Open Lending - Q1 2023
May 9, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good afternoon, and welcome to Open Lending's first quarter 2023 earnings conference call. As a reminder, today's conference call is being recorded. On the call today are Keith Jezek, CEO, and Chuck Jehl, CFO. Earlier today, the company posted its first quarter 2023 earnings release to its investor relations website. In the release, you will find reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures discussed on this call. Before we begin, I'd like to remind you that this call may contain estimated and other forward-looking statements that represent the company's view as of today, May 9th, 2023. Open Lending disclaims any obligation to update these statements to reflect future events or circumstances.
Please refer to today's earnings release and our filings with the SEC for more information concerning factors that could cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied with such statements. Now, I'll pass the call over to Mr. Keith Jezek. Please go ahead.
Keith Jezek (CEO)
Thank you, operator, good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for Open Lending's first quarter 2023 earnings conference call. For the first quarter, our results were ahead of our expectations, despite the economic and industry dynamics impacting our business. We face continued liquidity constraints at a majority of our credit union customers and the impact of rising interest rates on our business. We continue to experience demand-side challenges, specifically affordability, as near and non-prime consumers are being hit disproportionately by rising interest rates, resulting in lower disposable income. Consumer sentiment remains below its historical average. In addition, the used retail market for the past two years is as low as it has been in over a decade. However, we are seeing modest signs of improvement in the new auto market since we last spoke in February. Now let me turn to our Q1 highlights.
During the quarter, we certified 32,408 loans, generated total revenue of $38.4 million, gross profit of $32.9 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $21.2 million. We exceeded the high end of our Q1 guidance range for all metrics, certified loans, revenue, and adjusted EBITDA. I would like to thank all the team members at Open Lending for their contributions to these positive results. As I mentioned, the pandemic-related new automobile supply constraints are slowly improving. Specifically, semiconductor chip shortfalls have been mostly replenished. OEMs are running their plants with improved efficiency. Transportation bottlenecks have eased. Fleets have rebuilt their stock. Dealers are intelligently growing their new inventory.
Taking a closer look at the new auto retail market, at 16 million units, the new light vehicle seller in April was up 13.5% sequentially as compared to December and up 10% over April 2022. New vehicle inventory continues to expand, and in many instances, inventory is up nearly 70% year-over-year. Fleet sales also increased and are up 50% year-over-year and at 21.7% of total volume, the highest share since the pandemic. While improving new automobile dynamics are welcome news, in the used retail market, sales declined 8% in April from March and were down 8% from a year ago. The recovery in used supply has been nonlinear and has fluctuated month-to-month. Used supply is currently estimated at an average of 40 days, down from 49 days in January 2023.
The used auto retail market continues to show signs of pent-up demand due to affordability factors facing near and non-prime buyers. Consumers are holding onto their autos longer, but eventually the increased maintenance and repair costs will be outweighed by the benefit of getting into a newer vehicle. We have seen this dynamic in prior cycles and note that the average age of a used vehicle on the road is over 12 years old, an all-time high. This pent-up demand will create opportunity for Open Lending as used vehicle values moderate and interest rates decline. Like other consumer credit categories, auto loan delinquencies have continued to increase as a result of current economic conditions. Accordingly, we tightened our underwriting and in late March increased our vehicle value discount factor.
This action effectively increases our credit default insurance pricing to reflect and compensate us appropriately for the potential additional risk we are taking. With this incremental adjustment, our average credit default insurance premium has increased by an additional 5%. Recall that this incremental premium is in addition to the 12% premium increase in second quarter 2022. As always, we will continue to monitor risk and portfolio performance, and we have the flexibility and ability to make additional adjustments. Now, turning to other program underwriting changes we made in 2022 and early 2023, along with brief updates on each. In second quarter 2022, we made changes to expand loan limits and extend the term of qualifying vehicles to 84 months.
