DORIAN LPG LTD. (LPG)·Q2 2026 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q2 FY26 delivered a sharp sequential improvement on freight strength: Revenues $124.06M, Diluted EPS $1.30, Adjusted EPS $1.31, Adjusted EBITDA $85.72M; management declared an irregular $0.65 dividend (~$27.8M) payable Dec 2, 2025 .
• Versus prior quarter (Q1 FY26), revenue rose ~47% (to $124.06M from $84.21M), TCE increased to $53,725/day from $39,726/day, and Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled (to $85.72M from $38.58M) on stronger spot rates and lower bunkers .
• Versus prior year (Q2 FY25), revenue grew ~51% (from $82.43M), TCE rose 45% to $53,725/day, while daily vessel OpEx increased modestly to $10,705 due to dry-dock related items; G&A fell $4.5M YoY on lower bonuses .
• Against S&P Global consensus, results were below: EPS $1.31 vs $1.50*, revenue $124.06M vs $130.13M*, EBITDA $85.72M vs $91.45M*; management cited timing effects (load-to-discharge) and drydocking for TCE variance vs bookings .
• Near-term catalysts: irregular dividend, bookings for the Dec quarter >75% fixed at ~$57K/day TCE in Helios Pool, and easing U.S.–China tariff/port fee uncertainty supporting freight fundamentals .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Strong freight and TCE performance: Q2 TCE $53,725/day, with sequential monthly improvement; Helios Pool spot/COA TCE ~$53,500/day in the quarter .
• Significant profitability expansion: Adjusted EBITDA $85.72M and Adjusted EPS $1.31, driven by higher spot rates and lower bunker prices; CEO highlighted “record” global seaborne LPG volumes underpinning freight .
• Capital return and balance sheet strength: Irregular dividend $0.65 (~$27.8M); CFO cited $268.4M cash, debt-to-cap ~33.2%, net debt-to-cap ~16.4%, undrawn $50M revolver .

What Went Wrong

• Miss versus Street: EPS and revenue came in below S&P Global consensus*, with EBITDA also below; bookings/TCE recognition impacted by timing (load-to-discharge), off-hire from dry docks, and charter option changes .
• Drydock-related operating cost pressure: Daily vessel OpEx rose YoY to $10,705 per vessel/day primarily due to non-capitalizable drydock expenses .
• Derivative gains softened: Realized gain on derivatives fell to $0.53M vs $1.65M YoY, while interest income decreased $1.5M YoY on lower rates and cash balances .

Financial Results

Core P&L vs Prior Periods and Estimates

Notes: Values with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Margins

Calculation: Adjusted EBITDA / Revenues using cited figures.

Operational KPIs

YoY context (Q2 FY26 vs Q2 FY25): Revenue $124.06M vs $82.43M; TCE $53,725 vs $37,010; Vessel OpEx/day $10,705 vs $10,114; G&A $12.0M vs $16.5M .

Guidance Changes

Note: Management reiterates dividends are irregular and at Board discretion .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• CEO on dividend and market: “Our Board declared an irregular dividend of $0.65 cents per share… Global Seaborne LPG volumes set a record last quarter. The freight market improved supported by record exports from the U.S. and the Middle East.”
• CFO on bookings/capital: “We currently estimate that we have fixed just over 75% of the fixable days in the quarter at a TCE of about $57,000 per day… $268.4M of free cash… debt-to-total book capitalization 33.2% and net debt-to-total cap 16.4%… undrawn $50M revolver and $100M accordion.”
• Head of Energy Transition: “Scrubber vessel savings for the second fiscal quarter of 2026 amounted to $1,363,000… LPG economically attractive for our dual fuel vessels… fleet remains fully compliant with EU ETS, CII, EEXI, and Fuel EU Maritime.”

Q&A Highlights

• TCE realization vs bookings: Analyst noted $60K+ bookings for ~70% of Q2; management explained lower realized TCE due to load-to-discharge timing, off-hire from dry docks, and charter option changes; expects guidance to be more on target with drydock program completion .
• Spot rate momentum: CCO cited wait-and-see before U.S.–China meeting in Korea, postponement of port fees, and seasonal demand into winter as drivers of recent rate pickup .
• Tone: Balanced but confident; emphasis on agility amid geopolitical factors and operational cost control; reaffirmed irregular nature of dividend policy aligned with freight cyclicality .

Estimates Context

• Q2 FY26 below consensus: EPS $1.31 vs $1.50*, Revenue $124.06M vs $130.13M*, EBITDA $85.72M vs $91.45M*. Expect near-term estimate recalibration to reflect timing effects, drydock impacts, and recognized TCE versus bookings .
• Coverage light: Only ~2 revenue and ~4 EPS estimates*, increasing sensitivity to company-reported booking/TCE updates in modeling. Values with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Freight-led inflection: Sequential jump in TCE and EBITDA signals improving cycle; bookings imply continued strength into the Dec quarter (~$57K/day) .
• Capital returns continue but remain opportunistic: $0.65 irregular dividend underscores flexible policy tied to market conditions and balance sheet capacity .
• Cost discipline: Core cash G&A ~$7M and OpEx ex-drydock down to $9,474/day support margin capture in stronger rate environments .
• Watch geopolitics/regulation: Tariff truce extension and port fee postponement are supportive; any reversal could alter trade flows and ton-miles .
• Modeling caution: TCE recognition can diverge from bookings due to load-to-discharge timing and COA complexity; estimates likely to adjust lower post-miss* .
• Fleet positioning: Scrubber and dual-fuel LPG advantages, ammonia retrofit progress, and compliance readiness may enhance earnings resilience .
• Liquidity/optionality: Strong cash, low net leverage, and undrawn facilities provide flexibility for dividends, deleveraging, and fleet renewal .

Values with asterisk (*) retrieved from S&P Global.