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Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 delivered solid growth with revenues up 18% YoY to $4.44B, net income up 17% YoY to $1.05B, and Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA up 8% YoY to $1.61B, supported by higher per‑MMBtu margins and incremental volumes from Corpus Christi Stage 3 .
  • Distributable Cash Flow guidance was raised to $4.8–$5.2B for FY25 (from $4.4–$4.8B), driven primarily by IRS interim rules on CAMT deferring cash taxes and enabling refunds; EBITDA guidance was reconfirmed at $6.6–$7.0B .
  • Operational milestones continued: substantial completion of Corpus Christi Stage 3 Train 3 in October; Train 4 is pulled forward with first LNG “very soon” and targeted substantial completion by year‑end; Trains 5–7 cadence expected spring/summer/fall 2026 .
  • Capital returns accelerated: ~$1.0B buybacks (4.4M shares) in Q3 and dividend increased >10% to $0.555 per share; balance sheet actions reduced interest expense while strengthening investment‑grade profile .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “Another outstanding quarter” with visible, predictable results; EBITDA and DCF supported by higher margins per MMBtu and incremental volumes from Stage 3 .
  • Project execution ahead of schedule: Train 3 achieved substantial completion in 38 days from first LNG; Train 4 timeline brought forward by over a month .
  • FY25 DCF guidance increased due to CAMT rule changes; management reaffirmed EBITDA guidance and highlighted a robust 2026 production outlook (51–53 mt) with >90% contracted volumes .

What Went Wrong

  • Operational variability from feed gas composition (nitrogen, heavies) required process adjustments (wet mode, solvents, defrosts), creating near‑term production noise .
  • Lower contributions from charter vessel portfolio optimization partially offset margin and volume gains .
  • Q3 Street comparisons mixed: revenue and normalized EPS modestly below consensus*, while EBITDA/EBIT and gross margin exceeded consensus*, reflecting differences between GAAP/non‑GAAP and SPGI standardization [*SPGI estimates].

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$3.763 $4.641 $4.441
Net Income Attributable to Cheniere ($USD Billions)$0.893 $1.626 $1.049
Diluted EPS ($)$3.93 $7.30 $4.75
Income from Operations ($USD Billions)$1.647 $2.530 $1.817
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)$1.483 $1.416 $1.608
Revenue Breakdown ($USD Millions)Q3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
LNG Revenues$3,554 $4,515 $4,302
Regasification Revenues$34 $34 $34
Other Revenues$175 $92 $105
Total Revenues$3,763 $4,641 $4,441
LNG KPIsQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Number of Cargoes158 154 163
Volumes (TBtu)568 550 586
LNG Volumes Loaded (TBtu)568 550 586

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)FY 2025$6.6–$7.0 $6.6–$7.0 Maintained
Distributable Cash Flow ($USD Billions)FY 2025$4.4–$4.8 $4.8–$5.2 Raised

Management attributes the DCF raise primarily to IRS interim CAMT rules deferring certain cash taxes and enabling refunds .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2 and Q-1)Current PeriodTrend
Corpus Christi Stage 3 ExecutionTrain 2 substantial completion (Aug 6); Stage 3 at 86.7% completion by Q2 Train 3 substantial completion; Train 4 first LNG “very soon,” substantial completion targeted by YE; Trains 5–7 in 2026 Accelerating
Feed Gas Composition VariabilityLarge planned maintenance; margin gains despite optimization headwinds Nitrogen/heavies issues handled via wet mode, solvents, defrost; resiliency solutions planned in 2026 Managing headwinds
Capital Allocation (Buybacks/Dividend)Dividend $0.500; buybacks $656M H1; tighten FY25 guidance ~$1.0B buybacks (4.4M shares); dividend to $0.555; 10% annual dividend growth target More aggressive returns
EU/Russia Gas Policy & MarketingContinued European call on LNG; storage deficits; Asia subdued EU bans impacting Russian LNG; LNG volumes flexible; strong EU counterparties; ~24 mt contracted with EU Supportive for U.S. LNG
SPL/CCL Expansion & FID DisciplineSPL Expansion FERC filing updated (two‑phased); Stage 4 pre‑filing Brownfield focus; 90%+ contracted; unlevered ~10% returns; SPL Train 7 post‑FERC in 2026 timeframe Disciplined, staged
2026 OutlookRun‑rate increases and >25B available cash to 2030 (June outlook) 51–53 mt production; 50–52 mt of recognized volumes; 3–5 mt spot window; >90% contracted Visibility improving

