Loar Holdings - Q4 2025
February 26, 2026
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Greetings, welcome to Loar Q4 and Full Year 2025 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone requires operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Ian McKillop, Director of Investor Relations. You may begin.
Ian McKillop (Director of Investor Relations)
Thank you, Brock. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Loar Q4 and Full Year 2025 Earnings Conference Call. Presenting on the call this morning are Loar's Chief Executive Officer and Executive Co-Chairman, Dirkson Charles, Executive Co-Chairman, Brett Milgrim, Treasurer and Chief Financial Officer, Glenn D'Alessandro, as well as myself, Ian McKillop, the Director of Investor Relations. Please visit our website at loargroup.com to obtain a slide deck and call replay information. Before we begin, we'd like to remind you that statements made during this call, which are not historical in fact, are forward-looking statements. For further information about important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements, please refer to the company's latest filings with the SEC, available through the Investor Relations section of our website or at sec.gov.
We'd also like to advise you that during the call we will be referring to Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA Margin, and Adjusted Earnings Per Share, each of which is a non-GAAP financial measure. Please see the tables and related footnotes in the earnings release for a presentation of the most directly comparable GAAP measures and applicable reconciliations. To begin today, I'll now turn the call over to Dirkson.
Dirkson Charles (CEO and Executive Co-Chairman)
Thanks, Ian. Good morning to my mates and all our partners participating on this call. I'm Dirkson, Founder, CEO, Executive Co-Chairman of Loar. As you all know, Loar was founded 14 years ago with the mission of building an aerospace industrial cash compounder, wrapped in a culture that all our mates can be proud of. 14 years into our journey, I am as excited about our future as I've ever been. In 2025, we once again delivered predictable and consistent financial performance, exceeding all our key annual financial goals. Sales, Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA Margins, and free cash flow were all annual records for Loar. My excitement really comes from looking forward to 2026 and the opportunity to break all those records we set last year. Looking into the future, all our end markets have strong tailwinds.
The commercial aftermarket has experienced an increase in the average age of the in-service fleet. Pre-COVID, the average was approximately 11 years. Today, it sits at 14+ years. The older the fleet, the more demand for aftermarket parts. We love that. This is a trend we can expect to continue well into the 2030s, as the delivery of new aircraft continues to fall short of demand. In addition, the commercial aftermarket has witnessed a decrease in the number of aircraft retired each year. Historically, 2.5% of the fleet is retired. However, from 2022 through 2025, the retirement rate has continuously decreased, reaching a low of 1.5% for 2025. Aging fleets, reduced retirement, all lead to one thing: greater demand for our parts into the future.
With regard to original equipment manufacturers who are sitting on record backlogs of orders for future delivery, they have done an excellent job in addressing ongoing supply chain challenges, shortages of skilled labor and raw materials, constrained production, and geopolitical uncertainty to now be able to increase production. Airbus and Boeing plan to produce approximately 1,900 and 1,300 aircraft over the next two years, respectively. This would represent a compound annual growth rate increase of 15% over 2025 production rates. Our proprietary products that align fit on these aircraft will generate increased sales for us as production ramps. With regard to the defense market, which has been heavily influenced by the current geopolitical environment, European nations have increased their military spending to the highest percentage of GDP in decades.
In the US, there is talk of a $1.5 trillion defense budget. Combined, these trends will lead to greater opportunities for us to provide more products and solutions. Given our balanced portfolio, 50% OE, approximately 50% aftermarket, the broad spectrum of our products across all end markets, combined with executing all along all our value drivers, we expect to continue to grow sales at 10%+ organically and Adjusted EBITDA at 15%+ annually into the foreseeable future. We continue to grow inorganically as well. Every time we add a new member to our family of companies, we view it as adding capabilities to the Loar toolkit. The larger the toolkit, the larger the revenue synergies. I'm pleased to welcome our new mates from LMB and Harper.
LMB brings new capabilities to our toolkit, and we're excited to add our new mates to the team. Harper is a company I've personally known for 18 years. Could not be happier knowing that this once employee-owned company chose us to carry their brand into the future. No option, just a good old-fashioned getting to know each other and realizing that our cultures made for a perfect match. Bob and Carlo, welcome to Team Loar. With that said, Loar is a family of companies with a very simple approach to creating shareholder value. First, we believe that providing our business units with an entrepreneurial and collaborative environment to advance their brands, we will generate above-market growth rates.
Since our inception in 2012 through the end of calendar year 2025, we have grown sales and Adjusted EBITDA at a compound annual growth rate of over 30% and 40%, respectively. Second, we execute along four value streams. We identified pain points within the aerospace industry and look to solve those problems through organically launching new products. In calendar year 2026, we expect that new product growth will be the number driver of our organic growth as we qualify new parts in the first half of the year, fueling increased sales starting the second half of 2026. As you all know, we track this pipeline of opportunities monthly. This pipeline represents a list of opportunities derived from listening to our customers, identifying their pain points, and developing direct solutions for them.
