MC
MASIMO CORP (MASI)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2025 results are not yet filed; Masimo last reported Q3 2025 with GAAP revenue $371.5M (+8.2% Y/Y), non-GAAP EPS $1.32 (+38% Y/Y) and non-GAAP operating margin 27.1% (+450 bps Y/Y), while tightening FY25 revenue and raising margin/EPS guidance; Q4 includes an extra selling week and management expects consumables to accelerate into year-end .
- Guidance raised: FY25 non-GAAP EPS to $5.40–$5.55 (from $5.20–$5.45), operating margin to 27.3%–27.7% (from 27.0%–27.5%); revenue narrowed to $1.510–$1.530B (from $1.505–$1.535B) .
- Tariffs remain a headwind (~140 bps hit to Q3 gross margin and operating margin), but mitigation reduced FY25 tariff impact to ~$16–$17M from $33–$37M previously; Q4 will see stepped-up tariff cost recognition through inventory flow-through .
- Strategic catalysts into Q4: expanded Philips partnership (share gains opportunity), continued capital return (buybacks funded by Sound United sale), and a November jury verdict awarding Masimo $634.3M against Apple in patent litigation .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
- What Went Well
- Earnings quality and leverage: Q3 non-GAAP operating margin expanded 450 bps Y/Y to 27.1%; non-GAAP EPS +38% to $1.32, supported by cost optimization and operating efficiency initiatives .
- Contracting and backlog indicators: Q3 incremental new contracts $124M (best Q3 on record); unrecognized contract revenue to be recognized in next 12 months rose 17% Y/Y to $507M; shipped 66,000 technology boards/instruments, +8% Y/Y .
- Strategic focus and partnerships: CEO underscored momentum in core healthcare and expanded Philips partnership to accelerate device integration and AI algorithms; new AI-enabled sensor roadmap (e.g., opioid-induced respiratory depression) targeted for 2026 launches .
- What Went Wrong
- Mix and comps: Consumables grew just 1% Y/Y in Q3 on tough comps (20% growth in Q3’24); capital equipment rebounded +67% Y/Y off a weak base; management expects normalization as comps roll off .
- Tariff drag: Q3 gross margin declined 70 bps Y/Y to 62.2% due to ~140 bps tariff headwind despite ~+70 bps operational gains; tariffs increased Q3 cost of sales by $5M .
- Distribution shifts and accounting frictions: Move from direct to distributor in some international markets creates a ~$6M FY25 revenue headwind (neutral to profitability); leasing (ASC 842) continues to shift some capital revenue recognition timing .
Financial Results
Note: Q4 2025 not yet reported as of this writing. Latest quarterly trend below.
Segment/Category mix (as reported):
Key operating KPIs:
Estimates comparison for Q4 2025: S&P Global consensus was not retrievable at this time due to a rate limit. We will update with beat/miss once data is accessible. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Guidance Changes
Management reiterated that Q4 2025 has an extra selling week; benefit is largely offset by discontinued products and distributor model shifts in certain international markets .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Revenues grew 8%, operating margin improved by 450 basis points, and EPS grew by 38%... We closed the sale of Sound United... and announced the expansion of our strategic partnership with Philips” — CEO Katie Szyman, Q3 PR .
- “Our gross margin of 62.2% experienced a decline of 70 basis points compared to the prior year due to tariff impacts outweighing operational improvements... Tariffs increased our cost of sales by $5 million this quarter” — CFO Micah Young, Q3 call .
- “We are tightening our full-year revenue guidance... raising our operating margin guidance... and raising our earnings per share guidance to be in the range of $5.40–$5.55” — CFO, Q3 call .
- “Under [the Philips] partnership, Philips will expedite the adoption of our AI algorithm across additional devices and market segments... including the integration of capnography and the launch of next-gen wearables” — CEO, Q3 call .
Q&A Highlights
- Consumables normalization: Q3 consumables +1% Y/Y due to prior-year strength; management expects stronger consumables in Q4 with contract-driven shipments .
- Distributor model impact: Shift from direct-to-distributor in some OUS markets creates a ~$6M FY25 revenue headwind, neutral to earnings/margins; bulk in Q4 .
- Philips partnership outlook: Masimo remains under-indexed in Philips’ installed base; sees runway to gain share over next five years while maintaining product mix .
- Capital allocation: Post-Sound United, priority on buybacks at current valuation and tuck-in tech acquisitions ; $350M buybacks 3Q–4Q to date .
- Tariffs: Annualized COGS impact after implemented mitigation estimated at ~200–260 bps, with potential to halve over time via further actions .
Estimates Context
- We attempted to retrieve S&P Global consensus for Q4 2025, FY2025, and FY2026 (revenue, EPS, EBITDA), but the request hit a daily limit; therefore, specific consensus figures are unavailable at this time. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- Directionally, management raised FY25 EPS and margin guidance in Q3, implying a stronger earnings exit rate into Q4 despite tariff headwinds and distribution shifts .
- We will update beat/miss analysis vs consensus once SPGI estimates become accessible. Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Setup into Q4 is constructive: raised FY25 EPS/margin guidance and messaging of stronger consumables in Q4 (plus an extra week) should support a healthy year-end print, while capital may be softer Q/Q on seasonality and mix .
- Margin story intact despite tariffs: operational improvements and mitigation have outpaced tariff headwinds YTD, with a credible plan to further reduce annualized COGS impact over time .
- Demand indicators robust: record Q3 contracting, higher next-12-month unrecognized revenue, and increased board shipments underscore durable demand and visibility .
- Strategic levers: expanded Philips partnership (share gains), AI-enabled sensing roadmap (e.g., OIRD), and continued portfolio investment target multi-year growth beyond pulse oximetry .
- Capital allocation supportive: sale of Sound United redeploys capital to buybacks and selective tuck-ins; share repurchases already added ~$0.08 to FY25 EPS guidance midpoint .
- Legal tailwind: the $634.3M jury verdict vs Apple reinforces IP strength and may act as a sentiment catalyst, though timing/collection risk remains inherent to litigation outcomes .
- Watch Q4 call for: consumables acceleration, tariff flow-through, distributor transition in OUS, Philips integration cadence, and 2026 framework (company plans to detail longer-term outlook at Investor Day) .
Appendix: Additional Q4 2025 Context
- Investor Day scheduled for December 3, 2025, where management will outline strategy, product pipeline, and long-term financial outlook .
- FY24 baselines: Healthcare revenue $1.395B (+9% Y/Y), non-GAAP EPS $4.40 (+16% Y/Y) .
- Q4 seasonality: extra selling week provides ~1 pt to FY25 growth but largely offset by portfolio and channel changes, per CFO .