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ALLIANT ENERGY CORP (LNT)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 delivered GAAP EPS of $0.83, up 34% YoY, with results “ahead of plan” despite negative temperature impacts; ongoing FY25 EPS guidance reaffirmed at $3.15–$3.25 .
  • Revenue rose to $1.13B (+9.4% YoY) and operating income to $257M (+15.8% YoY); key drivers were higher revenue requirements from capital investments at IPL and WPL, tax timing, partially offset by higher depreciation and financing expense .
  • Street consensus was exceeded: EPS $0.83 vs $0.71 and revenue $1.13B vs $1.095B; only one revenue estimate was available, but both were clear beats* .
  • Capex plan for 2025–2028 was raised to $11.5B (from $11.0B), reflecting additional natural gas, renewables and storage to serve 2.1 GW of contracted data center load and derisking via safe harbor of 100% of renewables/storage through 2028 .
  • Financing update: launch of ATM program and plan for ~$1.4B new common equity in 2026–2028; post‐quarter debt actions included $600M IPL 2035 senior debentures and $500M parent 2028 convertibles, adding flexibility to fund elevated investments .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Revenue and EPS beats driven by rate base growth and constructive outcomes; IPL/WPL rate orders contributed $0.21 EPS variance, with $0.15 from IPL and $0.06 from WPL .
  • Strategic progress on data center growth: 3 ESAs totaling ~2.1 GW, accelerating load ramp via existing resources; “we now have 3 data center developments with fully executed ESAs totaling 2.1 gigawatts of demand” .
  • Risk mitigation on tariffs and tax: 100% of renewables/storage capex safe‐harbored through 2028; tariff exposure ~1–2% of the $11.5B capex plan prior to further mitigation .

What Went Wrong

  • Temperatures were warmer than normal, decreasing electric and gas margins by ~$0.03 EPS (vs ~$0.08 in Q1 2024); estimated operating income impact was –$9M in Q1 2025 .
  • Higher depreciation and financing expenses offset part of the rate base benefit; these were cited as negative variance drivers in Q1 .
  • Limited Street participation on revenue (one estimate) underscores visibility challenges amid evolving load/resource plans, necessitating careful consensus interpretation*.

Financial Results

Sequential Comparison (Q3 2024 → Q4 2024 → Q1 2025)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$1,081 $976 $1,128
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$313 $222 $257
Net Income ($USD Millions)$295 $150 $213
EPS ($USD, diluted)$1.15 $0.58 $0.83
EBIT Margin %28.9%*22.8%*22.8%*

Note: EBIT Margin % values marked with * are from S&P Global.

YoY (Q1 2024 vs Q1 2025)

MetricQ1 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$1,031 $1,128
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$222 $257
Net Income ($USD Millions)$158 $213
EPS ($USD, diluted)$0.62 $0.83
Utility Electric Sales (MWh 000s)8,353 8,257
Utility Gas Sold & Transported (Dth 000s)54,025 54,828

Estimates vs Actual (Q1 2025)

MetricConsensus*ActualSurprise
EPS ($USD)$0.71$0.83 +0.12 (Beat)
Revenue ($USD Millions)$1,094.99$1,128 +$33.0 (Beat)

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Contributions (EPS and Earnings)

SegmentEPS Q1 2024EPS Q1 2025Earnings ($M) Q1 2024Earnings ($M) Q1 2025
IPL$0.25 $0.43 $63 $110
WPL$0.36 $0.43 $92 $110
Corporate Services$0.01 $0.01 $4 $5
ATC Holdings$0.04 $0.04 $9 $10
Non-utility & Parent($0.04) ($0.08) ($10) ($22)
Consolidated$0.62 $0.83 $158 $213

KPIs (Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024)

KPIQ1 2024Q1 2025
Retail Electric Customers997,488 1,004,908
Retail Gas Customers429,216 431,903
Estimated Temp Impact (Operating Income, $M)($30) ($9)
HDDs – Cedar Rapids (IPL)2,850 3,240
HDDs – Madison (WPL)2,979 3,367
Dividend per Share (Quarter)$0.48 $0.5075 (Declared Apr 2, 2025)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Ongoing EPSFY 2025$3.15–$3.25 $3.15–$3.25 Maintained
Capex (Aggregate)2025–2028$11.0B $11.5B Raised
Effective Tax Rate (Consolidated)FY 2025(28%) (28%) Maintained
Dividend (Quarterly)Q2 2025$0.48 $0.5075 (payable May 15) Raised
Financing Plan (Equity)2026–2028Not specified prior~$1.4B new common equity via ATM/other flexibility New Disclosure

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024)Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Data Center Load GrowthStrong interest; updated load forecast signaled 1,500 MW solar completed; economic development highlighted 3 ESAs totaling ~2.1 GW; accelerated load ramp via existing resources Strengthening
Capex Resource Mix2024–2028 plan at $11.0B Ongoing plan; focus on renewables/storage Raised to $11.5B; incremental natural gas, renewables/storage; safe harbor 100% renewables/storage through 2028 Increasing
Tariffs & Supply ChainAcknowledged risk around solar/storage sourcing Execution of major programs despite macro Battery tariff exposure ~1–2%; most in possession/in transit at 20% tariff Mitigated
Financing & EquityNo explicit equity detail 2025 guidance affirmed; dividends up Plan for ATM; ~$1.4B equity 2026–2028; IPL $600M debentures; parent $500M convertibles Expanding
Regulatory Constructs (ICR)Constructive outcomes Rate reviews and outcomes detailed Multiple ICR filings in IA/WI; aim for “win-win-win” Advancing
IRA/Tax Policy RiskHighlighted as a risk Forward-looking caution Strategy robust even if IRA is scaled back; safe harbor actions; supportive delegation letter noted De-risked
MISO Capacity MarketNot highlightedNot highlightedSelling excess capacity at elevated summer prices to benefit customers Favorable position

Management Commentary

  • “We now have 3 data center developments with fully executed ESAs totaling 2.1 gigawatts of demand… accelerating our load ramp… using existing resources.” — Lisa Barton .
  • “We are reaffirming our 2025 earnings guidance range of $3.15 to $3.25 per share.” — Robert Durian .
  • “100% of the renewable and energy storage CapEx in our plan is currently safe harbored through 2028.” — Lisa Barton .
  • “We estimate our total tariff exposure is approximately 1% to 2% of our $11.5 billion updated capital expenditure plan prior to further mitigation.” — Robert Durian .
  • “We plan to launch an at‐the‐market or ATM program this year… new common equity issuances assumed 2026 through 2028.” — Robert Durian .

Q&A Highlights

  • Equity and balance sheet: ~$1.4B equity need through 2028; flexibility via ATM/forward issuance; target maintaining investment‐grade metrics; positioning toward upper end of rating ranges in 2025 .
  • EPS CAGR: Management aims toward top end of the 5–7% range beginning in 2027, driven by elevated capex and load growth; further upside from incremental ESAs possible .
  • Tariff exposure on batteries: Sourcing strategy and early procurement limit exposure to ~20% tariffs on Chinese batteries, still below domestic costs; in possession/in transit .
  • MISO capacity auction: Company length monetized at elevated summer prices to offset customer bills; supports ongoing case for new dispatchable resources .
  • Regulatory cadence: Multiple dockets in IA/WI for batteries, natural gas generation, ICRs; two-year rate review cadence in WI with aim to keep base rates flat via growth and cost control .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 EPS beat: $0.83 actual vs $0.71 consensus*; revenue beat: $1.128B actual vs $1.095B consensus*; EPS had 6 estimates while revenue had 1 estimate, indicating low model coverage on the top line*.
  • Given reaffirmed FY25 guidance and elevated capex trajectory, consensus for outer quarters may recalibrate for timing of tax credits, depreciation, and financing costs; monitor equity issuance pacing (ATM) and data center ramp disclosures for estimate revisions .
    Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Constructive regulatory outcomes and rate base growth drove a clean beat; Q1 delivered >25% of guidance midpoint despite mild weather headwinds .
  • Load growth from contracted data center ESAs (2.1 GW) materially enhances long-term visibility; elevated capex ($11.5B) targets balanced resource mix with dispatchable gas complementing renewables/storage .
  • Financing plan is proactive and flexible (ATM, convertibles, IPL debentures) to support capex while preserving investment-grade credit profile; equity issuance is back-end loaded (2026–2028) .
  • Risk management is tangible: 100% safe-harbored renewables/storage projects through 2028 and modest tariff exposure (~1–2%), reducing policy/supply chain uncertainty .
  • Near-term trading: Positive setup on catalysts from additional ESA filings, regulatory approvals (ICRs, batteries, gas projects), and capacity market monetization; watch tariff headlines and IRA policy developments for sentiment shifts .
  • Medium-term thesis: Expect sustained 5–7% EPS CAGR trajectory with potential to trend toward the top end starting 2027 as elevated capex converts to earnings and large-load ramps materialize .
  • Dividend growth continues (quarterly to $0.5075); cash returns remain supported by stable utility cash flows and constructive regulation .

Attribution and Source Notes

  • Q1 2025 8-K and press release, financial statements, segment EPS, KPIs, and guidance: .
  • Prior quarters context: Q4 2024 press release and statements ; Q3 2024 press release .
  • Earnings call transcript and commentary: .
  • Financing actions: IPL debentures and parent convertibles .
  • Estimates (EPS, revenue, counts): S&P Global consensus*.