Landsea Homes - Q2 2023
August 1, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Welcome to the Landsea Homes Corporation Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Drew Mackintosh. Thank you, sir. You may begin.
Drew Mackintosh (Investor Relations)
Good morning, welcome to Landsea Homes second quarter of 2023 earnings call. Before the call begins, I would like to note that this call will include forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. Landsea Homes cautions that forward-looking statements are subject to numerous assumptions, risks, and uncertainties, which change over time. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the risk factors described by Landsea Homes in its filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Accordingly, forward-looking statements should not be relied upon as representing our views as of any subsequent date, and you should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements in deciding whether to invest in our securities.
We do not undertake any obligation to update forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date they were made, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as may be required under applicable securities laws. Additionally, reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures discussed on this call to the most comparable GAAP measures can be accessed through Landsea Homes' website and in its SEC filings. Hosting the call today are John Hou, Landsea's Chief Executive Officer, Mike Forsum, President and Chief Operating Officer, and Chris Porter, Chief Financial Officer. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to John.
John Ho (CEO)
Good morning, thank you for joining us today as we review our second quarter results and provide an update on our operations. Landsea Homes continue to benefit from a combination of strong industry and company-specific fundamentals, resulting in another quarter of solid profitability and healthy sales activity. We produced net income of $4.9 million for the second quarter of 2023, or $0.12 per diluted share, thanks mainly to our strong, strong top-line results, which were driven by a home closings total that was well in excess of our previously stated guidance. Order activity was solid throughout the quarter as we generated a sales pace of 3.3 per community per month, comparable to where we were last year at this time.
There continues to be a dearth of existing home inventory in our markets, which has brought an increasing number of prospective buyers to the new home market. While this dynamic has benefited all homebuilders, we believe Landsea is uniquely positioned to capitalize on this trend, thanks to our High Performance Homes, which offer the latest in home innovation and technology, setting us apart from other homebuilders, especially the existing home market. We expect existing home inventory to remain constrained as long as rates stay elevated, keeping buyers with lower mortgage rates in their current homes. A big part of our strategy is to rapidly increase our market share in the high-growth markets we've established a presence in. We understand that this is a business of scale, and that returns and profitability are often correlated with the builder size.
We have made great strides towards growing our presence in places like Phoenix and Central Florida in a short amount of time, and we want to continue that momentum in these markets and elsewhere. To that end, we decided to raise $250 million in capital through a private debt deal in July. This capital will provide us with the dry powder we need to make investments in our markets and maintain the high-growth trajectory we've demonstrated since our inception. One of the regions we view as a big opportunity for our company is Texas. Back in March, we announced the relocation of our corporate headquarters to Dallas, signaling our commitment to the state and our intent on becoming a national home builder. Texas has established itself as a business-friendly state with favorable demographics and in-migration patterns.
We are excited about the prospects for our current operations in the Austin area and look forward to expanding our presence in that market and others around the state, like Dallas and Houston. Despite Landsea's strong track record of growth and profitability, we have believed for some time that our stock's valuation did not reflect the true value of our company. One of the factors we felt was causing this was a lack of float, or shares available to trade in the open market. To alleviate this problem, we worked with our largest shareholder, Landsea Green, to facilitate a secondary offering of a portion of the company's shares. In June, we went to market with this offering and was met with great enthusiasm from investors, resulting in upsizing of the transaction.
The net effect of this deal has been tremendous for our shareholders, sending our stock 30% higher in June alone and creating considerably more liquidity for investors to establish positions. We still feel our stock is undervalued, even at current levels, and have been actively repurchasing shares as a result. We bought 443,000 shares in the secondary offering for $3.3 million and purchased an additional 623,000 shares in the open market for about $5 million through the end of June. We completed the remaining piece of our share repurchase program in July for a total of just over 1.1 million shares for $10 million in the open market.
In total, we have purchased roughly 4% of our outstanding shares since March. Last week, we received board approval for an additional $10 million in capacity at our meeting. We will continue to strike a balance between a reasonable level of shares outstanding and opportunistic share repurchases throughout the remainder of the year. As we look to the second half of the year, we believe Landsea Homes is in a great position to capitalize on the positive housing fundamentals that exist in our markets. There is a sense of urgency among home buyers as they realize that there are few options available to them in the existing home market. We feel that our High Performance Homes present a very appealing and affordable option for these buyers. Pricing environment has remained firm given the supply-demand dynamics in place. We're seeing less discounting in the market.