These solutions are created from the sharing of ideas, best practices, and customer synergies across the group, which directly results in the high degree of collaboration that we foster across our business units. The pipeline represents over $600 million in sales over the next five years, without including the benefit of top line synergies we expect to achieve since adding the capability to produce fans, motors, interior latching mechanisms, and seat track fittings to our toolkit through the additions of LMB and Harper. We focus on optimizing the way we manufacture, go to market, and manage our companies to enhance productivity. Each year, we will identify initiatives that will allow us to continually improve our performance, with a focus on one or two major efforts that can be expected to expand margins.
We continuously investigate ways to improve how we mine, collect, gather, and utilize data. Enhancing our management, ERP, and other systems and processes allows us to efficiently leverage data and drive financial and operational efficiencies. Each year, we achieve more price than our cost of inflation, which is one of the levers we use to continuously improve margins year after year, except for the occasional temporary dilution due to acquiring a business with dilutive margins or incurring costs because of being a public company. Regardless of these temporary headwinds, we continue to improve our margins. Most importantly, we are committed to developing and improving the talent of our mates, because our success is solely a result of their dedication and commitment. To all my mates, as always, thank you so much for your commitment and hard work.
I will now turn it over to Brett to walk you through the key characteristics of our portfolio and our commitment to our inorganic growth.
Brett Milgrim (Executive Co-Chairman)
Thanks, Dirkson. Good morning, everybody. One of the key drivers of our exceptional performance this quarter and this year, and maybe more importantly, our consistent performance over a very long period of time, is because we have a very diverse portfolio of products that covers virtually all end markets, platforms, customers, and is balanced across the OE and aftermarket spectrum. Said another way, we have content on virtually anything that flies today, and that's by design, as opposed to relying on any particular platform, end market, or specific product line. We just want to have exposure to and be balanced across a very large and growing overall aerospace and defense market. We accomplish this through a very broad portfolio, the vast majority of which consists of proprietary products, which allows us to drive growth, achieve valued pricing, and create strong customer relationships and corresponding cross-selling opportunities.
Effectively, we have positioned ourselves to capture the 20, 30, 40, or even 50-year annuity that any one particular platform may provide, whether it's a commercial aircraft, military aircraft, or in part of its OE or aftermarket portion of its life cycle. Our proprietary products are not only growing as a percentage of our total portfolio, but also growing in the aggregate, as we have a long history now of supplementing our organic growth with M&A activity and a large pipeline of opportunities. What we're seeing today with M&A is a very active market with many willing potential sellers. As such, we think a market like this requires an appropriate amount of discipline, whether it's related to price or just the quality of the assets for sale.
That discipline is something we have been very focused about in creating the portfolio we have today. As a result, we have done one to two deals a year for a fairly long time now, irrespective of macro conditions or the like. We remain a very active and consistent acquirer of assets and fully expect 2026 to be another active year. In fact, since going public less than two years ago, we've invested over $1.1 billion of capital in M&A, which is far and away our greatest use of free cash flow. Along with strong organic growth, has resulted in us doubling the size of the business in two years as a public company, when you include our latest announced deals.
To Dirkson's earlier point, we feel very confident in a business model that, through organic means and acquisition-related growth, can at least triple every five years. We are certainly ahead of that pace since becoming a public company. Our newest family members, LMB and Harper, both represent the type of businesses that we want in the portfolio. We obviously haven't had the chance to speak since announcing the closures of either LMB or Harper. We're really excited about both. I think these companies represent what I was mentioning earlier, two very different product lines serving different end markets and customers, both right down the middle of the types of businesses we want to own: proprietary content in niche markets with meaningful aftermarket opportunities. Just to review, two of the names that are on this page here.
LMB, I think most of you know, because that's a business that we announced many, many months ago. We're very glad to finally have closed that, I think, in the last week of December. LMB is a business located in the southern portion of France. It's a great business that manufactures what we call engineered cooling devices and solutions. Said another way, think customized and ruggedized fans and motors and systems that go into niche applications in military content, whether it's an aircraft or a ground vehicle. It's a 100% proprietary product portfolio with what we think is a very, very meaningful opportunity to increase the aftermarket side of the business today, which is less heavily weighted towards currently.
