LSB Industries - Earnings Call - Q2 2021

Transcript

Speaker 0

Greetings, and welcome to LSB Industries Second Quarter twenty twenty one Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. A question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host, Christy Carver, Senior Vice President and Treasurer.

Speaker 1

Good morning, everyone. Joining me today on the call are Mark Berman, our Chief Executive Officer and Cheryl Maguire, our Chief Financial Officer. Please note that today's call will include forward looking statements And because these statements are based on the company's current intent, expectations and projections, they are not guarantees of future performance, and a variety of factors could cause the actual results to differ materially. As this call will include references to non GAAP results, please see the press release in the Investors section of our website, lsbindustries.com, for further information regarding forward looking statements and reconciliations of non GAAP results to GAAP results. In addition, we will discuss the recently announced exchange transaction with Eldridge and we direct you to the disclosures included on the last page of the slide deck accompanying this call for information regarding the exchange transaction, the contemplated stockholder meeting and related proxy statement and participation in such solicitation.

At this time, I'd like to go ahead and turn the call over to Mark.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Kristi, and good morning, everyone. As always, we appreciate your interest in LSB Industries and are happy that you can join our call this morning. We certainly have a lot to talk about today. Between our record Q2 results, the strong market environment for our products on both sides of our business, which gives us reason to be very optimistic about the second half of the year, and our recently announced preferred stock exchange transaction, these are exciting times at LSB. Well, unfortunately, are not yet at the point where we can look at the COVID-nineteen pandemic in the rear view mirror, continued widespread vaccination in The US has enabled many people to resume a close to normal life.

This has fueled economic activity across the nation to a degree that has exceeded even the most optimistic predictions about the pandemic recovery, and in some cases has caused stress on the supply chain and shortages and price inflation for many products and services. However, suffice it to say, our key industrial end markets have been beneficiaries of the economic rebound as evidenced by the greater than 100% year over year growth in industrial product sales that you see in the earnings press release we issued last night. On the agricultural side of our business, the market factors that came together in late twenty twenty, early twenty twenty one, to ignite a surge in demand for the products we produce and sell remain intact as we sit here today, past the midpoint of the year, these favorable market fundamentals are providing us not only with a favorable outlook for the second half of this year, but also strong optimism for 2022. Beginning on slide three, we summarize the key drivers of our agricultural end markets. Commodity prices remain well above year ago levels.

Most relevant to our business, the price of corn, while still down from recent highs, is up more than 80% from 2020 lows and continues to sit at eight year high levels. The underpinnings of the strong pricing come from a multiple of factors, including the surge in exports led by increased demand from China and a rebound in ethanol production as driving and related fuel consumption have increased as the benefits of widespread COVID vaccination prompted many people to resume a more normal lifestyle, including traveling. In addition to the impact from increased demand, the price of corn also reflects global supply concerns caused from drought conditions in Brazil resulting in significant yield losses, as well as the current worsening drought in the Western United States that appears likely to negatively affect corn production for the upcoming harvest, potentially reducing stock use ratios. Prices of other agricultural commodities have also seen steep increases including beans, wheat, and cotton, all creating a competitive environment for a finite number of acres we have available for planting in The US. Approximately 91,000,000 acres of corn were planted in The US during the 2020 fertilizer year, which is a slight increase over the 2019 fertilizer year.

The USDA's most recent forecast for the 2021 fertilizer year indicates nearly 93,000,000 acres were planted, which has translated into very healthy demand for fertilizers. Along with the strong corn market fundamentals that have driven robust demand for fertilizers as farmers seek to maximize yields, global shortages caused by production curtailments due to the February deep freeze in the Central US, as well as unplanned downtime at several producers' facilities, coupled with reduced imports, have driven nitrogen prices to levels not seen in more than seven years. Turning to slide four, with respect to our industrial and mining business, our end markets have seen meaningful recovery since last spring. As we've discussed on past calls, nitric acid is a major input into a variety of home building products. Based on preliminary estimates as of the June, US new housing starts have risen above pre pandemic levels to a fifteen year high.

Building permit applications, however, have declined recently, which appears to reflect the nationwide supply chain issues I referred to earlier. However, we believe that new home starts will remain strong through at least the end of this year. The auto industry is also a large consumer of nitric acid. Following the halt in production that occurred as a result of the pandemic shutdowns in 2020, US light vehicle sales rebounded strongly through April 2021 to levels that exceeded pre pandemic levels. Over the past several months, due to price inflation as well as a shortage of new car inventory that has occurred due to a shortage of automotive microchips, vehicle sales have receded, although they remain above a year ago levels.

We are watching the situation closely, but at this time are not seeing a drop in the nitric acid demand as a result of the near term US automotive industry headwinds that we believe are likely to cease later this year. As we've discussed on earlier calls, we are also benefiting from the ramp up in nitric acid volume associated with with our new nitric acid customer agreement, which began last quarter. We've also benefited from strong trends in our mining end markets where we sell a variety of products, including ammonium nitrate solution and low density ammonium nitrate. This is evidenced by our 30% year over year growth in mining related sales in the second quarter, which reached the highest level for LSB in several years. Our increasing mining sales are being driven by a variety of factors, including the North American copper market, where prices for this metal currently stand at ten year highs even after a recent pullback, driven in part by growing production of electric vehicles.

Additionally, with residential construction booming throughout many regions in The US, production of aggregates has been at peak levels. Importantly, with respect to the future of our mining business, over the past five years, we have reduced our exposure to coal mining from 33 of our total mining sales volume to what we anticipate will be less than 1% in 2021, a mix shift that is serving us well. We view the current demand trends we're seeing across our key end markets as pointing towards continued increases in sales and prices of our industrial and mining products for the 2021 and into 2022. Over the last year and a half, our commercial team has worked hard to put us in a sold out position and we now seek ways to maximize our margins by optimizing our product balance and customer mix. Now I'll turn the call over to Cheryl who will discuss our Q2 financial results and our outlook for the balance of 2021.

Cheryl?

Speaker 3

Thanks, Mark, and good morning. Turning to Page five, you'll see a summary of our results for the quarter. Our strong top and bottom line performance largely reflect the increases in pricing for our products in both our agricultural and industrial and mining businesses. Our adjusted EBITDA of $46,000,000 is a company record and adjusted EBITDA for the first six months of twenty twenty one has almost exceeded full year adjusted EBITDA for 2020 and there is still much room for improvement. Page six bridges our adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter twenty twenty one of $46,000,000 to adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter twenty twenty of twenty nine point two million illustrates just how great an impact selling price strength has had on our results.

Partially offsetting the benefit of higher product selling prices was the impact of increased raw material costs including natural gas, which are shown net in the $25,600,000 price impact you see on Page six and represented an $8,700,000 headwind in the quarter. Additionally, we experienced slightly lower volumes as compared to the second quarter last year as a result of lower inventory heading into the quarter, primarily from curtailed production during winter storm Uri and the resulting drawdown of inventory to meet sales contracts during the first quarter combined with some wet weather patterns across the Midwest and Southern Plains in May. The good news is we have seen an extension of the season into July as a result of the wet weather in the spring and that is contributing to continued firm pricing thus far in Q3. Before I pass the call back to Mark, I'll review a few important considerations as to how to think about the 2021. Pricing for our agricultural products remains strong and has not reset the way it typically does in the third quarter, which will be good news for our results for the period.

Given our forward order book for UAN, we are principally sold out for the third quarter at prices above $300 a ton. That compares to our average Q3 twenty twenty UAN selling price of $130 per ton. Additionally, we have sold agricultural ammonia during the third quarter at prices north of $500 a ton, which compares favorably to our average Q3 twenty twenty agricultural ammonia selling price of approximately $180 a ton. Partially offsetting some of the improved pricing is the impact from higher natural gas cost, which we expect will average over $3.5 per MMBtu for the quarter or more than a $1.5 higher per MMBtu versus the third quarter last year. As a reminder, we have a thirty day turnaround scheduled at our Cherokee facility during this third quarter and direct turnaround expenses related to contractors and materials are expected to be approximately 7,000,000 to 7,500,000.0 Lost production and sales volumes during the turnaround is expected to impact EBITDA by approximately 10,000,000 to $12,000,000 during the quarter.

