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LP

Lantern Pharma Inc. (LTRN)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 delivered clinical and platform milestones while narrowing cash runway: LP-184 completed Phase 1a enrollment (65 pts) with MTD and RP2D established; cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $15.9M as of June 30, 2025 (runway at least into June 2026) .
  • EPS beat: GAAP diluted EPS was -$0.40 vs Wall Street consensus of -$0.485; a beat of $0.085 per share. Consensus revenue was $0.0 as Lantern remains pre-revenue; no product revenue reported in Q2 *.
  • Positive clinical signals: complete responses observed in LP-300 HARMONIC (never-smoker NSCLC) and LP-284 (DLBCL), plus Japanese HARMONIC cohort enrollment completed ahead of schedule; broader data update targeted for September 2025 .
  • AI platform commercialization momentum: public launch of PredictBBB.ai and new AI-powered drug-combination module; management is shifting investor communication to webinars/digital media, foregoing a Q2 call to focus resources .
  • Near-term catalysts: HARMONIC Asian cohort data in September 2025, LP-184 Phase 1b/2 planning in TNBC and bladder, plus Type C FDA meeting clarifying pediatric CNS trial pathway; potential partnering opportunities highlighted .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • LP-184 Phase 1a reached key inflection: enrollment completed (65 pts) and both MTD and RP2D established, enabling advancement to Phase 1b/2 trials in TNBC and recurrent bladder cancer .
  • Clinical activity across programs: a never-smoker NSCLC patient achieved a durable complete response in HARMONIC (LP-300) with continued survival nearly two years; a heavily pretreated DLBCL patient achieved complete metabolic response on LP-284 after two cycles .
  • AI platform progress and commercialization: PredictBBB.ai launched publicly with 94% accuracy/95% sensitivity/89% specificity; new module for predicting synergistic cancer drug combinations (trained on 221 trials) unveiled .
    • “This quarter we observed complete responses… and our team is transforming our AI platform into functional, accessible modules…” — Panna Sharma, CEO .

What Went Wrong

  • Cash draw and funding needs: cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities declined to $15.9M (from $24.0M at 12/31/24 and $19.7M at 3/31/25); management continues to flag need for additional funding .
  • No Q2 earnings call: the company did not host the quarterly call, prioritizing other distribution channels; reduces near-term visibility and real-time interaction with investors .
  • Pre-revenue status persists: statements of operations reflect operating expenses only with net losses; continued dependence on external financing and partnership monetization while advancing pipeline .

Financial Results

P&L and Operating Costs (oldest → newest)

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Net Loss ($USD Millions)$5.9 $4.5 $4.33
Diluted EPS ($USD)-$0.54 -$0.42 -$0.40
Research & Development ($USD Millions)$4.3 $3.3 $3.07
General & Administrative ($USD Millions)$1.6 $1.51 $1.58

Liquidity (Cash, Cash Equivalents & Marketable Securities) (oldest → newest)

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Cash + Equivalents + Marketable Securities ($USD Millions)$24.0 $19.7 $15.9

Q2 2025 vs Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global)

MetricActual Q2 2025Consensus Q2 2025
EPS ($USD)-$0.40 -$0.485*
Revenue ($USD Millions)N/A (no product revenue reported) 0.0*
Target Price ($USD)—20.5*
Coverage (# of EPS / Revenue Estimates)—EPS: 2*, Revenue: 2*

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

KPIs and Clinical Milestones

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
LP-184 Phase 1a EnrollmentCohort 11 ongoing Cohort 12; targeted 62–65 by June 65 patients; MTD/RP2D established
LP-300 HARMONIC Lead-In Stats86% clinical benefit; 43% ORR Trend maintained during expansion Durable complete response case; JP cohort (10 pts) completed
LP-284 Phase 1a ActivityCohort 4; no DLTs Ongoing enrollment First complete metabolic response in DLBCL
AI ModulesBBB algorithm highlighted Plans to open modules (freemium) PredictBBB.ai public launch; combo prediction module
Shares Outstanding (period-end)10,784,725 10,784,725 10,784,725

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Operating RunwayThrough mid-2026“At least 12 months from 5/15/2025 (to mid-May 2026)” “At least into June 2026” Maintained / slightly extended
LP-184 Phase 1a EnrollmentBy end of Jun-2025“Finish enrollment during June 2025” Enrollment completed (65 pts); MTD/RP2D established Achieved
HARMONIC (LP-300) Data TimingQ3 2025“Additional patient data anticipated in Q3 2025” “Additional data and findings anticipated September 2025” Timing specified
Q2 Earnings CallQ2 2025Q1 call/webinar hosted No Q2 call; shift to webinars/digital channels Changed distribution

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024 and Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
AI commercializationAgentic RADR vision; BBB algorithm performance; ADC module pipeline PredictBBB.ai launched; combo module announced Accelerating module rollout
R&D executionLP-184 cohorts progressing; MTD proximity; backfilling for clarity LP-184 reached MTD/RP2D; readying Phase 1b/2 De-risking and advancing
Regional enrollmentAsia prevalence; faster ramp; randomized expansion (2:1) Japan cohort completed ahead of schedule Execution strength in Asia
Regulatory/IPFast Track & Rare Pediatric designations; pediatric efforts EU patent allowance (LP-284); Type C meeting clarifies pediatric CNS pathway Strengthening IP/regulatory clarity
Product performanceHARMONIC lead-in 86% CBR, 43% ORR Durable CR case; continued data in Sept Positive clinical signals
Funding/macroNeed for additional funding flagged Runway reiterated; pre-revenue status persists Funding need remains

Management Commentary

  • “This quarter we observed complete responses in patients across two of our clinical trials… These parallel advances mark a pivotal inflection point… reinforcing our fiscally disciplined, AI-driven approach… with a clear pathway to commercialization and value creation.” — Panna Sharma, CEO .
  • On AI modules and commercialization: management aims to open RADR modules via a freemium approach to drive collaborations and new revenue streams .
  • CFO commentary on financing: ~$19.7M at 3/31/25 with stated need for additional funding; fully diluted ~12.1M shares as of Q1 .
  • Q2 communication shift: no quarterly call; focus on webinars, digital media, and social channels .

Q&A Highlights

  • Monetizing AI modules: freemium rollout of BBB module to catalyze collaborations and data aggregation; roadmap to expand agentic, publicly-facing modules .
  • HARMONIC design/enrollment: Expansion cohort randomized 2:1; Asia included within expansion rather than as standalone cohort; clarification on U.S. and Asia enrollment .
  • LP-184 dosing progression: higher therapeutic dose levels reached (cohort 12 at 0.61 mg/kg with 25% increments), explaining timeline extension; preliminary efficacy signals emerging .
  • Timing expectations: near-term HARMONIC data mid-to-late Q2 then larger report at 30 events; LP-184 data timing adjusted due to dose escalation .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 EPS: Actual -$0.40 vs consensus -$0.485; beat of $0.085 per share. Revenue consensus: $0.0 (pre-revenue). Coverage: 2 EPS estimates; 2 revenue estimates. Target price consensus: $20.5*.
  • Implication: modest EPS beat in a pre-revenue context; estimate models likely to remain focused on OpEx trajectory, runway, and clinical/AI milestones.
    *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Clinical catalysts near-term: HARMONIC Asian cohort data expected in September 2025; watch for consistency in benefit rates/ORR and durability signals — key stock reaction driver .
  • Program advancement: LP-184 achieving MTD/RP2D de-risks next-phase execution in TNBC and bladder; protocols cleared and investigator-led bladder study planned — enabling potential partnering .
  • AI monetization: PredictBBB.ai public launch and drug-combo module point to incremental, potentially less dilutive monetization; monitor module adoption and collaboration announcements .
  • Liquidity discipline vs funding need: runway into June 2026 but cash+marketable securities trending down ($15.9M at Q2); expect financing/partnership updates as trials progress .
  • EPS optics: continued pre-revenue losses with improving OpEx trend; Q2 EPS beat driven by disciplined OpEx and other income, not revenues — estimate adjustments should focus on OpEx cadence and milestone timing .
  • Geographic strategy: faster enrollment and high never-smoker prevalence in Asia supports stronger data sets and potential geographic partnerships or registration pathways .
  • Risk framework: funding, regulatory timelines, and translation of early clinical signals to larger cohorts remain key sensitivities; management’s shift away from regular calls may limit near-term visibility, offset by webinar/digital updates .
Note: Lantern did not host a Q2 2025 earnings call; results and updates were provided via the 8-K/press release and ongoing clinical communications **[1763950_0001641172-25-023489_ex99-1.htm:4]** **[1763950_53597691975a41e898cfb486f3ac609b_5]**.