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Lyft, Inc. (LYFT)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Record Q3 with Gross Bookings $4.78B (+16% y/y), revenue $1.69B (+11% y/y), net income $46.1M and Adjusted EBITDA $138.9M; Active Riders (+18% y/y to 28.7M) and Rides (+15% y/y to 248.8M) reached all-time highs .
  • Q4 guide calls for accelerating growth: Gross Bookings $5.01–$5.13B (+17–20% y/y), Adjusted EBITDA $135–$155M, margin 2.7–3.0% .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus, Q3 revenue was slightly below ($1.686B vs $1.698B estimate*) and Primary EPS was roughly in line ($0.30 actual* vs $0.31 estimate*); note SPGI EPS differs from GAAP diluted EPS ($0.11) reported by Lyft .
  • Call catalysts: integrated AV partnership with Waymo (Lyft to invest ~$10–15M depot, “earn regardless of platform”), CA insurance reform (SB371) expected to reduce rider prices in 2026 and stimulate demand, and underpenetrated markets contributed ~70% of Q3 rides growth .

Values retrieved from S&P Global*

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Record KPIs and profitability: “all-time high records for Active Riders and Gross Bookings,” Adjusted EBITDA up 29% y/y to $138.9M; TTM free cash flow surpassed $1.0B for the first time .
    • Market momentum in underpenetrated geographies: ~70% of Q3 rides growth came from these markets; management cited targeted programs (e.g., back-to-school at college towns) .
    • Strategic partnerships expanding TAM and utilization: integrated supply management AV partnership with Waymo designed for high availability/utilization; Lyft “earns regardless of platform” and will build a Nashville depot (~$10–15M) .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Slight top-line shortfall vs SPGI consensus: revenue $1.685B vs $1.698B estimate* (≈0.8% miss); Primary EPS roughly in line at $0.30 actual* vs $0.31 estimate*; GAAP diluted EPS reported by Lyft was $0.11 . Values retrieved from S&P Global*
    • Insurance still a headwind near term: 2025 “101 renewals” imply mid-single-digit per-ride insurance cost increase; CA reform benefits begin in 2026, not immediate .
    • Non-GAAP adjustments and acquisition costs: Adjusted EBITDA excludes $66.6M SBC and $11.6M acquisition/divestiture-related costs in Q3, underscoring reliance on adjustments during scale-up .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Gross Bookings ($USD Millions)$4,162.4 $4,490.1 $4,780.4
Revenue ($USD Millions)$1,450.2 $1,588.2 $1,685.2
Net Income ($USD Millions)$2.6 $40.3 $46.1
Diluted EPS ($)$0.01 $0.10 $0.11
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$106.5 $129.4 $138.9
Adjusted EBITDA Margin % (of GB)2.6% 2.9% 2.9%
Net Cash from Ops ($USD Millions)$287.2 $343.7 $291.3
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$280.7 $329.4 $277.8

KPIs

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Active Riders (Millions)24.2 26.1 28.7
Rides (Millions)218.4 234.8 248.8

Consensus vs Actual (S&P Global)

MetricQ3 2025 ConsensusQ3 2025 ActualSurprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)1,698.4*1,685.2 -13.2 (≈-0.8%)*
Primary EPS ($)0.3113*0.2990*-0.0123*

Values retrieved from S&P Global*

Notes: Lyft reports GAAP diluted EPS of $0.11 in Q3; S&P Global “Primary EPS” may reflect a standardized/non-GAAP basis and is not directly comparable to GAAP diluted EPS . Adjusted EBITDA of $138.9M is a non-GAAP measure that excludes SBC and other items .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent/OutcomeChange
Rides Growth (y/y)Q4 2025—Mid- to high-teens New
Gross Bookings ($B)Q4 2025—$5.01–$5.13 (+17–20% y/y) New
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)Q4 2025—$135–$155; margin 2.7–3.0% New
Gross Bookings ($B)Q3 2025$4.65–$4.80 (guided on 8/6) $4.780 actual At high end
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)Q3 2025$125–$145 (guided on 8/6) $138.9 actual Near high end
Adjusted EBITDA Margin % (of GB)Q3 20252.7–3.0% (guided on 8/6) 2.9% actual Within range

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ1 2025 (Prior-2)Q2 2025 (Prior-1)Q3 2025 (Current)Trend
AI/TechnologyLaunched AI “Earnings Assistant” for drivers; introduced Lyft Silver for older adults Partnerships announced with Baidu, BENTELER; continued high-value modes growth AV integration with Waymo (hybrid network); planned partnership with Tensor powered by NVIDIA; depot capex ~$10–15M Expanding platform tech/AV execution
Macro/Regulatory (Insurance)——CA SB371 insurance reform to reduce rider insurance cost in 2026; 2025 renewals mid-single-digit per-ride increase 2026 tailwind; near-term modest headwind
Product/MarketplaceRecord Q1 rides and Active Riders; business traveler rewards Record rides/Active Riders; strengthened partnerships (United, Alaska, Chase, DoorDash) Record KPIs; underpenetrated markets drove ~70% of rides growth Sustained demand, geographic expansion
Partnerships—United announced; Baidu; BENTELER Waymo AV integration; Curb taxi integration; United live Broadening supply/utilization levers
International/AcquisitionsFREENOW acquisition announced (April) [42/44 refs in Q2 set]FREENOW closed on 7/31; will flow through P&L; expect acceleration in 2026 TBR Global Chauffeuring acquired in Oct; FREENOW top-line ~€1B expected in 2026 Building global, high-end footprint
Healthcare/B2B——Renewed focus on universities, healthcare (Lyft Health), business rewards (6% back) Re-accelerating B2B channels

Management Commentary

  • “Our Q3 results prove that Lyft’s comeback strategy is working… We once again smashed records… and acquired a world-class luxury chauffeuring company” — CEO David Risher .
  • “Adjusted EBITDA grew 29% year-over-year and our free cash flow generation for the trailing 12 months was over $1 billion for the first time” — CEO David Risher .
  • “We expect a mid single digit increase [in insurance] on a per ride basis… Our team continues to make really strong progress in bending that insurance cost curve” — CFO Erin Brewer .
  • On AV economics: “Lyft earns regardless of platform… we are building a depot… about $10–$15 million investment” — CFO Erin Brewer .
  • On 2026 setup: “Multiple catalysts… United partnership, full-year FREENOW and TBR, and strong growth in underpenetrated markets” — CFO Erin Brewer .

Q&A Highlights

  • AV strategy and economics: Hybrid network with Waymo designed for high availability and utilization; Lyft monetizes fleet availability and rides; initial Nashville depot capex ~$10–15M; model intended to be accretive over time .
  • Insurance trajectory: 2025 renewals mid-single-digit per-ride cost increase; CA SB371 in 2026 expected to reduce rider insurance charges (>$6/ride average in CA in 2025), with most savings passed through to stimulate demand .
  • Growth mix: Underpenetrated markets contributed ~70% of rides growth in Q3; targeted programs (e.g., back-to-school) driving outsized results .
  • International/Acquisitions: FREENOW to accelerate in 2026 (~€1B top line); TBR expands high-value, global chauffeur services; Canada also a growth driver (~11.5M rides in Q3) .
  • B2B focus: Universities, healthcare (non-emergency medical transportation), business rewards (6% back) to deepen high-value cohorts .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 vs SPGI: Revenue $1.686B vs $1.698B consensus (slight miss); SPGI “Primary EPS” $0.30 actual vs $0.31 estimate* (roughly in line). Lyft’s reported GAAP diluted EPS was $0.11, which is not directly comparable to SPGI “Primary EPS” . Values retrieved from S&P Global*
  • Q4 2025 SPGI consensus revenue is $1.76B*, while Lyft guided to Gross Bookings $5.01–$5.13B and Adjusted EBITDA $135–$155M (no revenue guide provided) . Values retrieved from S&P Global*
  • Note: SPGI “EBITDA” is standardized and not directly comparable to Lyft’s reported Adjusted EBITDA (non-GAAP) .

Values retrieved from S&P Global*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Demand and engagement are inflecting: all-time highs in Active Riders, Rides, and Gross Bookings; underpenetrated markets are a durable growth vector (~70% of rides growth) .
  • Profitability scaling with discipline: Adjusted EBITDA at 2.9% of Gross Bookings and TTM free cash flow >$1.0B support continued investment and optionality .
  • Near-term headwind, medium-term tailwind on insurance: 2025 per-ride insurance costs trend up mid-single digits; 2026 CA reform should allow price cuts and incremental demand .
  • AV approach is pragmatic and monetizable: hybrid network with Waymo aims to maximize utilization; Lyft earns on fleet availability and rides; initial Nashville capex sized at ~$10–15M .
  • International and premium mix expansion: FREENOW and TBR add global reach and higher-value segments; management expects FREENOW ~€1B top line in 2026 .
  • Q4 guide signals acceleration: Gross Bookings up 17–20% y/y and Adjusted EBITDA $135–$155M, keeping margins ~2.7–3.0% of GB .
  • Trading setup: modest Q3 revenue miss vs SPGI*, but clean execution (records, high-end delivery vs Q3 guide), accelerating guide, and clear 2026 catalysts (United, AV, insurance reform) are likely the core narrative drivers near term .

Supporting Data (Additional Details)

  • Non-GAAP adjustments in Q3 Adjusted EBITDA include SBC $66.6M and $11.6M acquisition/divestiture costs; other income $25.8M benefited GAAP results .
  • Balance sheet/liquidity: Cash & cash equivalents $1.31B, short-term investments $0.69B at 9/30; long-term debt $1.01B post September 2030 converts .
  • Partnerships: United live; Curb taxi integration (LA first) to improve availability, wait times, and driver earnings .

Values retrieved from S&P Global*