It also serves an end market that we haven't really had a lot of exposure to, but has a lot of headwinds today, excuse me, a lot of tailwinds today, which is the European defense market. We think that's gonna be very strong for the next couple of years. It's a business that today is margin accretive to overall Loar, and it has a real growth opportunity to enter the world's largest military market here in the U.S., which it does very, very little of. We're very excited about the opportunities in front of us. Harper, as Duerksen referenced, is actually a business that we've been familiar with since our days at McKechnie. This is a business that, again, we call, has interior securing components, but think interior latching mechanisms and the like.
We are familiar with it through McKechnie, because we had a latching business called Hartwell, back in the 2007-2010 timeframe, we are very familiar with Harper due to its stellar reputation, high-quality products, and excellent relationship with Boeing. Harper serves a completely different market than LMB in that it primarily serves the commercial market. Like I said, it has a excellent representation with Boeing. They have been recognized as one of Boeing's most trusted suppliers, we think that relationship can foster further cross-selling opportunities with Boeing, with other parts of the commercial market, and really be a value-added piece to the portfolio.
We're really excited about both LMB and Harper, and we can already see the collaboration with other business units as we think these new products are gonna be value added to the overall portfolio, which Ian will tell you about next.
Ian McKillop (Director of Investor Relations)
You know, every quarter, we share this slide about highlighting our products. The real power of this portfolio isn't just any one of these products. It's the combined capabilities that Dirkson spoke about earlier. We've added two new capabilities, interior latching assemblies, as you can see in the top right, Harper fans and cooling devices with our acquisition of LMB. This product offering, with over 25,000 SKUs, of which no one more makes up more than 3% of our overall revenue, brings our customers something that is incredibly unique, a set of capabilities that can serve them and can be adjusted to meet their needs. I'll now pass the call back to Glenn.
Glenn D'Alessandro (Treasurer and CFO)
Thank you, Ian. Good morning, everyone. Let me start by discussing sales by our end markets. This comparison will be on a pro forma basis, as if each of our businesses were owned as of the first day of the earliest period presented. This market discussion includes the acquisition of Applied Avionics in Q3 2024 and Beadlight in Q3 2025. It does not include our latest acquisitions of LMB Fans & Motors and Harper Engineering. We achieved record sales during calendar year 2025. In total, our sales increased to $500 million, which is a 15% increase as compared to the prior year. Our Q4 sales were also a record, increasing 17% versus the prior year quarter. These increases were driven by strong performances in commercial, aftermarket, commercial OEM, and defense. Our commercial aftermarket sales saw an increase of 19% in calendar year 2025 versus 2024.
It increased 34% in Q4 2025 versus Q4 2024. This is primarily driven by the continued strength and demand for commercial air travel and an aging commercial fleet.
... Our total commercial OEM sales saw an increase of 11% in calendar year 2025 versus 2024. It increased 8% in Q4 2025 versus Q4 2024. This increase was driven by higher sales across a significant portion of the platforms we supply, along with an improvement production environment for commercial OEMs. The increase of 19% in our defense sales in calendar year 2025 versus 2024, and 14% in Q4 2025 versus Q4 2024, was primarily due to strong demand across multiple platforms and an increase in market share as a result of new product launches. Defense sales will continue to be lumpy, given the nature of the ordering patterns of our end customers for our products. Let me recap our financial highlights for the fourth quarter of 2025. Sales increased 19.3% or 16.9%, excluding acquisition sales over the prior period.
Our gross profit margin for Q4 2025 increased by 320 basis points as compared to the prior year period. This increase was primarily due to our operating leverage, the execution of our strategic value drivers, as well as a favorable sales mix. Our increase in net income of $9 million in Q4 2025 versus Q4 2024 is primarily due to lower interest. Adjusted EBITDA was up $10 million in Q4 2025 versus Q4 2024. Adjusted EBITDA margins were 38.7% due to our operating leverage, the execution of our strategic value drivers and a favorable sales mix. This was partially offset by additional costs associated with being a public company, including Sarbanes-Oxley compliance and additional organizational costs to support our reporting, governance, and control needs.
For the full year of 2025, sales increased 23.2% or 12.7%, excluding acquisition sales. Our gross profit margin for the full year was 52.7%, which is up 330 basis points as compared to the prior year period. Our net income increased $50 million in calendar year 2025 versus 2024. This was driven by lower interest expense and higher operating income. Our Adjusted EBITDA was a record on $189 million in calendar year 2025. This is up $43 million versus 2024. Adjusted EBITDA margins were up 180 basis points due to our operating leverage, the execution of our strategic value drivers and a favorable sales mix. This was partially offset by the additional costs associated with being a public company.
We do not see an increase in these type of public company costs going forward. We believe the run rate of these costs are fully reflected in our calendar year 2025 results. Our free cash flow conversion, which is defined as cash flow from operations, less capital expenditures, was 138% for calendar year 2025, and it's 160% if you exclude a one-time $10 million tax benefit we received from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Let me now turn the call back over to Dirkson to share our outlook for 2026.
