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    Lucid Diagnostics Inc (LUCD)

    LUCD Q4 2024: Medicare LCD Flip to Unlock $2K Tests at 90% Margin

    Reported on Jun 17, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$1.50Last close (Mar 24, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$1.50Open (Mar 25, 2025)
    Price Change
    $0.00(0.00%)
    • New Revenue Channels: The company’s strategic pivot to secured cash-pay concierge medicine contracts and direct employer contracting is already showing early traction—with over 20 concierge contracts signed—providing more predictable, upfront revenue that could lower their cash burn rate.
    • Medicare Coverage Upside: A positive response from MolDX, potentially flipping the existing non-coverage LCD to coverage, would accelerate revenue recognition (shifting from waiting on cash collections to recognizing revenue at report delivery) and allow submission of a one-year backlog of Medicare claims.
    • Market Expansion Opportunity: An $8 million NIH grant to study an expanded indication (targeting patients without GERD) could significantly enlarge the market—potentially adding up to 20 million more patients—further driving long-term growth.
    1. Medicare Coverage
      Q: Expect positive Medicare LCD approval soon?
      A: Management expects a draft LCD that flips the test from non-coverage to coverage in the first half, with final steps seen as formality, underscoring a key milestone for revenue growth.

    2. Margin Outlook
      Q: How will margins improve with Medicare uptake?
      A: With Medicare coverage, the test’s set price near $2,000 and a direct margin of about 90% should enhance operating leverage without significantly increasing burn rate.

    3. Effective ASP
      Q: Why is the effective ASP so low?
      A: The low ASP reflects the timing of cash collections rather than lower reimbursement, as payments are spread out over earlier and current claims despite a consistent allowable of around $1,600 per test.

    4. Test Volume
      Q: How should future test volume be viewed?
      A: Management remains conservative on test volume, targeting between 2,500–3,000 tests per quarter via traditional channels while expecting revenue improvements first before volume increases materialize.

    5. NIH Grant Opportunity
      Q: How big is the expanded market opportunity?
      A: The $8 million NIH grant supports studies for an expanded indication, potentially adding up to 20 million additional patients, thereby significantly enlarging the addressable market.

    6. Pipeline Outlook
      Q: What is the current sales pipeline status?
      A: The pipeline for concierge and contracting channels is robust, with over 20 contracts signed recently and active discussions that should translate to contracted revenue as the sales efforts mature.

    7. Highmark Coverage
      Q: How significant is the Highmark milestone?
      A: Although Highmark represents a modest regional plan, it sets a critical precedent for future payer engagements, lending credibility to the market expansion strategy.