LH
Loar Holdings Inc. (LOAR)·Q2 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 2024 delivered record net sales of $97.0M (+31.1% y/y) and Adjusted EBITDA of $35.0M (+26.3% y/y); diluted EPS was $0.09 and Adjusted EPS $0.13 .
- Mix-driven margin dynamics: Adjusted EBITDA margin was 36.1% (down ~140 bps y/y) on higher defense mix (22% of sales vs 18% y/y), acquisition dilution and public-company infrastructure costs, partly offset by pricing and operating leverage .
- Guidance raised across the board: FY24 net sales to $374–$378M (from $370–$374M), net income to $28.4–$29.6M, Adjusted EBITDA to $134–$136M, net income margin to ~8%, and Adjusted EPS to $0.44–$0.46; capex ~$11M, tax rate ~30%, D&A ~$40M, SBC ~$10M, interest expense ~$42M, diluted shares ~91M .
- Commercial aftermarket momentum is a core narrative: backlog set new records; book-to-bill “well above 1,” roughly 1.1–1.2; pricing/lead-time changes (90-day for best price) improved visibility to 3–5 months and shop load leveling .
- Potential stock reaction catalysts: visible aftermarket strength and broad-based demand, plus an active M&A pipeline (Applied Avionics acquisition announced; ~16x EV/EBITDA with tax benefits and path to double EBITDA in 3–5 years) .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record quarterly net sales ($97.0M) and Adjusted EBITDA ($35.0M), with organic net sales growth of 17.0% to $86.6M; CEO: “continued our record setting pace” .
- Aftermarket strength and improved visibility: backlog at new highs and book-to-bill well above 1; switch to 90-day lead-time model improved pricing “stickiness,” visibility (3–5 months), and shop-level load .
- Guidance raised on strong demand across end-markets; management confidence anchored in commercial aftermarket tailwinds, defense demand, and execution on value drivers .
What Went Wrong
- Margins compressed: Adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 36.1% (from 37.5% y/y) on higher lower-margin defense sales, acquisition dilution, and public company infrastructure costs .
- Boeing 737 MAX outlook cautious: CEO does not expect OEM-stated production rates; noted recent Boeing-related order push-outs, tempering near-term OEM assumptions .
- Productivity initiatives slower to realize benefits: facility move (CA to OH) taking longer, with associated synergies now expected in 2025 rather than 2024 .
Financial Results
Segment/end-market breakdown (quarterly):
Key operational data (select):
- Gross Profit ($M): $37.472 in Q2 2023; $44.433 in Q1 2024; $47.526 in Q2 2024 .
- CFO commentary: Defense +57%, commercial aftermarket +19%, commercial OEM +11% y/y in Q2; margin mix headwind mitigated by pricing/operating leverage .
Guidance Changes
Note: Q1 call cited pro forma annual interest expense of ~$26M post-IPO and rate reduction, while full-year guidance maintains ~$42M (timing and pro forma vs GAAP full-year basis) .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “In the second quarter we continued our record setting pace in net sales and Adjusted EBITDA… de-stocking give way to exceptional commercial aftermarket growth” .
- CFO: “Adjusted EBITDA margins remained strong at 36%, but were lower… result of the sales mix… temporary dilution from one of the acquisitions… and continued build-out of our infrastructure” .
- CEO on guidance: “We expect net sales between $374 million to $378 million… Adjusted EBITDA between $134 million and $136 million… net income between $28.4 million and $29.6 million… Adjusted EPS between $0.44 and $0.46” .
- CEO on Boeing/Airbus/OEMs: “We don’t believe what the OEM says… MAX… significantly less… we have… Boeing related order push-outs… Airbus… stronger… ‘other’ OEMs… are killing it” .
- Executive Co-Chair on Applied Avionics: “Active M&A market… Applied… ~16x with tax benefits… we need a path to doubling EBITDA in 3–5 years… we think we can do even better” .
Q&A Highlights
- Aftermarket outlook/book-to-bill: Backlog at new highs; book-to-bill “well above 1” (~1.1–1.2); quoting activity up y/y; management sees “blue skies” into H2 and early 2025 .
- Pricing/lead times: Move to 90-day lead times for best price improved visibility (3–5 months), pricing stickiness, and operations (level loading) .
- OEM rate expectations: Management plans below OEM-stated MAX rates; noted Boeing-related push-outs; Airbus and “other” OEMs robust .
- PMA pipeline: Multiple FAA applications pending; incremental to 2024 outlook; expected to drive 2025 .
- LTAs repricing: LTAs ~10% of revenue (mostly military); expect price realization impacting 2025 .
- Productivity initiative timing: CA→OH facility move benefits delayed to 2025; return-focused capex prioritized .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus estimates (EPS, revenue, EBITDA) for current/next quarter were unavailable at time of query due to data limits; estimate comparison vs Wall Street consensus is therefore not provided. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
- Implication: With FY24 guidance raised (sales, net income, Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EPS), sell-side models likely need upward revisions to match the revised ranges and reflect stronger aftermarket and defense contributions .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Aftermarket is the core growth engine: backlog at records, book-to-bill >1, pricing/lead-time changes expand visibility and operational efficiency—supporting sustained top-line momentum .
- Mixed margin backdrop near term: defense-heavy mix and post-IPO costs compress margins modestly; pricing and operating leverage partially offset; margin uplift likely as integration synergies and productivity initiatives mature into 2025 .
- OEM outlook conservative on MAX; Airbus/“other” OEMs are strong—portfolio diversity mitigates single-platform risk and supports balanced growth .
- Raised FY24 guidance is a positive inflection: higher sales, net income, Adjusted EBITDA, EPS, and net income margin signal confidence in end-market demand and execution .
- M&A remains a lever: Applied Avionics aligns with proprietary/aftermarket-rich profile; disciplined returns (doubling EBITDA in 3–5 years) suggest potential for accretive growth beyond organic drivers .
- 2025 setup: pricing actions on LTAs, PMA approvals, and delayed productivity benefits should support margin expansion and EPS trajectory into 2025 .
- Liquidity and capital structure improved post-IPO; despite a full-year interest expense of ~$42M, prior pro forma metrics show structural benefits from deleveraging and lower rates, aiding medium-term FCF .