Management Commentary

  • Jack Fusco: “The third quarter of 2025 was another outstanding quarter for Cheniere... we remain singularly focused on maintaining our track record of safety and operational excellence, while continuing to develop accretive expansions of our brownfield platform...” .
  • Jack Fusco: “Train 3 went from first LNG to substantial completion in just 38 days… Train 4 now expected to produce first LNG very soon and is on track for substantial completion by the end of this year.” .
  • Zach Davis: “We are reconfirming our 2025 guidance of $6.6–$7.0B EBITDA and raising DCF to $4.8–$5.2B, primarily due to improved cash tax outlook from IRS CAMT rule changes.” .
  • Anatol Feygin: “Global benchmarks remained relatively flat… we expect supply growth to moderate prices and catalyze price‑sensitive demand, particularly in Asia.” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Buybacks pace and authorization: ~$1.7B YTD through Q3; ~215M shares early Q4; plan to seek fourth authorization; initial target ~200M shares outstanding .
  • EU Russian gas ban implications: destination‑flexible volumes; ~24 mt contracted with EU; potential upside in marketing as EU leans further into U.S. LNG .
  • Feed gas variability solutions: operating in wet mode, solvents for exchangers, more defrosts; long‑term resiliency investments scheduled for next year .
  • SPL Train 7 FID gating: deep in FERC process; permit expected later next year; LNTPs possible to lock long‑lead items with hurdle discipline (6–7x Capex/EBITDA; 90% contracted) .
  • Contracting discipline vs “LNG tourists”: stick to 95%+ contracted portfolio with credible counterparties; brownfield focus .

Estimates Context

MetricSPGI ConsensusActualBeat/Miss
Revenue ($USD)$4,484,148,750*$4,441,000,000 Miss*
Primary EPS ($)2.891*2.6547*Miss*
EBITDA ($USD)$1,656,060,940*$2,149,000,000*Beat*
EBIT ($USD)$1,348,882,270*$1,811,000,000*Beat*
Gross Margin (%)49.23%*50.02%*Beat*

Notes: SPGI “Primary EPS,” EBITDA, EBIT, and Gross Margin reflect standardized definitions and may differ from company‑reported non‑GAAP metrics (e.g., Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA of $1.61B) . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Implications: Slight top‑line and normalized EPS misses* contrasted with stronger EBITDA/EBIT/gross margin*, consistent with mix and higher per‑MMBtu margins and Stage 3 ramps; estimate revisions should reflect raised FY25 DCF and operational acceleration .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • FY25 guide: EBITDA maintained at $6.6–$7.0B; DCF raised to $4.8–$5.2B—cash tax relief (CAMT) is a tangible near‑term tailwind .
  • Execution alpha: Stage 3 commissioning accelerating; Train 4 pulled forward; expect Trains 5–7 staggered through 2026—production trajectory supports 2026 record output .
  • Returns and balance sheet: elevated buybacks and dividend increase signal confidence; liability actions lower interest costs and enhance investment‑grade flexibility .
  • Marketing optionality: 3–5 mt spot volumes in 2026 with destination flexibility; EU policy evolution could favor incremental U.S. LNG flows .
  • Operational resiliency: feed gas variability being actively managed; planned investments to harden reliability in 2026 .
  • Discipline on growth: brownfield FIDs only with 90%+ contracted volumes and targeted returns; SPL expansion staged post‑FERC .
  • Near‑term trading: Watch catalysts from Train 4 substantial completion timing and year‑end cargo timing; DCF uplift and dividend increase are positive sentiment drivers .