Sign in

You're signed outSign in or to get full access.

LP

Lantern Pharma Inc. (LTRN)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • EPS beat: Q1 2025 net loss per share was -$0.42 versus Wall Street consensus of -$0.49, a $0.07 beat driven by lower R&D spend and disciplined OpEx management [*S&P Global].
  • Cash runway extended; cash and marketable securities were $19.7M with expected operating runway through at least May 15, 2026, supporting near-term clinical catalysts without immediate dilution .
  • Clinical execution advanced: LP-184 Phase 1a enrollment targeted to complete by end of June 2025; additional HARMONIC Trial (LP-300) data, including Asian expansion cohort, now anticipated in Q3 2025 .
  • FDA cleared two Phase 1b/2 protocols for LP-184 (TNBC monotherapy and PARPi combo; NSCLC KEAP1/STK11 + dual ICI combo), expanding potential paths to registrational development .
  • AI commercialization emerging as a new asset-class: RADR modules (BBB permeability, ADC design) scaling toward external access in 2H 2025, positioning for software-like revenues and partnership optionality .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “Pivotal inflection point” as clinical programs (LP-184, LP-300) and RADR reached material milestones; CEO emphasized AI-driven modules and near-term partnering dialogue .
  • Strong early LP-300 signals maintained: lead-in cohort showed 86% clinical benefit rate and 43% ORR; expansion enrolling across US/Asia for Q3 2025 readout .
  • Operating discipline: R&D down to ~$3.3M (from ~$4.3M YoY), G&A steady at ~$1.5M; extended runway through at least May 15, 2026 .

What Went Wrong

  • Timing shift: HARMONIC Trial broader data update moved from Q2 2025 (prior update) to Q3 2025, modestly delaying a potential catalyst .
  • Funding overhang: management reiterated a need for additional funding in the near future despite extended runway; potential dilution risk persists .
  • Sparse Street coverage: single-estimate EPS consensus and zero revenue consensus reflect limited analyst attention, raising volatility around events [*S&P Global].

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$4.5 $5.9 $4.5
Net Loss per Share ($)$0.42 (loss) $0.54 (loss) $0.42 (loss)
R&D Expense ($USD Millions)$3.7 $4.3 $3.3
G&A Expense ($USD Millions)$1.5 $1.6 $1.5
Cash & Marketable Securities ($USD Millions)$28.1 $24.0 $19.7

EPS vs Estimates (Wall Street, S&P Global):

MetricQ1 2025
EPS Actual ($)-0.42
EPS Consensus Mean ($)-0.49*
Beat/(Miss) ($)+0.07*
EPS - # of Estimates1*
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Millions)0.0*
Revenue - # of Estimates1*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

KPIs and Clinical Metrics:

KPICurrentPrior Reference
LP-300 Lead-in Cohort Clinical Benefit Rate (%)86% 86% maintained
LP-300 Lead-in Cohort ORR (%)43% 43% maintained
HARMONIC Expansion Design2:1 randomized (LP-300 + chemo vs chemo) As planned
LP-184 Phase 1a Enrollment Target62–65 by end of June 2025 Cohort 11 in Q4 2024
Shares Outstanding (Basic)10,784,725 10,784,725
Fully Diluted Shares (approx.)~12.1M ~12.1M

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
LP-184 Phase 1a enrollment completionQ2 2025“Finish enrollment during Q2 2025” “Completion (62–65 patients) by end of June 2025” Maintained / clarified
LP-300 HARMONIC additional data updateMid-2025“Q2 2025” “Q3 2025” Lowered (timing pushed)
Cash runway12+ months“At least 12 months from Mar 27, 2025” “Through at least May 15, 2026” Raised/extended
LP-184 TNBC Phase 1b/2 initiation2025“FDA raised no objections; plan US & Nigeria” “IND cleared; plan US, Nigeria, and India” Raised (regulatory status improved; sites expanded)
LP-184 NSCLC (KEAP1/STK11) Phase 1b/22025Not previously clearedIND amendment cleared; dual ICI combo planned Raised (new clearance)
RADR BBB module public availability2H 2025Public launch contemplated via webinars Initial public launch planned 2H 2025 Raised (timing specified)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (Prev Mentions)Q4 2024 (Prev Mentions)Q1 2025 (Current)Trend
AI commercialization (RADR modules)Conceptual; BBB webinar planned Agentic AI vision; ADC module targets/pairs Freemium roll-out plan; BBB module first; external access roadmap Increasing execution clarity
HARMONIC (LP-300) progress86% CBR/43% ORR; Asia expansion starting Asia sites accelerating; interim analysis plan Q3 2025 update including Asian cohort; trial randomized 2:1 Continued momentum; timing shift
LP-184 clinical path9+ cohorts; Fast Track GBM; companion diagnostic (PTGR1) Cohorts 11–12; MTD clarity; combinations (PARPi, ICI, spironolactone) Enrollment completion by June; two Phase 1b/2 protocols cleared (TNBC, NSCLC) Advancing to expansion trials
RegulatoryFast Track (GBM, TNBC); rare pediatric designations Ongoing protocol interactions IND clearance for TNBC and NSCLC subsets Positive
FundingCash ~$28.1M; runway into late 2025 Cash ~$24.0M; 12+ months runway Cash ~$19.7M; runway through mid-May 2026; need additional funding near term Mixed: extended runway but funding need
ADC programPeer-reviewed approach; initial targets 82 targets; 290 target-indication combos RADR ADC module commercialization plan Building commercialization bridge

Management Commentary

  • “This quarter represents a pivotal inflection point in our clinical and technological development... positioning ourselves for productive discussions with potential biopharma partners... our RADR AI platform has reached a crucial development milestone...” — Panna Sharma, CEO & President .
  • “We’ve maintained our disciplined approach to capital deployment, ending the quarter with approximately $19.7 million... providing an expected operating runway through at least middle of May next year.” — David Margrave, CFO .
  • “We have made an important and exciting decision to open up the RADR AI platform on a module-by-module basis to the broader scientific and research community... start with a freemium type approach.” — Panna Sharma, CEO .
  • “The lead-in cohort was the 7 patients in the U.S., and six out of seven of them responded... 86% clinical benefit rate, 43% objective response rate... expansion cohort randomized 2:1.” — Panna Sharma, CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Monetization strategy for RADR modules: management intends to launch under a freemium model to drive adoption, collaboration, and data aggregation; roadmap to be detailed later in Q2/Q3 .
  • Trial design clarifications: Asian patients are part of the randomized expansion cohort (2:1), not a separate cohort; continued US enrollment .
  • LP-184 enrollment: near completion (high 50s), expected to fully enroll next month (June), with preliminary biomarker-linked data thereafter .
  • Regulatory tech adoption: CEO expects FDA to begin integrating AI evaluation parallel to existing methods over next 12–24 months, ultimately improving speed/cost (non-guidance context) .
  • Capital strategy: management open to partnerships, licensing, and technology collaborations to support pipeline while maintaining fiscal discipline .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 EPS: Actual -$0.42 vs consensus -$0.49 (beat by $0.07); 1 covering estimate indicates low coverage and higher event risk [*S&P Global].
  • Revenue: consensus $0.0 with minimal coverage; company did not provide revenue figures in Q1 press release (pre-revenue profile typical of clinical-stage biotech) [*S&P Global] .
  • Implication: Limited Street coverage likely amplifies stock sensitivity to clinical/regulatory updates; estimates should be revisited as trial catalysts and AI commercialization paths solidify [*S&P Global].

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • EPS beat driven by lower R&D and stable G&A; cash runway extended to mid-May 2026, reducing near-term financing urgency though management flagged additional funding needs .
  • Near-term catalysts: LP-184 Phase 1a enrollment completion (June), Q3 2025 HARMONIC update including Asian expansion cohort, and initiation of two FDA-cleared Phase 1b/2 LP-184 studies (TNBC; NSCLC KEAP1/STK11) .
  • Strategic optionality via AI: commercial launch of RADR modules (BBB, ADC) in 2H 2025 can open non-dilutive partnership revenues and validate platform value .
  • Clinical signal durability: LP-300 lead-in cohort metrics (86% CBR; 43% ORR) anchor the never-smoker NSCLC thesis; randomized expansion readout will be pivotal for partnering and next-stage design .
  • Regulatory momentum: dual Fast Track (GBM, TNBC) plus new IND clearances de-risk clinical path for LP-184 across high-need indications with large TAMs ($4B+ TNBC; $2B+ biomarker-defined NSCLC subset) .
  • Risk factors: timeline shifts (HARMONIC Q2→Q3), sparse coverage (1 EPS estimate), and stated need for incremental funding could introduce volatility; alignment of catalysts and capital strategy will be key [*S&P Global].
  • Trading lens: stock likely to react to clinical milestone confirmations (June enrollment; Q3 HARMONIC data) and clarity on AI module commercialization/partnerships; positioning around these events may be attractive given limited expectations embedded in Street estimates [*S&P Global].