Dirkson Charles (CEO and Executive Co-Chairman)
Thanks, Glenn. Look, we are extremely excited to share upward revision to our 2026 outlook. As I said earlier, each of our end markets are experiencing strong demand tailwinds, our focus is on executing our value drivers to continue to position us to, at least, as Brett said earlier, at least triple Adjusted EBITDA every five years, including acquisitions, as we've done consistently since our inception, except during COVID. As always, our view is on a pro forma basis, assuming we own all of our business units since the beginning of 2025. With that said, we still expect commercial OEM and aftermarket growth will be low double digits in 2026 for all of the reasons I highlighted earlier.
Our defense end market sales will be up mid-single digits as we come off a fantastic year of 19% growth in 2025 over 2024. As we've always said, growth in the defense end market will be choppy. These market assumptions, along with the additions of LMB and Harper to our family of companies, and our continued execution of our value drivers, will allow us to meet or exceed the following for calendar year 2026. Net sales between $640 million and $650 million. Adjusted EBITDA between $253 million and $258 million. Adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 40%. Once again, we demonstrate our ability to continually improve margins.
Net income between $59 million-$63 million, while adjusted EPS between $0.76-$0.80 per share, which is a reduction in our guide only because of the incremental non-cash depreciation and amortization related to the acquisitions of LMB and Harper, as well as the interest associated with funding those acquisitions, as we discussed earlier. Capital expenditures will be in line with our historical rate of approximately 3% of sales at $19 million. We have increased fully our interest expense to $80 million because of the funds we borrowed to fund the acquisitions of LMB and Harper. We expect both acquisitions to meet our investment hurdle of doubling Adjusted EBITDA in three-five years and to be accretive to earnings in calendar year 2027.
Our effective tax rate, 25%, depreciation and amortization of $75 million, and non-cash stock-based comp of approximately $17 million. share count remains the same, 97 million. Look, please note that all of the amounts I've just outlined for you relating to calendar 2026 performance assume no additional acquisitions. However, as Brett said earlier, our drumbeat is to complete one or two acquisitions each year. We just cannot predict the timing of such acquisitions. I will add that the activity around acquisitions is even at a higher level than it was when we chatted last quarter. We're excited about that also. Okay. With that, operator, let's turn it over for questions.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Our first question today comes from John Godyn of Citi. Please proceed with your question.
John Godyn (Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst and Head of Aerospace, Defense and Airlines)
Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. I have one clarification and one kind of more real question. The clarification is obviously, we see the revised outlook and across, you know, all the metrics that I think drive the stock most, it's gone up, margin, you know, EBITDA, et cetera. I think the analysts that are close to the name kind of understand what's going on here, but I wanted to just give you a chance to spend an extra second on the adjusted EPS kind of revision lower and what's driving that, and just make sure that it's super clear for everybody.
Dirkson Charles (CEO and Executive Co-Chairman)
Yeah, John, look, thank you for asking the question. I really appreciate that, 'cause we realize that can be a little bit confusing for folks. Look, when we gave our guide, last quarter, we didn't have the acquisitions included in it, right? That didn't include LMB, and it did not include Harper. As happens always, when you do an acquisition, you incur accounting, legal fees, and the like. We call those transaction expenses, right? That's incurred. That affects EPS. In addition-
Brett Milgrim (Executive Co-Chairman)
Those are one-time in nature, though.
Dirkson Charles (CEO and Executive Co-Chairman)
Yes. In addition, we're required for accounting reasons, to write up the assets, and also write off some of the intangible assets through amortization, all non-cash, that gets charged against net income. All of those is what's driving the change, including the additional interest to the EPS. Non-cash mostly is the biggest driver.
John Godyn (Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst and Head of Aerospace, Defense and Airlines)
Got it. Thank you. Sorry, I was on mute for a second there. That's very helpful. My sort of more real question is, you sounded very optimistic about the M&A pipeline, and that's something we've heard from other companies as well, and we've seen it in rising deal activity across A&D. You mentioned one to two M&A deals a year. I want to just sort of press on that, and the question is: Could we see an elevated rate above that range for a bit? Could we see deal size go up? You know, how do you think that this kind of, more active and maybe, more interesting deal environment manifests itself for Loar versus historical norms?
Brett Milgrim (Executive Co-Chairman)
The short answer, John, is yes and yes. Meaning we're seeing more deal flow, we're seeing more active sellers, we're just overall seeing a more active market in this space, given what we see as good visibility, good performance, and quite candidly, good valuations, which makes for active sellers. Like I said before, though, is that also means that we need to have more discipline because we need to make sure that we see the requisite returns in anything we do. We talk about one to two deals a year simply as a proxy, given the historical trends. In any given year, it could be significantly more.
It really just depends on the opportunities in front of us, and we will always be opportunistic and always be disciplined, such that if prices get too high or quality of assets for sale are too low, or there are things that we don't see the return in, we're not going to do it simply and exclusively because it's an, quote, unquote, "active market." We've been very, very consistent over, I think, a relatively, you know, long period of time now, and I think our track record kind of speaks for itself. I use the one to two deals as a proxy and nothing more, and we're gonna be opportunistic as we go here in 2026.
John Godyn (Managing Director, Senior Equity Research Analyst and Head of Aerospace, Defense and Airlines)
Appreciate it. Great color. Thanks, guys.
Ian McKillop (Director of Investor Relations)
Yeah, no problem. Thanks, John.
Dirkson Charles (CEO and Executive Co-Chairman)
Thanks, John.
Brett Milgrim (Executive Co-Chairman)
Thanks, John.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Kristine Liwag of Morgan Stanley. Please proceed with your question.
Kristine Liwag (Executive Director and Head of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research)
Hey, good morning, everyone, and thanks for all the color you've provided. you know, in the quarter, you guys called out 17% organic sales growth. I was wondering if you could talk about the building blocks of that organic growth. It's pretty robust, above industry market. If you were to look at, you know, on a same store, you know, apples to apples volume, what would it have been? Also, how much of this growth was from your new product introduction, and how do we think about this throughout 2026?
Dirkson Charles (CEO and Executive Co-Chairman)
Hi, Kristine, and thanks for asking the question. In terms of what's driving our... I'll use your terminology, organic growth. Look, I think I've said this before, prior to the most recent time, I would say volume was the biggest driver. If you break it up between volume, price, and new business. As we think about 2026 and going forward, and 2025, the new product introduction is really the largest driver of our organic growth, and which is where we think we actually differentiate ourselves from others. That $600 million of opportunity that I talked about earlier, we're actually at the cusp now of really starting to get the benefit of that.
In 2026 and beyond, think 2026, 2027, we expect that that will be the largest driver of organic growth, going into, you know, the next 12-24 months.
Brett Milgrim (Executive Co-Chairman)
Just to add something, you know, for the calendar year 2025, I think our "organic growth" is actually better than is represented as the number we put in the queue, and you saw it on one of Glenn's slide. Pro forma growth, which really is the more appropriate measure to measure organic, 'cause it gives us credit for the organic growth and the acquisitions we did, was actually closer to 15% relative to the 12.9 as reported. 15% organic pro forma growth, as if we had owned all the businesses at the beginning of the initial period, I think is really, really spectacular and something that we're very proud of.
Kristine Liwag (Executive Director and Head of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research)
Thanks for the color, guys. I mean, these are standout numbers. You know, following up on the deal dynamics, the being able to close LMB Fans & Motors, you know, being a French asset, you know, I think it seems like a pretty incredible way to close that kind of deal, especially the French government ownership. When you're looking at the pool of available assets, how much more interest do you have in expanding out international capabilities? Is there more of a potentially, like, roll-up, fragmented pool you can pull from in the European market? How does your ability to close LMB give you confidence that maybe, hey, you've got another rich pool to pull from?
Brett Milgrim (Executive Co-Chairman)
Yeah, excellent question. Look, as you guys know, and you know, particularly Kristine, it's a global industry, aerospace, that is. I think over time, you will see us continuing to do more and more outside the borders of the U.S., specifically. That being said, the opportunity set remains huge, particularly for the size deals that we are looking to acquire. We have more opportunities than we'll ever get to. I've said that many, many times. In Europe, in particular, now that we have four businesses over there, which really serve as a base of infrastructure and management talent and resources that we never had before, it exponentially increases our ability to build off those things to own more assets. Europe, obviously, is a very big market. We're just getting started there.
Whether it's Europe, the U.S., or elsewhere, I think you're going to continue to see us expand internationally and, you know, mirror the footprint of the overall industry.
Kristine Liwag (Executive Director and Head of Aerospace and Defense Equity Research)
Super helpful. If I could sneak a third one in, you know, we mostly focus on your commercial aerospace business, but defense has been also seeing significant increases. You know, Dirk, when you talked about the potential $1.5 trillion, and look, in Europe, if they want to increase to 5% of GDP, you're seeing fairly large numbers across the board. What we've seen is that the concern about the ability of the supply chain and the industrial base to support this growth has been a priority. When you look at your role as a supplier in this environment with strong, you know, operational skills, I mean, look at your margin and your ability to deliver to your customers, how do you see yourself in that ecosystem? What problems could you incrementally solve?
