LS
LIQUIDITY SERVICES INC (LQDT)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 FY24 delivered revenue of $106.9M (+34% y/y) and adjusted EBITDA of $14.5M (+13% y/y); GMV was $361.0M (+14% y/y). Results landed at or near the high end of prior guidance, with adjusted EPS at $0.32 versus the guided $0.25–$0.32 range, a modest positive surprise vs guidance driven by RSCG purchase program expansion and GovDeals’ take-rate uplift .
- Mix shift toward Retail Supply Chain Group (RSCG) purchase programs lifted revenue faster than GMV; GovDeals’ revenue growth outpaced GMV on expanded services. This boosted the revenue/GMV take rate to ~29.6% in Q4, up from ~24.6% in Q3 .
- Q1 FY25 outlook calls for GMV of $350–$385M, GAAP EPS of $0.08–$0.16, adjusted EPS of $0.18–$0.26, and adjusted EBITDA of $9.5–$12.5M; management also guided to ~80% consignment GMV, revenue/GMV in the low-30% range, and total segment direct profit as % of revenue in the low-40% range .
- Strategic catalysts: authorization of an additional $10M share repurchase, continued AI-driven platform enhancements, and a medium-term path toward $2B GMV and $100M annual EBITDA through organic growth and bolt-ons; management targets “next few years” for these milestones, with credible execution levers across segments .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
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What Went Well
- RSCG posted new quarterly records in GMV ($95.5M), revenue ($73.7M), and segment direct profit, as retailers expanded purchase programs and sell-in-place consignment solutions; Machinio set another revenue record .
- GovDeals delivered double-digit GMV (+14%) and revenue (+26%) growth with a higher blended take rate due to service expansion (including Sierra acquisition) .
- Management highlighted AI/machine-driven functionality improving descriptions, matching, merchandising, onboarding and retargeting, and mobile experience to raise participation and recovery; incremental investment is focused on margin expansion rather than heavy spend .
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What Went Wrong
- CAG GMV fell 2% y/y and revenue declined 17% on lower availability of large spot purchase transactions with international clients; segment direct profit fell 12% .
- RSCG’s mix shift toward purchase programs tempered segment direct profit margin percent y/y and sequentially, even as absolute profits grew on volume .
- From prior quarter context, management had cited softening prices in GovDeals (vehicles/construction equipment) and macro-related delays/cancellations in CAG projects—risks to monitor into FY25 .
Financial Results
Segment breakdown (Q4 y/y):
KPIs (Q4 y/y):
Notes: Consignment sales were 82% of consolidated GMV in Q4 FY24, contributing to the take-rate dynamics alongside increased RSCG purchase flows .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO (prepared remarks): “Our healthy fourth quarter results capped a successful year of market share expansion and consistent growth… each of our segments achieved double-digit annual GMV growth… we grew our auction participants and completed transactions by 22% and 12% y/y… We converted this growth to over $22 million in operating cash flow in the fourth quarter” .
- Strategy and targets: “Our leadership team has now set its sights on reaching the $2 billion annual GMV milestone… towards attaining the $100 million of annual EBITDA milestone… we expect to realize these goals in the next few years” .
- CFO (details): “Revenue was $106.9 million, up 34%… GAAP EPS $0.20; non-GAAP adjusted EPS $0.32… adjusted EBITDA $14.5 million, up 13%… cash and investments of $155.5 million; zero debt” .
- Segment color: “Retail… up 28% GMV, up 49% revenue… GovDeals GMV up 14%, revenue up 26%… CAG down 2% GMV, down 17% revenue…” .
- Outlook framing: Mix to drive ~80% consignment GMV, revenue/GMV ~30%, segment direct profit/revenue in low-40% in Q1 FY25; OpEx seasonally higher in Q1 with leverage expected in 2H .
Q&A Highlights
- Buyer growth drivers: Participant expansion broad-based, led by RSCG and GovDeals; Sierra acquisition not the primary catalyst; value proposition to SMBs and consumers remains strong .
- Investment cadence: Heavier investments made in prior years; going forward focused, incremental investments in AI/machine-driven features to expand margins and improve mobile experience and recovery .
- Long-term targets: $2B GMV and $100M EBITDA “certainly inside of 5 years… next few years,” supported by marketplace scale, value-added non-GMV services, and bolt-on M&A; Liquidity Services positioned as consolidator of choice .
- Public sector real estate: Record $8.3M building sale highlights opportunity; category has single-digit take rate but solid direct profit potential; expect contribution to $2B GMV journey .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus (EPS and revenue) was unavailable at time of analysis due to request limits; we attempted to retrieve but could not complete. As a result, we cannot benchmark Q4 FY24 vs Street consensus here.
- Versus company guidance, Q4 results were at or near the high end: GMV $361.0M (guided $330–$365M), adjusted EPS $0.32 (guided $0.25–$0.32), and adjusted EBITDA $14.5M (guided $12–$15M), reflecting stronger revenue take-rate from RSCG purchase program expansion and GovDeals service mix .
- Forward estimate implications: Q1 FY25 guidance implies y/y improvement with mix-driven take-rate in low-30% and low-40% for total segment DP/revenue, but RSCG margin percent to remain tempered vs last year given purchase mix; models may need higher revenue and lower RSCG margin rates, with EBITDA tracking in guided range .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Mix tailwinds boosted revenue growth and take rates: RSCG purchase programs and GovDeals service expansion drove revenue up 34% on 14% GMV growth, lifting revenue/GMV to ~29.6% in Q4 .
- Margin-rate headwinds offset by scale: RSCG margin percent compressed on purchase mix, but absolute segment profit grew; consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin moderated to ~13.6% on heavier OpEx and mix .
- Guidance execution: Q4 landed at/high end of guidance; Q1 FY25 guide implies continued y/y growth with seasonality and mix shaping profitability; watch RSCG margin percent and GovDeals pricing trends .
- Balance sheet strength and capital returns: $155.5M cash/short-term investments and zero debt support organic and inorganic growth; buyback authorization increased by $10M .
- Medium-term growth path: Management sees a line-of-sight to $2B GMV and $100M EBITDA in the next few years via share gains, AI-driven efficiency, buyer expansion, and bolt-ons—credible given multi-segment momentum and network effects .
- Segment watchlist: Monitor CAG pipeline conversion and GovDeals pricing in fleet/heavy equipment; public sector real estate is a call option with rising activity but lower take rates .
- Trading setup: Near-term catalysts include Q1 FY25 print versus guidance, continued buyer/participant growth, and evidence of AI-driven margin leverage; buyback provides incremental support .
Additional relevant press releases in Q4 FY24: GovDeals’ $8.3M sale of Missouri’s Wainwright building (segment proof point) and Bid4Assets wins in PA and MN (expanding distressed real estate auctions) .