Lavoro - Q4 2024

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Greetings and welcome to Lavoro's Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2024 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance during the conference, please press star zero on your telephone keypad.

As a reminder, this conference is being recorded, and a replay will be made available on the company's investor relations website at ir.lavoroagro.com. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Tigran Karapetian, Head of Investor Relations. Thank you, Mr. Karapetian. You may begin.

Tigran Karapetian (Head of Investor Relations)

Thank you for joining us today on Lavoro's Fiscal 2024 Fourth Quarter Earnings Conference Call for results ended June 30, 2024. On today's call, our Chief Executive Officer, Ruy Cunha, and Chief Financial Officer, Julian Garrido. The company has provided a supplemental earnings presentation on its investor relations website at ir.lavoroagro.com that may be helpful in your analysis of the quarterly performance.

Before we begin, please remember that during the course of this call, management may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, including statements regarding our future results in operations and financial position, industry and business trends, business strategy, and market growth, among others. These statements are based on management's current expectation and beliefs and involve risks and uncertainties that could differ materially from actual events or those described in these forward-looking statements.

Please refer to the company's registration Form 20-F filed with the SEC yesterday. Another report is filed from time to time with the SEC for a detailed discussion of the risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements made today. Please note, on today's call, management will refer to certain non-IFRS measures, including Adjusted EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA margin, adjusted net profit or loss, among others.

While the company believes that these non-IFRS measures will provide useful information for investors, the presentation of this information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information presented in accordance to IFRS. Please refer to today's release for reconciliation of non-IFRS measures to the most comparable measure prepared in accordance with IFRS. I'll now turn it over to Ruy Cunha, CEO.

Ruy Cunha (CEO)

Thank you, Tigran. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us today as a review of Lavoro's results for the fiscal year 2024. I'll begin by touching upon the overall business landscape and the broader economic context of the business. After that, Julian will delve into our financial highlights and I'll return for some concluding remarks. Overall, our fourth quarter traditionally our lowest seasonally. It proceeded largely in line with our expectations from our last market updates.

On the revenue side, our Brazil ag retail segment saw inputs revenue decline 16% to $124.8 million, driven in large part by our conservative approach to credit, which led us to postpone shipments to clients that had outstanding overdue receivables with us. Nevertheless, we had a strong quarter for barter operations, which led to grains revenues to increase by 40% to $67.7 million.

Crop care, once again, had a strong quarter with revenue increasing 87% to $19.9 million, with a strong contribution from Union Agro, our specialty fertilizer business. While talking about the second semester margin improvement, our gross margins as a percentage of input sales improved by 70 basis points year over year to 22.3% in the quarter, marking the first positive year-over-year impact since the start of the downturn. We've seen progression in gross margins for our retail business, in particular as we went on, especially in the third and fourth quarters.

Given the seasonality of our business, it makes most sense to look at the year-over-year trends of our gross profit as a percentage of inputs revenue, which excludes the impact of grains.To that point, our gross margins improved from declining by over 1,000 basis points year over year in the first quarter to declining 500 basis points in the second quarter, to declining 200 basis points for the third quarter, and finally, an increase of 600 basis points in the fourth quarter.

This is consistent with what we have been communicating throughout the year, namely that our higher cost inventory cycles out and our inventory cost position improves in a stable environment for input prices, agrochemicals in particular. This leads to better distribution margins. It's worth highlighting again these dynamics given the impact that gross margin compression had on our results in fiscal year 2024.

As illustrated in the Adjusted EBITDA bridge slide in today's presentation, approximately 7% of the decline attributed to gross margin compression, largely driven by dynamics we've outlined and which we expect will gradually resolve.

Now, talking a little bit about the markets, we see now a turning point in the markets environment in Brazil. We currently see a mix of contrasting dynamics for the ag input markets. On the positive sides, we see farmer profitability for crop year 2024-2025 projected to show a notable improvement over last year. Recent increases in local grain prices in Brazil, combined with the relative affordability of inputs, have created beneficial exchange ratio for farmers, creating additional incentives for them to increase planted acres and invest in technology to maximize yields.