Could you see outsized growth in your defense business versus what top lines are just from that vertical integration in the supply chain and your ability to be able to get product in the hands of your customer? Not to lead the witness, but and maybe I did a little bit, it would be helpful to understand how you think about that defense growth.
Ian McKillop (Director of Investor Relations)
I mean, you know, Kristine, this is Ian. We always view defense growth as lumpy, right? I think that actually, given that fact, we have a very strong operational mindset that we can react when our customers need us to react. I think that's positioned us well, because you're right. I mean, across the global environment, everything is pointing to strong tailwinds in defense. Our team is ready to meet that need, should it be there, or when it's there. I think we're well positioned to capture those things. I think, you know, to Dirkson's point on that $600 million list of opportunities, right?
Defense opportunities are in there, and so we're focused on helping it support our customers in the way they need it, and we welcome any new opportunities as they come.
Dirkson Charles (CEO and Executive Co-Chairman)
Yeah, if I can add, and by the way, Kristine, that's another really great question. Just wanna piggyback a little bit on what, where Ian was leading you. Yes, we think that we could solve a lot of the supply chain, I'll use the terminology, issues relative to the plethora of capabilities that we have, right? Which is why we think about our toolkit. And I will tell you that we've had numerous conversations with customers that lead to opportunities that's not adding to that $600 million at this point. I'll just give you an example, LMB.
There are a number of opportunities where we could solve issues on this side of the pond that's not being solved overseas because of the lack of the customer synergies that LMB had existing by itself, right? We'll be able to solve a lot more issues relative to supply chain because we can now introduce that capability to customers on this side of the pond. That's just one. There's a plethora of others. I wouldn't be surprised, if I'm giving a little bit of guidance here, if that $600 million went up significantly by the time we get to the next quarter in terms of the opportunity set. Driven by your question, there's gonna be a number of defense opportunities that we can be helpful with, adding those capabilities. Great question.
By the way, congratulations on the promotion, I heard. Thanks, Dirkson.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Sheila Kahyaoglu of Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.
Sheila Kahyaoglu (Managing Director and Airlines, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research)
Good morning, guys, and thank you so much. I have three questions, if it's okay.
Dirkson Charles (CEO and Executive Co-Chairman)
Thank you.
Sheila Kahyaoglu (Managing Director and Airlines, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research)
Maybe I'll start on the acquisitions, Harper and LMB. I know you guys have given lots of color, and I appreciate it, on LMB, what it does, and Harper too, given it's such a great supplier to Boeing. Maybe can you clarify the 100% proprietary products? How much of the process do you own, the manufacturing, the IP, it all? As I've been asked a few times, and I think, you know, there's some misconceptions around the type of assets you guys buy and what proprietary means. As you think about the scope, I think LMB makes a lot of sense, as you answered to Kristine, on expanding it. How do you think about other markets Harper or other suppliers Harper could get into? Thanks.
Dirkson Charles (CEO and Executive Co-Chairman)
No, another really good question. Let me start from your last, and I'll go to your initial question. Okay, let's start with Harper. 100% proprietary. 99.9%. Some of them are listening, so I'll be totally straight. 99.9% proprietary. The way we think about proprietary, I'll use this terminology. I know there's lawyers listening, but we think of it as where you are the primary source, I'll use that terminology, of the product that you're supplying. It's your design, 99.9% to Harper, their design, their names on the drawing. You cannot go anywhere else to get that part than to go to Harper.
Let's take that definition and expand it to the total portfolio of Loar, 'cause we get this question a lot. When we did our S-1 two years ago, we said 85% of our portfolio was proprietary. I will tell you this today, 'cause we just recently did that math, 85 is now 89%. It's all heading in the right direction. The reason being is because that's where the growth is coming from, our proprietary products, and that's where we're investing our capacity, in not just inorganically, but also organically. That has grown tremendously. The other place you can see it and check, and you can check the boxes to whether or not you have a business or a portfolio that's really proprietary, is to look at margins.
That's the one of the reasons we don't talk about it a lot, but it's one of the reasons why our margins continuously goes up and to the right? Because we're investing in the proprietary nature and products, where we're solving issues for our customers using those proprietary products. It is increasing tremendously. I'll go back to Harper. Harper is one of four companies, four out of thousands of suppliers to Boeing, that has a collaborative agreement. What does that mean? That means they're joined at the hip. That means they're partners. That means Boeing has an issue, they pick up the phone and they call Harper relative to capabilities that Harper has. Here's the beauty of what we've just done by adding them to the Loar platform. They now pick up the phone and call Harper.
