are reaffirming our guidance for 2021 with revenues in the range from $480,000,000 to $510,000,000 with adjusted EBITDA of $23,000,000 to $25,000,000 With that, we'll take your questions.

Speaker 0

Thank you. Our first question is from Rob Brown with Lake Street Capital. Please proceed.

Speaker 5

Good morning, Charlie. Good morning, Jamie. Nice job on the quarter.

Speaker 3

Hi, Rob. Good morning, Rob. Thank you.

Speaker 6

Just wanted to kind

Speaker 5

of clarify your comments about Q4 and some of the cost pressures that you're seeing in health care and the vaccine mandates. Is that in your guidance and kind of commentary about being in the, on the low end of the EBITDA, range? Or is that, would that be incremental to what you're what you're talking about?

Speaker 3

That would be incremental. What we are looking we're just looking at kind of what we know today, and that's what, is in our guidance. And then, that's what we just wanna make them, you know, investors aware that those are things that had been that we're we're looking at, but we're not able to put any kind of parameters around those right now.

Speaker 5

Okay. Okay. Good. Got it. And and then the the margin kind of expansion that that sort of implied in your in your in your project business, you you you know, how's the visibility on that right now in terms of q four?

And then, you guess, coming Terry, into next year, but is the margin expansion visibility sort of for the rest of the year?

Speaker 4

Rob, thanks for that question. The biggest thing that we've really been focusing on the last nine months is to make sure that we get our mix between Owner Direct and GCR and really been pushing that. We're excited about our sales in Q3 from ODR. And that mix along with similar performance that we're looking for going forward is really the mix that we're looking to obtain.

Speaker 5

Okay, great. And then you have pretty positive comments about the growth rates into next year. How does that order book sort of play out? And when how does the how much visibility will you have in the next year sort of at this point? And how much your sort of view is or I guess how much of your the expectations out there is sort of in the backlog at this point?

Speaker 2

The ODR sales picking up, Rob, is just fantastic news. We've seen a trend the whole year in a positive way. So we're looking at ODR growth going right into next year. We don't see that letting up. When you look at GCR, we continue to look at maximizing our return on people.

So as I've said in the past, we're looking not so much as a that's not really the growth story. It's kind of profit story. We're going to maximize our margins on GCR. So when I look at the pipeline, the pipeline certainly appears strong. And by the indices we track and I made those statements about the recent reports, all very positive for 2022, 2023, 2024.

And I think just the supply and demand curves are really going to allow us to continue to maximize the bottom line of GCR. And where we see opportunities in the business to grow it, meaning we have very successful execution, we will look for growth. But quite frankly, in some of our business units, we've not fared that well. And there's going to be a shift really to focus in on OER, which is this very high margin. And quite frankly, those branches have a great track record of executing ODR.

So it's going to be a mix of, I'd say, growth on ODR and modest opportunity on GCR. But I think we have pretty good visibility on next year.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thank you. I'll turn it over.

Speaker 0

Our next question is from John Old with Longmeadow Investors. Please proceed.

Speaker 7

Hi, everyone. Thanks, and congrats on the results. I wonder if you could, Charlie, update us on claims collection and sort of the acquisition program?

Speaker 2

Sure. Good morning, John. Charlie here. So on the claims collection bid, we've made some progress on two of the projects that we're definitely moving forward in the right direction, and we're really pleased with it. Had one project that was extended, a federal project.

And it's kind of interesting. I think we've worked it smartly. We've submitted a total of three claims. All of those claims have been resolved, but the project is going to be about two years late. And we're going in with a fourth, but the progress is steady.

And as a result, we did maybe see some of the problems we've seen in the past where we just couldn't get resolution early. Another particular project, which is a private project, is in kind of final negotiations right now. So we'll have to see how that continues to play out. But we're holding firm. We're not backing off, and we're looking for strong settlements.

Some of the big ones that we're dealing with are continuing to drag out. And that's just what's interesting when you step back and look at one particular opportunity, the general contractor is going after monies that are probably 10 times the size of our claim. And it involves all the contractors. It's not just us. So we're working hand in glove with them to continue to progress that, but it's going to continue to take a while to resolve.

So we're seeing progress on several fronts. And I sure wish it would move faster on the other fronts. But again, I look at it as future cash to come into the company. On the acquisition front, we remain active. And actually, I'd like to have Matt make a comment or two.

Go ahead, Matt.

Speaker 8

John, good morning. Yeah, I think Charlie's quick comment there is certainly appropriate. The market, I think, broadly speaking, has leveled off in terms of overall activity, given the anticipated capital gains tax rate changes at the end of the year. I think everybody who was going to try and get something done this year, probably launched over the summer or into the early fall. And so, if you want to use the inbound broker driven or banker driven activity as a measure of the health of the market, it's probably where you would expect at this point.

Obviously, if somebody's launching now, they don't anticipate getting anything done by the end of the year. What we are seeing, again broadly, is that even for folks who may not have been in a rush, there is a level, I think, of just emotional fatigue for a lot of these business owners and folks who, a year ago, might not have really seriously considered evaluating a transaction, I think are having a change of heart. So we're seeing a market that is certainly receptive to Limbaugh. And I continue to think we've a very good story to tell, and a good brand to market. And it's sort of manifesting itself in some very interesting opportunities at various stages of discussion.

We're sort of always in this perpetual cycle of bringing opportunities into the queue, evaluating them, putting some on the back burner, moving past others, and then really focusing on a couple. We're going to continue to remain disciplined, but we do see some things that we like. The challenge, obviously, is threading the needle between seller willingness to engage our feelings about our underlying performance in the market and getting our arms around commodity price exposure, equipment availability, and COVID vaccine mandates, both at Limbaugh and elsewhere. And then feeling like we've got the right cultural compatibility. So we've certainly set up for ourselves a process and a structure that requires some degree of precision and firing on all cylinders before we're at a point where we fall in love.

But we're open minded to following excuse me, falling in love and would certainly like to get something done if it's the right opportunity.

Speaker 2

John, I just want to add a couple of the points to Matt's comments. We continue to hunt and we're mainly focused in the Southeast United States. We think that's the area region we really need to expand into. And we're also looking at either an existing sector or possibly a new sector that has strong growth potential. But all of it has to complement our ODR expansion plan.

Matt's done a great job at nurturing some opportunities. As he said, we're at various stages of discussion.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thanks.

Speaker 0

Our next question is from Chip Brown with Stifel. Please proceed.

Speaker 6

Good morning, guys. Thanks for taking my call. My question is regarding the ODR service segment expansion. So you made some comments on the Nashville office and how the impact on SG and A. Any any light that you can shed on the impacts to working cap, what we can expect going forward in terms of capital constraints?

Speaker 2

Yes. So it's a minor SG and A investment. I'm sorry, it was Chip, ChipRing?

Speaker 6

Yes.

Speaker 2

Yes, good morning Chip. Thanks for the question. Yes, it was a minor investment, but we brought on board a very talented person. And we're going to walk before we run. We have added another professional to that staff.

We're selling. It's like working better than expected, actually. It's ahead of plan from our original view on how to get into this. Our objective to add program management services, I just want to explain, it's a little bit different than our core service, but it's something I did for twenty one years of my career. I did a lot of program management in the past before Jordi Lindbach.

And it's an opportunity for us to really develop value propositions for a client to spend CapEx to develop their project. And then we get the knowledge early on what's going to happen, which positions us later for another further ODR play with the actual CapEx spend. So we actually secured three new clients during the quarter. These are major players based in Nashville. So we're quite excited.

So from a CapEx excuse me, a SG and A perspective, we just have two people there, and they're doing a great job, and they'll be feeding work to the rest of the company. And we didn't open up a big office or anything like that. It's a very modest investment. So I hope that provides some color on what we did in Nashville.