Putting it all together, despite the rising natural gas cost and the $10,000,000 to $12,000,000 EBITDA impact from the turnaround at our Cherokee facility, we expect significant year over year improvement in our third quarter results. We currently expect adjusted EBITDA for the period to be between 30 to 35,000,000 or over three times that of the 2020. This is traditionally our weakest quarter given the historical reset of fertilizer prices. Looking farther out, market fundamentals on all sides of our business are lining up well and we remain very optimistic in our ability to generate significantly improved financial performance for the 2021 and for 2022. With respect to the balance sheet, we are very focused on the credit markets, which remain issuer friendly.

And as you may have seen, we have been placed on credit watch for a ratings upgrade by both S and P and Moody's pending the outcome of the recently announced exchange transaction that Mark will discuss in more detail. Additionally, we ended the quarter with approximately 68,000,000 of liquidity and as of today liquidity is closer to 85,000,000. I'd also note that last month we received formal notice that the entire principal balance and interest of the PPP loan that we received in April 2020 under the CARES Act was fully forgiven in the amount of 10,000,000 plus interest. I'll close out by saying that with a clear path to improving the capital structure, including lowering our cost of capital combined with the tailwinds we have experienced in our business, we are very excited about the 2021 and our prospects thereafter. And now I'll turn it back over to Mark.

Speaker 2

Thank you, Cheryl. As announced in the press release we issued last week, we signed an agreement with Eldridge, the holder of our outstanding Series E1 and F1 preferred stock, to exchange their preferred shares for shares of LSB common stock. We summarize the key aspects of the proposed transaction on slide seven. A brief history lesson for those of you that are new to LSB. We issued these preferred shares in late twenty fifteen to fund the completion of the expansion of our El Dorado facility.

The shares carry a high dividend rate of 14.5%, which we've been paying in kind since they were issued, thus compounding the balance, which now stands at approximately $300,000,000 It was important to complete the El Dorado facility expansion as it allowed us to begin the production of ammonia at El Dorado, which in turn enabled us to lower our cost of ammonia while also increasing our ammonia production capacity, giving us greater volume of ammonia to both sell and upgrade to other products, such as nitric acid and ammonium nitrate. This investment has been a great benefit to our company and allowed us to achieve the kind of results we've posted in the second quarter. Since 2015, Eldridge has been a supportive financial partner to LSB. Once this transaction is complete, Eldridge will become our majority stockholder and will be invested in the company side by side with all our other common stockholders, including many of you. In agreeing to this transaction, we believe Eldridge is demonstrating their confidence in our business model and our outlook, as their interest will now be directly aligned with our common stockholders.

This exchange will greatly simplify our capital structure, and in doing so, we expect it to unlock a number of opportunities that will enable us to more effectively achieve profitable growth, consistent free cash flow, and increase value for our stockholders. Slide eight summarizes the rationale and favorable implications of the transaction. But to review a few of the most compelling benefits, We expect the elimination of this preferred stock liability could enable us to receive a more favorable credit rating on our debt, which currently carries an interest rate of nine and five eighths, which we believe could allow us to refinance at significantly lower interest rate and materially reduce our annual cash interest expense. We plan to reinvest this cash savings back into the growth of our business. Next, we anticipate the exchange will provide us with significantly increased financial flexibility and an opportune time in the business cycle, given multi year high nitrogen chemical prices and strong agricultural and industrial demand.

As illustrated on slides nine and ten, by taking the balance of this preferred stock out of our leverage calculation, we effectively reduce our leverage ratio to 5.6 times on a pro form a basis as of 06/30/2021. Given the favorable business environment, our strong plant operations and our outlook for material year over year improvement in adjusted EBITDA, we expect to further reduce our leverage ratio following the exchange transaction with target leverage of less than four times. These actions will provide us with greater flexibility to pursue important strategic initiatives, including potential acquisitions, organic growth opportunities, and our expansion into bloom green ammonia in the clean energy markets. While both Eldridge and LSB have agreed to this transformative exchange transaction, it does require approval from our stockholders who are not affiliated with Eldridge to complete the exchange. As part of that process, we expect to file a preliminary proxy with the SEC within the next week and then mail out a definitive proxy statement shortly thereafter.

