Executive Summary

Q4 2024 delivered modest top-line growth with total net revenue of $43.9M (+6% YoY) and materially improved profitability versus last year (operating loss narrowed to $2.8M from $9.7M; adjusted EBITDA swung to +$1.2M from a loss) .
Avocados were the clear highlight: 4.6M lbs sold in Q4 at $1.92/lb, capping a record 15.1M lbs in FY24; management reaffirmed a multi-year plan to add 1,000 acres by FY27 to drive EBITDA growth .
FY25 guidance: fresh lemon volumes 5.0–5.5M cartons; avocado volumes 7–8M lbs (lower vs FY24 due to alternate bearing); Harvest JV distributions projected $8M in FY25 with total proceeds of $180M through FY2030 .
Strategic alternatives continued with “significant interest,” and water monetization remains an emerging catalyst; a dividend of $0.075/share was declared ahead of results .
Street consensus from S&P Global was unavailable; beats/misses relative to estimates cannot be determined (S&P Global data pull unavailable).

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Record avocado performance: “15.1 million pounds of avocados sold in 2024” and 4.6M lbs in Q4 at $1.92/lb; management emphasized expanding avocado acreage by 1,000 acres through FY27 to drive “significant EBITDA growth” .
Diversification and asset monetization optionality: management highlighted Harvest JV momentum and anticipated “meaningful water monetization transactions in fiscal year 2025,” strengthening non-operating cash flow visibility .
Profitability improvement: Q4 operating loss narrowed to $2.8M (vs $9.7M LY) and adjusted EBITDA improved to $1.2M (vs -$1.3M LY), reflecting margin discipline and segment mix shift toward avocados .

What Went Wrong

Lemon softness in Q4: fresh packed lemon sales fell to $8.4M vs $11.3M LY; cartons sold declined to ~470K and price per carton dropped to $17.95 vs $20.39 LY, driven by weather and delayed desert harvest .
Specialty citrus and oranges mixed: specialty citrus revenue fell to $3.6M (vs $6.5M LY); orange price per carton fell to $18.99 (vs $28.32 LY), with lower high-value mix offsetting volume .
Operating segments saw pressure in lemons: Q4 agribusiness segment data show operating losses in Fresh Lemons (-$1.55M) and Lemon Packing (-$1.93M), even as Avocados posted $7.06M segment operating income .

Financial Results

Metric	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$41.433	$63.305	$43.861
Diluted EPS ($USD)	$(0.20)	$0.35	$(0.11)
Operating Income ($USD Millions)	$(9.690)	$8.993	$(2.751)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$(1.311)	$13.791	$1.200

Margin	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Operating Margin (%)	-23.4% (calc from revenue & op inc)	14.2% (calc from revenue & op inc)	-6.3% (calc from revenue & op inc)
Net Income Margin (%) (NI attributable)	-8.3% (calc)	10.4% (calc)	-4.2% (calc)
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)	-3.2% (calc)	21.8% (calc)	2.7% (calc)

Segment breakdown (external revenue and segment operating results):

Segment	Q4 2023 Revenue ($MM)	Q4 2023 Segment Op Inc ($MM)	Q4 2024 Revenue ($MM)	Q4 2024 Segment Op Inc ($MM)
Fresh Lemons	$25.443	$(0.508)	$24.073	$(1.548)
Lemon Packing	$3.030	$(2.366)	$1.375	$(1.928)
Avocados	$0.000	N/A	$8.869	$7.064
Other Agribusiness	$11.612	$1.778	$8.161	$0.856
Total Agribusiness	$40.085	$(2.809)	$42.478	$2.658
Other Operations	$1.348	N/A	$1.383	N/A

KPIs (volumes/pricing):

KPI	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Fresh lemon cartons (U.S. packed)	~550K @ $20.39/carton	~1,400K @ $18.43/carton	~470K @ $17.95/carton
Brokered/other lemon sales ($MM)	$13.2	$9.8	$14.6
Avocado pounds sold (MM)	—	8.855 @ $1.57/lb	4.622 @ $1.92/lb
Orange cartons sold	69K @ $28.32/carton	43K @ $26.98/carton	91K @ $18.99/carton
Specialty citrus (40-lb equivalents)	75K @ $32.64	25K @ $22.00	8K @ $42.63
Farm management revenue ($MM)	$3.144	$3.202	$2.916

Note: Margins are calculated from reported revenue and operating/net income figures in cited documents.

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Fresh lemon volume (cartons)	FY2024	5.0–5.5M (Q2)	4.5–5.0M (Q3)	Lowered
Avocado volume (lbs)	FY2024	9.0–10.0M (Q2)	14.5–15.5M (Q3)	Raised
Harvest distributions ($MM)	FY2024	$18 (Q2)	$15 actual (Q4)	Lowered vs prior projection
Fresh lemon volume (cartons)	FY2025	N/A	5.0–5.5M	New
Avocado volume (lbs)	FY2025	N/A	7.0–8.0M (alt-bearing year)	New
Harvest distributions ($MM)	FY2025–2030	$180 total, annual schedule updated (Q2)	$180 total confirmed; FY25 $8; FY26 $18; FY27 $34; FY28 $41; FY29 $22; FY30 $42	Maintained total; schedule reaffirmed
Long-term non-GAAP EBITDA outlook	FY2030	Raised to $45–$55M (Q2)	Strong EBITDA outlook reiterated; avocado expansion plan unchanged	Maintained qualitative stance