We expect planted acreage for soy and corn to grow in the low single digits, while yields are projected to improve by mid-single digits following last year's drought-affected crop. Moreover, input prices have largely stabilized on a sequential basis in recent months, which, as previously noted, is favorable for both distribution margins.

Contrasting with those positive end market developments, in recent months, we observed a deterioration in small and mid-sized farmers' liquidity profile. In our last call, we've discussed how the impact of drought, especially in Brazil's center-west region, left many farmers cash constrained after lower than expected harvests. To give some additional context, credit disbursed to farmers from government programs, banks, and other private lenders was down 30% year over year in the most recent September quarter.

This amounts to a reduction of approximately R$5 billion of credit available in the system. We believe that this reduction reflects in part the lingering effects of the last year's El Niño. As mentioned, the extreme droughts in the region, such as Mato Grosso, led to soybean yields to fall significantly below their 20-year trend line, resulting in lower than expected cash flow at harvest for many farmers in the affected regions.

This dynamic has made credit more difficult for farmers to access, as banks understandably look at the most recent repayment history to make decisions. In addition, many farmers also held back on commercializing their safrinha corn, choosing to wait for better market conditions to sell their grains. With all that said, I want to emphasize that in the vast majority of cases of farmers' repayment delays, the issue is one of liquidity rather than solvency.

An estimated 80% of Brazilian farmers own their land, a valuable and appreciating asset, and have generating operating margins that have averaged between 25% and 30% over the past decade. Consequently, we believe that these farmer liquidity issues will resolve themselves with the cash generated from the upcoming crop seasons. Simply put, farmer demand for inputs to expand profitable planted acres now far exceeds the credit available in the system to support this growth.

And this persistent gap in Brazil has only widened in the recent months. Looking at our outlook for fiscal year 2025, we expect that the ag retail input markets will contract by approximately 10% for that period, with modest volume growth more than offset by the base effect of last year's price declines. With this challenging market environment, we expect to grow slightly above the market rates. This year, our main priority is to improve margins and operating efficiency to be well-positioned when the end market rebounds.

To this end, we plan to optimize our retail network by consolidating those stores that are close in proximity and capture fixed cost savings while maintaining high service levels.With all that said, our projections for fiscal year 2025 is for consolidated revenues to the range of R$8.6 billion-R$9.2 billion and for inputs revenue to range between R$7.7 billion and R$8.3 billion. In terms of Adjusted EBITDA, we anticipated growth relative to fiscal year 2024, driven by margin improvement.

On a US dollar basis, consolidated revenue is projected to range between $1.5 billion and $1.6 billion, with inputs revenue of $1.35 billion-$1.45 billion, and Adjusted EBITDA as well is anticipated to grow relatively to fiscal year 2024. Our guidance reflects the impact of recent farmer liquidity constraints and the resulting reduction in overall market visibility. With that, I'll now pass over to Julian for a deeper look at the financial results.

Julian Garrido (CFO)

Thanks, Ruy. Good morning, afternoon, or evening, wherever you are. Let's talk a little bit about the full year results, and let me start with that. Our consolidated revenue for the fiscal year 2024 grew by 6%, reaching R$1.89 billion. This was mainly driven by a 61% increase in grains revenue, particularly in our barter operations, which came in at R$209.9 million. Despite headwinds from input price deflation, inputs revenue increased 1% as our market share gains helped balance those challenges.

The full year 2024 gross profit was down 19% to BRL 268.4 million, and gross margin compressed by 430 basis points to 14.2%. This was largely due to the input price deflation and a less favorable product mix. The adjusted EBITDA came in at BRL 53.4 million positive for the year, a 64% decline year over year. As Ruy mentioned, this was primarily due to gross margin compression.Due to an extra R$10 million in ECL, this allocation for expected credit losses and a R$5.5 million increase in provision for expiring inventories.