We anticipate holding a special meeting of our stockholders to vote on the exchange in early September. We believe that our stockholders will recognize the value that this transaction brings to our company We look forward to discussing that with them further. Turning to slide 11. The tremendous focus globally on reducing greenhouse gases, including significant government and public support in many countries, has pushed hydrogen ammonia to the forefront, given their many benefits to reducing CO2 emissions. Given that, our belief is that the production of low carbon and no carbon ammonia and derivative products represents a compelling growth opportunity for us, given their potential uses for reducing global carbon emissions.

Our existing knowledge in ammonia manufacturing, handling, storage, and logistics position us extremely well to become a significant player in this arena and to help create a more sustainable, environmentally friendly world in a way that we believe can create long term value both financially and socially. Our current focus is on choosing a technology partner that will perform a feasibility study for each of our sites to determine the infrastructure needed to produce green or blue ammonia and its derivative products that will help support LSB's medium and long term commercial sustainability objectives. We would anticipate the feasibility studies to be completed over the next six months and to be presenting a plan to our board of directors to approve during the second quarter of next year. Lastly, in addition to opportunities to reduce our carbon emissions through the production of blue and green ammonia, we are focused on reducing our nitrous oxide emissions as its impact on warming the atmosphere is almost 300 times that of carbon dioxide. We are currently reviewing options to achieve that.

Slide 12 summarizes our strategic plan from this point forward, beginning with the completion of our exchange transaction with Eldridge. It includes the critical new developments that I just discussed. Collectively, we believe that these measures will enhance our ability to generate profitable growth and greater long term value for our stockholders. Before turning the call over to the operator to begin the Q and A session, I'd note we will be participating in the Credit Suisse thirty fourth Annual Basic Materials Conference on Monday, September 13, which will be conducted using a virtual format. We hope to speak with many of you during that event.

That concludes our prepared remarks, and we will now be happy to take questions. Thanks.

Speaker 0

At this time, we will be conducting a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate that your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you would like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star key.

One moment, please, while we poll for questions. Our first question is from Travis Edwards from Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 4

Hey. Good morning, and thanks for the time and and detail on the quarter, And congratulations on the news release so far in the preferred exchange. I hope things go well there for you over the next coming weeks and months. I guess on that note, as you've called out, if you're able to complete that transaction, it should increase flexibility as you talked about to refinance your notes, pursue some growth initiatives. Just curious if you could elaborate a little bit more on maybe the order of operations if and when the preferred transaction is completed or exchange is completed, you know, as far as capital allocation priorities go.

Is it first we finish the notes, then pursue these green and blue money projects, and then possibly m and a? Just curious how you're thinking about those things, in order to priority.

Speaker 2

Good morning, Travis. How are you? So yeah, look, we intend to refinance shortly thereafter, assuming that we get a positive and favorable vote, from the shareholders on the exchange transaction. Once we complete that, I think we'll continue to invest in our existing business and spend capital where we think we have the appropriate returns and appropriate hurdle rate that we put in place. Clearly, blue and green ammonia is an area that we want to make a push in and so it'll require some capital there as well.

M and A, I think I've been pretty public over the last two or three quarters about wanting to grow the company through M and A, and this, you know, cleaning up our balance sheet really gives us the runway to do that. And so, you know, we've looked at a number of transactions, we'll continue to look at transactions, and where we think that those transactions will be strategic and obviously accretive to shareholder value, I think we'd like to pursue those. Having said that, if these markets continue as we think that they will for the balance of this year and even into next year, and we generate a fair amount of free cash flow, I think we'll have to look at capital allocation always considers return of capital to shareholders as well, whether it's a stock buyback or a dividend. Although I don't want to make any promises that that's where we're going.

Speaker 4

Certainly. That all makes sense, and I appreciate that detail. On your slides, I noticed you'd called out sort of a, you know, targeting sub four times leverage. Hope this isn't too nitpicky, but curious as you think about these growth priorities, you know, assuming you have the supportive fundamentals to get you below that four times or so, but we think you will. Is that four times target leverage sort of a target that you hope to maintain or preserve pro form a for any of these growth initiatives, or is that, you know, something you want to establish first?

Once you get there, then you'd say, hey. We'd be willing to, you know, take leverage up. If that means we can, you know, find an attractive MMA opportunity, or if there's a growth project that requires some debt for that, you'd be comfortable going to five plus tax, whatever the number is, but just getting outside of that range. Does that make sense?

Speaker 2

Yeah. No. I think it's a great question. So first, we have to hit our target. I mean, when I think about commodity businesses and more commodity business, pricing can change pretty dramatically in the marketplace in a short period of time.

So generally speaking, I think lower leverage is better in commodity businesses. So below four times, target could be three and a half times run on a steady state. If

Speaker 4

we

Speaker 2

found an M and A opportunity, would we lever up more to make that acquisition? I think when we really think about that, there is a possibility that we would lever up more to make the acquisition. What I think we'd want to see is a runway that within twelve to eighteen months post acquisition, that we could repay down debt or generate the cash and have net debt that brings us back below four. So I think we'd have to feel comfortable that there's a runway that would get us back there and it would be a high probability runway.

Speaker 4

Got it. So it sounds like that four times ultimately is sort of the benchmark that you're hoping to be below even if you're temporarily in and out of that range. So super helpful. One last clarifying question for me. Cheryl gave some detail on sort of the 3Q guidance and wanted to just clarify, does that 30,000,000 to $35,000,000 include an add back of 10,000,000 to $12,000,000 Or is that before any sort of add back for the lost sales and volumes?

Speaker 3

That's before any add back. I did I will point out, Travis, that there's $7,500,000 of expense for contractors and materials that is added back, but the lost production is not.

Speaker 4

Understood. Thank you for the time as well. Best of luck.

Speaker 0

Our next question is from Rob Maguire with Granite Research. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 5

Good morning, Mark and Cheryl. Congratulations on all your hard work paying off in the quarter and your recently announced plan with the preferred.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Rob. Thanks, Rob.

Speaker 5

Can you explain your second quarter HDAN volumes and how we should think about them relative to your capacity to produce HDAN, including how volumes may have been affected as a result of shifting production to other products?

Speaker 2

Yes. So if you looked at our first quarter, HDAN volumes were up year over year. And so we had a really good first quarter, sold out of inventory, right, because we produce, all winter, we store, and then we sell a lot of it in season. We definitely lost some production during the February freeze, so that hurt us. So we came into had a higher first quarter sales of HDAN, lost production in February, so we came into the second quarter with lower inventory, and that's why you see a lower number.

Having said that, we're definitely starting to, as I mentioned, we're in a sold out position, we're really starting to look at product pricing in the marketplace and where we're getting better returns. Nitric acid tends to be better margins for us than high density even at the prices that we see in the marketplace today.

Speaker 5

Great. Thank you. Nice ramp on your nitric acid contract, by the way, as well. When you look at the tonnage category for PAN nitric acid and other, how should we be thinking about this going forward? Is the second quarter run rate of about 118,000 tons sustainable?

Speaker 3

Yes. I mean, I would say, yes, it is. I mean, we are still ramping up as well on that nitric acid contract. And so I think it's reasonable to say that that's sustainable and maybe could be a little higher as we continue to ramp on that contract in the next six months.

Speaker 5

Great. And then with regards to your turnaround schedule, in the next couple of years here, any changes that we should be thinking about?

Speaker 2

No, we're in turnaround now at Cherokee. As Cheryl indicated in her prepared comments. And then we've got right now Pryor and El Dorado scheduled for next year. And they'll all be on three year turnaround cycles.

Speaker 5

Great. Thanks so much. I have no further questions.

Speaker 2

Thanks, Rob.

Speaker 0

Our next question is with Steve Ferrantzi with Sidoti and Company. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 6

Hi. Good morning, everyone. I I did wanna ask a couple more questions about the the guidance because, obviously, that's a that's a huge third quarter number, particularly with the turnaround. So as I try to back into it, I mean, you essentially thinking that your average selling prices are going to be very, very similar to 2Q? And I know you'll walk through some of those numbers.

Speaker 3

Yeah. Steve, I'm actually thinking they might be a little better than q two pricing from a realization point. And I talked about, you know, 300 UAN, and I talked about, you know, $500 ammonia in the ag markets. And so I'm thinking, yeah, a little higher than second quarter.