Supply chain issues that have impacted our industry for the last few years seem to be abating, giving us better clarity on our delivery schedules and faster inventory turns. Our balance sheet is in great shape. We have the necessary capital and liquidity to achieve our growth objectives. For all these reasons, I'm extremely optimistic about the future of Landsea Homes. With that, I'll turn the call over to Mike, who will provide more detail on our operations this quarter. Mike?
Mike Forsum (President and COO)
Thanks, John. Market selling conditions remained favorable throughout the second quarter as we sold 565 homes, representing a 5% increase over the prior year quarter, and sequentially up 13% from the first quarter. Orders were fairly consistent in April and May, while June was a bit lower, which we attributed to the faster than expected closeout of some existing communities and our decision earlier in the year to hold off on new community openings until model complexes were finished. Additionally, we saw interest rates start to increase again in June. Several of those new communities are now open and have been selling well. For example, since opening in March of this year, we have sold 81 homes at our Narra Hills master planned community, located in the Southern California city of Fontana.
We are experiencing similar pricing power across our markets, as the lack of existing inventory John mentioned, has definitely put a floor in pricing. We continue to utilize financing incentives such as rate locks and buydowns to make our homes more affordable from a monthly payment standpoint. Buyers appear to have accepted that we will be in a higher rate environment for the foreseeable future, and view the ability to lock in a rate in the 5% range as a real incentive to move forward with their purchase. All of our markets are performing well, with the exception of the core San Francisco Bay Area, which seems to be feeling the effects of the recently announced layoffs in the tech sector.
We took a $4.7 million impairment in the second quarter related to our project in the Bay Area to reflect these lower and slower market conditions. Outside of this, we remain positive about our existing positions in Northern California. We believe there is still solid demand for new homes in the market, given the lack of inventory and the high cost of rental options. Our operations in Southern California, Arizona, and Florida all experienced strong order activity in the second quarter. We saw that momentum carry into July. From an operational standpoint, we have shifted away from the heavy spec start strategy we employed earlier in the year to a more balanced approach.
We have seen a return of the to-be-built buyer to the marketplace now that cycle times have come down from their peak, which has allowed us to build and deliver homes in a time frame that is more acceptable for buyers. We are still comfortable with starting homes without a contract in place, but we are more focused on selling those homes earlier in the construction process to maximize the margin opportunities associated with buyers' customization. We believe the worst of the supply chain issues that have disrupted our industry are behind us, and we feel that we have become a smarter and more efficient builder as a result of the adjustments we have made to overcome these obstacles. Overall, we feel really good about where our operations stand heading into the back half of the year.
We either closed, sold, or started everything we need to hit our delivery goals for 2023 and feel confident in our ability to hit those targets. We have a strong and growing presence in some of the best markets in the country and a compelling product offering that differentiates us from the competition. Our build times have come down considerably from the peak, and we expect to see further improvements from here. The void in the housing market that has resulted from the lack of existing home inventory has created a real opportunity for home builders, and Landsea is well positioned to take advantage of that opportunity. Now I'd like to turn the call over to Chris, who will provide more detail on our financial results this quarter. Chris?
Chris Porter (CFO)
Thanks, Mike. For the second quarter, we generated $292 million in home building revenue, a 17% decrease over second quarter of 2022, taking us to a total of $532 million for the first half of the year. Second quarter revenue was impacted by a 6% year-over-year decline in deliveries and a 12% decrease in average selling price, which were largely driven by the closeout of our operations in New York. Excluding New York, our core markets of California, Arizona, and Florida achieved a 2% increase in average sale price and delivered the same number of homes as the second quarter of last year. On a sequential basis, both Arizona and Florida's ASPs were up 3%, and California was up 9%.
... We reported total revenue of $293 million for the second quarter, compared to $369 million in the second quarter of last year. The second quarter of 2022, we generated $18 million in lot sales and other revenue, primarily from bulk sales contracts that did not occur this year. Our pre-tax income for the quarter was $7.5 million, compared to $23.2 million last year. The difference in home sales revenue from New York, the inventory impairment of $4.7 million, and a 230 basis point decrease in gross margin, primarily related to incentives, were the drivers of this change. In the second quarter, our sales and marketing expense as a percentage of home sales revenue improved 60 basis points from second quarter of last year.
Our G&A expense of $26 million was $1.1 million lower than last year, but remained elevated as a percent of home sales revenue. This quarter, we had some one-time charges related to capital markets transactions, along with additional relocation fees related to our corporate move to Dallas. We anticipate G&A to stay roughly at $22 million-$23 million per quarter going forward and remain committed to our overall operating efficiency improvements. We reported GAAP home sales gross margin of 17.4%, compared to 21.3% in the second quarter of 2022. As we've mentioned, during the quarter, we recorded a $4.7 million impairment on inventory that runs through cost of goods sold and represents a 160 basis point decrease in our gross margin.
Excluding this inventory impairment, our gross margin would have been 19%, which was above our guidance for the quarter. On a fully adjusted basis, which excludes the impact of interest and cost of goods sold, real estate inventory impairments, and purchase price accounting, our gross margin was 23.5% in the quarter, a decrease of 560 basis points from a year-ago, up 160 basis points sequentially from the first quarter. As John mentioned, we are very pleased with our new order volume and the consistency produced in the quarter. New orders were 565, with an average selling price of $474,000, and a total order volume of $324 million. Orders were up 5% from a year-ago and 14% sequentially from the first quarter.
We ended the quarter with an average of 57 selling communities, up 7% from a year earlier. Throughout this year, we have remained disciplined on our land acquisitions as we assess the current market conditions and ended the quarter with just over 11,000 lots owned or controlled. 54% of these lots were under an option agreement as we continue to focus on our asset-light strategy. Our tax expense in the second quarter was $1.6 million, which represents an effective tax rate of 21.8%. For the year, we anticipate our effective tax rate will be in the range of 22%-23%. Turning to our balance sheet. We ended the second quarter with $261 million in liquidity, $76 million in cash and cash equivalents, and $185 million in availability under our revolver.
With interest rates increasing, we are managing our outstanding revolver more efficiently and reducing cash on hand where we can. Our tangible book value per share increased to $15.02 as of June 30th, a 14% increase from June 30th of last year. Additionally, our leverage ratios remained in line with our stated policies, ending the quarter at 40% debt-to-total capital, down 200 basis points from first quarter, and 34% net debt to total capital, up from 31% from first quarter, reflecting our more efficient use of the revolver. Now, I'd like to provide some guidance, for the third quarter and full year. This guidance is based on our best estimate as of today with current market conditions. As inflation and interest rates continue to change, their impact may affect our overall results.
We anticipate third quarter new home deliveries to be in the range of 400-475 units, and delivery average selling prices to be in the range of $535,000-$545,000. We anticipate GAAP home sales gross margin to remain relatively consistent with this quarter at around 19%. For the full year of 2023, we now anticipate new home deliveries to be in the range of 1,900-2,100 homes, up from our previous guidance, and delivery average selling prices to be between $550,000 and $560,000. With that, that concludes our prepared remarks. Now, operator, we'd like to open the call up for questions.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press Star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. Our first question comes from Alex Rygiel with B. Riley Securities. Please go ahead.
Alex Rygiel (Managing Director and Head of Equity Research)
Thank you. Good morning, gentlemen. John, first question is for you. Congratulations on a number of capital markets transactions here. If you could, though, sort of talk about how it's better positioned you for accelerating growth in the future years.
John Ho (CEO)
Hey, Alex. Thank you. Yeah, I think one of the key things that we did this quarter, one of it is the private placement, which has got a five-year term on it. Really allows us to diversify our debt capital stack with some longer-term permanent debt capital. Then obviously diversify our balance sheet. Given sort of the volatility, whether it's in banking or overall with interest rates in the market, gives us more flexibility to continue to operate a business. Also the opportunity to grow if we find acquisitions and land that we can continue to buy in the markets that we're currently in.
The other thing that we did on the capital markets front was a very successful secondary offering that really helped to increase the liquidity in the stock, allowed us to attract more U.S. institutional investors in the name, and really continue to allow us to tell our story. Lastly, we actually just extended, closed on extending our revolving line of credit for another year. That goes out another three years from 2023-2026. I think we've positioned the company really well for any more market volatility that comes at us, and also to capitalize on opportunities to go forward and grow the business and grow it in scale.
Alex Rygiel (Managing Director and Head of Equity Research)
Very helpful. Mike, talked a little bit about a shift away from spec builds towards more to-be-built. Included in that was a comment about maximizing profit opportunities from buyer option selections. Can you talk a little bit about that?
Mike Forsum (President and COO)
Sure, Alex. Generally, when we're able to get our home buying prospects actually go into escrow as homeowners into our design centers, we have a unique ability to move them towards upgrading and customizing a home towards certain materials and levels of specs that they want. In so doing, we have a higher profit margin generally around those items, and we can also take a larger profit. It does two things for us. One, it deepens the relationship with the buyer in the escrow process with us, allows us to take additional deposits into the transaction, and then incredibly adds revenue and then profits, because most of our options are 30%-50%. From that standpoint, it's, it's one of those things that we really like to do.
When you, when you spec build, you sort of pre-select many options, and what happens is that, you do price up for those options, but you have a tendency to also pull back on the options because you're also very concerned about the overall price of the house and trying to move the house. You have to, you know, be thoughtful about that. Whereas, again, when we get homeowners into our design centers, they're sort of unfettered in terms of how much they want to add, what they want to add, as long as, again, that the mortgages can support that additional cost of the house. It's a good thing. It's always been a good thing, so we like to do it if we can.
Alex Rygiel (Managing Director and Head of Equity Research)
Very helpful. Then, Chris, any guidance on what the lot count might look like at year-end and, and maybe going out 12-18 months?
Chris Porter (CFO)
Yeah, Alex, as opposed to a lot count, I think, you know, last year, at the end of the year-
Alex Rygiel (Managing Director and Head of Equity Research)
I'm sorry, I, I meant community count, sorry, not lot count.
Chris Porter (CFO)
Good, because that's where I was going to go.
Alex Rygiel (Managing Director and Head of Equity Research)
Okay.
Chris Porter (CFO)
We ended about 53 active selling communities on average, and we said we'd be up 15%-20%. It looks like we'll be on the closer to the top end of that for this year, and be up probably about 20% on an organic basis year-over-year. We should end about 20% higher on community count, average selling community count than last year.
Alex Rygiel (Managing Director and Head of Equity Research)
Very helpful. Thank you. Nice quarter.
Chris Porter (CFO)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Carl Reichardt with BTIG. Please go ahead.
Carl Reichardt (Housing Industry Analyst and Advisor)
Thanks. Hey, guys. I was going to ask the community count question, so thank you for that. Chris, can you talk about when the purchase accounting will start to bleed off and not impact the margins?
Chris Porter (CFO)
Yeah, yeah. Carl, it'll probably be in 2024. We put about $100 million or so, a little over $100 million on when we bought the Hanover acquisition in first quarter of 2022. We burned through about $50-ish million last year. And we've gone through-- we'll go through probably about that amount this year as well. My guess is, is that it'll start bleeding off completely in 2024.
Carl Reichardt (Housing Industry Analyst and Advisor)
Okay, thank you for that. Then on the, on the line, you're at, I think, 185 out of 675 on the line, the notes went to pay down the line. What do you anticipate happening from a cash flow perspective in the back half of the year? Where do you expect that line to be when we get to the end of the year, in terms of, in terms of what's, how much you've got paid down, how much outstanding?
Chris Porter (CFO)
Yeah. So I think, I think, we will really look at managing within the targeted leverage ratios that we've talked about. So we've talked about, you know, being at the 40%-45% total leverage. We ended the quarter at 40%, debt to cap. I think we'll manage the company within that. We may ebb and flow within that range, but that would be kind of where we've committed to running the company. Then kind of on a net debt to cap would be in that in that mid-30s level.
Carl Reichardt (Housing Industry Analyst and Advisor)
Okay. All right. Thank you for that. Then, the bigger picture question I have is, is really related to, to returns.
... in your, you know, your leverage is reasonably high for the, for a public traded home builder at this moment, that will change. But on a return basis, given the high book value, return on equity is reasonably thin. Can you talk about the strategy for improving returns? Is that likely to be sort of more margin-focused or, or more asset turn-focused? How do you fix the real question is: how do you get ROE higher? Thanks.
Chris Porter (CFO)
Yeah, John,
John Ho (CEO)
Hey, Carl, this is John.
Carl Reichardt (Housing Industry Analyst and Advisor)
Hey, John.
John Ho (CEO)
I'll take that question first, then I'll hand it over to Mike Forsum and Chris Porter. Obviously, we do believe ROE, ROIC is very important. I think it's highly correlated as well to stock price as well. One of the things that we think that we're doing a very good job of to date, is really growing the company pretty quickly. I think you look at our track record since we went public in 2021, we've really done everything we said we were gonna do, expand into high-growth markets like Texas and Florida, continue to grow the business of scale in these markets that we've chosen to be in.
I think the markets that we've expanded into, particularly like a Texas and Florida, we do have the opportunity to turn inventory much faster, but it's also turning inventory much faster with scale as well. Obviously, being a publicly traded company and being currently the smallest publicly traded company, there is a certain fixed cost that comes with running a public company. Growing the business of scale in these markets is important, as well as that higher inventory turn. One of the things that Mike can speak to in more detail is, you know, our thoughts about growing in these markets the second half of the year into next year.
If we can get to the scale that we want to be in these markets, I think we'll see our returns, more comparable, to our peers as well, as we have a more diversified portfolio, and then we're turning these inventories, a lot faster. Mike?
Mike Forsum (President and COO)
Sure. Hi, Carl. Look, remarkably, I would just add that, in terms of our inventory turns, we've been pretty excited about our cycle times coming way down from where they were last year. In fact, one of the highlights is in Arizona. We just had a cycle time of our last release that went to 5.5, you know, 5.5 months, which is literally half of what it was a year ago. From that standpoint, we're really seeing great improvements in getting the house started, built, and closed, commensurate with what we would consider to be, you know, I think, best in class currently in the markets in which we're operating in.
Along with that, and to John's point, we are also still actively looking for targets in the markets in which we're operating in, and to expand in markets in which we're not. So we're having some great conversations currently with several candidates. I think, again, we're one of the builders of choice for those that are the size in which are commensurate with the Hanover or Garrett Walker acquisitions. We know how to do that. We know how to transent, transact on that, and we know how to integrate those companies and get them online quickly to help us get that scale that John was talking about.
John Ho (CEO)
I appreciate the compliment, Carl. Oh, sorry, guys.
Chris Porter (CFO)
No, I was, I was gonna say, and, and one of the things that we've talked about as well is kind of continuing to manage our G&A as well, to help improve those overall profitability margins. It's something that we're continuing to focus on. You know, again, back to the point of scale, you know, we feel like we've got the right scale now to grow from. You know, we, we do need a, a scale to be a public company, and I think that you would see, you know, a nice leveraging of that current G&A once we start growing.
Carl Reichardt (Housing Industry Analyst and Advisor)
Great, guys. I really appreciate the help. Thanks so much.
John Ho (CEO)
Thanks, Carl.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Matthew Bouley with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Matthew Bouley (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the questions. I wanted to ask just about the sales pace. You know, it was, I believe 3.3 per month in the quarter. I, I know you gave some color around orders. I'm curious, I guess, number one, how did the sales pace trend through the quarter and into July? And then maybe a little bit higher level, you know, you know, I don't think we have a great kind of historical set of data giving you guys went public, you know, around a rather volatile time in housing.
Could you kind of speak to with the communities you have today, you know, what, what do you think is the normal seasonality for sales pace in the second half of this year, relative to that 3.3? Thanks, guys.
Mike Forsum (President and COO)
Matt, Mike. Let me try to answer that by saying that we generally like to always run our communities at roughly around a 3.0-3.5 net absorption rate per month. We think that that is the right velocity in, in any community, regardless of price point, generally, in terms of where we are. It keeps the proper momentum to build through a community at a consistent pace. Whether the market's going up or going down, we're always trying to find the right clearing price, the proper incentives, whatever is really necessary to continue at that kind of level of pace. That's where we are. From that standpoint, I believe that, you know, where we are right now and what we're seeing at the community level, is a good, healthy sales environment.
Cancellation rates have come down substantially from where they were a year prior. We're settling in in that 10%-15% cancellation rate against the gross absorptions, which is really a healthy number. Traditionally, this is kind of where we would like to operate in. Getting in that sort of low single-digit cancellation rate probably isn't great. Certainly, if you're above 20, that's not where you wanna be either. We're settling in at a nice pace of gross absorptions against cancellation rate that's getting us a good solid net. In all of our communities, we're seeing good, steady pace of traffic coming through, people that are anxious and willing buyers and are ready to transact. From that standpoint as well, we're very excited about that.
We saw a little bit of a tail-off in June, and that was probably around a couple of factors. One, a little bit of seasonality, which is what we expected. We also had sort of a gapping of some communities that were supposed to be coming online that didn't. And then we had a little bit of a, you know, I think some things around weather, and some other things that people have been dealing with. But for the most part, it was just a bit of a lull that righted itself going into July. So July has been strong growth and net stabilization around the cancellation rates, and we're very pleased with how things are looking this summer as we go forward around that, that part of our business.
Matthew Bouley (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Got it. Okay, perfect. Thank you for that color. And then secondly, maybe just moving down to the gross margin. I think you guided the GAAP margin to be flat sequentially in Q3, and correct me if I'm wrong, but it did pick up nicely there in Q2 relative to the first quarter. I think you called out some tailwinds on price, and then everything you're doing around options and shifting back to to-be built. So I guess, what are the puts and takes? What would prevent the gross margin from continuing to rise given your guidance there? Thank you.
Chris Porter (CFO)
Yeah, Matthew, it's, it's Chris. I'll take that one. I think that, you know, we're still a little cautious with the Federal Reserve movement and where interest rates tend to be. I think that we've all experienced, you know, what happens in a spike in the interest rates and where incentives need to be to continue the sales momentum. I think that that's probably the biggest factor that's out there, is what incentives are needed. We've seen those start to abate this year. You know, assuming where mortgage rates continue to trend, we think that that's a favorable tailwind behind us. We do see some cost improvements that are starting to bleed through cost of goods sold.
We do think that that's a little bit of a tailwind as well. Really, the questionable factor out there is around mortgage rates and where those head and, and maintaining the cancellation rates that Mike has talked about, and, and making sure that we have that right price to mortgage rate balance and, and get to the right payments.
Matthew Bouley (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
Got it. Okay, that's helpful. Then, lastly, just one more for you, Chris. Following the private placement and the capital markets transactions, any thoughts on how to think about capitalized interest, you know, as we get out either later this year and into next year?
Chris Porter (CFO)
Yeah, I think that, you know, effectively, Matt, there's about a third of a 300 basis point difference delta between where our revolver's priced today and where the five-year term loan is. I think that, you know, the communities that are active in selling today, you know, it, it, it takes roughly four or five years as that kind of, you know, kind of bleeds through overall. We've got, you know, what's being constructed plus then, your, your new communities that will be in there, and so we'll see that bleed out over the next three to five years, really.
Matthew Bouley (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)
All right. Well, thank you, Chris. Thanks, guys. Good luck.
Chris Porter (CFO)
Yeah, thanks, Matt.
Mike Forsum (President and COO)
Our next question comes from Jay McCanless with Wedbush. Please go ahead.
Jay McCanless (SVP of Equity Research)
Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. My first one, if you could talk about cycle time for the entire company, that was good news on Arizona, but just trying to triangulate if, if you're gonna get to roughly 70 communities by year-end, and you're selling at a three pace, you know, what, what does that look like for deliveries as we start to think about 2024?
Mike Forsum (President and COO)
Hey, Jay, Mike, I'll take that one. I think, for the most part, you know, we are seeing a large decrease in the elongated cycle times that we had faced here over the last year or so. As you said, the highlight has really been Arizona, which we've been excited to get that into that 5-month range, which is really important in that marketplace because we wanna get those 2 times terms per year out of there. We're seeing actual improvements everywhere, including Florida and Southern California is doing a great job in terms of their cycle times. Actually, they, you know, they weirdly, of all places, probably had the least disruption around their cycle times and with the supply chain, they've done a really great job.
Northern California seems to also be getting their arms around their cycle times and bringing it down substantially. Really, the challenge that's been up there is we call these sort of splice box or these, you know, electrical boxes that have been a challenge, and they really impact attached product, of which what we build primarily up there in the Bay Area area. That seems to also be resolving itself. I would say that we're ranging anywhere between that 5.5-80.5 day of product type across the country, which has been which has been terrific because it was much, much higher than that prior. We're seeing, as I said, what really good improvements.
Jay McCanless (SVP of Equity Research)
Great. Thanks, Mike. I guess as we think about July, it sounds like whatever limiting of orders you guys did during June, the, those restrictions, by and large, are off, so we should think about a pace maybe in line to higher than what you're able to achieve in 2Q. Is that the right way to think about it?
Mike Forsum (President and COO)
I think so. Yep.
Jay McCanless (SVP of Equity Research)
Yeah. Then the other question I had was just around lumber cost. You know, lumber seems to be moving up. We really haven't seen much deflation in some of the other goods. I guess, the gross margin guide that you provided, does that include some increase, you know, some of the in lumber effect, or when should we expect some of these higher lumber prices to be rolled into the gross margin?
Mike Forsum (President and COO)
I'll let Chris probably handle some of that around the gross margin side of it. You, you're right, lumber is going back up again. That's generally, though, again, starts that won't see closings till first quarter of next year. What we hopeful, what we're hopeful, hoping for, Jay, is that we'll continue to see lower lumber costs and frankly, lower other material costs and some labor costs that were embedded in the starts that took place at the beginning of the year to roll through for the balance of the year.
Chris Porter (CFO)
Yeah, I...
Jay McCanless (SVP of Equity Research)
Okay, great.
Chris Porter (CFO)
I think Mike said that really well, Jay. I, I think that, you know, just the time it takes to embed into our cost of goods sold, and by the time we close those homes, I think you'll see the benefit of that for the balance of this year and then start to pick up at the beginning of next year.
Jay McCanless (SVP of Equity Research)
Okay, sounds good. That's all I had. Thank you.
Mike Forsum (President and COO)
Thanks, Jay.
Operator (participant)
Our next question comes from Alex Barron with Housing Research Center. Please go ahead.
Alex Barron (President)
Good morning, gentlemen. Yeah, I was just hoping to get an update from you on your Texas operations and the couple of units left in New York. Thanks.
Chris Porter (CFO)
Hey, Alex, I'll take the New York question, then I'll hand it over to Mike. New York, we just have two penthouse units, condo units left in our 14th and Street, Sixth Avenue building in Manhattan. There's a lot of construction going on there right now with the MTA. We think that once that's done, then there's better access to building, we should be done with that building. Then we will no longer have any continue to have any sales activity in the New York area. Mike can take the Texas question.
Mike Forsum (President and COO)
Sure. We're really excited about what's going on for us in Texas, particularly Austin. Currently, we are well underway at our Anthem community in Kyle, Texas. That's a multi-segmented, multi-planning area, master planned community. We look to be going vertical with construction here in early fall. As well as three other communities that we acquired over the last year, that were all finished lot communities are delivering to us, delivered to us as finished lots. We have those coming online here, and we're going to be getting construction here in the next couple of months on two of those.
We're very excited about the progress that we're making there and getting energy and looking to add to our revenue base through our ops and operations here very soon, as well as some other opportunities that we're looking at throughout Texas in general.
Alex Barron (President)
It sounds like first, deliveries and revenues won't come till next year. Can you guys give us some type of guidance in terms of what average price point to assume and maybe how many closings you would expect next year, roughly speaking?
Chris Porter (CFO)
Yeah. I think that, you know, typically, we're not giving, you know, guidance on property by property or, or state by state. If you think about, we will start delivering homes in Texas in the first part of next year, and then do our typical ramp up there. You'll see a ramp through the year in 2024 on our Anthem community. Yeah, average selling prices should be consistent with, you know, what we're seeing in Arizona and Florida, and more in line with what our typical average selling price is in those communities.
Alex Barron (President)
Thank you very much. Good luck.
Chris Porter (CFO)
Thank you.
Mike Forsum (President and COO)
Thanks, Alex.
Operator (participant)
Ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star 1. There are no further questions at this time, I would like to turn the floor back over to John Ho, Chief Executive Officer, for closing comments.
Chris Porter (CFO)
Thank you, everyone, for your time today. We're really excited about how this year has performed and looking forward to the next quarter when we speak again. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
That concludes today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.