LXP Industrial Trust - Earnings Call - Q1 2025

Executive Summary

• Q1 2025 revenue rose to $88.9M (+3.0% YoY) and diluted EPS was $0.06, aided by a $24.6M gain on sale; Adjusted Company FFO/share held at $0.16.
• Same-store NOI increased 5.2% YoY, with strong leasing outcomes (1.1M sf extensions; +58.9% cash rent in Phoenix) and stabilized portfolio 93.3% leased (99.5% excluding first-generation vacancy).
• Guidance: Net income per diluted share raised to $0.12–$0.16 for FY2025; Adjusted Company FFO/share reaffirmed at $0.61–$0.65; same-store NOI growth maintained at 3%–4%.
• Balance sheet: net debt/Adjusted EBITDA at 5.9x; $50M term loan repayment; weighted-average interest rate 3.96%, maturity 5.3 years.
• Catalysts: Big-box lease-up and redevelopment (Richmond) with mid-teens expected yield, plus subsequent lease of 1.1M sf in Greenville/Spartanburg at ~$5.50/sf with ~8% cash yield.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Same-store NOI growth of 5.2% with same-store portfolio 99.2% leased; Adjusted Company FFO/share steady at $0.16.
• Leasing wins: Phoenix 540k sf renewal (+59% cash rent, 3.25% escalators) and Mars Atlanta extension to 2030 (4% escalators).
• Management confidence and strategic focus: “We remain focused on increasing occupancy… executing on our 12-market investment strategy… we believe our portfolio’s asset quality… positions us well”.
• Capital recycling and balance sheet actions: $35.0M Q1 disposition at 6.9% GAAP cap rate; $39.6M subsequent sale; $50M term loan repayment.

What Went Wrong

• Slower leasing cadence and longer tenant decision cycles; management expects lower tenant retention in 2025 vs 2024.
• Tariff uncertainty creating near-term demand caution and a temporary “pencils down” stance on dispositions.
• Big-box vacancies remain a key dependency for hitting the high end of FFO guidance; management frames 2025 outcomes around whether 3 large boxes commence in H2.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning. My name is Aaron, and I will be your conference operator for today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the LXP Industrial Trust First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call and Webcast. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise, and after the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you'd like to ask a question during that time, simply press star, followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If at any point you would like to withdraw your question, simply press star, followed by the number one again. With that, I'm pleased to turn our call over to Heather Gentry, Executive Vice President of Investor Relations. Heather, you may begin.

Heather Gentry (EVP of Investor Relations)

Thank you, Operator. Welcome to LXP Industrial Trust First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call and Webcast. The earnings release was distributed this morning, and both the release and quarterly supplemental are available on our website in the Investor section and will be furnished to the SEC on a Form 8-K. Certain statements made during this conference call regarding future events and expected results may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. LXP believes that these statements are based on reasonable assumptions. However, certain factors and risks, including those included in today's earnings press release and those described in reports that LXP files with the SEC from time to time, could cause LXP's actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements. Except as required by law, LXP does not undertake a duty to update any forward-looking statements.

In the earnings press release and quarterly supplemental disclosure package, LXP has reconciled all non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable GAAP measure. Any references in these documents to adjusted company FFO refer to adjusted company funds from operations available to all equity holders on a fully diluted basis. Operating performance measures of an individual investment are not intended to be viewed as presenting a numerical measure of LXP's historical or future financial performance, financial position, or cash flows. On today's call, Will Eglin, Chairman and CEO, and Nathan Brunner, CFO, will provide a recent business update and commentary on first quarter results. Brendan Mullinix, CIO, and James Dudley, Executive Vice President and Director of Asset Management, will be available for the Q&A portion of this call. I will now turn the call over to Will.

T. Wilson Eglin (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Thanks, Heather. Good morning, everyone. Our 2025 is off to a good start as we produce solid same-store NOI growth backed by strong leasing outcomes in the first quarter. We remain focused on increasing occupancy, enhancing returns in our portfolio, and executing on our 12-market investment strategy in the Sunbelt and Lower Midwest. In the first quarter, industrial fundamentals held relatively steady despite tariff uncertainty. While it is too early to know the full impact of the tariff announcements, our markets have continued to experience healthier industrial fundamentals when compared to select coastal markets, and we believe strong long-term demand trends remain in place. Overall, U.S. net absorption was 23 million sq ft in the first quarter, 19 million sq ft of which was in our 12 target markets.

On the supply side, new starts remain low, and the construction pipeline in our 12 target markets is approximately 87 million sq ft, down almost 75% from the 2022 peak of approximately 330 million sq ft. In terms of product mix, new Class A facilities continued to be favored by many users, evidenced by higher net occupancy gains for new product compared to older facilities, which saw an increase in move-outs during the quarter. We believe our portfolio, which is comprised of 91% Class A industrial facilities with an average age of nine and a half years, stands to outperform in a market environment where quality matters. There has been a slower cadence in leasing transactions this year, primarily as a result of our limited 2025 lease roll, which represents less than 3.5% of our ABR, and secondarily, due to longer decision-making times by many tenants.

We remain cautious in the near term as the current market environment, particularly as it relates to trade policy, has created further uncertainty for tenants making space use decisions. That said, leasing outcomes have been favorable so far this year, and our current mark-to-market on leases expiring through 2030 is estimated to be approximately 18% based on brokers' estimates, which will contribute to our FFO growth. As we discussed in last quarter's call, we expect there could be lower tenant retention this year compared to 2024. In-place rents on the remaining 2025 lease expirations are approximately 30%-35% below market. We believe any space we may get back in 2025 will be attractive to other users. With respect to other vacancy, we have activity at all three of our big box facilities. Leasing these facilities is an important component to FFO growth and continues to be our top priority.

Our investment strategy is concentrated on 12 target markets situated along the Sunbelt and select Lower Midwest states. These markets, where approximately 85% of our gross assets are located, have favorable demographics, with employment and population growth exceeding the national average, business-friendly government policies, and logistics infrastructure. These markets are also benefiting from significant investment in the onshoring of advanced manufacturing. Some of the current projects in our target markets include Taiwan Semiconductor in Phoenix, Hyundai's Metaplant in Savannah, Apple's server manufacturing plant in Houston, Eli Lilly's investment in Indianapolis, and Anduril's drone manufacturing facility in Columbus. Our focused geographic strategy provides us with both investment and operational benefits, including deeper relationships with brokers, developers, and tenants, as well as enhanced market knowledge resulting in better investment and asset management decision-making.

With that in mind, year to date, we've opportunistically sold two industrial assets for approximately $75 million at an average cash capitalization rate of 4.1%. We were able to maximize the value of both assets. One was sold to a user buyer, and the second was sold after securing a long-term lease extension that raised the rent considerably. As a result, we have a strong cash position as we manage through an uncertain market backdrop. Going forward, and as market conditions permit, we continue to look for good uses of capital in our target markets as we selectively recycle capital from our assets in non-target markets. With that, Nathan will now discuss our financials, leasing, and balance sheet in more detail.

Nathan Brunner (EVP, CFO, and Treasurer)

Thanks, Will. We reported adjusted company FFO in the first quarter of $0.16 per diluted common share for approximately $46 million, which was consistent with our expectations. Our same-store NOI growth was 5.2% during the quarter, with our same-store portfolio 99.2% leased at quarter end. We are maintaining our 2025 same-store NOI growth range of 3%-4% and maintaining our 2025 adjusted company FFO range of $0.61-$0.65 per diluted common share. The low end of this guidance assumes we do not lease any of the big boxes in 2025, and the high end represents all three big box leases commencing in the second half of the year. Our expectations for 2025 G&A are unchanged at $39 million-$41 million. In the quarter, we leased approximately 1.1 million sq ft, which consisted of two lease extensions with an average annual escalator of 3.6%.

We achieved great outcomes on both extensions. This included a five-year renewal at our 540,000 sq ft facility in Phoenix, with a 59% cash rental increase over the prior rent and 3.25% annual rental bumps. We also extended our lease with Mars at our 605,000 sq ft facility in Atlanta for an additional two years to 2030, locking in two more years of 4% escalators. We previously signed a three-year extension with Mars last May at an approximately 63% increase over the prior rent, excluding TI reimbursements. We commenced the redevelopment of our 250,000 sq ft facility in Richmond during the quarter, which we expect to complete in early 2026. The facility is part of an integrated four-building campus, and the redevelopment includes repositioning the property into a standalone facility.