Speaker 2

Remember, Steve, How much? I was going say, Rick, just keep in mind that we had because of the freeze, we had orders that we had to fulfill at lower prices that ran into the beginning of the second quarter. We don't have that going into the third quarter.

Speaker 6

How much do you have a sense of how much you've forward so how much you've already sold for third quarter?

Speaker 2

On UAN, between our two facilities, production facilities, we're principally sold out for the third quarter. Okay.

Speaker 6

So you have a pretty good take on that third quarter number right now.

Speaker 2

That's a fair statement.

Speaker 6

Great. When I'm thinking about your industrial versus ag mix, and typically you'll see seasonality on the ag side. As you continue to expand or even at this level, does some of the seasonality come up come out of this as your mix is more leveraged towards industrial?

Speaker 2

Yeah. I mean, there's still the industrial business clearly has less seasonality than the ag business. Having said that, when we talk about industrial, we're probably 35%, maybe 40% pure industrial products with the balance being mining. There is some seasonality in the mining business depending on the location. If delivering to a mine in Canada, there's three or four months where their demand's going to be much lower just because of the cold weather.

To answer your point, or your question, yeah, the industrial business, industrial and mining business, absolutely has less seasonality than, the fertilizer business.

Speaker 6

And then, you know, when I look at your cost of sales per ton sequentially and natural gas prices down, I'm just trying to get a sense of are you seeing non natural gas prices? Are your costs going up a bit here? How are you thinking about those costs? Are you seeing cost inflation in general and on the labor side as well?

Speaker 3

Steve, it's primarily on the gas side. You know, gas costs are, you know, $3.53 60 per MMBtu right now in the third quarter if you look at our, you know, average blend versus, you know, about a dollar 50 cheaper this time last year. So it's primarily gas costs. And of course, we see some higher costs on precious metals just as it relates to catalyst to run our asset business. But those are the two primary areas where we're seeing higher costs.

Speaker 2

Yes, but we're not seeing we're really not seeing any increase in labor costs. We are seeing slight increases in some supplies, but I wouldn't call them material.

Speaker 0

Okay.

Speaker 6

And how does this now, obviously, everybody's already looking forward to next year and how you feel like you're positioned. Obviously, corn prices pulled back a bit here. We're thinking about China imports. Just thinking about your mix and you can't control fertilizer prices, but just how you think you're positioned into next year?

Speaker 2

Yes. So I mean, I'll start with the second half of this year. Based on our forward order book and where pricing sits today and some of the pricing that's already been announced for the fourth quarter, I feel really comfortable with our second half of this year. And in fact, I would say the second half of this year should be, and the expectation is to be better than the first half of this year. Going into next year, corn prices, even though they pulled back, are still really good.

You know, 5 corn, dollars 5.5 corn, historically, has been a good price. Farmers are making money. That's important. I think we're still seeing some pretty good demand from China. That could change.

I don't think we understand the dynamics there. And that could change fast. But right now I think we're still seeing demand. I think what's interesting is the corn crop in Brazil has really not been a great year for them. And so we're gonna see numbers coming out of Brazil that should be lower than what was anticipated some months ago.

We've also had some really hot and dry weather here in the Western United States and I think we're going to see yield numbers coming out of Western states that, or Mid West or Western states that are growing corn that are going to be below expectations. I think you're going see a lot of acres planted next year. I think at north of $5 corn, that's a really strong market. And we anticipate that fertilizer prices will still be relatively high compared to certainly the 2016 to 2020 pricing we saw during those years. So we're pretty excited about next year.

We think that if we continue to execute and we've got room to improve on our execution, we'll have a really good year.

Speaker 6

Okay. Thanks so much everyone. Congratulations on the quarter. Thank you. Thank you.

Speaker 0

Our next question is from Brian DeRobio with Robert W. Baird. Please proceed with your question.

Speaker 7

Good morning. Maybe just starting off, do you mind sharing any thoughts you have on the recently announced US Department of Commerce investigation into dumping of UAN from Russia and Trinidad And Tobago?