Speaker 6

Yes. Thank you. I appreciate it. Can we expect within I mean, this to be cash flow accretive within the next year or so?

Speaker 2

Oh, yes. Oh, yes. Absolutely.

Speaker 6

Thank you. Appreciate it.

Speaker 0

Our next question is from Mike Hughes with SGF Capital. Please proceed.

Speaker 9

Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. First, I wanted to follow-up on the M and A discussion. Can you give a range of multiples that you're looking at, at this point?

Speaker 8

Mike, our target range is in the area of plus or minus 4.5x trailing EBITDA over the last couple of years for target companies. And that's, you know, that's that's prior to any potential synergy opportunities, either on the front end from a a revenue and gross profit point of view or in terms of of back end administrative efficiencies.

Speaker 9

Okay. The ODR business, last quarter, you indicated would grow by 25% this year, which implies a full year of $159,000,000 Year to date, you've done 101,000,000 So to get to that goal that you put out there last quarter, you'd need to do close to $60,000,000 this quarter, up from a just reported $39,000,000 Can you just kind of comment on that potential?

Speaker 2

Sure. Like I said earlier, we had very strong sales in the third quarter, which we needed to see in order to fuel the fourth quarter revenue. I think the $159,000,000 is probably a bit of a stretch for the quarter, but we do expect it to grow over Q3. So we're going to wrap up the year nicely in terms of growth year on year. Yes.

And as I said earlier, I was a bit disappointed in terms of how the beginning of the year went, which impacted sales and resulting revenue. But from the standpoint of the strength of Q3, and we don't see that lightening up in Q4, it's kind of teeing up even though a nice start to the year in Q1. And again, the sales, the way that works, which is very different than GCR, the ODR sales are rather immediate. It's we sell it, we book it and we execute it. So seeing that strong third quarter fuels the following quarter, right, the fourth quarter.

And again, in the sales right now in the pipeline, there seems to be just continued pent up demand, and a lot of customers are focused on fixing existing equipment, which is great from us from a T and M perspective and emergency work. We're seeing one of our best years ever on the T and M front. So we don't expect that to lighten up, especially because of the supply chain issues.

Speaker 9

Okay. You just hit on one of my concerns with that segment, pent up demand. I'm just wondering how much of this is just business that was pushed to the right and you're going to have very robust results at ODR for a few quarters and then it kind of rolls over. Just maybe address that issue.

Speaker 2

One of the things that a service business, an indicator of its strength, is the sale of preventative maintenance contracts. And we're having a record year. Now what does that mean? So once you sell a preventative maintenance contract, you're in with the customer. And we have right now about an 88% renewal rate annually.

They're evergreen contracts. And when you look at selling that maintenance contract, you start getting a multiplier effect of revenue, and it's very high margin. So to see this year's growth, it's going to be our best year ever of preventative maintenance contracts, right? So it's not just the emergency work, it's actually setting up the future to have an expanding core service business. So we're quite excited about that.

We did spend more money on sales resources over the past two years to get that momentum going, and it's paying off. So actually, we don't see it letting up. And the way I'd like you to look at it, Mike, I still think it's the tip of the iceberg. There's so much growth potential in the ODR segment. When you start looking at our footprint and market penetration, there's so much more opportunity for us to expand.

So I don't see us letting up. We're going to continue to invest in the expansion of ODR. We believe that's where we should really, really invest.

Speaker 9

Okay. So you expect the revenue for that segment to increase sequentially into the fourth quarter from the $39,000,000 you just reported for the September. Do you have enough visibility to commit to that segment being up in the March versus the December?

Speaker 2

Right now, as far as the fourth quarter, we expect the growth in revenue in the fourth quarter. We have visibility on that. And I'm sorry, the second part of that question?

Speaker 9

Do you have visibility into the March thinking it will be up sequentially from the December?

Speaker 2

Yes. I think right now, the pipeline of sales appears to be strong, right? So we sell it, we perform it. Through the course of this year, we've seen a continued ramp up of sales activity through the year. And the third quarter was better than the second quarter, second quarter was better than the first quarter.

Speaker 5

Right.

Speaker 2

So we don't expect that to slow down. And again, I think we've invested with the right, I call them, feet on the street. So the expansion, I don't expect it to let up. The only concerns we have right now, again, is supply chain matters, which is no different than any other business today. But we're making our customers aware of it.

And the interesting part of that, instead of ordering maybe new equipment, they want to move forward with a chiller. But instead, they're saying, well, you know what, put Band Aids on the existing chiller, which is great for us because we have our techs in their buildings, and they're spending money and we're reaping the revenue at very high margins. So we're working it as best we can in terms of opportunity. And Mike, do you have any other thoughts about that in terms of opportunity on the supply chain side?

Speaker 4

Yes, I think from the other thing too that we've seen from both segments is the supply chain has become more complicated and we've really worked internally to make sure that we are managing that properly through communication and awareness. The one thing we've definitely seen from our customers is they're turning to us, especially from a trusted relationship perspective to look for more of a turnkey approach. Maybe in the past they would have bought parts and smarts or pieces. Now they're looking for somebody to kind of manage that for them. So we see opportunity as we go forward and especially we've seen now for more return key approach as opposed to what we've seen in the past.

Speaker 9

Okay. And then turning to the GCR side of the business, the backlog has declined for a few quarters now, which I appreciate your discipline on bidding. But when does that bottom out? Do you have an idea?

Speaker 4

The TCR perspective and I think Charlie touched upon this a little bit too. We're really making sure that we're maximizing outcomes. We've got a business where we're trying to make sure that the we perform the best that we can in place that we've historically performed. We're really watching the quality of the gross profit and making sure that we're not growing and impacting that. So I think it's very dependent on markets that we're working on.

It depends on opportunity. We're trying to be smart from really making sure that resources are paired with opportunities. But our key is once we hit a certain level in a certain market, we're making that will turn to a growth pattern in that market.

Speaker 2

I want to reinforce that when we look at our existing business, all the business units, we have a disciplined eye right now that if they have proven to us that they can execute and deliver the great margins, We do expect them to grow, but we're being extremely disciplined on the pricing. And we're saying either upper margin, supply chain is in our favor, go for it. And we might lose something, and that's okay because there's plenty of opportunity out there, and the indices that we have are indicating it's not going to let up. In certain business units where they've had some challenges in the past, we're making tough calls and pulling back and really focusing in on ODR. In one particular branch, we had a we looked at what they were doing with the GCR side, and we just said, you know what, what if we just deploy the SG and A dollars over to ODR?

You're really killing it on that side of the equation. And let's back off the GCR. So to recap, where we're performing and performing well, we expect to see expansion. Where we're not performing well, we're actually going to contract. And I think that's smart and strategic.

And then moving back to ODR, continue the forward growth in every location on the ODR front. The nice thing about ODR is just besides it being very high margin and cash flow is much better, it's just not human capital intensive compared to building a new building. It just doesn't require as many people. And that, the labor conditions out there, we think it's just a smart play.

Speaker 9

Okay. And just the mention of cash flow being better on the ODR side of the business, and I know you discussed this earlier in the call, but what does cash flow look like over the next twelve months? Because if you look at 2019, operating cash flow was roughly a negative $1,000,000 then you had a huge 2020 at $40,000,000 then year to date it's negative $17,000,000 So you sum all that up, it averages about $7,000,000 which isn't very good conversion on the EBITDA you've reported. So what does that look like going forward? What do you aspire to?

