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    LOCKHEED MARTIN (LMT)

    LMT Q2 2025: $1.8B Charges & $4.6B IRS Claim Overshadow F-35 Demand

    Reported on Jul 22, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$460.53Last close (Jul 21, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$422.75Open (Jul 22, 2025)
    Price Change
    $-37.78(-8.20%)
    • F-35 Strength and Demand: The F-35 remains the only fifth-generation fighter produced in the free world and has already proven its combat effectiveness, with strong domestic and international demand supporting a robust backlog and future deliveries.
    • Enhanced Program Oversight and Risk Management: Management has implemented a more rigorous review system with senior leadership engagement to de-risk troubled programs, providing increased transparency and control over cost risks, which can translate into improved future profitability.
    • Positive Cash Flow Prospects and Backlog Expansion: The company expects significant cash inflows from forthcoming F-35 Lot 18/19 awards and an expanding backlog—including potential future Golden Dome related contracts—supporting sustained free cash flow and financial stability.
    • Significant Legacy Program Losses: Lockheed Martin incurred $1,800,000,000 in charges this quarter from legacy programs—including a $950,000,000 loss on a classified Aero program—with additional losses on programs like CMHP and TUHP, raising concerns over recurring profit pressures.
    • Substantial Tax Liability Uncertainty: The IRS has asserted an additional income tax liability of $4,600,000,000, which, even after a minimal interest charge of $100,000,000, contributes to uncertainty around future earnings and free cash flow.
    • F-35 and Defense Funding Risks: There are questions regarding DOD’s shifting procurement priorities—with indications of reduced F-35 units and competitive pressures from next-generation platforms—coupled with uncertainties in government budget processes, all of which could impact future order flow and production stability.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Cash Flow Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023

    Net cash provided by operating activities increased from $1,564 million to $1,635 million; net change in cash and cash equivalents improved from –$107 million to $1,348 million

    The significant improvement in cash flow was driven primarily by the issuance of $2 billion in long-term debt, a factor absent in Q1 2023, which boosted financing inflows. Additionally, changes in working capital (Accounts Payable increased from $1,217 million to $1,301 million, and Contract Liabilities decreased more significantly from $152 million to $445 million) and higher capital expenditures (up from $294 million to $378 million) further influenced the cash flow dynamics, coupled with increased share repurchases ($500 million to $1 billion).

    Cash Flow Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024

    Operating cash flow dropped from approximately $1.6 billion to $1.4 billion and free cash flow declined from $1.3 billion to $955 million

    In Q1 2025, cash flows suffered due to an increase in contract assets (affecting cash conversion timing), higher insurance costs, and different timing in employee-related accrual payments, which were only partly offset by a decrease in accounts receivable and a rise in accounts payable. Furthermore, higher software expenditures further reduced free cash flow relative to Q1 2024.

    Balance Sheet Q1 2024 vs December 2023

    Cash and cash equivalents increased from $1,442 million to $2,790 million; contract assets rose from $13,183 million to $14,050 million; accounts payable increased from $2,312 million to $3,523 million; long-term debt increased from $17,291 million to $19,250 million

    The balance sheet in Q1 2024 improved significantly due to strong operating cash flows (with $1,635 million generated) combined with a $2 billion debt issuance boosting cash balances. This was accompanied by higher contract assets and accounts payable reflecting increased production and revenue recognition activities, while share repurchases and dividend payments affected retained earnings and contract liabilities, and long-term debt rose accordingly.

    Balance Sheet Q1 2025 vs December 2024

    Contract assets increased from $12,957 million to $14,677 million; accounts payable rose from $2,222 million to $3,821 million; cash and cash equivalents decreased from $2,483 million to $1,803 million; long-term debt decreased from $19,627 million to $18,661 million

    In Q1 2025, the balance sheet reflects timing and payment impacts: Contract assets and accounts payable increased due to the timing of contract milestones and supplier payments, while cash was reduced significantly by dividend payments ($796 million) and share repurchases ($750 million) along with higher software expenditures. Additionally, a decrease in long-term debt indicates active debt repayments during the quarter.

    Income Statement Q1 2024 vs Q1 2023

    Net sales increased by $2.1 billion (14%) from $15.1 billion to $17.2 billion; operating profit remained nearly flat around $2.03 billion; net earnings declined from $1.69 billion to $1.55 billion (9% drop); cost of sales increased by $2.1 billion (16%)

    Q1 2024 saw strong sales growth, largely due to higher volumes in Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space segments (including an extra week adding to sales), but operating profit was flat because of a $100 million reach-forward loss in the Missiles segment and rising input costs. Elevated interest expense (rising from $202 million to $255 million) and a significant drop in non-service FAS pension income also led to lower net earnings, despite the sales boost.

    Income Statement Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024

    Sales increased by 4% from $17.2 billion to $18.0 billion; consolidated operating profit increased by 17% from $2.0 billion to $2.4 billion; net earnings rose from $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion; diluted EPS increased from $6.39 to $7.28

    In Q1 2025, improved performance is evident with a 4% increase in sales driven by higher volumes in most segments, notably the 50% operating profit increase in Missiles and Fire Control due to the absence of a $100 million loss seen in Q1 2024. This translated into a 17% boost in operating profit and corresponding net earnings improvements, while EPS benefited both from higher earnings and the impact of share repurchases reducing outstanding shares.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Sales

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $73.75 billion to $74.75 billion

    no prior guidance

    Segment Operating Profit

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $6.6 billion to $6.7 billion, with an implied midpoint margin of 9%

    no prior guidance

    EPS

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $21.70 to $22.00

    no prior guidance

    Free Cash Flow

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    $6.6 billion to $6.8 billion

    no prior guidance

    Pension Contribution

    FY 2025

    No pension contribution

    No pension contribution expected

    no change

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    F-35 Program Demand/Production/Modernization

    Mentioned consistently in Q1 2025 , Q4 2024 , and Q3 2024 with strong international orders, robust delivery expectations, and ongoing modernization efforts.

    In Q2 2025, strong international demand is emphasized with new orders (UK, Belgium), completed TR3 hardware integration, new software rollout, and efforts to integrate NGAD technologies.

    Consistently strong with continuous modernization; sentiment remains highly positive and focused on future growth.

    Backlog Growth and Contract Pipeline

    Addressed in Q1 2025 , Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 emphasizing record backlogs and robust contract prospects.

    Q2 2025 highlights a $167 billion backlog, expectations for record growth in the second half, and expansion of the contract pipeline (including F-35 Lot 18-19 and Golden Dome discussions).

    Consistent robustness with further growth; overall positive impact on future orders and sustained demand.

    Technological Innovation and Advanced Defense Capabilities

    Consistently discussed in Q1 2025 , Q4 2024 , and Q3 2024 with focus on NGAD, AI, autonomy, hypersonics and digital integration.

    In Q2 2025, innovation is reaffirmed with enhanced combat effectiveness, TR3 integration, hypersonic weapon development, and improved missile defense capabilities.

    Steady and sustained emphasis on advanced technologies; sentiment remains upbeat with continuous capability enhancements.

    Financial Performance, Cash Flow, and Profitability Management

    Discussed in Q1 2025 , Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 , noting strong sales growth, robust free cash flow, and healthy margins.

    Q2 2025 reports $18.2 billion in sales, free cash flow usage issues due to working capital challenges from delayed F-35 awards and tariff impacts, and significant charges affecting margins.

    Overall strong performance continues but with increased focus on margin headwinds and working capital timing challenges; mixed sentiment.

    Legacy Program Losses and Associated Risks

    Addressed in Q1 2025 with a $100 million loss in the MFC segment , in Q4 2024 with significant charges , and in Q3 2024 with detailed discussions on recalibration and risk.

    Q2 2025 reveals $1.8 billion in legacy losses across multiple programs (including Turkish Utility, Canadian Maritime, and Aeronautics classified), with enhanced reviews and corrective actions initiated.

    Increasingly concerning with larger recognized losses and stronger corrective measures; sentiment is more cautionary and risk-aware.

    Government Funding, Policy, and Budget Uncertainty

    Discussed in Q1 2025 , Q4 2024 and Q3 2024 relating to continuing resolutions and funding delays affecting the F-35 program.

    Q2 2025 covers adjustments in F-35 funding (House increasing orders despite administration’s request), Golden Dome initiative discussions, and related IRS tax issues impacting government funding dynamics.

    Consistent uncertainty persists with nuanced optimism (e.g., higher congressional numbers) but overall remains an area of significant attention.

    Supply Chain and Tariff Challenges

    In Q1 2025, there is discussion on tariff protections and domestic sourcing , while Q4 2024 mentions improvements in supply chain performance ; Q3 2024 did not include this topic.

    Q2 2025 specifically highlights tariff impacts ($100 million) and a $600 million working capital headwind due to delayed F-35 awards, underscoring increased short-term challenges.

    Emerging as a more critical concern in the current period compared to earlier calls; sentiment indicates heightened awareness and caution.

    Enhanced Program Oversight and Risk Management

    Q3 2024 and Q4 2024 discussed steps to improve oversight in classified programs with recalibration measures in place.

    In Q2 2025, Lockheed Martin details enhanced oversight measures including reconstituted review teams, increased senior management participation, and companywide sharing of lessons learned to mitigate risks.

    Continued and increasingly rigorous focus on oversight and risk management; proactive measures indicate a strategic shift from reactive to preventative actions.

    Software Integration and F-35 Technology Refresh Challenges

    Covered in Q1 2025 , Q4 2024 , and Q3 2024 with discussions on TR3 progress, release phases, and integration challenges.

    Q2 2025 reports that TR3 hardware integration is complete and new software has been released to the fleet, indicating progress in overcoming earlier challenges.

    Positive momentum with ongoing progress; the emphasis has shifted from challenges to successful integration and fielding of upgrades.

    Tax Liability and Regulatory Compliance Risks

    Not mentioned in Q1 2025, Q4 2024, or Q3 2024 (N/A).

    Q2 2025 introduces a significant IRS dispute regarding a $4.6 billion tax liability and related interest accrual, marking a new and notable regulatory compliance risk.

    New and potentially adverse development; added risk with a sizable tax liability that could impact future cash flows and financial planning.

    Margin Pressure and Fixed-Price Contract Risks

    Q1 2025 touched on tariff and fixed-price recovery mechanisms ; Q4 2024 discussed margin declines and fixed-price contract challenges ; Q3 2024 indirectly addressed aggressive bidding practices and cost management.

    Q2 2025 highlights significant margin pressure due to large charges (e.g., $1.6 billion via Skunk Works and Sikorsky) and emphasizes risks inherent in fixed-price contracts, prompting reevaluation with customers.

    Continued concern with increased emphasis in Q2 2025; sentiment is more cautious due to heightened charges and reassessment of fixed-price contract risks.

    1. Program Risk
      Q: Derisk Arrow and onerous contract?
      A: Management explained they’ve reconstituted their review team with deeper oversight and tighter controls to manage risk, ensuring that future losses are capped and issues are quickly identified.

    2. Cash Impact
      Q: Why billion-dollar charge and cash bridge?
      A: They clarified the large charge reflects multi‐year fixed commitments; expect about $500M cash usage in 2025, stepping down to roughly $400M in 2026.

    3. Tax & FCF
      Q: Explain $4.6B tax and $6B FCF?
      A: They attributed the hefty tax liability to an accounting method change while free cash flow guidance incorporates program charges, working capital timing, and a $1B pension next year.

    4. F‑35 Role
      Q: How critical is the F‑35 today?
      A: Management stressed the F‑35’s essential role in modern warfare with proven combat success and strong international demand, ensuring its continued prominence for U.S. and allied forces.

    5. Golden Dome Outlook
      Q: What’s the Golden Dome potential?
      A: While contracts remain in discussion, the opportunity is promising as backlog growth from related munitions and manufacturing investments supports future government initiatives.

    6. Margin Sustainability
      Q: Are segment margins sustainable?
      A: They indicated that once one-off charges are normalized, margins—particularly in key segments—should improve as ongoing monitoring and performance reviews take effect.

    7. Data Rights
      Q: Need to sell F‑35 technical data rights?
      A: Management noted that all necessary data for sustainment is already provided, and strong demand for the aircraft remains unaffected by any changes in data rights.

    Research analysts covering LOCKHEED MARTIN.