Speaker 2

Yeah. So I mean, CF filed, an anti dumping suit, against Russia and Trinidad, on imported UAN. So I'm gonna paraphrase it because I don't remember, certainly the exact wording. But in anti dumping suits, the claim usually is, that someone who's importing is bringing in product at kind of, I wouldn't say artificial pricing, and very low pricing and dumping it here in The United States, so it creates competition issue. And so CF is claiming that Russian gas prices, in theory, could be what they want.

So it's a totally different market than it is here for gas. And so what's the actual cost of product coming in? If the cost is low, then they can afford to lower selling prices. With Trinidad, it's a bit different, but it's the same concept. So I think you saw an anti dumping, suit that was filed earlier, this year, it's probably filed late last year on phosphate, and it just follows suit under the same premise.

Speaker 7

I guess the thought was, you know, what impact do you think that could have on the business? And, you UAN has been depressed over the last several years. A couple of your peers have said that those flows have seemed to disappear. I'm just trying to get a sense, from you how you think that could impact pricing going forward.

Speaker 2

Well, usually when there's an anti, dumping suit in place and they put either a tariff or some kind of tax or penalty on an importer, you see imports moving into other countries. So the supply then is taken out of the marketplace and you see selling price appreciation on that particular product. If that happened, would expect the same.

Speaker 7

Okay. Can you provide any update on the Lidus lawsuit?

Speaker 2

Yeah. So we still don't have a court date, unfortunately. We have another hearing scheduled in the fall to sit down and talk about next steps. Certainly the surge in COVID cases, and Arkansas being a state that has a high number of cases, in fact, think they're top five in The United States now, is in helping matters.

Speaker 7

Okay. So this is more than likely pushed into 2022?

Speaker 2

Yes, I would think so.

Speaker 7

Okay. And then I know circumstances are different, but assuming that the engineering study that you're conducting on the blue green ammonia plant is sort of approved. I guess two part question there. How much capital are you willing to commit towards a project like that? I know it's going to be return dependent, but more importantly, given the issue you had with the El Dorado project, how is the company positioned today to better manage that construction risk versus several years ago?

Speaker 2

Well, yes, so let me answer the first part. The magnitude of the investment is nothing like it would have been for the project that we did in El Dorado, right? That was $835,000,000 So it's by multiples, less than the capital commitment that we had made there. Having said that, it still has to provide us with the right returns. And that's a big focus for us.

I do think that being an early entrant into the market creates a lot of value. It has a lot of value for us. And so I think we're focused on that as well. Managing the project, one way you can do that is you can get a fixed price contract, which we didn't do in the El Dorado Expansion. So that's one direction we could go.

The other would be to have a much greater level of oversight and to make sure that any contractor that would be working on this certainly has skin in the game as opposed to just a straight time and materials contract. I think there are a lot of lessons learned from that. And I think we would take a lot of precautions to make sure that we would mitigate our risk.

Speaker 7

Great. Just final question for me. As you mentioned potentially M and A, would that be and this is all speculation, would that be something you would fund entirely with debt? Or would you consider issuing equity alongside of that? Thank you.

Speaker 2

I think it's a hard question to answer. I think Travis asked the question earlier about leverage and being below four times and would we lever up for an M and A transaction? And I think my answer was that we would if we could see a clear path over the next twelve to eighteen months, or twelve to eighteen months post closing of that acquisition that we could get leverage back down below. So we're not afraid of levering back up for

Speaker 4

a

Speaker 2

good acquisition. Having said that, don't think you'd see us to lever up to put the company in a position where we couldn't see our way to delever back down. If that required some issuance of equity, we would consider that. But it has to be accretive to earnings. Otherwise, it wouldn't make sense for us to do.

Speaker 7

Understood. Appreciate the thoughts.

Speaker 2

Sure.

Speaker 0

Ladies and gentlemen, we have reached the end of the question and answer session, and I would like to turn the call back over to Mark Barron for closing remarks.

Speaker 2

I want to thank everyone for participating in the call and appreciate your interest. If you have any follow-up questions, feel free to give Cheryl and myself a call. And we'll be reaching out to some of you once we file the proxy to discuss the exchange transaction further and looking for a favorable vote. Thank you.

Speaker 0

This concludes today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.