Speaker 3

Yeah. So that's where we kinda went took the time to go through the detail that we really have the fluctuations in our billing cycle and how we do work with regards to overbills and underbills. And so the best way

Speaker 8

to model this is, you know,

Speaker 3

kind of laid out is you need to just you know, what's the the targeted adjusted EBITDA? And from there, you know, for example, for q for q three, we had, you know, the tax tax of 1.6. We had interest of about point five. We had debt around 2.1 and CapEx running around point three. So if you look at, you know, those kind of impacts to cash against the adjusted EBITDA, that basically kinda will give you a ballpark figure of cash before working capital adjustments.

And it's the working capital adjustment piece, as I spent the time going through that, you know, it's we have insight internally, but we're not giving guidance on that, and it's too difficult. There's not enough information for investors necessary to model that fluctuations in some of those accounts.

Speaker 2

Mike, I just want to comment on just John Holt asked a question earlier about claims and where we stand. We did consume a lot of cash during that claim period. Or those projects, as we were working through them, they were delayed, and we're obviously seeking recovery to get that cash back into the balance sheet or onto the balance sheet. So that's another thing to be thinking about. The good news is if you look at the business over the past eighteen, twenty four months, we haven't had any new major claims.

All of what we suffered in the past was some decisions on jobs that just went south, not because of us, but we were caught up in just problems with the owner or problems with the general contractor and other specialty contractors. We had to lay out that cash years ago. But this past eighteen to twenty four months, we're not seeing that. And I think it's the discipline we've put back into the business. So we got the recovery of the cash from the old claims that is a future period activity.

But also, we're not seeing that outlay that we saw in the past because we're just being a lot smarter over the past twenty four months of what we're taking on. I hope that helps.

Speaker 9

Well, I appreciate the variability from quarter to quarter modeling working capital. But operating cash flow is converted at about a 30% rate to EBITDA if we look at 2019, 2020 and year to date. I would think that you'd be able to put a metric out there, hey, we want to convert at a 50%, 60%, 70% rate. Maybe we outsiders can't model that. But I would suggest that you maybe put a number out there because the one thing missing at the story right now is the operating cash flow year to date has been very poor, as you've outlined.

So that's just a suggestion. Last question. You filed a shelf in the September. Was that just re upping an existing shelf? Or would you actually issue shares at these levels?

Speaker 3

Yeah. That was what I would just call it kind of good housekeeping in the sense of putting up, a shelf. We had warrants that were issued under the other shelf, and so there was no availability on it. So we needed to put, you know, just to have something out there.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Mike.

Speaker 0

Our next question is a follow-up from John Hold with Longmeadow Investors. Please proceed.

Speaker 7

Thanks. Yeah. Thanks. I just want to sort of flip that last question on its head a little bit. Given the I mean, you're in a net cash position, and and, you know, depending on what metric you look at, I mean, I think we I think our valuation is, in many cases, a third to even more even less than the pub big public peers.

Are you in a position at this point where you could modify your credit agreement to allow yourself to buy back stock?

Speaker 3

No. At this time, we're still we're still in a position of keeping with our agreement with the bank.

Speaker 7

That changed at some point? I mean, what what

Speaker 0

I agree. It could.

Speaker 3

Yeah. We're I mean, we're not even a year. Yeah. We're not even a year into, you know, the agreement. So it's definitely something we could consider going forward.

But at this point, we're new with the relationship.

Speaker 7

K. Thanks.

Speaker 0

Our next question is a follow-up from Chip Brown with Stifel.

Speaker 6

I wanted based on the two prior questions, with the negative impacts to working cap this quarter or during the nine trailing nine months, was that predominantly with the over under billing? Was that just obviously, with that the GCR segment. So so we expect those negative impacts any any any light on the negative impacts from the segment or the service segment, or is that predominantly just all on the construction and install side?

Speaker 5

On the

Speaker 3

work side? Mean Say it. You want it specific to each segment?

Speaker 6

Yes. Specific. I mean, you guys don't break out the working cap or assets in terms of segments. So with the negative impact at the September to working cap on the over under billing side, that's obviously just is that GCR driven? And then for the following Primarily.

