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Pulmonx Corp (LUNG)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 revenue was $23.859M (+14.8% YoY; +13.2% constant currency), driven by strong international growth; gross margin was 72% and net loss per share was $0.38 .
  • Management lowered FY25 revenue guidance to $90–$92M from $96–$98M and cut OpEx to $128–$130M (from $133–$135M), while maintaining gross margin of ~74% .
  • The company beat Wall Street consensus modestly: revenue by ~$0.39M and EPS by ~$0.02; international strength offset slower U.S. procedure conversion, with Q3 expected roughly flat YoY and H2 mix shifting toward U.S. .
  • Key catalyst: guidance reset due to longer U.S. conversion timelines; evidence of funnel health includes record StratX Lung Analysis Report activity in June–July and early LungTraX traction, suggesting potential upside if conversion accelerates .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • International revenue reached $9.128M (+32.3% YoY; +27.4% constant currency), a record performance anchored in Europe/Asia and distributor channels .
  • Gross profit rose to $17.204M; programs added 12 new U.S. treatment centers and trained 26 new physicians, expanding capacity and access .
  • “StratX Lung Analysis Report referrals rebounded to record levels in June and July,” with improving funnel signals from direct-to-patient and LungTraX initiatives (CEO commentary) .

What Went Wrong

  • U.S. revenue was $14.731M (+6.1% YoY), slower than expected due to capacity constraints at IP centers and lower StratX scans; management cites bronchoscopy and screening focus diverting suite availability .
  • Adjusted EBITDA loss widened to $(8.407)M vs $(7.620)M YoY, reflecting investment levels and mix effects; CFO also noted higher SG&A to support commercial programs .
  • Guidance cut reflects longer-than-expected conversion from new U.S. initiatives; Q3 likely flat YoY with China distributor revenue moderating in H2, tempering international contribution .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD)$20,783,000 $22,538,000 $23,859,000
Gross Profit ($USD)$15,307,000 $16,342,000 $17,204,000
Gross Margin (%)74% 73% 72%
Operating Expenses ($USD)$30,929,000 $30,905,000 $32,008,000
Net Loss ($USD)$(15,326,000) $(14,448,000) $(15,173,000)
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.39) $(0.36) $(0.38)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD)$(7,620,000) $(8,506,000) $(8,407,000)
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Marketable Securities ($USD)—$88,700,000 (as of 3/31/25) $84,200,000 (as of 6/30/25)
Segment RevenueQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
United States ($USD)$13,881,000 $14,221,000 $14,731,000
International ($USD)$6,902,000 $8,317,000 $9,128,000
KPIsQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
New U.S. Treatment Centers (count)——12
New Physicians Trained (count)——26
Direct-to-Patient First-Time Engagements (count)——20,000+
Active U.S. Accounts (count)—285 —
TASS Impact (avg. workups vs 4Q avg)——+19%
Q2 2025 Actual vs ConsensusConsensus*Actual
Revenue ($USD)$23,468,670*$23,859,000
Primary EPS ($USD)$(0.40167)*$(0.38)
# of Estimates (Revenue / EPS)6 / 6*—

Values retrieved from S&P Global for consensus metrics marked with an asterisk.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($USD)FY 2025$96M–$98M $90M–$92M Lowered
Gross Margin (%)FY 2025~74% ~74% Maintained
Total Operating Expenses ($USD)FY 2025$133M–$135M (incl. ~$22M SBC) $128M–$130M (incl. ~$22M SBC) Lowered
Int’l Distributor (China) Mix CommentaryH2 2025Expect moderation vs H1 Expect significantly lower in H2 Moderation
Tariffs/Trade AssumptionsFY 2025No impact anticipated No material near-term impact anticipated Maintained
Cash Burn TrajectoryFY 2025—Track at or below 2024 levels New Commentary

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024, Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
AI/Tech (LungTraX™)Pilot sites launched; contracting and early detection ~15% emphysema rate; dozens in contracting Several hospitals live; early site examples (1 patient from nodule follow-up; 5 patients moved to workup within 30 days) Expanding adoption; multi-stakeholder workflow extends conversion timelines
Supply Chain/ManufacturingMade in U.S.; minimal imported materials Reaffirmed minimal import exposure; gross margin resilience Stable
Tariffs/MacroChina distributor stocking H1; watch FX/tariffs H2 distributor orders to be significantly lower; monitoring trade Moderation in H2; FX/tariffs monitored
Product Performance (Zephyr)Record Q4 revenue; strong OUS OUS strength; U.S. slower conversion; record StratX activity Jun–Jul OUS strong; U.S recovery slower but improving funnel
Regional TrendsH1 driven by OUS (incl. China) H2 mix shifts to U.S; Q3 likely flat YoY; U.S ≈ ≥2/3 of H2 revenue U.S contribution rises in H2
Regulatory/LegalDOJ declined to intervene; CID concluded No new itemsDe-risked
R&D ExecutionCONVERT II progressing; Japan post-approval study; expanded indications Convert II enrollment on track; Japan enrollment continues; Jaeger PFT collaboration Ongoing progress

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “Strong international performance drove double-digit growth… While we are revising full-year guidance to reflect longer-than-expected revenue conversion from our U.S. initiatives, we are seeing early signs of traction.”
  • CEO: “StratX® Lung Analysis Report referrals rebounded to record levels in June and July… We believe lung cancer screening infrastructure will create capacity to find and treat more severe emphysema patients.”
  • CFO: “We are updating our full-year 2025 revenue guidance to $90–$92 million… We are revising operating expenses down to $128–$130 million, including ~$22 million in stock-based compensation.”
  • CEO: “This isn’t a direct competition situation… We remain the premier offering in valves… The challenge is matching the right patient with the right care.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Guidance cadence: Q3 2025 expected roughly flat YoY; H2 revenue mix to shift toward U.S. with ~≥2/3 in H2; international distributor (China) ordering to be significantly lower vs H1 .
  • StratX momentum: Record June–July StratX trends; conversion timelines vary by account; potential upside to guidance if conversion accelerates .
  • TASS impact: In territories with Therapy Awareness Specialists, patient workups rose ~19% vs four-quarter average, improving funnel efficiency .
  • U.S softness drivers: Capacity constraints and IP focus on robotic bronchoscopy/cancer screening diverted bronch suite availability; seen as future tailwinds as infrastructure expands .
  • No competitive displacement: Management reiterated Zephyr’s leadership; focus on building a lung health ecosystem and administrative buy-in for capacity expansion .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 results modestly beat consensus: revenue $23.859M vs $23.469M* and EPS $(0.38) vs $(0.4017)*; 6 estimates for both metrics. Expect models to adjust for lower FY25 guide and H2 mix shift toward U.S. .
  • International strength and U.S conversion lag suggest revisions: trimming FY25 revenue, lowering OpEx, maintained GM ~74%; watch H2 phasing and Q3 flat setup .
    Values retrieved from S&P Global for consensus metrics marked with an asterisk.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Guidance reset is the primary stock narrative: revenue cut to $90–$92M and OpEx reduction to $128–$130M indicate longer U.S conversion timelines but improved operating discipline .
  • OUS strength continues; H2 mix to skew U.S as China distributor ordering moderates—set expectations for Q3 flat and H2 recovery; monitor StratX/LungTraX conversion velocity .
  • Funnel health improving: record StratX activity and TASS-driven workups (+19%) signal demand; upside exists if conversion compresses .
  • Gross margin durability (~74%) supported by U.S manufacturing and minimal import exposure; mix and volumes should help H2 .
  • Non-GAAP: Adjusted EBITDA loss widened YoY; continued investment required to scale ecosystem; track OpEx discipline vs commercialization progress .
  • Discrepancy to note: CFO cited ~$5.6M SBC, while 8-K reconciliation shows $6.214M—investors should clarify classification/rounding in follow-ups .
  • Near-term trading: Expect sensitivity to H2 conversion commentary and China distributor trends; medium-term thesis hinges on LungTraX adoption, Convert II expansion, and Japan commercialization timelines .