ALLIANT ENERGY CORP (LNT)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q3 delivered solid operations but softer financials vs Street: GAAP EPS $1.09 and ongoing EPS $1.12 vs S&P Global consensus $1.189; revenue $1.21B vs $1.33B consensus; management narrowed FY25 ongoing EPS to $3.17–$3.23 and said results are trending toward the upper half . EPS and revenue consensus from S&P Global estimates, see Estimates Context.*
• Strategic update was the catalyst: contracted data center demand raised to 3 GW (50% peak load growth by 2030), four ESAs now secured, and 4‑year CapEx lifted 17% to $13.4B to meet load—supporting a higher multi‑year growth runway .
• 2026 outlook introduced: ongoing EPS $3.36–$3.46 (midpoint +6.6% vs 2025 midpoint) and dividend target $2.14 (+5.4% YoY), with a more equity‑balanced financing plan to preserve metrics .
• Near‑term headwinds: higher O&M from planned generation maintenance/new resources, higher D&A and financing expense, and tax timing effects (expected to reverse by year‑end) weighed on EPS; non‑GAAP excludes a $0.03/sh state tax apportionment charge .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Secured structural growth: 3 GW of contracted data center demand implies ~50% peak demand growth by 2030; three of four projects are under construction, underpinning a multi‑year CapEx and earnings runway . “Our projected peak demand growth by 2030 has increased to an industry‑leading 50% through the execution of a fourth electric service agreement” — CEO Lisa Barton .
• Capital plan uplift with diversity: Raised 2026–2029 CapEx to $13.4B (+17%) spanning renewables, storage, gas peakers and T&D, supporting reliability and aligning new load with new generation .
• Regulatory momentum: Iowa ICRs approved for two Cedar Rapids data centers; Wisconsin PSC approved a unanimous retail electric and gas rate review settlement for 2026–2027, minimizing lag and improving visibility .

What Went Wrong

• Missed Street estimates: Ongoing EPS ($1.12) and revenue ($1.21B) missed S&P Global consensus ($1.189 and $1.33B), reflecting higher O&M, D&A, financing costs and tax timing; tax timing is expected to reverse by year‑end . S&P Global consensus figures; see Estimates Context.*
• Cost inflation and timing: Higher generation maintenance and integration costs for new resources elevated O&M; higher depreciation and financing from capital intensity pressured quarterly EPS despite stronger rate base .
• Equity supply overhang: Updated financing contemplates ~$2.4B of new common equity 2026–2029 (ATM/forwards/hybrids), tempering the translation from ~12% rate base/CWIP CAGR to 7–8%+ EPS CAGR due primarily to dilution .

Financial Results

Revenue and EPS vs prior year and prior quarter

• YoY: Revenue +11.9% ($1.210B vs $1.081B) and ongoing EPS down $0.03 to $1.12; QoQ: revenue +25.9% and ongoing EPS +$0.44 (from $0.68), aided by seasonal rate design and weather vs Q2 .

Margin trends

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment contributions (EPS per share, Non‑GAAP unless noted)

• Non‑GAAP excludes a $0.03/sh state income tax apportionment charge at the parent in Q3 2025 .

KPIs (selected operating statistics)

Guidance Changes

Dividend declaration during Q3: Board declared $0.5075 quarterly payable Nov 17, 2025 (320th consecutive quarter) .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “We delivered another solid quarter of operating performance and remain on track to achieve our full‑year earnings and dividend targets.” — Lisa Barton, President & CEO .
• “Our projected peak demand growth by 2030 has increased to an industry‑leading 50% through the execution of a fourth electric service agreement... We are initiating 2026 earnings guidance of $3.36–$3.46 per share.” — CEO prepared remarks .
• “Think of the 12% [rate base plus CWIP CAGR] as... ~10% rate base growth and ~2% QIP growth... The walk down to 7–8%+ EPS is primarily equity dilution and conservative interest rate assumptions.” — CFO Robert Durian .
• “We’re increasing our four‑year capital expenditure plan by 17% to $13.4 billion... providing investors with a clear view of well‑developed opportunities.” — CEO .

Q&A Highlights

• EPS growth translation: Despite ~12% rate base/CWIP CAGR, management frames 7–8%+ EPS CAGR due mainly to equity dilution and conservative rate assumptions; upside possible as additional load converts .
• Load ramp: Minimal earnings from data centers in 2026 (production load in 2H26), ramp building through 2030; Google ramp accelerated in Cedar Rapids .
• Pipeline confidence: 2–4 GW incremental opportunities in active negotiations with high‑quality counterparties; focus on “plug‑and‑ready” sites minimizes transmission dependencies and accelerates in‑service .
• Balance sheet discipline: Targeting 50–100 bps FFO/debt cushion; ~$1.5–$1.6B of tax credit monetization planned over four years to fund CapEx .
• Regulatory cadence: Iowa ICR construct provides earnings certainty with upside sharing; Wisconsin two‑year forward test years smooth approvals, with the latest settlement approved .

Estimates Context

• Q3 2025 vs S&P Global consensus: Ongoing EPS $1.12 vs $1.189 (−$0.07); Revenue $1.210B vs $1.328B (−$0.12B). EPS: 7 estimates; Revenue: 2 estimates. Results reflect higher O&M (planned generation maintenance and new resources), higher D&A and financing, and tax timing; management expects tax timing variances to reverse by year‑end . Consensus figures from S&P Global.*

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Implication: Street models may need to temper near‑term EPS for higher O&M/D&A/interest and the slower 2026 load ramp, while 2026 guidance and the enlarged CapEx plan should lift outer‑year growth expectations .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• The quarter was operationally solid but an estimates miss; the stock narrative should center on structurally higher growth from contracted data centers, the 17% CapEx uplift, and newly introduced 2026 guidance rather than Q3 variance noise .
• Growth visibility improved: 3 GW contracted (50% peak demand growth by 2030) plus a 2–4 GW pipeline de‑risk the multi‑year investment case; watch for additional ESAs and regulatory approvals as catalysts .
• Funding mix shifts more equity‑heavy through 2029 (~$2.4B), diluting the rate‑base‑to‑EPS translation; positive execution on tax credit monetization and hybrids can mitigate dilution and support credit metrics .
• Regulatory construct remains a differentiator: Iowa ICRs and Wisconsin forward test years reduce lag and enable “grow at the pace of the customer,” supporting above‑sector growth while maintaining affordability .
• 2026 setup is constructive: EPS $3.36–$3.46 and dividend target $2.14 establish a higher base; given a modest 2026 load contribution, upside beyond 2027 hinges on faster load ramps and timely resource additions .
• Near‑term modeling: incorporate higher O&M tied to resource integration and maintenance, higher D&A and interest, and assume tax timing reverses in Q4; margin trend improved in Q3 2025 vs 1H .
• Watchlist: Google ramp in Cedar Rapids, QTS Madison ICR filing/approval, MISO interconnection milestones, PSCW decisions on Beaver Dam ICR and customer‑focused investments, and any incremental ESA signings .

Notes: Non‑GAAP excludes a $0.03/sh state income tax apportionment charge in Q3 2025 . Weather added ~$10M to Q3 operating income (electric), while seasonal Iowa rate design smoothed intra‑year earnings patterns in 2025 .

S&P Global data disclaimer: Asterisked values and consensus figures were retrieved from S&P Global.*