Net loss was R$154.6 million compared to a net loss of R$43.7 million in the previous year. Adjusted net loss was R$144.9 million compared to an adjusted net profit of R$30.9 million the year before. Alongside our lower gross profit, we saw headwinds from higher finance costs and a smaller benefit from income tax, nets. Cash flows from operations total $33.1 million positive, corresponding to R$165.8 million positive reais, up from R$20.9 million in reais, corresponding to R$108.1 million the previous year.

Now, talking about our fiscal fourth quarter results, start with our consolidated results for the fourth quarter.The total revenue increased by 2% year over year to R$271.1 million, primarily driven by a 41% rise in grains revenue to R$68.3 million, while inputs revenue declined by 6% to R$202.8 million, affected by lower input sales in Brazil ag retail and the conversion of results from Brazilian Reais to US dollars. Consolidated gross margin contracted by 100 basis points to 16.7%, with the gross profit down by 4% to R$45.2 million.

This margin compression reflects a higher mix of grain revenue and the unfavorable product mix impacting crop care, while inputs gross margin improved slightly by 70 basis points to 22.3%. Net loss was R$77.3 million, an increase of R$57.8 million year over year, driven by the higher income tax of R$35 million and an increase of finance costs of R$22 million.

Adjusted net loss was R$76.2 million compared to an adjusted net loss of R$15.2 million in prior year, with similar factors impacting the results. Brazil ag retail revenue decreased by 2% to R$192.5 million, with a decline of 16% in inputs revenue due to our strategic decision to delay shipments to certain clients with overdue payments, as previously mentioned. Gross profits, however, grew by 13% to R$29.8 million, supported by a 210 basis points margin expansion, reaching 15.5%.

For LatAm ag retail, revenue increased by 5% to R$65.2 million, mainly due to favorable currency effects from the Colombian pesos. Gross profit rose by 10% to R$10.4 million, and gross margin expanded by 70 basis points to 15.9%. In crop care, revenue surged by 87% to R$19.9 million, led by strong results from Union Agro and Integra.

However, gross profit declined by 29% to R$5.8 million, with margins compressed 28.9%, largely due to product mix effects as Integra's contribution increased. Adjusted EBITDA was R$2.1 million negative, down from 2.4 in the prior year period, reflecting lower gross profit and a decline in other operating income. Last but not least, our consolidated net debt to the adjusted EBITDA ratio, including payables of acquisition of subsidiary, landed at 4.2.

If we excluded those payables, we landed at 3.4. Our Brazil distribution net debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio, which is the covenant of our CRA, landed at 1.7x, below the 2.5x limit. With all that said, I'll pass it back to Ruy for some concluding remarks.

Ruy Cunha (CEO)

Thank you, Julian. I think with that, we summarize both the results from last year and also a little bit of our perspective for the next year. If I were to provide a summary of the feeling of the market nowadays, we expect farmers to be optimistic in the midterm, and we're going to have short-term challenges that will have to be dealt with so we can have better visibility on the actual potential for this upcoming year.

It's encouraging to see that some of the factors that have impacted negatively the market in the last year, such as the sharp variation of input prices and also the decline in farming profitability, they are now improving. Brazil is a country where agribusiness stands as one of its main strengths.Cycles will come and go, but this does not change the fact that the region will play an increasingly prominent role in food and energy production.

Believing in this and in the gradual improvement of market fundamentals, Lavoro together with our strategic partners and our over 3,000 employees is focused on overcoming short-term challenges. In this context, I'd like to thank and recognize the work of our team, which has shown incredible commitment to our clients and the company in these very dynamic environments. With that, thank you, and I'll pass over for Q&A.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press *1 on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press *2 if you would like to remove your questions from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the * keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions. The first question comes from the line of Kristen Owen with Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Kristen Owen (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking the question. We are sitting here on November 1st, so your fiscal first quarter is already in the books for 2025. Just wondering if you can help us think about the cadence of your guidance for the fiscal year, how we should be thinking about that first half versus second half, and the order trends there.

Ruy Cunha (CEO)

Yeah. Thanks. Hi, Kristen. Tigran, maybe you want to start just giving some highlights, and then I can complement.

Tigran Karapetian (Head of Investor Relations)

Hi, Kristen. Yeah, I would say, as we sit here today, I don't think the seasonality, we don't expect it to be materially different from last year. There might be some puts and takes, but I think it's going to be broadly similar in terms of the quarterly and first half versus second half breakdown.

Ruy Cunha (CEO)

Yeah, on that, Kristen, the market's performing. Let's say the pace of the market's performing very much in line with what we saw last year, the pace of negotiations, the behavior of the farmers. So we do not anticipate a lot of changing dynamics in this year.

Kristen Owen (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Okay. Maybe if we can double-click on sort of where channel inventories are today, given the impact that that had on pricing in the last year. So maybe just where channel inventories are. You noted the pricing is starting to stabilize on a year-over-year basis. And any sort of commentary that you can provide in terms of either opportunities or risks associated with the bankruptcy of one of your large competitors in the region?

Ruy Cunha (CEO)

Yeah, so on the inventory and input prices, so two important components here, so as I mentioned, the trend line on the input prices is of stabilization, particularly what we've seen in the last months, and this is also being reflected in the farm gate prices, which is an important indication of the margin recovery, so stabilization scenario is apparently now becoming more clear.

The second thing, even though there's no official data on retail inventory, the sentiment here is that the inventory is mostly normalized. Right now, we do have regions in which we continue to see more competitive price, but I would say that in the beginning of this year, we have a better inventory position overall in the retail in Brazil. Now, regarding your second question, I think that the markets nowadays are very dynamic, as I mentioned. There's some nervousness in the system.

But farmers are investing in their area expansion. They continue to buy inputs. They're coming to our stores to get the basic inputs that they need. So I think what we need to understand is that even though there's some noise in the short term, the demand remains strong, and this might be an opportunity for us moving forward.

Kristen Owen (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

That's very helpful. One last one for me before I turn it over. You mentioned on the OpEx cost-saving side, maybe a little bit of restructuring around the physical footprint. Just help us understand in the waterfall for EBITDA next year, how you think about those cost savings contributing to that waterfall?

Ruy Cunha (CEO)

Yeah. I think most of what we expect to recover in terms of EBITDA will actually come from margins because the impact on margins from last year was very high. Now, with that being said, we grew by acquisitions combined with organic store openings, and we do see opportunities to eliminate some overlaps and some low-performing stores in specific regions.

I won't anticipate a major restructuring, but we do see opportunities for further consolidation that will have both a positive impact on our SG&A, but also on our profitability.So we'll provide more details in the next upcoming months. But what I can anticipate is that most of the recovery comes from margin, but we are also counting on footprint optimization as a second lever.

Kristen Owen (Managing Director and Senior Analyst)

Thank you. I'll pass it on.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Ben Theurer with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Ben Theurer (Managing Director and Head of Latin America Equity Research)

Yeah, good morning, and thanks for taking my question. Just a quick follow-up as it relates to the outlook and what you're seeing in the market, farmer profitability, somewhat stretched, obviously, and kind of stressed because of the drought conditions. Have you seen any improvement lately, and how do you think that has changed some of the behavior of farmers?

Right? As we think about it, there's still an expectation of prices to come down as you reflect in your guidance. So does that change any way of how farmers go to you, buy the products, process them through? Any comment you have as to the behavioral part? That would be much appreciated.

Ruy Cunha (CEO)

Sure. Hi, Ben. So a few comments. Like last year, farmers are delayed in taking their buying decisions, and they were delayed right now in selling, for instance, the grains from Safrinha. We also saw, and this particularly, I would say, over the last month or so, a growing concern of farmers to secure their inputs' availability. Given the overall scenario and also the lower margin of some inputs, the imports to Brazil have reduced for some specific products, and farmers are now worried about not getting the products.

So I would say in the last month or so, we saw a growing concern on that, and that is accelerating the demand and the visits to the stores. But overall, I would say the market is moving slowly in line with last year and much slower than the previous years.Now, when it comes to profitability, Ben, I think it's a combination of two things. Right? So even though the grain prices are not obviously at their peak, and I think corn has a better position, soy is not that much, but in that sense, the calculation that farmers do is that how many bags of corn, so to say, I'll have to use to buy my basic package of inputs.

So, for instance, in our estimations, the quantity of bags of corn for Safrinha, in the last year, they had to use something around 53 bags to buy a basic package of seeds, fertilizers, and crop protection. This number has now come down to 47 bags, and this is, again, a combination of the basic grain prices, but also on the input prices.The relationship is getting more positive, and I think farmers will be using this to take their decisions.

Ben Theurer (Managing Director and Head of Latin America Equity Research)

Okay. Got it. Very clear. And then just wanted to maybe get your thoughts as to the sentiment amongst some of your suppliers and how your relationship is with the suppliers. Obviously, a large competitor of yours had to file bankruptcy. Has that triggered some sort of change in behavior amongst the suppliers of yours and how they think about credit lines towards you, or is that not the case? Is that unaffected?

Ruy Cunha (CEO)

I think we always need to look at the big picture without having a particular look into some specific player. What we see is that, obviously, after the impact that farmers had on their profitability in the end of last year, there were already concerns when it comes to credit concession. Right? And that was even applied to ourselves. Right? So we were more, let's say, conservative in providing credit. And that also holds true for banks and suppliers.

Right? So what I can say is that the conservative approach was already in place when the season started. I think it continues to be there, and it will basically improve as farmers will improve profitability, will start buying again, money continues to flow through the system, and then lenders will feel more, let's say, confident to provide credit again.I think it's a matter of time, but it has started, I would say, early on in the season.

Ben Theurer (Managing Director and Head of Latin America Equity Research)

Okay. Perfect. Great. Thank you very much for the call. Talk to you soon.

Ruy Cunha (CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Next question comes from the line of Austin Moeller with Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.

Austin Moeller (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Hello. Good morning. Just the first question I have here. So the data that we've collected on NOAA rainfall data in Brazil, Argentina, and Colombia has continued to show elevated drought activity even within the past month. Can you discuss the timing of the coming planting seasons and when you think this may be normalized based on what you've seen historically with El Niño and La Niña?

Ruy Cunha (CEO)

Yeah. So the soy planting evolution right now, so I can talk about Brazil, which is a number that I have easily in my mind. So the soy planting in Brazil is about 40% of the total area. This number last year was around 45%. So I would say it's slightly delayed compared to last year. And if you see an average of the previous years, we had, I would say, we should be more towards 47%. So it's 40%, it's delayed, but with recent rains, it's progressing faster now.

Austin Moeller (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

That's good to hear. And how are you thinking about your M&A strategy with retailers and the cadence of that in this environment?

Ruy Cunha (CEO)

Yeah. I think the environment continues to be similar to what we saw in the last year when it comes to M&A and organic growth opportunities. We believe that nowadays, even though there are interesting M&A targets, what we will focus more is on the organic side in which we see more opportunities to continue growing and to gain market share. So that will be the main focus of our team this year.

Austin Moeller (Director and Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Excellent. Thanks for the call.

Ruy Cunha (CEO)

All right.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. A reminder to all the participants that you may press star and one to ask a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of the question and answer session. I would now like to turn the floor over to Ruy Cunha for closing comments.

Ruy Cunha (CEO)

Thank you, Jess. Thank you all for the participation, and looking forward to our next quarter review. See you soon. Take care. Bye-bye.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. This concludes our today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.