Executive Summary

Record Q3 driven by global stadium strength: revenue $8.50B (+11% y/y), operating income $0.79B (+24% y/y), and AOI $1.03B (+14% y/y), with record deferred revenue signaling strong 2025–26 visibility .
Against S&P Global consensus, revenue was slightly below ($8.50B vs $8.61B*) and EPS materially missed ($0.73 vs $1.30*), as higher tax expense, elevated accretion to noncontrolling interests, and higher D&A weighed on GAAP EPS despite strong AOI .
Concerts led by stadiums (show count +60% y/y); Ticketmaster AOI +21% with 89M fee-bearing tickets (+4%) and fee-bearing GTV +12%; Sponsorship AOI +14% with 71% margin .
2025 outlook reiterated: double‑digit AOI growth, margins largely “similar to last year,” OCF/FCF‑adj growth double‑digits; 2026 leading indicators up double-digits (shows, ticket sales, sponsorship). Refinancing lifts liquidity by $1.5B; WACD down 30 bps to 4.2% .
Potential catalysts: durable demand (record deferred revenue), 2026 large-venue pipeline, and anti‑scalper/ID verification rollout; overhangs include FTC/DOJ cases and near‑term EPS pressure from taxes, accretion, and higher D&A .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Stadium-led outperformance: record stadium show count (+60% y/y), with over 51M fans hosted and double‑digit stadium fan growth across major markets .
- Ticketing strength: Ticketing AOI +21% on fee‑bearing GTV +12%; 89M fee-bearing tickets (+4%); margins ~36% .
- Demand visibility: record Q3 deferred revenue (Event‑Related $3.5B +37%; Ticketmaster $231M +30%), plus 2026 pipeline up double‑digits; “positioning Live Nation on a clear path for double-digit operating income and AOI growth this year and compounding…over the next several years” (CEO) .
- Quote: “Strong fan demand drove another record quarter… positioning Live Nation on a clear path for double-digit operating income and AOI growth this year and compounding… over the next several years.” – Michael Rapino .
What Went Wrong
- EPS shortfall vs consensus: diluted EPS $0.73 vs $1.30* as GAAP was impacted by higher tax expense ($251.8M vs $70.2M y/y), higher accretion of redeemable noncontrolling interests ($259.9M vs $54.5M y/y), and increased D&A; these outweighed AOI growth .
- Mix headwind: ~250 fewer amphitheater shows and flat arenas, offset by stadiums; management framed amps/arenas softness as cyclical rather than structural .
- Higher depreciation/amortization guidance: now +~~$100M y/y for 2025 (was +~~$75M in Q2), adding to near‑term EPS drag .

Financial Results

Metric	Q3 2024	Q2 2025	Q3 2025 (Actual)	Q3 2025 Consensus
Revenue ($USD Billions)	$7.65	$7.01	$8.50	$8.61*
Diluted EPS ($)	$1.66	$0.41	$0.73	$1.30*
Operating Income ($USD Billions)	$0.64	$0.49	$0.79	N/A
Adjusted Operating Income (AOI) ($USD Billions)	$0.91	$0.80	$1.03	N/A

Estimates asterisk: Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment performance (Q3 2025 vs Q3 2024)

Segment	Revenue ($M) Q3’24	Revenue ($M) Q3’25	YoY %	AOI ($M) Q3’24	AOI ($M) Q3’25	YoY %	AOI Margin Q3’25
Concerts	6,580.6	7,282.5	11%	474.1	514.2	8%	7.1%
Ticketing	693.7	797.6	15%	235.7	285.9	21%	36%
Sponsorship & Advertising	390.3	442.7	13%	275.3	313.1	14%	71%

Key KPIs

KPI	Q3 2025	Commentary
Event‑Related Deferred Revenue	$3.5B (+37% y/y)	Robust demand for 2025–26 shows
Ticketmaster Deferred Revenue	$231M (+30% y/y)	75% of growth from international markets
Fee‑bearing Tickets	89M (+4% y/y)
Fee‑bearing GTV	+12% y/y	Driven by demand/market pricing for best seats
Stadium Show Count	+60% y/y (record)	Led growth across all major markets
Fans Hosted	>51M	International fans up double‑digits (Europe, Mexico)
Onsite Spend	Amps +8% YTD; Festivals (>100k) +6% YTD
FCF — Adjusted (Q3)	$649.3M
Free Cash (9/30/25)	$1.51B	Cash & equivalents $6.75B

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Company AOI growth	FY2025	Double‑digit growth on track	Double‑digit growth on track	Maintained
Concerts margin	FY2025	Margin similar to last year	Margin similar to last year	Maintained
Ticketmaster margin	FY2025	Margin similar to prior years	Margin similar to last year	Maintained
Sponsorship margin	FY2025	Margin similar; AOI up double‑digits with Q4 strength	Margin similar; AOI growth to accelerate in Q4	Maintained
Operating Cash Flow / FCF‑adj	FY2025	Grow double‑digits	Grow double‑digits	Maintained
Capex	FY2025	$900M–$1.0B	~ $1.0B	Tightened toward upper end
Interest expense / WACD	Run‑rate	Not specified	~ $350M p.a.; WACD ~4.2% (−30 bps)	New / Lower WACD
Tax expense	FY2025	15–20% of AOI	15–20% of AOI; cash taxes ~80% of tax expense	Maintained (cash tax clarity)
D&A	FY2025	+~$75M y/y	+~$100M y/y	Raised
Accretion expense	Q4 2025	~$35M (Q2 view)	~ $40M in Q4	Slightly higher

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)	Current Period (Q3 2025)	Trend
Demand & mix	Q1: record deferred rev; stadium pipeline +60% ; Q2: attendance +14%, stadium fans tripled y/y	Record stadium show count (+60%); over 51M fans; international outpacing U.S.	Positive, stadium‑led; international mix rising
Amphitheaters/arenas	Q1/Q2: strong venue pipeline; new amphitheaters	~250 fewer amp shows; arenas flat; management calls it cyclical	Temporary headwind in 2025, expected to normalize in 2026
Ticketing tech/anti‑scalper	Prior: expansion, record deferred rev	Shutting Trade Desk; rolling out ID verification; >1M accounts canceled; low‑to‑mid single‑digit AOI impact expected	Compliance/consumer focus; limited financial drag
Regulatory/legal	Ongoing DOJ scrutiny (prior periods)	DOJ trial date reaffirmed Mar 6; FTC case viewed as weak by mgmt	Legal overhang persists
International growth	Q1: LATAM/APAC strength ; Q2: international fans +30%	International fans on track to surpass U.S.; 2026 ticket sales + double‑digits	Accelerating
AI/Technology leadership	Noted platform strength	New global Ticketmaster leader with strong engineering/AI background to accelerate platform/agent initiatives	Building capabilities

Management Commentary

“Strong fan demand drove another record quarter… positioning Live Nation on a clear path for double-digit operating income and AOI growth this year and compounding at this growth level over the next several years.” – Michael Rapino, CEO .
“Overall, for the concert segment, we grew AOI by about $40 million… 120 more stadium shows… Estadio GNP reopening and building back up the Rogers Stadium in Toronto… about 250 fewer amp shows… arenas about flat.” – Joe Berchtold, President & CFO .
“Identity verification tools… a key tool we've used in canceling over a million accounts over the past month… we don't see this fundamentally impacting our growth strategy.” – Joe Berchtold .
“We look at next year as being a very, very strong stadium year again.” – Joe Berchtold .

Q&A Highlights

Venue mix and profitability: Growth driven by stadiums (operated venues helped per‑fan profitability); fewer amp shows and flat arenas seen as cyclical, not structural .
Anti‑scalper actions: Shutting Trade Desk; rolling out ID verification targeting high‑risk accounts; >1M accounts canceled; expected low‑ to mid‑single‑digit AOI impact to Ticketmaster next year .
Regulatory update: DOJ case progressing to March 6 trial; FTC case viewed as legally weak; changes were in motion pre‑suit (e.g., ID verification) .
2026 outlook: Large‑venue pipeline up double‑digits; ticket sales for 2026 already 26M, up double‑digits; sponsorship commitments ~65% booked .
Macro: No signs of low‑end consumer pressure; advance sales for 2026 robust .

Estimates Context

Metric	Q1 2025	Q2 2025	Q3 2025
Revenue ($B) – S&P Global	$3.50* vs $3.38 actual	$6.89* vs $7.01 actual	$8.61* vs $8.50 actual
EPS ($) – S&P Global	−$0.43* vs −$0.32 actual	$1.04* vs $0.41 actual	$1.30* vs $0.73 actual

Estimates asterisk: Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Implications: Recurrent EPS shortfalls despite strong AOI reflect (i) higher effective tax ($251.8M in Q3 vs $70.2M y/y), (ii) elevated accretion to noncontrolling interests (−$259.9M vs −$54.5M y/y), and (iii) higher D&A; consensus may need to better incorporate these below‑the‑line items and updated D&A run‑rate (+~~$100M y/y) and interest expense (~~$350M p.a.) .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Top‑line and AOI momentum intact: robust stadium cycle and international expansion continue to drive AOI even as mix shifts; record deferred revenue underpins 2025–26 visibility .
EPS/GAAP optics vs AOI: Expect near‑term EPS pressure from higher taxes, accretion to noncontrolling interests, and D&A; AOI remains a better proxy for operating performance .
2026 setup strong: large‑venue pipeline, early ticket sales, and sponsorship commitments all up double‑digits; management confident but will quantify in February .
Ticketing actions mitigate platform risk: anti‑bot/ID verification measures may slightly dent Ticketmaster AOI but improve fan trust and regulatory posture .
Balance sheet improved: $1.9B refinancing increased liquidity by $1.5B and lowered WACD to ~~4.2%, supporting venue investments and growth capex (~~$1B in 2025) .
Watch items: amphitheater/arena normalization into 2026; evolution of DOJ/FTC cases; D&A and tax rate cadence; accretion expense trajectory post‑OCESA .
Trading lens: Narrative likely pivots on durability of demand (deferred revenue, 2026 pipeline) versus GAAP EPS optics; updates at investor day and February guide can be catalysts .

Additional Relevant Q3 Press Releases

Convertible notes offering/pricing to term out 2026 notes and refinance credit facilities; supports liquidity and lowers cost of capital .
Ticketmaster named Founding Partner for Monumental Sports’ next‑gen D.C. arena, embedding platform across teams and media ecosystem (strategic footprint) .
Shareholder legal notices referencing the FTC complaint (highlighting ongoing regulatory overhang) .

Non‑GAAP definitions and reconciliations: AOI excludes acquisition expenses, amortization of non‑recoupable ticketing contract advances, D&A, gains/losses on asset sales, stock‑based comp, and certain Astroworld items; FCF‑adjusted is operating cash flow less working capital changes, maintenance capex, and NCI distributions .

Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary