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Cheniere Energy, Inc. (LNG)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 results: Revenue $4.436B, Net Income $0.977B, Adjusted EBITDA $1.577B; 167 cargoes exported, 604 TBtu, with LNG volumes recognized at 605 TBtu . Year-end 2024 totals: Revenue $15.703B, Adjusted EBITDA $6.155B, DCF $3.73B .
  • 2025 guidance introduced: Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA $6.5–$7.0B and DCF $4.1–$4.6B; >90% forecasted volumes tied to long-term agreements; production forecast 47–48 mt contingent on Stage 3 ramp of Trains 1–3 .
  • Quarter-over-quarter, Adjusted EBITDA margin eased (Q4: 35.6% vs Q3: 39.4%) given international gas price moderation and higher proportion of long-term contracts; volumes were modestly lower YoY (-1% cargoes) but robust operational execution continued .
  • Catalysts: Stage 3 commissioning ahead of schedule (first LNG Dec 2024; first cargo Feb 2025), expected substantial completion of Train 1 by end of Q1 2025; constructive U.S. permitting backdrop; active buyback and dividend program ($0.500/share declared for Q4) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record operational execution and safety; 646 cargoes exported in 2024; CEO highlighted “outstanding financial and operational results… record production” .
  • Stage 3 milestones: first LNG (Dec 2024) and first cargo (Feb 2025); Train 1 substantial completion targeted by end of Q1 2025; overall Stage 3 77.2% complete at year-end .
  • Capital returns and balance sheet: ~$2.3B buybacks in 2024 (~13.8M shares), $800M debt repaid, investment-grade across complex; dividend increased ~15% to $2 annualized and $0.500/share declared for Q4 .

What Went Wrong

  • Profitability compression: Adjusted EBITDA decreased YoY (Q4 down ~4% to $1.577B; FY down ~30%) due to moderated international gas prices and greater long-term contract mix .
  • Derivative mark-to-market impacts: Lower non-cash favorable changes in fair value vs 2023 created unfavorable variances in GAAP net income; Q4 favorable change $91M vs $1.3B in prior year quarter .
  • YoY revenue decline: Q4 revenue down 8% to $4.436B; FY revenue down 23% to $15.703B, reflecting market dynamics and optimization normalization .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Billions)$3.251 $3.763 $4.436
Net Income Attributable to Cheniere ($USD Billions)$0.880 $0.893 $0.977
Diluted EPS ($)$3.84 $3.93 $4.33
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)$1.322 $1.483 $1.577
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)40.7% (calc from $1.322B/$3.251B) 39.4% (calc from $1.483B/$3.763B) 35.6% (calc from $1.577B/$4.436B)
Net Income Margin (%)27.1% (calc from $0.880B/$3.251B) 23.7% (calc from $0.893B/$3.763B) 22.0% (calc from $0.977B/$4.436B)

Segment revenue breakdown

SegmentQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
LNG Revenues ($USD Billions)$3.042 $3.554 $4.266
Regas Revenues ($USD Billions)$0.034 $0.034 $0.033
Other Revenues ($USD Billions)$0.175 $0.175 $0.137
Total Revenues ($USD Billions)$3.251 $3.763 $4.436

Operational KPIs

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
LNG Cargoes Exported (count)155 158 167
LNG Volumes Exported (TBtu)553 568 604
LNG Volumes Recognized (TBtu)552 560 605

Notes: Adjusted EBITDA margin and Net Income margin are calculated from cited revenue and respective profit metrics .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)FY 2024$6.0–$6.3B (raised/tightened Oct) Actual $6.155B Achieved above original range; in revised range
Distributable Cash Flow ($USD Billions)FY 2024$3.4–$3.7B (raised/tightened Oct) Actual $3.73B Achieved top of revised range
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)FY 2025N/A$6.5–$7.0B Introduced; raised vs FY24 actual
Distributable Cash Flow ($USD Billions)FY 2025N/A$4.1–$4.6B Introduced; raised vs FY24 actual
Production (mt)FY 2025N/A47–48 mt (Trains 1–3 ramp) Introduced
CQP Distributions ($/unit)FY 2025N/A$3.25–$3.35 Introduced
Dividend ($/share quarterly)Q4 2024$0.500 (increased in Q3) Declared $0.500 payable Feb 21, 2025 Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 & Q3)Current Period (Q4)Trend
Stage 3 executionQ2: Stage 3 62.4% complete; utilities energized; first LNG targeted by year-end . Q3: 67.8% complete; first gas imminent; first LNG by year-end .First LNG achieved (Dec); first cargo produced (Feb); Train 1 substantial completion targeted end-Q1; overall 77.2% complete .Accelerating; ahead of schedule
Market/geopolitics (Europe/Asia)Q2: Asia demand growth; Europe imports lower; storage high; fragile balance . Q3: Elevated TTF/JKM; Asia pull vs Europe; MENA demand rising; supply constraints .Europe tighter in Q4 amid winter and Ukraine transit expiry; inventories below prior year; continued elevated European prices calling cargoes; Asia growth sustained .Supportive for U.S. LNG flows
Regulatory/permittingQ2: Brownfield advantages; positive EA for CCL 8 & 9; DOE dynamic noted . Q3: DOE FTA positive; permitting risks discussed .More constructive U.S. permitting environment under new administration; aggressively pursuing permits to enable >90 mtpa capacity optionality .Improving backdrop
Contracting/pricingQ2: Galp 0.5 mtpa SPA; portfolio optimization drivers . Q3: SPA levels at/above $2–$2.50/mmBtu marketing range; brownfield economics .Spot netbacks ~$8–$9; ~2 mt 2025 spot locked; SPA pricing at top end of historical range; >90% contracted through mid-2030s .High contract coverage; selective
ESG/methane/LCAQ3: Methane intensity target establishment and MSCI AAA upgrade .Updated peer-reviewed LCA integrates measurement data; 20–28% lower GHG intensities vs NETL 2019; continued QMRV leadership .Reinforced environmental credibility

Management Commentary

  • “We exported a record 646 cargoes of LNG in 2024… Record production, coupled with strategic portfolio optimization, enabled us to achieve financial results at or above the high end of our guidance ranges” — Jack Fusco, CEO .
  • “Looking ahead to the full year 2025… guidance of $6.5 billion to $7 billion in consolidated adjusted EBITDA, $4.1 billion to $4.6 billion in distributable cash flow… 2024 was a trough year… as Corpus Christi Stage 3 begins to enter operations” — Jack Fusco .
  • “We forecast 47 million to 48 million tons of LNG in 2025… a $1 change in market margin would impact EBITDA by approximately $75 million to $100 million” — Zach Davis, CFO .
  • “86% of our cargoes in January went to Europe… inventories are still ~25% lower than last year… reliable and certain product with full destination flexibility” — Anatol Feygin, CCO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Geopolitics and Europe: Management expects sustained European call on LNG as inventories are below 2024 and Ukraine transit ended; highlighted strong January flows to Europe (86% of cargoes) .
  • 2025 guidance composition and Stage 3 timing: To reach high-end 48 mt, three Stage 3 trains need to be up by early Q4; low-end assumes two trains reaching substantial completion .
  • Optimization drivers: Over $100M optimization already locked; upstream basis, subchartering, and downstream cargo placement cited; shipping rates lower YoY .
  • Capital allocation and buybacks: ~$2.25B repurchased in 2024; buybacks remain opportunistic; balance sheet investment grade across issuers; planned CapEx >$2B in 2025 while maintaining returns .
  • Permitting backdrop: Early days of the new administration “refreshing” with clearer regulatory certainty; enabling brownfield growth optionality and staged FIDs (Sabine earliest late-2026/more likely 2027) .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global Capital IQ) for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable in this session due to data access limits; as a result, explicit “vs estimates” comparisons cannot be provided. Values would normally be retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Stage 3 ramp is the near-term catalyst: First LNG achieved and Train 1 substantial completion targeted by end-Q1 2025; EBITDA/DCF guidance implies step-up vs FY24 actuals as Trains 1–3 enter service .
  • Strong contract coverage limits downside: >90% of expected operational volumes under long-term agreements; platform averages ~95% contracted through mid-2030s, anchoring cash flows .
  • Sensitivity to market netbacks and timing: Remaining open 2025 volumes and netbacks (~$8–$9) plus Stage 3 ramp timing can drive variability; ~$75–$100M EBITDA per $1 margin swing .
  • Capital returns remain robust: $2.3B buybacks in 2024; dividend maintained at $0.500/share for Q4; continued debt reduction preserves investment-grade ratings .
  • Macro tailwinds: Europe’s tighter balances and Asia’s growing demand support U.S. LNG utilization; geopolitical uncertainties reinforce LNG’s role in energy security .
  • Brownfield growth and permitting optionality: Company pursuing permits to potentially exceed 90 mtpa permitted capacity over time; Sabine expansion phased with economics discipline .
  • Watch non-GAAP vs GAAP: Adjusted EBITDA and DCF are key performance indicators; GAAP results impacted by derivative mark-to-market accounting mismatches on IPM agreements .

Appendix: Additional Relevant Q4 Press Releases

  • First LNG at Stage 3 (Dec 30, 2024) and Chart Industries note (Dec 31, 2024) .
  • Updated peer-reviewed LNG LCA (Nov 12, 2024) .
  • Q4 Dividend Declaration (Jan 28, 2025) .