Dividend: $0.075 per share declared 12/17/2024, payable 1/15/2025 to holders of record 12/30/2024 .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q2 2024 (Previous Mentions)	Q3 2024 (Previous Mentions)	Q4 2024 (Current Period)	Trend
Avocado expansion and economics	Plan to add 1,000 acres over 3 years; EBITDA LT raised to $45–$55M by FY2030	Guidance raised; strategic harvest timing; strong pricing tailwinds	FY25 7–8M lbs (down YoY for alt-bearing); reiterated 1,000-acre expansion by FY27; on path to 30M lbs by 2029	Positive structural, near-term cyclical dip
Fresh lemons: utilization and channel mix	Weather-induced lower fresh utilization; cartons/pricing mixed	Pricing improved vs LY; mix still challenged	Q4 utilization ~70% due to weather; foodservice/QSR penetration targeted to lift utilization to ~80%	Improving mix via channel strategy
Water monetization	Fallowing program payments; pursuing stewardship	Continued focus; strategic alternatives include water	Expect “meaningful” Santa Paula Basin transactions; Colorado River fallowing likely extended 25 years; economics $400/acre-foot fallowing ≈ $1.3M	Strengthening monetization visibility
Harvest JV cash flows & expansion	Entitlements raised to 2,050 units; $180M total proceeds; FY24 projected $18M	Phase 2 completed; FY24 distributions projected; JV cash $69.9M	FY24 actual $15M; JV cash $66.9M; FY25 schedule confirmed; bridge capex ahead	Solid execution; minor timing variance
Strategic alternatives	Initiated; pivot away from Chile packinghouse to avocado expansion	Significant interest; OpCo/PropCo considered; multiple strategic interests	Continued interest; strong balance sheet; process ongoing	Ongoing, potential catalyst

Management Commentary

“Our achievement of solid lemon revenue and record avocado production, reaching 15.1 million pounds of avocados sold in 2024… reinforces our strategic decision to expand our avocado production by 1,000 acres through fiscal year 2027, a transformation that is expected to drive significant EBITDA growth.” — Harold Edwards, CEO .
“We expect fresh lemon volumes to be in the range of 5 million to 5.5 million cartons for fiscal year 2025 and expect avocado volumes to be in the range of 7 million to 8 million pounds for fiscal year 2025.” — Harold Edwards, CEO .
“Our net debt as of October 31, 2024, was $37.6 million… [the JV] had $66.9 million of cash… We consider this approximately $33.5 million as an offset to our net debt position.” — Harold Edwards, CEO .
“Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2024 was $1.2 million, compared to a loss of $1.3 million in the same period of fiscal year 2023.” — Mark Palamountain, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

Water monetization: Colorado River fallowing yields $400 per acre-foot; with 600 acres fallowed and 5.5 acre-feet per acre, ~ $1.3M economics; Santa Paula Basin transactions expected to be “significantly more valuable” than Colorado River rates .
Lemon utilization strategy: Targeting QSR/foodservice channels to lift fresh utilization toward ~80%, improving economics despite lower average price; recruiting >0.5M cartons from third-party growers .
Avocado trajectory: Multi-year plan toward 30M lbs by 2029 with high-density plantings (≈180 trees/acre), improved irrigation (pressurized lines) and ag-tech (drone sprays); operating profit per acre $15K–$20K vs lemons $2K–$5K .
Harvest JV: Bridge construction planned; JV self-funding capex after ending revolver; distribution timing not yet set beyond FY24 .
Regulatory context: Department of Interior/Bureau of Reclamation targeting ~1/3 reduction in Colorado River consumptive use; LMNR’s Class 3 rights positioned to benefit from fallowing programs .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable at time of analysis due to API request limits. As a result, we cannot determine beat/miss versus Street expectations and recommend revisiting when S&P Global data is accessible.
Given the seasonal pattern (Q2/Q3 stronger; Q1/Q4 softer) and material YoY improvement in Q4 operating loss and adjusted EBITDA, estimate revisions may focus on: higher avocado-driven EBITDA in on-year cycles, and modest lemon margin recovery as foodservice penetration improves .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Avocado-led transformation is the central earnings driver; near-term FY25 volume dip is a cyclical alternate-bearing effect, not a strategic setback. The path to ~30M lbs by 2029 with superior per-acre economics supports medium-term EBITDA compounding .
Lemon profitability should improve structurally via channel mix (QSR/foodservice) and better utilization; recruiting third-party volume adds operating leverage even if average price moderates .
Non-operating cash flows (Harvest JV, water monetization) enhance balance sheet resilience and optionality; the JV’s cash position and distribution schedule provide visibility despite timing variability .
Strategic alternatives are a live catalyst across ag operations, real estate, and water assets; any transaction or framework (e.g., OpCo/PropCo) could re-rate the equity if value unlocks are credible .
Actionable short-term: monitor FY25 avocado pricing (recent industry commentary suggests tailwinds) and Santa Paula Basin water transactions for valuation benchmarks; harvest timing can materially impact quarterly margins .
Medium-term thesis: execution on avocado expansion and sustained Harvest distributions support a diversified EBITDA stack; expect multi-year margin normalization in lemons and rising adjusted EBITDA as new acres bear fruit .
Risk watch: weather impacts on fruit quality/utilization, international avocado supply/pricing dynamics, and regulatory outcomes on Colorado River allocations remain key variables .

Sources: Q4 2024 8-K and press release ; Q4 2024 earnings call transcript ; Prior quarter materials Q3 2024 and call –; Q2 2024 – and call –; Dividend PR .

Estimates disclaimer: S&P Global consensus data was unavailable at time of analysis; revisit for beat/miss determination.

Limoneira CO (LMNR)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary