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LIGHTPATH TECHNOLOGIES INC (LPTH)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 FY2025 revenue was $9.17M (+19.1% YoY) with gross margin at 29.1%; revenue beat consensus ($8.67M*) while EPS of -$0.09 missed consensus (-$0.048*) as higher OpEx (G5 acquisition-related costs, added SG&A, amortization) outweighed mix-driven margin gains .
- Mix shift to higher-margin assemblies/modules and engineering services drove margin expansion; management highlighted multiple defense camera orders across SPEIR and border security and a 90-day bookings tally of ~$19M following the G5 acquisition .
- Backlog rose to $27.4M exiting Q3; cash increased to $6.48M, with total debt at $5.5M; management expects gross margin to trend higher in Q4 with a full quarter of camera shipments, and EBITDA breakeven to be “close” in Q4 .
- Near-term catalysts include continued SPEIR deliveries, potential Lockheed NGSRI selection later in CY2025/early CY2026, and accelerating Germanium substitution with DoD-supported capacity expansion for BlackDiamond materials .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Margin expansion: gross margin rose to 29.1% from 20.9% YoY, driven by higher assemblies/modules and engineering services mix; assemblies/modules grew 123% YoY to $1.9M .
- Strategic execution: “The closing of our acquisition of G5 Infrared… helped to accelerate execution of our strategic vision to become a leading vertically-integrated infrared imaging solutions provider” — Sam Rubin .
- Defense momentum: Initial $2.2M SPEIR EMD camera order from L3Harris, $4.8M qualification order (new defense customer), and $4.9M follow-on order (existing defense customer) build pipeline visibility .
What Went Wrong
- EPS miss vs consensus: -$0.09 actual vs -$0.048* estimate as OpEx increased to $6.0M (+42.9% YoY) reflecting ~$0.7M G5 acquisition expenses, ~$0.4M added SG&A from G5, and ~$0.3M higher amortization .
- Program slippage: “Apache program… encountered some delays… completely on us… biting off something big and not chewing it fast enough,” tied to BDNL-8 capacity constraints and scheduling .
- Supply chain volatility: China-related material export issues (including non-Germanium optics) caused lingering timing risks; management mitigated via multi-location manufacturing and customer acceptance of tariff pass-throughs .
Financial Results
Segment revenue breakdown (product mix shift supportive of margins):
Key KPIs and non-GAAP:
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “The closing of our acquisition of G5 Infrared… helped to accelerate execution of our strategic vision to become a leading vertically-integrated infrared imaging solutions provider in the $9 billion infrared imaging market.” — Sam Rubin .
- “We expect continued momentum… with our Germanium-free BlackDiamond… With supply chain issues plaguing competing Germanium-based solutions… our BlackDiamond products are becoming increasingly important to customers.” — Sam Rubin .
- “We are now starting to deliver flightworthy hardware… and believe the U.S. Army could potentially make a contractor selection decision late this year or early next year.” — Sam Rubin (Lockheed NGSRI) .
- “We expect the gross margin from this quarter to next quarter to go up because we’ll have a full quarter of assemblies and modules and cameras in.” — CFO Albert Miranda .
- “The expectation is for the combined companies to generate $51,000,000 in the twelve months following the acquisition.” — CFO Albert Miranda .
Q&A Highlights
- Backlog and margin trajectory: Backlog ended March at $27.4M; gross margin expected to increase in Q4 with full-quarter camera shipments .
- OpEx normalization: Excluding amortization and extraordinary M&A, combined OpEx run-rate targeted at ~$5M per quarter post-Q4 .
- EBITDA outlook: Q4 EBITDA breakeven “close” given timing of large camera systems shipments starting mid-June .
- Program delays & capacity: Apache delay attributed to BDNL-8 capacity allocation; DoD supporting expansion of BlackDiamond capacity .
- Earn-out economics: G5 earn-out requires ≥$21M revenue and 20% standalone EBITDA; tracking to plan with ~5 weeks of integrated data; bookings at ~$19M through Q4 window .
Estimates Context
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Implications: Q3 revenue beat consensus (+$0.50M) on stronger mix and camera-related momentum, while EPS missed (-$0.05) due to elevated OpEx (M&A, amortization, interest). Prior quarters showed revenue shortfalls vs consensus amid December supply chain issues; estimates likely need upward revision for near-term revenue (cameras) and continued caution on EPS until OpEx normalizes .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Mix-led margin expansion continues as assemblies/modules and engineering services scale; expect further margin improvement in Q4 with a full quarter of cameras — constructive for gross profit trajectory .
- Revenue visibility improving: SPEIR ($2.2M EMD), border security ($4.8M qualification), and defense follow-on ($4.9M) underpin backlog and support near-term shipments; watch conversion timing into Q4/Q1 .
- EPS pressure near term reflects integration and amortization costs; management targets ~$5M quarterly OpEx run-rate post-Q4, supporting eventual EBITDA leverage as camera mix scales .
- NGSRI decision window (late CY2025/early CY2026) remains a asymmetric upside catalyst; flightworthy deliveries underway — track test outcomes this summer/fall .
- BlackDiamond substitution is accelerating, with DoD-supported capacity expansion and customer redesigns; structural moat against Germanium supply constraints strengthens multi-year thesis .
- OGI camera commercialization hinges on near-term quantification testing; furnace cameras ramping provide incremental industrial tailwinds in the interim .
- Trading lens: Expect estimate revisions higher for revenue near term (cameras/backlog conversion) while EPS normalization lags; beat/miss volatility likely driven by shipment timing and non-operating items until integration costs roll off .