As of the first quarter 2023, 84-month term loans comprised 15% of our volume, and importantly, claims to date are lower than expected since our initial rollout. Their performance has yielded stronger unit economics based on higher credit default insurance premium and better than expected performance due to lower claims than modeled. As you may recall, we put in place tighter payment to income or PTI constraints at the onset of the pandemic. In second quarter of 2022, we initiated our new PTI pricing program, where loans with higher PTI ratios are charged a higher premium, and conversely, loans with lower PTI ratios receive a discounted premium. Early performance shows this enhancements has better aligned loss ratios across our program and is having a positive impact on volume. Earlier this year, we increased our allowable vehicle age from 9-11 years.
I would point out that we did not increase the mileage factor as this is the most significant driver of depreciation of a vehicle. This change provided a small increase to certified loan volume, but most importantly, reduced counter approvals, improved closure rates, and provided flexibility to our customers with the all-time high average age of used vehicles on the road without taking on much incremental risk. Along with the vehicle age update, we've reinstated our pre-pandemic policy for the loan approval expiration window from 30 days to 45 days for our direct and refinance channels. This change offers our customers and partners sufficient time needed to complete their respective funding processes.
Although we don't have any direct exposure to the recent banking crisis, I wanted to take a moment to address the current banking landscape and specifically how it relates to smaller banks and more importantly, to our core customer, credit unions. The deposit outflows experienced by some of the recent regional bank failures have not been seen in credit unions. Furthermore, credit unions continue to lend to high-quality consumers, their members, and given that they fundamentally operate more conservatively when it comes to managing their balance sheets with very little leverage, they are not pressured to engage in the type of investment activity seen recently by some of the failed institutions as they're mandated to serve their members, not maximize returns. The type of loans underwritten by credit unions are more conventional in nature.
It is more common for credit unions to have deliberate strategies when it comes to loan pricing from an asset and liability matching standpoint, which further strengthens their position through lending cycles as evidenced during the Great Recession. During that time, credit union deposits actually grew since they were viewed as a safer place by consumers to keep their money. On our last call, I shared our 2023 focus areas that we believe position us effectively for the current environment and market improvement as it comes. These are areas that support and strengthen our long-term competitive advantages and include further refining and optimizing our sales channels, enhancing our technology offering, and attracting and retaining talent. On sales, operations, and marketing, we are seeing good progress from the investments we made in 2022.
While we added eight new accounts in Q1 of 2023 as compared to 18 in Q1 of 2022, we achieved our goal of shifting our results to closing larger volume accounts with a higher targeted share of business to Open Lending. In addition, the new accounts added during the quarter represent a 100% increase in average target share to us per financial institution signed up as compared to Q1 of 2022. In addition, we continue to enroll financial institutions who operate loan origination systems for which we already have existing successful technology integration. As a result, we anticipate continued further improvement in streamlined workflow and onboarding processes to reduce the number of days to first revenue.
Our marketing team has been instrumental in supporting our sales team with a strong lead generation program, including increased media presence in both earned and paid channels, thought leadership based on proprietary research, targeted personalized outreach to institutions, robust industry event participation to generate leads, as well as the production of shareable campaign assets and other enabling sales tool. We believe that we have the right resources in place to continue executing our go-to-market sales strategy that will position us well as the industry recovers. Our account management team remains focused on engagement and collaboration with our existing customer base to both solidify and expand their use of our program. During these uncertain economic times, our team members continue to work with our clients to reinforce the risk mitigation value our program offers, especially as it relates to the runoff of existing auto loans.
One additional area of focus is assisting individual accounts in growing their lending footprint in their respective markets. We have also made strong progress on the technology front. In Q1, we completed the major milestone of deploying a new internal platform for claims adjudication. This platform not only brings notable efficiencies to our adjudication process, but also allows us to collect additional data needed for enhanced reporting and analytics. We're in the process of completing a transition to the public cloud, which will allow us to grow in a cost-efficient manner, bring enhanced security to our framework, and offer access to services and technologies not readily available in our existing on-prem environment. To date, we have achieved all major internal milestones for this important initiative. Finally, a significant program design change was introduced in the quarter that will streamline workflows and significantly increase efficiencies for our partners and clients.
As interest rates stabilize and our refinance channel volume returns, our lender partners will be positioned to support the expected larger volumes with Lenders Protection. Lastly, on talent, we remain focused on building a strong people strategy to support and expedite Open Lending's long-term growth objectives by hiring and retaining top talent. We will continue driving company culture centered on creating a diverse and collaborative environment to unlock value and foster growth for individuals, teams, and the business. That said, we will be measured and thoughtful as we add team members throughout the remainder of 2023. Having managed scaled businesses in the auto sector through the Great Recession, I continue to be encouraged by the response of our team and in our ability to manage through the current environment.
I remain confident about our position in 2023 and beyond, as we execute on our mission to help both lenders and underserved consumers. I believe our value proposition to the various players in the auto retail ecosystem is as strong as ever. We remain committed to our goal of gaining market share by signing new accounts and expect to be well-positioned to meet pent-up demand as the industry continues to recover. Now with that, I would like to turn the call over to Chuck to review Q1 in further detail, as well as provide our thoughts on the outlook for Q2. Chuck?
Chuck Jehl (CFO)
Thanks, Keith. During the first quarter of 2023, we facilitated 32,408 certified loans, compared to 43,944 certified loans in the first quarter of 2022. Total revenue for the first quarter of 2023 was $38.4 million, compared to $50.1 million in the first quarter of 2022. To break down total revenues in the first quarter of 2023, profit share revenue represented $18.6 million, program fees were $17.3 million, and claims administration fees and other were $2.5 million.
It is important to note that while our certified loan volume was down 26% in the first quarter of 2023 as compared to the first quarter of 2022, our program fee revenue was down only 12% due to mix of business certified, which resulted in higher program fee unit economics. Turning to profit share. I want to remind everyone that profit share revenue is comprised of the expected earned premiums, less the expected claims to be paid over the life of the contracts, less expenses attributable to the program. The net profit share to us is 72%, and the monthly receipts from our insurance carriers reduce our contract asset each period.
Profit share revenue in the first quarter of 2023, associated with new originations was $17.9 million, or $552 per certified loan, as compared to $25.7 million or $584 per certified loan in the first quarter of 2022. In first quarter of 2023, we recorded a positive $0.7 million change in estimated future profit share related to business and historic vintages. The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, which tracks the prices car dealers pay wholesale at auction for used cars is one of the industry factors we consider in evaluating our change in estimate each period. As you may recall, this index fell nearly 15% in 2022, the largest one-year decline in the history of the index.
However, in first quarter of 2023, the index increased 6.2% as compared to December. This was an unseasonable increase for the Manheim not seen since 2008. Accordingly, this increase was a positive impact on our contract asset. Another positive factor impacting the contract asset was slower prepay speeds due to the elevated interest rate environment and loans remaining in the portfolio longer than expected. Both positive events were offset by higher than anticipated loan default stress applied to the portfolio as a result of rising auto loan delinquencies and projected claim frequency. In comparison, during the first quarter of 2022, revenue included a positive $2.6 million change in estimated future revenues on certified loans originated in historical periods.
Gross profit was $32.9 million, and gross margin was approximately 86% in the first quarter of 2023, as compared to $45.3 million and gross margin of approximately 90% in the first quarter of 2022. Selling, general, and administrative expenses were $15.8 million in the first quarter of 2023, compared to $13 million in the first quarter of 2022, and compared to $17.2 million in the fourth quarter of 2022. The increase year-over-year is primarily due to additional team members to support our focus on our go-to-market sales strategy and investment in our technology. The decrease from fourth quarter 2022 is a result of our measured and controlled approach to incurring incremental cost in the current environment.
Operating income was $17.1 million in the first quarter of 2023, compared to $32.2 million in the first quarter of 2022. Net income for the first quarter of 2023 was $12.5 million, compared to net income of $23.2 million in the first quarter of 2022. Basic and diluted earnings per share was $0.10 in the first quarter of 2023, as compared to $0.18 in the previous year quarter. Adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2023 was $21.2 million, as compared to $33.8 million in the first quarter of 2022. There's a reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures that can be found at the back of our earnings press release.
We exited the quarter with $372.9 million in total assets, of which $210.6 million was in unrestricted cash, $65.9 million was in contract assets, and $63.9 million in net deferred tax assets. We had $167.3 million in total liabilities, of which $146.6 million was in outstanding debt. We generated $27.5 million in cash during the quarter before repurchasing 3.1 million shares of our common stock for approximately $21.3 million at an average price of $6.87 per share. We have approximately $36 million remaining under our Board approved share repurchase program. Moving on to our guidance for Q2 '23.
While supply may have troughed and began improving, our near and non-prime consumers are continuing to feel the impact of high financing costs compared to a year ago and the upward pressure on affordability and overall demand. We are continuing to monitor our data, looking for indications that affordability is beginning to stabilize. This continues to be a challenge. The auto sector has clearly felt the effects of the Federal Reserve's initiative to tighten monetary policy. Conversely, should the Fed lean more dovish going forward, we would expect to see an improvement in our business based on our analysis of prior recessionary cycles. Until we have more visibility and certainty into our customers auto portfolio growth, we feel it continues to be prudent to provide guidance on a quarterly basis.
Guidance for the second quarter of 2023 is as follows: total certified loans to be between 29,000 and 33,000, total revenue to be between $33 million and $37 million, Adjusted EBITDA to be between $16 million and $20 million. In our guidance, we have taken the following factors into consideration. The affordability index of our target credit score borrower due to continued elevated used car values, inflation, elevated interest rates compared to year-ago levels, and the financial condition of the near and non-prime borrower. We have a strong balance sheet, which has allowed us to thoughtfully invest in our business and repurchase our common stock at attractive prices while maintaining financial flexibility that will position us very well as demand fundamentals improve. We would like to thank everyone for joining us today. We will now take your questions.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. If you would like to register a question, please press the one followed by the four on your telephone. You'll hear a three-tone prompt to acknowledge your request. If your question has been answered and you'd like to withdraw your registration, please press the one followed by the three. One moment please for the first question, which comes from the line of David Scharf with JMP Securities. Please go ahead.
David Scharf (Managing Director)
Hi. Yeah, good afternoon. Thanks for taking my questions. Keith, wanted to start out on revisiting just the landscape at the core credit union funding sources. Appreciate the color on sort of deposit trends there. You know, I'm looking at kind of my notes from last quarter, and I know at the time, you had mentioned particularly with the rise in rates that, you know, they obviously have probably more alternatives in terms of asset classes to invest in now. Can you just provide an update on what you're seeing in terms of kind of the overall origination pool out there? Another way of saying just, you know, how competitive are auto loans or attractive are they, you know, relative to other asset classes, over the last few months?
Chuck Jehl (CFO)
Yeah. I certainly appreciate the thoughtful question. You know, credit unions have been wonderfully resilient for the first quarter of 2023. They maintained their leadership in loan originations, producing 35% of all new loan originations, you know, out there. They've maintained their first place position over banks then captives. They are continuing to do very, very well. As you know, the way the source for them to replenish liquidity is through deposits, through the runoff of existing loans, and through securitizations. I know firsthand through conversations with, you know, principals at some of our large customers that they're working diligently on progressing on all three of those fronts. I just have to say that they've been incredibly resilient.
You know, if you look at our numbers for Q1, back out the refi channel and look at credit unions only, we're actually up 13% quarter-on-quarter from the same time last year for our core credit union customer base. The credit unions have been very, very resilient and are doing a wonderful job.
David Scharf (Managing Director)
Got it. No. That's helpful. As a follow-up, maybe staying on sort of the same general topic. You know, when you increase, effectively increase the premiums on default policies, can you talk about, I guess, number one, I assume the credit union, you know, assumes that added expense. You know, just based on what you're seeing from competitors, you know, how does that impact the competitiveness of your product when you implement another premium increase?
Chuck Jehl (CFO)
Yeah, for sure. You know, one of the enduring value propositions that we have is that all of the costs of the program are first and foremost success based only. Secondly, they're all rolled into the contract rate with the consumer. None of these costs are borne by the credit union themselves. They're flowed through to the end consumer. When we raise the premium, it doesn't have the effect at all of increasing the expenses of our credit union partners or any of our partners for that matter, at all. Of course, we take into account the competitiveness of the resulting rate and model in, you know, decreases or increases in volume accordingly, and have been very pleased with the performance of this most recent initiative.
David Scharf (Managing Director)
Got it. Thank you very much.
Chuck Jehl (CFO)
Thank you, Dave.
Operator (participant)
The next question comes to line of Bob Napoli with William Blair. Please go ahead.
Spencer Janes (Analyst)
Hi, this is Spencer Janes on for Bob Napoli. Can you guys hear me okay?
Chuck Jehl (CFO)
Yeah. Hi, Spencer.
Spencer Janes (Analyst)
Hi. I was wondering if you could maybe talk through some of the swing factors within the guidance that might lead you to land at the higher end or the lower end of your third range?
Chuck Jehl (CFO)
Yeah. Yeah, sure. This is Chuck, Spencer. You know, as we think about the guidance, you know, obviously the overall, you know, macro environment and auto industry, you know, leading indicators that we look at and, you know, the elevated, you know, used car values, you know, obviously the Manheim in the prepared comments you saw where it actually unseasonably went up, not seen since 2008. You know, the continued, you know, consumer sentiment, you know, where it's at, you know, inflation as well as, you know, interest rates and the unprecedented rate environment over the last, I guess, 10 actions now over the last year, which is about 500 points in rates.
All of those things, you know, the timing of that and maybe as affordability, which, you know, we talk supply is improving a bit, but that's on the new front. If you think about our business, you know, being primarily used, you know, affordability is still the demand, you know, impact. As affordability for the near and non-prime consumer improves, you know, that'll help us, you know, get to the high end, or you know, or to the midpoint, or exceed. You know, or exceed that is just more improvement there around the overall macro.
Spencer Janes (Analyst)
Okay, thank you. Would you maybe say, if I'm hearing you correctly, that the midpoint of guidance assumes some incremental improvements in affordability. Is that fair?
Chuck Jehl (CFO)
Yeah, I think the midpoint, you know, we feel good about the midpoint of the guide, you know, based on current conditions. You know, we were really proud of the efforts of our collective team in this environment in Q1. You know, as Keith pointed out in the call, you know, we exceeded certs, you know, revenue and adjusted EBITDA on all fronts. You know, we're gonna do everything we can to execute and run the business and do, you know, and control what we can, so.
Spencer Janes (Analyst)
Thank you. Appreciate it. I'll get back in the queue.
Chuck Jehl (CFO)
You bet. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
The next question comes from the line of Joseph Vafi with Canaccord. Please go ahead.
Joseph Vafi (Senior Fintech and Digital Assets Analyst)
Hey, guys. Good afternoon. Thanks for taking the questions. You know, maybe an update first on your insurance carrier partners, you know, given the news last quarter on CNA, how that is going, you know, relative to the existing ones and, you know, volumes to each and any other comments on the carriers, and then I have a follow-up.
Chuck Jehl (CFO)
Yeah. Hey, Joe. This is Chuck. Good to hear from you. Yeah, you know, as you mentioned, you know, CNA gave us, you know, the notice last quarter of, you know, notice to not write new business, you know, after this year. You know, I'll tell you, it's been very good transition so far with CNA. You know, they're still writing new business. You know, we're transitioning it over time, but, you know, they'll write that through the balance of the year. Keep in mind, they'll still be, you know, an insurance carrier for, you know, many loans that they've written that are in the pool, you know, since, I believe, 2017 when they came on. It's orderly.
It's a good relationship and we feel really good about that transition. You know, I think the key is, you know, with our three carriers that we have today, we have plenty of capacity, you know, for our 23 and beyond growth of our business, as we look forward into 24 and beyond. We feel really good about the capacity of our three carriers collectively.
Joseph Vafi (Senior Fintech and Digital Assets Analyst)
Got it. That's helpful. You know, just kinda looking at, you know, at a high level in this, you know, this used car market, and Keith can provide some insight here. You know, it feels like there's kind of a soft landing, hard landing, you know, potential scenarios that could play out. Obviously, if, you know, if inventories on the used front improve pretty quickly, you know, we may see, you know, more cert volume. You know, if it increased quickly, I'd assume that, you know, prices would be coming down too.
You know, how are you thinking about the inputs to your model, you know, you know, I think, you know, relative to pricing, used car pricing and how that may affect your underwriting if, you know, we were to see, you know, the used car market kind of, recover here with higher inventories rather quickly? Obviously, we got interest rates, and, you know, a few other moving parts there. Just any color on that.
Keith Jezek (CEO)
Yeah. I mean, I think you captured it all pretty well in just your question. This is Keith speaking. Yeah, we're certainly looking at volumes, you know, being at lows in the used market, and that supply side, you know, problem is also compounded by, you know, problems with affordability, which we've enumerated. I think on the good side of the equation, that affordability is getting slightly better. You know, the Cox Moody Index, which we track pretty regularly, you know, has been up at all-time highs as recently as December. It's ticked down over the last 3 months, so that's a little sign of relief to affordability. Especially affordability hits, you know, our cohort of consumers, you know, especially hard. We're seeing a little sign of improvement there, albeit affordability still remains at a very, you know, elevated levels compared, you know, to historical norms.
Joseph Vafi (Senior Fintech and Digital Assets Analyst)
Great. Thanks, Keith.
Chuck Jehl (CFO)
Joe, one thing I'd add is, you know, on the premium increase that we discussed, the collateral adjustment that we put in late March, you know, that's obviously is, you know, for the environment where the elevated used car values are higher. You know, we felt it was prudent to, you know, similar to what we did in Q2 of 2022, to put an adjustment in to appropriately price, you know, our premium for the risk we're taking in this environment. That's really a, you know, a move to, you know, preserve and protect our unit economics as well as, you know, reward the company for the risk we take.
Joseph Vafi (Senior Fintech and Digital Assets Analyst)
Sure. Thanks a lot, guys.
Chuck Jehl (CFO)
Yeah. Thank you, Joe.
Keith Jezek (CEO)
No, thank you.
Operator (participant)
As a reminder, to register for a question, please press the one followed by the four on your telephone keypad. The next question comes from the line of Vincent Caintic with Stephens. Please go ahead.
Vincent Caintic (Senior Specialty Finance Analyst)
Good afternoon, thanks for taking my questions. First question, we've been tracking the OEM incentive volumes, and it does seem like they've reflected and started to pick back up again. Was wondering if you're seeing improving discussions or a improving volumes with OEMs. If maybe there can be discussions in terms of just new OEMs or maybe some programs with specific vehicles. Thank you.
Keith Jezek (CEO)
Yeah, I appreciate the question, and this is Keith. You know, we are very pleased with our, you know, current OEM captive customers. They're up sequentially quarter-on-quarter, so Q4 to Q1 of this year. They're up year-on-year, so this quarter compared to last year. I think you kind of hit the nail on the head. The little bounce that we're seeing in new SAR driven by a little lift in incentives is flowing through to our customers and pleased to see that and always pleased to partner with them. As it relates to future prospects, I can safely say that we have the largest number of prospects in our pipeline than we've ever had before. That's including OEM captives, you know, very large, you know, banks and financing sources.
you know, our value proposition is as strong as it's ever been, certainly checking the boxes of, you know, legislative requirements such as CRA, certainly anticipating depreciation of assets. We're very pleased. Of course, these sales cycles are longer in nature than others. We wanna be very cautiously optimistic, but pleased with the progress we're making on that front.
Vincent Caintic (Senior Specialty Finance Analyst)
Okay, great. Thanks for that. Just following up on the profit share, so understanding that you tightened your underwriting for March, I was wondering, you know, if you could talk about what macro assumptions are built into the profit share, and if we should be expecting that prospective changes that were highlighted in the slides, that prospective changes now comes, you know, back down or if that maybe just continues to be volatile. Thank you.
Chuck Jehl (CFO)
This is Chuck. I'll take the question. You know, it will kind of dovetail back to what we discussed on the year-end call. You know, what we've done is in the, you know, the 32,400 search that we originated in Q1, you know, those were at the $552 profit share unit economics. You know, that's booked to a 62% loss ratio. I just wanna point out that that's got a 23% stress to our 50%, you know, benchmark or target loss ratio. We feel like, you know, we've got an adequate stress built into the new originations that we're putting on.