Speaker 8

What primarily? Okay. It's primarily. What are

Speaker 6

the capital constraints on the service side then with the expansions, like, in in Nashville, and what should we expect going forward? I mean, you had made comments in the past, Charlie, that I appreciate that you had grown too fast. Where is the fine line there? Yes. Well,

Speaker 2

okay. So when you look at the GCR work, right, we've taken on some very large projects in the past, and we still will continue to take on large projects in the business units that have a great track record of execution. And those jobs could cause fluctuations in working capital and our cash position as projects start up. We look to get to that overbuild position. That's a primary goal.

But what we have done over the past eighteen months is we've actually backed off those big jobs, and we're taking on smaller work. And the opportunity to get to that overbuild position doesn't necessarily it's not as great compared to a very large scale project. So and we by the way, we think from a midterm, long term health perspective, that's the smart way to go about it. The big jobs, if they're going well, it's great. But if they go the other way, it could really impact our position.

When you have the smaller projects and we're talking a 1,000,000 to $5,000,000 jobs versus a 40,000,000 or $50,000,000 contract. You don't see the fluctuations. We're able to stay ahead of it. They don't tend to get in trouble. You get in and get out.

It's kind of just a smarter business platform. On the ODR segment, just generally what we're doing there is we actually ask for a 50% down payment on some of the deals. And once in a while, we get it. I think the smarter buyers basically say, No, I'm not going to do that. Basically, that's the larger sophisticated customers.

But the smaller customers, they'll agree to that 50% upfront payment. So we're constantly pushing for improved cash position. And the other thing, Chip, I just want to reinforce that Nashville opportunity is a very, very small investment. We just think it was a very smart play. Our largest sector is health care.

And Nashville is the hotbed of where decisions are made for the for profit health care customer base. So we're really excited. The individual that we actually brought on was someone who worked for me at my former company, and he's done an excellent job in the number of months he's been here. And I actually like I said earlier, he's ahead of his sales projection. And back to the positive cash flow, I think by the early part of next year, we'll definitely be positive.

I mean, the sales are there. It's great to see what he's already delivered. And it's a very high margin. So we're pretty pumped up about it.

Speaker 6

Appreciate it. So as you as we approach your target of in 2025 with a fifty fifty mix with service and install, can we expect the working cap to kinda smooth out? I mean, just for modeling purposes. I hope that makes sense.

Speaker 3

Yeah. So it makes sense. Because right now, we're sitting like like Charlie mentioned, the we're, you know, 70% our GCR, and that's where we see the fluctuations more so with regards to the the life cycle of the cash over the project. So, yes, as we as we get more towards the, ODR, it will bounce out.

Speaker 6

And what can we expect in terms of capital outlay from the ODR perspective? Any light there?

Speaker 2

It's actually a very small capital outlay, right, because when you're looking at an ODR business, you're basically talking about a service tech in a van. And he's got some equipment in that van, right? So we have the leases that come through. And from a people perspective, we are adding staff in terms of sales and management as we grow that business. But it's not as intensive compared to construction with CapEx.

Yes. I mean, the GCR side, we have plants that produce sheet metal. And obviously, that's big outlays from the standpoint of maintaining those plants, although I think we work that very efficiently. But the OER business really doesn't require that kind of plant activity. So it's just not as intensive, which is another reason why we like it so much.

Speaker 6

Great. Thank you.

Speaker 0

We have reached the end of our question and answer session. I would like to turn it back over to management for closing comments.

Speaker 2

Well, listen, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. We're obviously very proud of the quarter. It's a clear indication of what we can do as we go forward. We appreciate everybody's patience with management as we continue to work through some challenging times, but we're starting to see the fruits of our labor.

And I think our strategy is spot on, And we're going to continue to aggressively execute that. We look forward to meeting with you again with our end of year results. And thank you.

Speaker 0

Thank you. This does conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time, and thank you for your participation.