Harper calls the group and says, "Can you solve any of these problems?" We're just expanding that collaboration with Boeing to include all of the Loar business units. That's the way we think about it. No, we're excited about LMB for the reasons I just answered Kristine's question on, but I'm super excited about Harper, and the relationships and the synergies we're gonna get from adding the company, its reputation, its capabilities, and most importantly, the talented folks in that building to our team.
Sheila Kahyaoglu (Managing Director and Airlines, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research)
No, it makes a lot of sense. I'm going to ask another one. You know, on these two deals, how do we think about the pathway to accretion on EPS, and how do we think about accretion on cash EPS?
Brett Milgrim (Executive Co-Chairman)
It's very simple, growth. Growth is a function of all the things that Dirkson just spoke about. In every deal we do, as I think you know, we've said many, many times, we look to see a path to doubling EBITDA, at least in no more than three-five years. Quite frankly, in certain cases, and I'll use one that you all know since it was the first deal we did going public, Applied Avionics is well ahead of that schedule. We think for LMB and Harper, and quite frankly, for any deal going forward, which we use jet financing for, which by definition will make it dilutive to net income, we think most of these deals, but in particular, Harper, because you asked about it, will be accretive within a year.
In 2027, on a net income basis, we think Harper will be accretive. That's a function of growing the earnings, growing the EBITDA, and, you know, doing all the things that we do to add value for these businesses. Does that answer your question?
Sheila Kahyaoglu (Managing Director and Airlines, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research)
Yes, it does. Thank you. Last one, the 34% commercial aftermarket growth was pretty stellar. Any way to parse that out?
Dirkson Charles (CEO and Executive Co-Chairman)
Yeah, let me start with this. I'm going to share a little bit about who I am. My lucky number is 13. Everybody's going to go, "Why are you saying this?" I'm saying this for one reason. I was born January thirteenth. 13 is my lucky number. The only time I don't like 13 is when I have to report earnings every 13 weeks. That's the only time I don't like 13. There's good and bad to reporting 13 weeks at a time, right? The great news is, we produce proprietary products in the aftermarket that's in high demand, right? We have customers who, I'll give you an example, distributors, who want to be exclusive, and we 100% say no, right? Again, the demand exists.
What we saw in the fourth quarter, tremendous demand for our parts, folks placing orders. It actually, I would say, positively surprised me. Again, it's only 13 weeks, right? Because, usually at the end of the calendar year, most people are trying to manage inventory. In this case, we have customers who want to distribute our products, and we're just seeing more of it. Now, going forward, as I said earlier, where we see growth and where we have really put our foot down on growth is on new business introductions. I'll use two examples, the only two I ever use. Brakes, we got about a dozen programs that we're working on. Half of them are now certified. The other half we hope to have done by the end of the year.
That's why I'm excited about the second half of the year, growth rate. I'll go back to Harper one last time. Harper makes the locking mechanisms that go in the cockpit door barrier for Boeing aircraft. Now, you all material say we're so on Airbus. Nobody ever asks about Boeing. Boeing... Yeah, I did say so. Boeing, now having Harper as part of us, it gives us the opportunity in the aftermarket to really chase those parts, right? In terms of cockpit door barriers. As we think about growth in 2026, commercial aftermarket will continue to be low double digits for the year, maybe a little choppy, but really, really strong given the strength in the fourth quarter that we've seen this year.
Sheila, if I can just say this, because thanks for asking the question. We see no slowdown in demand for commercial aftermarket.
Brett Milgrim (Executive Co-Chairman)
I think it's reflected in our numbers.
Sheila Kahyaoglu (Managing Director and Airlines, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research)
Awesome.
Brett Milgrim (Executive Co-Chairman)
Yeah.
Sheila Kahyaoglu (Managing Director and Airlines, Aerospace and Defense Equity Research)
Great. Thank you guys so much.
Dirkson Charles (CEO and Executive Co-Chairman)
Thanks, Sheila.
Operator (participant)
The next question is from Ken Herbert of RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed with your question.
Ken Herbert (Managing Director and Senior Aerospace and Defense Analyst)
Yeah. Hey, good morning, everybody. Just to follow up on that point, Dirkson, maybe, as we think about, you know, call it low double-digit organic growth in your commercial markets in the guide for 2026, can I interpret what you're saying, that new business will be the largest contributor to that growth relative to volume and price?
Dirkson Charles (CEO and Executive Co-Chairman)
Yes.
Ken Herbert (Managing Director and Senior Aerospace and Defense Analyst)
Okay.
Dirkson Charles (CEO and Executive Co-Chairman)
Can I?
Ken Herbert (Managing Director and Senior Aerospace and Defense Analyst)
Perfect. Thank you.