You know, we've put this vehicle, additional vehicle value discount in place that raise premium, that'll safeguard future periods, originations in these, in the current conditions. You know, as we think about kind of a good number to model as you think about and you and the rest of the sales side is, you know, at 550 is a good number for our profit share where we are today. You know, we'll continue. It's a robust quarterly process. We, you know, with our risk team, very talented risk team. Keith and I are very involved in the process, and there's a lot of inputs.
You know, it's severity of loss, it, you know, which is, you know, tied to the, you know, obviously closely to the Manheim, as well as, you know, predicting defaults and default frequency as well as prepay speeds. You know, what we saw in this quarter is on the profit share, you know, the Manheim went up unseasonably, and that was a positive impact in our, in our change in estimate. We do stress defaults because, you know, the rise in delinquencies as well as defaults that we project into the future. That's kind of that if you think about that, realized in Q1 and then that perspective change, it was a net, you know, call it $700,000 CIE change in estimate.
As we think forward, we feel like we've got adequate stress into the future on the current vintages that are on the books and feel good about where we are. Obviously, you know, it's facts and circumstances based, and we'll address it each quarter.
Vincent Caintic (Senior Specialty Finance Analyst)
Great. Very helpful. Thanks so much.
Chuck Jehl (CFO)
Yeah. Thank you, Vincent.
Operator (participant)
The next question comes to line of Peter Heckmann with D.A. Davidson. Please go ahead.
Peter Heckmann (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Good afternoon, gentlemen. Thanks for taking the questions. I didn't hear you comment, and I apologize if you had, but on the OEMs combined, actually looks like up 12% year-over-year. Can you talk about some of the dynamics behind that and whether that could be sustainable? You know, do you think I mean, I know you're not giving guidance for the year, but I guess, what are you thinking about for the second what's implied in your second quarter guidance?
Chuck Jehl (CFO)
Yeah. Yeah. Hi, Pete. This is Chuck. Yeah, you know, we've been pleased the last couple of quarters with, you know, the sequential, growth in our, in our 2 OEMs. If you think about it, you're absolutely right. you know, Q1, you know, year-over-year is about, a 12% increase, in OEMs. Sequentially from Q4 to about a 7%. We were pleased to see that, you know, improvement, you know, Q4 to Q1. Then in our, you know, in our Q2, you know, guide that we put out, you know, I'd tell you that we think it'd be comparable, you know, in that range where we were at in Q1 and maybe slightly better. We are encouraged with the OEMs and that volume picking back up as incentives have, you know, ticked back in a bit, so.
Peter Heckmann (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Okay. All right. That's good to hear. Then with that comment then it would imply that you don't expect your refi partners really to kick in any material way in the second quarter. I guess, do you have any visibility to that?
Chuck Jehl (CFO)
Yeah, it's a good question. You know, refi, you know, our supplemental that got posted to the website, when the release went out, you know, you can see, you know, Q1 of 2023 refi's, you know, at that 8% of our overall search compared to, you know, 1 year ago, right at 40%. Clearly 1 year is a big change. You know, we talked about the rate environment and the, you know, the 500+ you know, points that the Fed has taken action. You know, we, you know, in our current guide, you know, we don't anticipate in the Q2 guide that refi returns, you know, during that time and, you know, and we will continue to monitor that, no big change there for Q2.Especially with the Fed's action, you know, this week, you know, with 25 bps or late last week. Excuse me.
Peter Heckmann (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Right. Okay. No. That's helpful. Just if I could sneak just one more in. It again, just trying to infer from kind of the average revenue per cert implied in second quarter guidance. It doesn't appear that you or it seems like the average program fee would revert, you know, closer to $500 or at least revert back down from the first quarter high.
Chuck Jehl (CFO)
Yeah. I'd say on the program fee in that, you know, $500+ range for the program fee would be a good estimate.
Peter Heckmann (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Okay, I appreciate it.
Chuck Jehl (CFO)
You bet. Thanks, Pete.
Operator (participant)
As a reminder, to register for a question, please press the one followed by the four on your telephone keypad. We now have a question from the line of John Davis with Raymond James. Please go ahead.
John Davis (Payments and Fintech Analyst)
Hey, good afternoon, guys. Keith, just wondered, and I apologize if I missed this earlier, commentary on just the financial institutions liquidity, any kind of pullback from your banks and credit unions on the willingness to fund these loans, giving liquidity challenges that they may or may not have, obviously, depending on financial institution. Just curious on any kind of change in behavior from your FIs?
Keith Jezek (CEO)
Yeah. This is Keith. You know, I did mention earlier and, happy to, restate it, you know, certainly, you know, what we have seen is for our credit union core customer base, ex refi, you know, and others, that the actual number of certified loans quarter-on-quarter is up 13%. You know, despite everything that we talk about with liquidity challenges and these restraints, they are still making loans, and they've maintained their number one position in loan origination, generation compared to banks and to captives. They are strong and are doing very well and are doing well on our program.
John Davis (Payments and Fintech Analyst)
Okay. No, that's helpful. You know, as we think about the 2Q cert guide, obviously you guys went public via SPAC when, you know, COVID, and there's been a lot of different things that are going on. You know, the guide implies, I think, flat to slightly down certs in 2Q. Anything from a seasonality perspective, or is this just kind of your best guess? I don't know if historically, like, Q2 is down from Q1. Just any context behind the guide. I heard that the refis are, you know, not expected to come back in any meaningful way. Any color there would be helpful.
Chuck Jehl (CFO)
John, it's Chuck. You know, you know the midpoint of the cert guide is, you know, call it 31,000 certs. That'd be down slightly to the midpoint of where we exited, which was at the high end of the Q1 guide at 32,400. March, I just point out March is seasonally a high month for the company with the tax refunds. As we think about, you know, trends into second quarter, you know, April, you know, we felt good about April in comparison to our, you know, our reforecast as well as our guide. We'll continue to monitor through May and June, but feel good about the guide that we put out there. Just want to point out March is seasonally a high month.
John Davis (Payments and Fintech Analyst)
Okay. Appreciate it. Thanks, guys.
Chuck Jehl (CFO)
Yeah, thanks, John.
Operator (participant)
We have a follow-up question from, Bob Napoli with William Blair. Please go ahead.
Spencer Janes (Analyst)
Hi, this is Spencer again, and taking advantage of the busy night for everyone with a follow-up. Could you maybe just remind us the breakdown in that core credit union and bank channel between credit unions and banks? Just clarify if you happen to see any softness with certain bank customers, albeit that's probably a small piece of the, that total channel.
Chuck Jehl (CFO)
Yeah. Spencer, are you just looking for the breakdown of the certs between credit union and banks? You know, of the, you know, the call it 26,362 certs that we did for the quarter? It's primarily credit unions, I'd point out.
Spencer Janes (Analyst)
Okay. Understood.
Chuck Jehl (CFO)
I'd say 85%-90% of that is credit unions versus banks. We just roll our regional banks up with that in the supplemental.
Spencer Janes (Analyst)
Understood. Thank you. The 26,400 number is what I should be looking at. That's 85%-90%.
Chuck Jehl (CFO)
That's right. That's right. That's primarily credit unions.
Spencer Janes (Analyst)
Understood.
Chuck Jehl (CFO)
Yeah.
Spencer Janes (Analyst)
Credit union, correct. Thank you.
Chuck Jehl (CFO)
Okay. You bet. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
There are no further questions at this time. I'll turn the call back to you. Please continue with your presentation and/or closing remarks.
Keith Jezek (CEO)
Well, I wanna thank everybody for joining us today. We're pleased with the results that we just exhibited for Q1. Again, wanna send a sincere and heartfelt thank you to all of the Open Lending employees that made it possible. Thank you.
Chuck Jehl (CFO)
Yeah. Thank you. Have a great day. Thanks for joining us.
Operator (participant)
That does conclude the conference call for today. We thank you for your participation, and I please disconnect your line.