Market rent is roughly 70% over the previous rent, and the building is the only one of its size currently available in the market. On the balance sheet front, in the first quarter, we repaid the $50 million unswapped portion of the $300 million term loan. Net debt to adjusted EBITDA was 5.9 times at quarter end. We continue to focus on reducing leverage over time as we grow EBITDA through raising occupancy, marking rents to market, and increasing rents with annual escalators. We had $71 million of cash on balance sheet at quarter end and $110 million pro forma for the proceeds from the Chillicothe, Ohio, property sale in April. In light of the current market uncertainty, we thought it would be helpful to highlight the quality of our tenant base. Approximately 47% of our ABR is from tenants with investment-grade rated parent companies.

This high credit quality is one of the benefits of owning larger boxes and a young portfolio, as the tenants are typically high-quality, well-capitalized large corporations. With that, I'll turn the call back over to Will.

T. Wilson Eglin (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Thanks, Nathan. In closing, we're pleased with our first quarter results. While the direction of tenant demand is uncertain in the near term, we believe our asset quality, tenant credit strength, balance sheet, and portfolio footprint that aligns with onshoring initiatives positions us well. Our focus remains on creating value for our shareholders by increasing occupancy, marking rents to market, raising rents through annual escalators, and concentrating on our 12-market investment strategy. With that, I'll turn the call back over to the operator.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. At this point, if you would like to ask a question for today, remember it is star followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. We'll take our first question for today from the line of Anthony Paolone with JP Morgan. Your line is live.

Anthony Paolone (Co-head of U.S. Real Estate Stock Research and Senior Analyst)

Great. Thanks. Good morning. I guess first question is, I know you don't have a lot of expirations in 2025, but as you start to look out the next few years, that ramps. Can you identify any known move-outs as we start to look out the next few years? You talked a lot about the lease-up that we're all looking at on the three big boxes as being a driver to return to growth. Are there any headwinds we should start to think about that could be offsets as you look out to the heavier expirations right now?

James Dudley (EVP and Director of Asset Management)

Morning, Tony. It's James. Looking to 2026 and 2027, it's too early to tell. We like the tenant base we have there, and we think that we're going to be successful in renewing a lot of those tenants. Much of the 2026 expirations are back-end weighted, so we're going to have to kind of wait and see on that. We've touched on the 2025 expirations that there's some uncertainty around the tenants that we have left. We're also excited about the fact that we have high-quality property with the opportunity to mark-to-market. Regardless of those outcomes, we feel like we're going to be able to drive rent, whether it's with the new tenancy or through renewal.

Anthony Paolone (Co-head of U.S. Real Estate Stock Research and Senior Analyst)

Okay. With regards to the three large boxes, what do yields and rents look like there at this point? Has there been any diminution in the market, or have those held steady? What's happening?

James Dudley (EVP and Director of Asset Management)

Tony, maybe I'll take the first part on the rent piece, and then Brendan can talk about the yields. We haven't really seen anything come that's created a lot of movement off the market rents. Maybe there's been a little bit of a slight markdown, but for the most part, what we've seen is it's been more in the free rent and TI. On the big box leasing, we've seen TI kind of tick up from mid-single digits to low double digits in some cases, and we're back to seeing almost a month per year of free rent being offered as a concession, but not as much pressure on the face rate.

Brendan Mullinix (EVP and CIO)

Yeah. With respect to yield, we're not changing our prior guidance from the stabilization at around a six.

Anthony Paolone (Co-head of U.S. Real Estate Stock Research and Senior Analyst)

Okay. Just last one, if I can. Anything else on the disposition side over the balance of the year that you're thinking about?

T. Wilson Eglin (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Not at the moment, Anthony. We made two really good sales. While we are in this sort of 90-day pause around tariff policy, we have sort of gone pencils down on disposition activity. We do have a longer-term strategic objective of continuing to concentrate on the 12 markets. We made some good progress there last year. We normally would have put some of that cash we freed up from the sales back to work, but at the moment, we like cash a lot, and we will just wait and see how things unfold in the next 60 days or so.

Anthony Paolone (Co-head of U.S. Real Estate Stock Research and Senior Analyst)

Okay. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thanks for your questions. Our next question comes from the line of Todd Thomas with KeyBank Capital Markets. Your line is live.

Hi. Good morning. This is AJ on for Todd. Appreciate you guys taking my question. First, just wanted to ask about the redevelopment you announced this morning. Is this a change in the strategy, or was this always the plan and previously included in guidance?

James Dudley (EVP and Director of Asset Management)

What we had is we had a contraction option from a tenant that had a four-building campus, and the rest of the campus goes out through 2030. It could have been that they continued in and stayed through 2030, or they had the option to contract. The buildings that we acquired were always meant to be single if they needed to be. It is a good opportunity for us to redevelop this property, which basically means separating it from the others and marketing it, and hopefully getting a really good tick on the mark-to-market.

Okay. That's helpful. What impact does the redevelopment have on guidance? Perhaps impacts around it being taken out of the same-store pool, so same-store NOI, anything regarding cap interest, or anything else that will impact AFFO?

Nathan Brunner (EVP, CFO, and Treasurer)

AJ, it's Nathan here. We had always anticipated that this property would be taken out of the same-store pool. When we put out guidance of 3%-4% same-store NOI growth for the year, we had this property excluded because we knew that this redevelopment was part of our business plan. As James described, the scale of this particular project clearly puts it into the bucket of a project that should be in the redevelopment pool. Specifically on Q1, the inclusion or exclusion of this particular property really had no impact on same-store NOI growth because this redevelopment project did not start until the end of the quarter.

T. Wilson Eglin (Chairman, CEO, and President)

It's a fantastic time to have a building this size available in that market. The rent that we've had there is very inexpensive related to market, so this will be just a great outcome for us when we get the asset repositioned.

Okay. No, that's helpful. That kind of leads to the next question on kind of what interest that market and perhaps that building you're kind of expecting to see. Also, what is the stabilized expected yield to be following the redevelopment?

I guess the good news is that it's the only building of its size in that market. Richmond's had a low vacancy rate, so we think that when we have the building ready to go, we're going to get a lot of good activity. We mentioned a strong mark-to-market.

Nathan Brunner (EVP, CFO, and Treasurer)

Just adding on that, you sort of asked about return profile. The way we've thought about it is the incremental rent that we may achieve on getting this property back and taking the rent up to market is something like $700,000 per annum. The capital investment that we're expecting here and disclosed in the materials today is around $5 million. If you think about the yield on capital investment there, it's something like a mid-teens yield.

Perfect. I appreciate it. Thanks, guys.

T. Wilson Eglin (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thanks for your questions. Once again, if you would like to ask a question today, remember it's star followed by the number one on your telephone. Our next question is from the line of John Peterson with Jefferies. Your line is live.

Jonathan Peterson (Research Analyst)

Great. Thank you. Good morning, guys. Just looking at your lease expiration, maybe through the end of 2026, I'm just curious if we look at the markets, are there any of those markets where you're particularly, I guess, excited in terms of upside on leasing spreads? I think your three largest expirations next year are in Dallas, Charlotte, and Cleveland. Anything to kind of point out and call out there if we think specifically about the markets you're in?

T. Wilson Eglin (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Yeah. I mean, we still like the Sunbelt markets. We think that that's where our best opportunity is for mark-to-market. We feel like we've got some really good new product that's going to have the first-generation role in Phoenix, where we're going to significantly mark those to market. We have some really strong assets in Dallas as well. Sunbelt is where we're looking for the really strong mark-to-market.

Jonathan Peterson (Research Analyst)

Okay. Are you guys seeing any—I know you mentioned it's early, but with tariffs and everything going on, I mean, are you starting to see any signs of inventory building in the near term, maybe higher utilization? I think Progolis has kind of alluded to some of that on their call. Maybe any sort of demand related to supply chain reconfiguration, I guess specifically thinking about auto manufacturing. Is there any of that to really call out?

T. Wilson Eglin (Chairman, CEO, and President)

What we've seen, I guess, related to tariffs is we've seen a couple of different avenues by tenants. We've seen some that have just kind of continued on with their business plans through the tariffs. We've seen that through consolidation in some of the markets that they had planned ahead of time.

We've also seen the acceleration of demand in some circumstances around bringing in additional product and trying to find room for that. Solar panels are one of the items I would call out there. Then we've seen some kind of take a step back and pause on their plans and reevaluate what they were planning to do and trying to figure out, like I think everyone else is, what this ultimately looks like so they can plan around it from a supply chain perspective.

Jonathan Peterson (Research Analyst)

Okay. Last question for me. I think a couple of weeks ago, Amazon, there were headlines about them wanting to accelerate investment in warehouses in the US. I mean, how do you think about some of the larger e-commerce players? Or maybe what are you seeing in terms of demand there?

Could that potentially be good news for your 3 million sq ft recent developments you're trying to lease up?

T. Wilson Eglin (Chairman, CEO, and President)

They're definitely still in the market. We'll see if it plays out for us and any of our big boxes. We've seen their activity pick up. They're definitely kicking the tires. They're not the only ones. There are some major retailers that are in the market right now looking to do some of the same things.

Jonathan Peterson (Research Analyst)

Okay. Great. That's helpful. Thank you.

T. Wilson Eglin (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Thanks, John.

Operator (participant)

Thanks for your call. Our next question is from the line of Jim Cameron with Evercore. Your line is live.

Jim Kammert (Analyst)

Thank you. Good morning. I know it's a way out there, and maybe you can't speak to it, but you've got the two big lease expirations potentially with Nissan in early 2027. Kind of thematically, with the line of questioning on the call, they've been kind of a struggling operator. Could you just talk a little bit about what sort of notice they need to provide you, or are you talking about those renewals and kind of how they're doing in those facilities? Just kind of get a sense of what your expectation is for those two leases. Thank you.

T. Wilson Eglin (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Maybe before James specifically addresses how the renewal discussions might play out, just with regard to Nissan, we have the two facilities leased to Nissan in Jackson and Nashville. The U.S. market is critical to Nissan. It's about 40% of their total sales. Although we've seen the global efficiency program that's been announced, all of the recent public commentary has really focused on reconfirming their commitment to the U.S. plants. Very, very recently, they've come out and said that they're actually intending to max production in these U.S. plants. Maybe I'll hand it off to James just to address the specifics around the renewal.

James Dudley (EVP and Director of Asset Management)

Our two big warehouses are directly tied to the manufacturing plants. The one in Nashville is tied to the plant via a private road. They also invested a significant amount of capital to bring suppliers in-house so that they can get things just in time to the manufacturing plant. Similarly, in Canton, which is outside of Jackson, we've been talking to them about potentially having some additional investment, probably of their own dollars, but just investment of doing something similar to what they did in Nashville. Investing millions of dollars into bringing suppliers in. Both facilities have low rent. Nashville has been a really tight market. If something were to happen, which I don't anticipate, we do have a really strong facility there in Nashville that would be functionally available to someone else. They have preferential renewal options as well.

I think we have a really high probability of keeping them with all those different factors.

Jim Kammert (Analyst)

Very good. Have they put incremental of their own investment inside your building as well? Obviously, I guess I just want to understand kind of these aren't just four walls in a box. They've put some monies in.

James Dudley (EVP and Director of Asset Management)

They have. What they did in Nashville is, there is about 1 million sq ft that is just the warehouse piece. They co-invested with suppliers, and they put a couple of different manufacturing operations in the balance of the space so that they would have the suppliers on site and could more quickly provide those products to the manufacturing plant.

Jim Kammert (Analyst)

Got it. Okay. Thanks for the color. Appreciate it.

T. Wilson Eglin (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Thanks, Jim.

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, last call. If anyone would like to ask a question for today, remember it's star followed by the number one on your touch-tone keypad. We'll pause for just a couple of seconds to see if we have any further questions. Okay. With that, let's go ahead and end our Q&A session for today. Mr. Eglin, I'd like to turn it back over to you for any closing comments.

T. Wilson Eglin (Chairman, CEO, and President)

We appreciate everyone joining our call this morning, and we look forward to updating you on our progress over the balance of the year. Thanks again for joining us today.

Operator (participant)

Thank you.