Executive Summary

Q1 2025 delivered strong top-line and cash generation: revenue $5.44B (+28% YoY), Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA $1.87B, DCF $1.27B .
Guidance reconfirmed: FY25 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA $6.5–$7.0B and DCF $4.1–$4.6B; production forecast 47–48 mt for 2025 with Stage 3 Trains 1–3 targeted in-year .
Significant operational milestones: Substantial Completion of Corpus Christi Stage 3 Train 1 in March; 4,000th cargo produced and exported .
Capital allocation catalysts: $350M buybacks (1.6M shares) in Q1 and $300M debt repaid; $0.50 quarterly dividend declared for Q1 (paid May 19, 2025) .
Results beat S&P Global consensus: revenue beat by ~$0.49B* and EPS beat by ~$1.09*; management reiterated insulation from tariff volatility via contracted FOB portfolio . Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Stage 3 execution ahead of schedule: Train 1 achieved Substantial Completion in March; project 82.5% complete with procurement 99.8% locked, mitigating tariff risk. “2025 is off to an outstanding start…” – Jack Fusco .
Commercial and optimization strength: higher total margins per MMBtu YoY drove EBITDA growth (+6% YoY to $1.87B) .
Platform reliability and scale: recognized record volumes; 4,000th cargo milestone underscores operational excellence .

What Went Wrong

GAAP net income down 30% YoY to $353M, primarily due to ~$277M unfavorable non-cash derivative fair value changes (including IPM) versus Q1 2024 .
Market netback compression vs early-Q1 highs; management highlighted seasonality and maintenance at Sabine Pass Trains 3–4 reducing mid-year production .
Elevated earnings volatility from derivative accounting (mark-to-market on long-dated supply contracts without corresponding LNG sale mark-to-market), impacting GAAP optics despite stable underlying contracted cash flows .

Financial Results

Multi-period comparison (prior two quarters and current)

Metric	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$3.76	$4.44	$5.44
Net Income Attributable ($USD Billions)	$0.89	$0.98	$0.35
Diluted EPS ($)	$3.93	$4.33	$1.57
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)	$1.48	$1.58	$1.87

Year-over-year (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024)

Metric	Q1 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$4.25	$5.44
Net Income Attributable ($USD Billions)	$0.50	$0.35
Diluted EPS ($)	$2.13	$1.57
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)	$1.77	$1.87
LNG Cargoes (Count)	166	168
LNG Volumes Exported (TBtu)	602	609

Margins

Metric	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
EBITDA Margin %	34.90%*	45.11%*	23.69%*
Net Income Margin %	12.14%*	21.92%*	6.51%*
Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Revenue breakdown (Q1 2025)

Component	Q1 2025 ($USD Millions)
LNG Revenues	$5,305
Regasification Revenues	$34
Other Revenues	$105
Total Revenues	$5,444

KPIs (volumes recognition detail, Q1 2025)

KPI	Q1 2025
LNG Cargoes Exported (Count)	168
LNG Volumes Exported (TBtu)	609
LNG Volumes Loaded (TBtu)	608
Total Volumes Recognized (TBtu)	614 (incl. 5 TBtu commissioning)
Third-Party LNG Recognized (TBtu)	7

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)	FY 2025	$6.5–$7.0	$6.5–$7.0	Maintained
Distributable Cash Flow ($USD Billions)	FY 2025	$4.1–$4.6	$4.1–$4.6	Maintained
CQP Distributions per Common Unit ($)	FY 2025	N/A	$3.25–$3.35	Introduced/Confirmed
LNG Production (mt)	FY 2025	N/A	47–48	Introduced
Dividend per Share ($)	Q1 2025	$0.50 (Q4 payable Feb 21, 2025)	$0.50 (paid May 19, 2025)	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
Stage 3 execution	Raised/tightened FY24 guidance; Stage 3 progressing; first LNG expected by end-2024	Train 1 Substantial Completion in March; expectation for first three trains operational by end-2025	Accelerating execution
Tariffs/macro volatility	Noted improving guidance amid price moderation	Management engaged in DC; procurement locked; FOB contract flexibility mitigates impacts	Risk managed/contained
Europe demand/security	FY24: Europe pulling fewer cargoes vs Asia	Q1: Europe LNG imports +23% YoY; U.S. LNG 57% share; vulnerability due to storage/pipe flow cessation	Europe re-accelerating LNG call
China and Asia dynamics	Contracting and market maturation	China LNG demand weaker; pipeline ramp (Power of Siberia); mature markets (Taiwan/Korea) growing	Mixed Asia; robust longer term
Permitting reform	FERC/DOE processes ongoing for expansions	Admin focus on permitting durability; no rehearing on 8&9; confidence in approvals	Improving permitting backdrop
Capital allocation (20/20 Vision)	Buybacks/dividends raised, debt repaid	>$1.3B deployed in Q1; active buybacks; debt repayment; dividend sustained	Continued execution

Management Commentary

“Progress on Stage 3 continues to advance on an accelerated schedule, reinforcing our confidence in having the first three trains operational by the end of 2025.” – Jack Fusco (CEO) .
“Looking at curves today, netbacks have come down recently and are hovering around $5 to $6 for the balance of 2025… we locked in another $100 million of incremental margin from optimization.” – Zach Davis (CFO) .
“The destination flexibility inherent in U.S. LNG contracts… is a significant mitigant of impacts to physical flows of volume… we are uniquely insulated from volatility in the short-term market via our highly contracted business model.” – Jack Fusco (CEO) .
“Europe is once again putting itself… into a difficult position… we may find ourselves in a position to help out once again.” – Anatol Feygin (CCO) .

Q&A Highlights

Contracting environment and trade dynamics: robust engagement; selective partnering to capture premium; >90% long-term contracted posture for future FIDs .
Permitting durability: administration focused on reform; DOE study and FERC policy changes in progress; 8&9 received FERC permit with no rehearing .
Guidance cadence and margin sensitivity: mid-range confidence maintained; minimal open volume (50–75 TBtu); $1/margin change ≈ $50–$75M EBITDA impact .
Seasonality and maintenance: do not annualize Q1; Q2 expected lowest production due to shoulder season and Sabine Pass maintenance .
Funding/liquidity: ample cash and undrawn term loan capacity; equity-funding Stage 3, with potential later draws for midscale 8&9 .

Estimates Context

Metric	S&P Global Consensus* (Q1 2025)	Actual (Q1 2025)
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$4.95*	$5.44
Primary EPS ($)	$2.61*	$1.57 (GAAP diluted)
Notes:

Cheniere’s reported GAAP diluted EPS was $1.57; S&P Global “Primary EPS” may reflect a normalized methodology differing from reported GAAP EPS, explaining the larger “actual” value shown in consensus feeds. Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Implication: Results were a clear top-line beat vs consensus; EPS optics are affected by derivative-related non-GAAP/normalized treatments and GAAP mark-to-market effects, suggesting models may need to adjust for Stage 3 commissioning and optimization impacts . Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

Revenue strength and optimization offset margin compression: $5.44B revenue (+28% YoY) and $1.87B EBITDA, supported by higher margins per MMBtu and downstream optimization .
Guidance intact despite tariff headlines and netback moderation: FY25 EBITDA $6.5–$7.0B and DCF $4.1–$4.6B reaffirmed; limited unsold volume reduces exposure .
Execution catalyst: Stage 3 Train 2 first LNG expected around end-May/early June; three trains targeted operational in 2025, enhancing run-rate production trajectory .
Contracted cash-flow resilience: FOB flexibility and >90% contracted volumes insulate near-term earnings from trade policy gyrations .
Capital returns continue: active buybacks ($350M in Q1) and $0.50 dividend sustained; incremental opportunistic repurchases in April amid volatility .
Watch near-term risks: Q2 shoulder-season and Sabine maintenance likely to compress quarterly EBITDA vs Q1; avoid annualizing Q1 .
Medium-term thesis: permitting momentum (8&9, SPL expansion) and brownfield growth support >60 mtpa platform and durable DCF profile into the early 2030s .

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary