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Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 revenue was $52.4M, net loss $10.0M, and adjusted EBITDA ($13.2M); backlog ended at $235.9M and cash balance at $622.0M .
  • Management announced an $800M acquisition of Lanteris Space Systems (formerly Maxar Space Systems), positioning Intuitive Machines as a “next‑generation space prime”; combined trailing-12-month revenue exceeds $850M with positive adjusted EBITDA and backlog of $920M based on Q3 TTM metrics .
  • Outlook: Q4 2025 revenue expected to be in line with Q3 while a combined 2026 outlook will be provided early next year .
  • Near-term catalysts include LTVS award (NASA), CLPS CT-4 award, OSAM‑1 potential shift to Space Force, and NSNS constellation build-out; Street consensus benchmarks were unavailable via S&P Global during this session (see Estimates Context) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Lanteris acquisition accelerates vertical integration and scale: “This acquisition will be immediately accretive to revenue, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow” with combined ~$850M revenue and $920M backlog on Q3 TTM basis .
  • NSNS progress and strategy: management highlighted building a five‑satellite lunar data relay constellation and global ground segment, with internal satellite manufacturing enabling schedule control and cost efficiency .
  • Solid quarter operationally: revenue $52.4M; gross margin $5.7M (improved vs Q2), adjusted EBITDA ($13.2M) improved by $12.2M vs Q2; backlog additions include OTV ($9.8M), AFRL nuclear extension ($8.2M) and IM‑4 rideshare ($7.5M) .
    • Quote (CEO): “We are defining the next generation space prime that will operate and deliver, faster and more affordably, across the space domain.”

What Went Wrong

  • Profitability still negative: Q3 GAAP net loss $10.0M and adjusted EBITDA ($13.2M); management continues to target positive adjusted EBITDA in 2026, not 2025, given program timing and prior EAC impacts .
  • Backlog down sequentially: $235.9M in Q3 vs $256.9M in Q2 and $272.3M in Q1, reflecting burn and timing of awards; excluding remaining $123M of MSNS 2.2 to be recognized via task orders .
  • Government shutdown uncertainty: Q4 revenue guide “in line with Q3” reflects caution on year‑end timing; full combined 2026 guide deferred to early next year .

Financial Results

Core Financials vs Prior Periods and YoY

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$54.662 $62.524 $50.313 $52.4
Net Income (Loss) attributable to Class A ($USD Millions)$(149.343) $(11.543) $(25.332) $(10.0)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(11.239) $(6.610) $(25.368) $(13.188)
Gross Margin ($USD Millions)n/a$6.7 $(11.8) $5.7

Notes:

  • Q3 revenue drivers: OMES, CLPS, NSNS; gross margin improved vs Q2 .
  • Q2 EAC adjustment shifted IM‑3 revenue from 2025 → 2026 due to vertical integration decision on NSNS satellites; did not change total contract revenue, but reduced Q2 revenue by $10.1M and increased costs by $9.7M .

KPIs and Balance Sheet

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Backlog ($USD Millions)$328.345 $272.336 $256.909 $235.9
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)$207.607 $373.253 $344.901 $622.0
Convertible Notes Issued ($USD Millions)——$345.0 (Q2) $345.0 outstanding (Q3)
Gross Margin %n/a11% n/an/a

Segment/Program Detail (data disclosed)

ProgramPeriodMetricValue
OMES (OSAM‑1/OMS)Q2 2025Revenue ($USD Millions)$19.6
Backlog addsQ3 2025OTV (definitized)$9.8
Backlog addsQ3 2025AFRL in‑space nuclear power extension$8.2
Backlog addsQ3 2025IM‑4 commercial rideshare$7.5

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RevenueFY 2025$250–$300M (Q1) Near low end; potential near prior midpoint $275M (Q2) Lowered bias to low end
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2026Positive (Q1) Positive (reaffirmed) (Q2/Q3) Maintained
RevenueQ4 2025n/aIn line with Q3 ($52.4M reference) New specific quarter view
Combined OutlookFY 2026 (post-Lanteris)n/aNew outlook for combined company early next year Deferred timing due to acquisition and gov’t uncertainty

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ1 2025 MentionsQ2 2025 MentionsQ3 2025 MentionsTrend
NSNS & Data ServicesExecuted first milestones; $18M additional funding; plan for 5‑sat constellation Verticalize satellite production; align IM‑3 with satellite readiness; global ground network and DSN commercialization efforts Expand with Lanteris scale; operational task orders expected once first satellite and tri‑band ground are online Strengthening and scaling
LTVS (NASA)PDR completed; positioning for RFP/award “Most transformative” potential award; ~$4.6B program; demo ~$1B Reinforced as pole‑position opportunity later in year Building toward award
OSAM‑1/OMSAdvocacy; program value for NatSec Defense markup language to launch OSAM‑1 by 2028; potential shift to Space Force Reiterated momentum and potential incremental revenue Improving visibility
Reentry & Microgravity$10M TX Space Commission award; team formation Biopharma/semiconductor use cases; cadence building Ongoing; part of infrastructure pillar Steady progress
Mars Data RelayEarly design/proposal; precursor from lunar constellation Proposal to evolve lunar constellation for Mars; replace aging infrastructure Continued pursuit; synergy with Lanteris bus Advancing plans
Vertical IntegrationEarly moves (landed landers) Decision to bring satellites in-house; EAC impact disclosed Lanteris adds scale, robotics, reliability; cost and schedule control Accelerating
Supply Chain/Ground Network—Facility expansion; Spaceport approvals; Ground stations globally Tri-band ground and first lunar comm satellite pivotal for task orders Scaling infra

Management Commentary

  • CEO on strategic shift: “We are defining the next generation space prime… across the space domain.”
  • CFO on Q3 and acquisition: “The transaction… will be funded through $450M cash and $350M stock… immediately accretive to revenue, adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow.”
  • CEO on NSNS moat: “Sole awardee of the Near Space Network… capability we must put in place and operate commercially—an incredibly wide and deep moat.”
  • CEO on LTVS: “Most transformative award… roughly close to $1B for first demonstration; total ~$4.6B.”
  • CFO on prior EAC decision: “EAC adjustment… reduction of $10.1M to revenue and cost increase of $9.7M… revenue moved from 2025 to 2026 on IM‑3; aligns timing with satellite completion.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Lanteris margin and backlog mix: Advent improved margin profile with 300‑series LEO platforms; backlog ~25% defense/25% civil/50% commercial; mix expected to tilt more to defense .
  • Data services model: Higher margin services post-launch, with Intuitive Machines “its own customer” for satellites fueling lunar and Mars relay networks .
  • NSNS task orders: Operational task orders expected once tri‑band ground antennas and first lunar satellite are online; only U.S. lunar comm satellite planned initially .
  • Nuclear power and Jetson: AFRL Stirling engine demo on ISS; continued work on NASA FSP 40kW and agency interest in a 100kW lunar reactor by 2030 .
  • Robotics capability: Center of excellence in MD; Lanteris robotics for LTVS arm; future OSAM and GEO servicing (RGXX/MGO) envisioned .
  • Integration/regulatory: Standard antitrust review, 20+30 day timing; management feels confident on close in Q1 2026 .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus EPS and revenue estimates for Q3 2025 and Q4 2025 were unavailable in this session; we could not benchmark actuals versus Street. Where benchmarks are required, note that SPGI consensus was not returned and therefore not comparable in this report.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • The Lanteris acquisition is a structural catalyst: vertical manufacturing plus proven spacecraft reliability should accelerate NSNS, LTVS, OSAM‑1, and Mars relay opportunities, with immediate accretion to revenue/adj. EBITDA/free cash flow and a combined ~$920M backlog on Q3 TTM metrics .
  • Near-term revenue trajectory muted by timing: Q4 “in line with Q3” reflects year‑end award/government shutdown uncertainty; watch for CLPS CT‑4, LTVS, and OSAM‑1 decisions to re‑accelerate backlog and 2026 visibility .
  • Profitability path hinges on services ramp: NSNS task orders and LTVS operations should mix-shift toward higher‑margin data services; management reiterated 2026 positive adjusted EBITDA target .
  • Strategic moat developing: Sole NSNS award, tri‑band ground, first lunar comm satellite, and DSN commercialization proposals create defensible positioning in deep space data markets .
  • Watch integration milestones: Antitrust clearance, TSA and mirror plan execution, robotics and bus standardization; early combined 2026 outlook slated “early next year” .
  • Funding and liquidity robust: $622M cash at Q3, $345M convert on balance sheet; M&A optionality remains active in software/satellite/data services for NatSec markets .
  • Risk: Award timing and funding (gov’t shutdown); backlog declines reflect burn; profitability remains negative pending services ramp; Street estimates were not available to assess beat/miss .
All financial and qualitative statements are sourced as follows: 
- Q3 2025 press release and 8-K: **[1844452_0001193125-25-263400_d17822dex991.htm:0]** **[1844452_0001193125-25-263400_d17822dex991.htm:1]** **[1844452_0001193125-25-263400_d17822dex991.htm:7]** 
- Q3 2025 acquisition update call transcript: **[0001844452_2231128_3]** **[0001844452_2231128_2]** **[0001844452_2231128_4]** **[0001844452_2231128_5]** **[0001844452_2231128_8]** **[0001844452_2231128_9]** **[0001844452_2231128_10]** **[0001844452_2231128_11]** 
- Q2 2025 press release and earnings call: **[1844452_0001844452-25-000051_lunr-20250630xexx991.htm:8]** **[1844452_0001844452-25-000051_lunr-20250630xexx991.htm:9]** **[1844452_0001844452-25-000051_lunr-20250630xexx991.htm:10]** **[1844452_0001844452-25-000051_lunr-20250630xexx991.htm:7]** **[1844452_2062860_2]** **[1844452_2062860_3]** **[1844452_2062860_4]** **[1844452_2062860_5]** **[1844452_2062860_7]** **[1844452_2062860_9]** **[1844452_2062860_11]** **[1844452_2062860_13]** 
- Q1 2025 press release: **[1844452_0001844452-25-000040_lunr-20250331xexx991.htm:9]** **[1844452_0001844452-25-000040_lunr-20250331xexx991.htm:10]** **[1844452_0001844452-25-000040_lunr-20250331xexx991.htm:11]** **[1844452_0001844452-25-000040_lunr-20250331xexx991.htm:8]** **[1844452_0001844452-25-000040_lunr-20250331xexx991.htm:0]** 
- Q4 2024 press release: **[1844452_0001844452-25-000016_lunr-20241231xexx991earnin.htm:8]** **[1844452_0001844452-25-000016_lunr-20241231xexx991earnin.htm:10]** **[1844452_0001844452-25-000016_lunr-20241231xexx991earnin.htm:7]** **[1844452_0001844452-25-000016_lunr-20241231xexx991earnin.htm:10]**