Dirkson Charles (CEO and Executive Co-Chairman)
That's the right short answer. Let me just say something relative to that, right? Because we say this all the time, and this is probably a good time to really send this message across. Brett always says, and this has been said all the time, that we use price as just the filler.
Brett Milgrim (Executive Co-Chairman)
Discretionary.
Dirkson Charles (CEO and Executive Co-Chairman)
Right? It's discretionary. Could we increase price significantly? 100%, every day of the week, all day long. That's what proprietary means, going back to the previous question. We want to grow up. Five years from now, we will be three times the size. Check that box. We want to grow up to be a company that people don't point at and go, "You are gouging me," right? "You are chasing price above everything else." We want to truly partner with our customers, right? Yes, Ken, the answer to your question is yes. We are focused on new business, and that's going to be a big driver.
Brett Milgrim (Executive Co-Chairman)
Yeah, just as it relates to price.
Dirkson Charles (CEO and Executive Co-Chairman)
You know, again, with the caveat being that we want to drive margins only one way. I think there is a slide in our investment deck that we put in the appendix that shows you over the last five, six, seven years, margins have only gone one way. We will have our margins start with a four in front of it. I think everybody on the IPO roadshow had asked us, "When are we going to reach 40% EBITDA margins?" Of course, you know, at the time, we can't give specific guidance in that regard, but here we are just two years later, and I can tell you unequivocally, margins are only going one way, and that's up.
Ken Herbert (Managing Director and Senior Aerospace and Defense Analyst)
Appreciate that, Brett.
Dirkson Charles (CEO and Executive Co-Chairman)
Okay.
Ken Herbert (Managing Director and Senior Aerospace and Defense Analyst)
Yeah.
Dirkson Charles (CEO and Executive Co-Chairman)
Go again.
Ken Herbert (Managing Director and Senior Aerospace and Defense Analyst)
Maybe just to clarify one other point, the up 34 in the fourth quarter, I think, Dirkson, was any part of that from, like, new distribution agreements or maybe any pull forward ahead of either price increases or inventory build in the channel? I just want to make sure there wasn't, not anything unusual, but understand the dynamics of that 34%.
Dirkson Charles (CEO and Executive Co-Chairman)
No, great question. The short answer, again, is no. No pull forward, no special distribution agreements. I will tell you that, we have distributors that are fighting over their end customer and wanting to be, good, you know, suppliers to them. Whether it's a kit that they're trying to put together and our parts are included, or they want it to be able to say, "I can, I can sell that part, that no one else can," right? We're just seeing more demand, Ken, but no pull ahead, none of that.
Ken Herbert (Managing Director and Senior Aerospace and Defense Analyst)
Okay, perfect. Just one final question on the 2026 guide. Do you how would you frame the risk around the commercial aftermarket versus OE growth? To what extent, maybe, have you sort of de-risked the guide relative to what could be choppiness on the OE side versus what sounds like pretty consistent sort of aftermarket performance?
Dirkson Charles (CEO and Executive Co-Chairman)
Great question. Let's start with OE. On the OE side, what we've done, if you take Boeing's and Airbus's build rates, depending on the product line that we're producing, we have discounted it anywhere from 10%-20%. 10 at the low end, 20 at the high end, relative to the build rates that people are projected. Could there be upside there? Absolutely. With regards to the aftermarket, yes, I do agree with you that we believe that that's going to continuously grow significantly, double digits. Again, the only problem I have is reporting every 13 weeks, right? Can we have a period of time where it's 14%, and then the next quarter, it's, you know, 9.5 or whatever? Absolutely.
Over the year and the long term, double-digit growth is what we see, Ken.
Ken Herbert (Managing Director and Senior Aerospace and Defense Analyst)
Perfect. Thanks, Dirkson. Nice results.
Dirkson Charles (CEO and Executive Co-Chairman)
Thank you so much, Ken.
Operator (participant)
There are no additional questions at this time. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Dirkson Charles for closing comments.
Dirkson Charles (CEO and Executive Co-Chairman)
Look, thanks, everyone, participating on today's call. I love it when we can share our story. We're super excited about our future. I'll say it for the third time, maybe the fourth. Given what we've done over the last 14 years, we expect to continue to do the same, which means Adjusted EBITDA goes from $1 today to $3 5 years from now. That's our focus, and that's how we want to build this business, and we want to build it in a very special way. We want to have great mates living in a great environment, not being gougers to our customers, but growing the business consistently. We want to build this aerospace and defense cash compounder for a very long time. Look, with that, I have things to say.
One, happy birthday, Ellen. Thanks for participating on the call. You know who you are. Two, I look forward to talking to you guys in 13 weeks, even though, you know, it's 13 weeks. Thanks, guys.
Operator (participant)
Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference.