908 Devices - Earnings Call - Q3 2025

Executive Summary

• Q3 revenue from continuing operations was $14.0M, down 4% YoY but up sequentially vs Q2, with recurring revenue at $4.8M (35% of total) and adjusted gross margin at 58%; adjusted EBITDA loss improved to $1.8M, the best in company history, positioning for positive adjusted EBITDA in Q4.
• Against S&P Global consensus, MASS delivered a revenue beat ($14.0M vs $13.52M*) and an EPS beat (Primary EPS -$0.044 actual vs -$0.115* estimate), though company-reported GAAP loss per share was -$0.41, highlighting methodology differences between GAAP and S&P “Primary EPS”. Values retrieved from S&P Global*.
• 2025 revenue guidance was maintained at $54–$56M; management reiterated a Q4 adjusted EBITDA-positive target but flagged potential ~$4M timing risk tied to U.S. government shutdown and export licenses, with plans to mitigate via other pipeline opportunities.
• Product momentum: record Explorer (FTIR gas ID) placements (+30% QoQ), initial VipIR shipments, and strong state/local channel mix (47% of YTD revenue); pipeline includes >35 VipIR units secured for Q4 shipment and U.S. Coast Guard’s Q3 purchase of 23 MX908 units.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Record adjusted EBITDA performance and structural cost progress: “best Adjusted EBITDA performance in our public company history,” and a 53% QoQ reduction in adjusted EBITDA loss to -$1.8M; management targets adjusted EBITDA positivity in Q4.
• Product traction in FTIR and MX: record Explorer placements (+30% QoQ), initial VipIR shipments (pilot with Southeast Asia intelligence agencies and >35 units secured for Q4), plus 23 MX908s to the U.S. Coast Guard, supporting growth into 2026.
• Mix shift toward more predictable channels: U.S. state and local channel was 47% of YTD revenues and recurring revenue represented 35% in Q3, advancing the “run-rate” strategy and reducing reliance on lumpy federal/defense awards.

What Went Wrong

• Federal/defense timing headwinds: management estimates ~$4M of Q4 revenue at risk from government shutdown and export licensing delays, potentially pressuring Q4 scale required for EBITDA positivity if not mitigated.
• Gross margin headwinds YoY: GAAP gross margin 53% (54% prior-year) and adjusted gross margin 58% (down ~60 bps YoY), driven by mix and unabsorbed costs from new precision machining operations (expected to normalize as production ramps).
• Continued GAAP losses: Q3 GAAP net loss from continuing operations was -$14.9M and GAAP loss/share was -$0.41; operating expenses include non-cash contingent consideration fair value impact (+$22.8M YoY swing), complicating GAAP optics.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for joining us, and welcome to the 908 Devices Third Quarter 2025 financial results conference call. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please raise your hand. If you have dialed into today's call, please press star nine to raise your hand and star six to unmute when it is your turn. I would now like to turn the call over to Barbara Russo, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Barbara Russo (Head of Investor Relations)

Thank you. This morning, 908 Devices released financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025. If you've not received this news release, or if you'd like to be added to the company's distribution list, please send an email to [email protected]. Joining me today from 908 is Kevin Knopp, Chief Executive Officer and Co-founder, and Joe Griffith, Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, our commentary today will include the presentation of some non-GAAP financial measures. These measures should be considered as a supplement to, and not a substitute for, GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in today's earnings press release, which is available in the Investor Relations section of our website. Additionally, I'd like to remind you that management will make statements during this call that are forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws.

These statements involve material risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results or events to materially differ from those anticipated. Additional information regarding these risks and uncertainties appears in the section entitled Forward-Looking Statements in the press release 908 Devices issued today. For a more complete list and description, please see the risk factors section of the company's annual report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2024, and in its other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Except as required by law, 908 Devices disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any financial projections or forward-looking statements, whether because of new information, future events, or otherwise. This conference call contains time-sensitive information and is accurate only as of the live broadcast, November 10, 2025. With that, I'd like to turn the call over to Kevin.

Kevin Knopp (CEO and Co-founder)

Thanks, Barbara. Good morning, and thank you for joining our Third Quarter 2025 earnings call. I'm incredibly proud of the momentum we've built and the progress our team is driving. We're executing the plan, sharpening our focus, and setting the stage for a stronger, more profitable 908 Devices. Revenue from continuing operations was $14 million, down 4% year over year and up 8% sequentially. Growth was driven this quarter by our FTIR devices, which accounted for 42% of revenue, as we continue to see very strong demand for our Explorer Gas Identification device. Another revenue highlight was the U.S. Coast Guard's purchase of 23 MX908 devices for narcotics interdiction efforts and hazardous threat detection. In total, we placed 176 devices during the quarter, growing our installed base 27% year over year to over 3,500 devices.

Considering our year-to-date progress, revenues from continuing operations for the first nine months totaled $38.8 million, representing an increase of 16% year over year. Recurring revenue represented 36% of total revenue. Moreover, revenue from our U.S. state and local channel for the first nine months represented 47% of total revenues. Growth in this channel and in our recurring revenues are key parts of our strategy to enhance predictability, as this is more run-rate business versus large enterprise device deals, which can be lumpy. We also made excellent progress towards our adjusted EBITDA target for 2025. Our adjusted EBITDA loss was just $1.8 million for the third quarter, an improvement of more than $5 million year over year compared to our previous disclosed adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2024 prior to our transformation. Importantly, the adjusted EBITDA loss reduced by 53% quarter over quarter.

I'd like to thank our team for their tremendous effort over the past few months as we realized these savings. This is our lowest adjusted EBITDA loss in our public company's history, demonstrating that the structural changes are working and providing a solid foundation for achieving our goal of becoming adjusted EBITDA positive in Q4. Overall, I'm pleased with our execution this quarter as we continue to build momentum towards our growth and profitability goals. While our transform strategy is taking hold and our Q4 pipeline remains healthy, we continue to gauge the effects from the protracted U.S. government shutdown in three areas of our business. First, demand from state and local customers remains strong, supported by multi-year federal grant programs that remain active. Second, international engagement and order flow remain solid. However, U.S. export licensing requirements may extend delivery timing in some cases.

Third, while smaller federal and defense orders have continued to move forward, larger awards have experienced delays due to constrained staffing and contracting authorities. We estimate that approximately $4 million of our Q4 revenue could be potentially impacted by delays in these areas. However, our base case remains that we are on track to achieve our full-year guidance, and we view any near-term impact as a timing issue as our strategic alignment remains strong. We believe we are well-positioned as appropriations advance and contracting activities stabilize as we address mission-critical priorities such as fentanyl interdiction, border security, and chemical threat preparedness. With that context, I'd like to turn to our progress on the three strategic focus areas that are propelling us forward and bringing our 908 Devices 2.0 vision to life. Our first focus is to increase adoption of our devices to address global threats to public health and safety.

We equip frontline responders with rapid, reliable chemical identification tools that require minimal training and perform when it matters most. Our aim is to define the benchmark for advanced chemical detection in the field. A clear example is our Explorer device, which is setting the benchmark for advanced chemical detection of over 5,000 gases and vapors. Q3 was another record-setting quarter for Explorer shipments, achieving a 30% quarter-over-quarter increase in placements. We see Explorer as a strong supporter of our 2026 growth goals as it fills a critical gap in the market for hazardous material response. Firefighters and hazmat response teams have long used a photoionization detector, or PID, to detect the presence of a subset of gases and vapors. Knowing a gas is present is helpful but limited. Teams must then rely on their experience and educated guesswork to coordinate a response. Explorer changes the game.

With Explorer, first responders can not only detect presence, but more importantly, identify and quantify thousands of unknown gases in seconds, informing decision-making and accelerating action. After encountering unknown gases in several recent incidents, the Contra Costa County hazmat team in California purchased four Explorer devices, helping to improve their on-scene response. Facing similar situations, the Kansas State Fire Marshal's Office purchased three Explorer devices, and the U.S. Marine Corps CBRE installation and protection program purchased 17 Explorer devices in the third quarter for potential hazmat incidents and military installations. While a majority of Explorer shipments in Q3 were in the U.S., the need is global. We are seeing early traction internationally in countries such as Italy, Finland, Poland, Taiwan, Korea, and Azerbaijan.

We are excited to see the continued growth of this game-changing device as the hazmat teams around the world modernize their toolkit with advanced chemical detection and identification. Civilian hazmat response and military submarine defense missions are distinct but closely related, and our portfolio is purpose-built to serve both markets. As the future of incident response shifts towards autonomous ground robots and unmanned aerial system drones, we are extending our analytical platforms to operate on these emerging frontline technologies. To that end, we are collaborating with multiple partners to demonstrate capability, including most recently the Thales Group, a global leader in aerospace, defense, and security, on a next-generation unmanned ground vehicle UGV integration to enhance mission safety and improve situational awareness for operators in the field.

As we build momentum with emerging autonomous defense tech integrations, we continue to advance key initiatives with our established partners, including our collaboration with Smiths Detection on DoD's AVCAD program. We completed low-rate initial production in late 2024, delivering over 100 component sets to support system builds and government testing in 2025. The program is now concluding a final field validation event, which, if successful, is expected to trigger an RFP for a next phase. While timelines have become affected by program changes and the government shutdown, we continue to expect clarity on next steps by year-end. We stand ready to support Smiths Detection in the next phase of this important national defense effort. Our second focus area is advancing our next-gen analytical tools portfolio. At our core, we are an innovation-driven analytical instrumentation company. We're committed to the relentless pursuit of higher performance, breakthrough capabilities, and greater simplicity.

In July, we announced the launch of VipIR, our handheld chemical analyzer that uniquely combines FTIR and Raman spectroscopy into a single, seamless workflow powered by our smart spectral processing technology. During the quarter, we shipped one of our first VipIR units to government intelligence agencies in Southeast Asia. They selected VipIR to modernize their counter-narcotic and counter-terrorism capabilities, upgrading from a competitor product. This initial unit serves as a pilot and has the potential to extend into a broader deployment across the country, establishing a new enterprise account. We also shipped several purchased VipIR units during the quarter to our channel partners, feeding awareness and engagement in the field. Last month, I attended our EMEA channel partner summit, where we had gathered more than 25 partners from across the region to review our latest innovations and compare notes on pipeline opportunities.

The enthusiasm for VipIR was unmistakable, fueled by a clear shift in NATO preparedness and increased spending among nations along the alliance's eastern flank. We are encouraged that VipIR, like Explorer, will become a ramping contributor through 2026 and a key beneficiary of recent funding improvements. One of VipIR's differentiated capabilities garnering interest is its integration with our Team Leader software. Using VipIR's built-in cellular connectivity, or Wi-Fi, first responders can upload sample data on unknown solids and liquids in real time. Using the Team Leader app, incident command and leaders outside the hot zone can view this data to make rapid, informed decisions on the response based on a clear understanding of the chemical threat. Team Leader is currently integrated with all of our FTIR devices and is on the roadmap for our mass spec devices.

We already have more than 700 users on the Team Leader platform, and over the next year, we plan to add additional compelling functionality. Finally, our third focus area is strengthening our financial position and accelerating profitability. Under our 908 Devices 2.0 transformation, we set an ambitious target to achieve positive adjusted EBITDA by Q4 of this year, a goal we've been laser-focused on. As I covered at the outset, and as Joe will detail shortly, we're making meaningful progress toward that target. Our facility consolidation and operational scale-up in Danbury, Connecticut, are delivering improved productivity and cost structure. For example, our gross margin increased quarter over quarter and reached 58% on an adjusted basis, reflecting the first benefits of those efforts. Over the long term, we expect further margin uplift as we insource precision machining following our acquisition of the assets of KAF Manufacturing.

Importantly, our products continue to command premium pricing due to their innovation and market differentiation, a trend we expect to maintain. As we build more value in our Team Leader offering, we intend for it to become an incremental contributor to recurring revenue. Further, we concluded the quarter with approximately $112 million in cash and marketable securities with no debt, providing a strong financial position and optionality as we scale. I'll now hand it over to Joe to review our third quarter financial performance.

Joe Griffith (CFO)

Thanks, Kevin. As a result of the sale of our desktop portfolio in the first quarter, the financials we are reporting today are for continuing operations only. All current and historical activity related to our desktops, including the gain on sale, are captured in a single discontinued operations line in our financial statements.

Total revenue was $14 million for the third quarter 2025, down 4% from $14.5 million in the prior year period, primarily driven by a smaller number of multi-unit MX908 device orders to U.S. federal and defense customers, offset by continued momentum in our state and local end users. Handheld product and service revenue was $13.2 million for the third quarter 2025, down 5% from $13.9 million for the third quarter 2024. We shipped 176 devices in the third quarter compared to 178 devices shipped in the third quarter of 2024, bringing our install base to 3,512. As a reminder, there were approximately 700 FTIR devices placed prior to our acquisition of Red Wave. Including these units, our product install base was greater than 4,200 exiting the third quarter. As expected, program product and service revenue was not material in either the third quarter of 2025 or in 2024.

We are not assuming any meaningful revenue contribution from the AVCAD program in 2025, as we completed the initial low-rate production deliveries in Q3 2024 and are preparing for the next phase and potential ramp in 2026. OEM and funded partnership revenue was $0.8 million for the third quarter 2025, compared to $0.5 million in the prior year period. Revenue growth was led by pharma and industrial QA/QC customers, with an additional lift from component sales tied to our new precision machining capabilities from the KAF asset acquisition. Recurring revenue, which consists of consumables, accessories, and service revenue, represented 35% of total revenues this quarter and was $4.8 million, a 10% increase over the prior year period. Looking ahead, we expect recurring revenue to be approximately 1/3 of total revenue for the full year.

This factors in anticipated higher device placements in the fourth quarter, which naturally brings down our percent recurring, but also a funding-related pause in service coverage by a U.S. defense customer, resulting in a quarterly headwind of approximately $500,000 beginning in the fourth quarter. Gross profit was $7.4 million for the third quarter of 2025, compared to $7.8 million for the prior year period. Gross margin was 53% for the third quarter 2025, compared to 54% for the prior year period. The modest decrease was driven by a less favorable product mix, with material costs representing a higher percent of revenue, as well as unabsorbed costs from our new precision machining operation during the quarter. As production ramps and we do more in-house, we anticipate a benefit to gross margins in future periods.

Adjusted gross profit was $8.1 million for the third quarter of 2025, compared to $8.5 million for the prior year period. Adjusted gross margin was 58%, a decrease of approximately 60 basis points compared to the prior year period. The slight decrease in adjusted gross margin was driven by the product mix and unabsorbed costs, as mentioned above. Total operating expenses for the third quarter of 2025 were $23.7 million, compared to $32.3 million in the prior year period. The decrease in operating expenses was driven by a $30.5 million goodwill impairment charge in the third quarter of 2024, offset in part by a $22.8 million increase in the fair value of the non-cash contingent consideration. Excluding the impact of these two items, operating expenses for the third quarter decreased year over year by $0.9 million, which is a better proxy for trends in cash-based operating expenses.

Net loss from continuing operations for the third quarter of 2025 was $14.9 million, compared to $23.6 million in the prior year period. This decrease was primarily driven by a $7.7 million decrease in non-cash items and was additionally offset in part by $0.4 million of income from our transition services agreement with Rocklegend. Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter of 2025 was a loss of $1.8 million, compared to a loss of $2.7 million in the prior year period, representing a 32% year-over-year reduction and a 53% quarter-over-quarter reduction. The significant improvement was related to our aggressive cost initiatives, resulting in reduced operating expenses across the board, including facilities, R&D costs, and professional fees. As we enter the fourth quarter, we will continue to leverage these structural changes to drive positive adjusted EBITDA with our scale and projected high teens revenue growth.

We ended the third quarter 2025 with $112.1 million in cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities, with no debt outstanding. We consumed approximately $6.5 million of cash in the third quarter of 2025. The usage was primarily related to working capital and supporting our operations, but also included the $2 million used for our asset acquisition of KAF. As we noted last quarter, the combination of proceeds from the desktop portfolio sale, disciplined cost actions, and durable growth catalysts for 2025 and beyond reinforces our confidence in sustaining a healthy cash balance through our transition to profitability. Looking ahead in 2025, we continue to expect revenue from continuing operations to be in the range of $54-$56 million, representing growth of 13%-17% over full year 2024 revenue from continuing operations. Our guidance range includes the following assumptions.

First, we expect handheld product and service revenue to grow 16%-20% year over year, which equates to a range of $51.5 million-$53.5 million. The $500,000 decrease reflects the funding-related pause in service coverage for a U.S. defense customer, as previously mentioned. Second, we now expect OEM and funded partnerships, including contract revenue, to be approximately $2.5 million. The $500,000 increase is mainly based on third quarter performance and the inclusion of revenues from the KAF acquisition. Third, as stated all year, we are not assuming any meaningful revenue contribution from the U.S. Department of Defense AVCAD program in 2025, as we are preparing for a potential next phase and ramp in 2026. During the quarter, our commercial team made strong progress in advancing large enterprise opportunities across both U.S. and international accounts.

We were also encouraged by the early momentum with VipIR, where we now have secured more than 35 units for Q4 shipment to state, local, and international customers. Securing a few of the larger 20-plus enterprise opportunities in our pipeline is central to achieving our fourth quarter revenue expectations. Our expectations assume that the government resumes normal contracting and operations this quarter. Our operations are nimble, we build to forecast, we have the inventory, and we are able to fulfill most orders as received right through the last days of the year. Moving down the P&L, we continue to expect adjusted gross margins to be in the mid to high 50% range for full year 2025, with further opportunity to expand in 2026.

With an adjusted gross margin of 56% for the nine months ended September 30, 2025, we remain confident in our ability to deliver on our expectations for the full year. We continue to target adjusted EBITDA positivity in Q4 of this year, supported by our Q4 revenue projection, anticipated mix and resulting gross margin, and lower operating costs following our portfolio divestiture and facility consolidation. At this point, I would like to turn the call back to Kevin.

Kevin Knopp (CEO and Co-founder)

Thanks, Joe. To close, Q3 marked another important step forward in our 908 Devices 2.0 transformation. As planned, we are: one, broadening our customer mix and reducing customer concentration; two, expanding our handheld portfolio from one product to now five; and three, increasing the share of recurring revenue. Together, this strategy reduces our dependency on the timing of larger U.S.

Federal and defense awards and creates a steadier cadence of orders across a more distributed customer base. Further, we delivered our best adjusted EBITDA results since our IPO, reflecting disciplined execution, cost control, and continued progress towards profitability. With a solid balance sheet, strong year-to-date revenue growth, and line of sight to achieving positive adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter, we're confident in our trajectory and the foundation we're building for sustained growth in 2026 and beyond. Thank you for your continued interest in 908 Devices. We look forward to updating you on our progress next quarter. With that, let's open it up for questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please raise your hand now.

If you have dialed into today's call, please press star nine on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and star six on your telephone keypad to unmute when it is your turn. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Puneet Souda with Leerink. Please go ahead.

Puneet Souda (Senior Managing Director of Life Science Tools and Diagnostics)

Yeah, hi guys. Thanks for taking my questions. So first one, clarification on the $4 million. You know, I just wanted to make sure you're accounting for that in the full year guide, if you could confirm that. And then if that was to come in later, than expected, then is this going to be the first quarter? Is it going to be a contribution to the first quarter 2026 revenue?

If I could follow up for 2026, are you expecting 20% growth or could this be more than 25% growth year over year in 2026?

Joe Griffith (CFO)

Sure, absolutely, Puneet. I guess let me explain it this way. For our Q4 guidance, it includes the runway business and the larger enterprise orders that total to about 60-ish units, maybe approximately $3 million. You know, we have the pipeline of those large enterprise opportunities for Q4 spanning the U.S. federal, U.S. defense, and international accounts. We do have greater than $3 million of high-probability enterprise opportunities from those U.S. federal and defense customers that are held up waiting for the U.S. government to get back to business. Additionally, we also have about $1 million of international orders that require export licenses. Applications are moving, but they're slower than normal and require an expedite request with the shutdown.

Kevin Knopp (CEO and Co-founder)

You know, to deliver on our guidance, we are assuming the government returns to normalize operations in the quarter, and we can land and ship these before year-end. You know, we build to forecast, we have the inventory, and we can ship right up through the end of the day, the last days of the year. We do have additional sizable enterprise opportunities for international customers progressing towards closure. Some require export license and some do not. Further, we have seen our state and local channel overperform our expectations all year, and we're very pleased with the VipIR traction to date, with now more than 35 units in hand for Q4 shipment, representing about 15% of our Q4.

$4 million revenue in our guidance, it could be impacted if the government has not returned to normal by year-end, but we will be looking to leverage other opportunities in our pipeline to mitigate. Importantly, this is a timing thing. These opportunities do not go away and carry over, whether in Q1 or early in 2026. Another way, I guess, to read this is that if the government was fully back to work and operating normally, you'd probably be hearing increased confidence to the high end or even higher in today's call.

Puneet Souda (Senior Managing Director of Life Science Tools and Diagnostics)

Got it. That's very helpful, Joe. Then on the AVCAD program and the Coast Guard, I mean, Coast Guard order, could you update us? How should we think about AVCAD in 2026? Is this more first half versus second half?

And then on the Coast Guard order of 2023, MX908, and correct me if I'm wrong on that. When do you expect that to be in the revenue? Thank you.

Joe Griffith (CFO)

Yeah, the Coast Guard was in our shipments for Q3, so it was exciting to get that key win.

Kevin Knopp (CEO and Co-founder)

Yeah, and on the AVCAD side, the program recently completed a final field validation event. The government's currently working through those results, and we continue to expect clarity on the next steps before the end of the year. As you know, we engage the government directly for our commercial products, but for AVCAD, we're partnered with Smiths Detection. They're the prime or the sub, so they manage that program. We are expecting some feedback in the coming months, and we'll certainly keep all updated there. Yes, it's continued to move forward.

Timing is harder to control, especially given the shutdown dynamics here. But we have been engaged with AVCAD over five years, and we do anticipate it to be a meaningful growth driver and to scale up and to have a nice runway for us over potentially a five to seven-year horizon. As we mentioned before on AVCAD, Smiths is working through kind of a handful of small incremental improvements, and that was the goal to demonstrate in this field test, and we'll be looking for that validation that has occurred. The scientist in me, I remain very encouraged about where we're at because the detection side of it is really some impressive performance levels that had to be hit, and we're doing that. With the new administration, you know, certainly there's changes in the contracting. Could there be an acceleration? Could there be a delay?

Probably equally are possible on that. At the moment, I think we've got good momentum, and they're coming up to a decision point that we should get those next steps clarity. From a 2026,

Joe Griffith (CFO)

yeah, I think AVCAD creates, it's one of the levers or catalysts for growth. There's the opportunity, as we learned at the end of the year, that that can contribute to that 20% product growth that we'll continue to evaluate and talk to as we get into March.

Puneet Souda (Senior Managing Director of Life Science Tools and Diagnostics)

Got it. Okay, helpful, guys. Thank you.

Joe Griffith (CFO)

You're welcome.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Larue with William Blair. Please go ahead. Matt, a reminder to please unmute yourself by clicking the unmute button in the bottom left corner.

Matt Larue (Analyst)

Okay, great. Can you hear me okay?

Joe Griffith (CFO)

Yes, we can hear you, Matt.

Matt Larue (Analyst)

Okay, fair enough.

Joe, I just wanted to ask on adjusted EBITDA break-even this quarter, obviously given the government shutdown and AVCAD, you know, some moving parts that are big in size in terms of the top line. Just the sensitivities around hitting that number and maybe more importantly, as you think about taking through the P&L performance into 2026, do you think once you hit the adjusted EBITDA break-even, that you'll sort of remain at or above that level or, you know, given some of the first step for second half spend and cash dynamics, could you sort of have a, you know, two steps forward, one step back kind of, you know, path from here?

Joe Griffith (CFO)

Got it.

Yeah, from a sensitivity perspective, you know, the $4 million of potential risk, it would be impactful, you know, if we do not land the $3 million or so in high-probability orders anticipated from those federal and defense customers and maybe the $1 million that need the export licenses. Then unless we can partially offset and get to the low end of our revenue range, it will be a challenge. You know, it is hard to offset the gross margin loss, and we need to be at the low end really from the range to achieve our target. We will look for ways to minimize the revenue risks. We do need to scale to get to our Q4 adjusted EBITDA positivity goal.

So, I mean, just to reiterate a bit, you know, we are holding our revenue guidance steady in our base case, which is the $54-$56 million for the year. And a minimum will need to be at that low end. Easier if Q4 revenues are near the midpoint of that range or even the higher, but at least at the minimum, the adjusted gross margins in the mid to high 50% that we've been talking about. And on the Q4 OpEx, excluding non-cash, stock comp, and intangibles in the, call it, $11 million range, not far off from where we were in Q3, really benefiting from the impact of the facility transition and other cost savings we've done. As you might expect, you know, of those factors driving positive adjusted EBITDA in Q4, revenues are the most critical and crucial.

As we think about '26 and adjusted EBITDA, you know, be working towards getting there on a full year adjusted EBITDA, you know, there is seasonality. From a revenue perspective, I would expect it to flip back to negative earlier in the year if we're not at the same scale as Q4. I think our history has shown that there is, you know, a ramp in the back half typically on the adjusted EBITDA.

Matt Larue (Analyst)

Okay, great. Kevin, you know, one of the three growth catalysts for next year is the NextGen MX.

And, you know, just as you now get closer to that replacement cycle getting going, just kind of curious updated thoughts on that opportunity and to the extent you've shared any of the new features or form factor with customers, you know, feedback and how that's kind of leading to your excitement for the product launch.

Kevin Knopp (CEO and Co-founder)

Yeah, sure thing. You're absolutely right. Innovation, new products is one of our three growth catalysts. And our Explorer product is the second newest product. And VipIR, I hope you're hearing on our call today, we're very pleased with that recent launch. And that's a new product for us that we think is going to be a compelling contributor here going forward in 2026 and beyond. And you're right, NextGen MX as well, right?

We've got over 3,000 of those out in the world of our first generation or the really greenfield placements and us being able to continue that, but also have an upgrade opportunity. We think it will be meaningful over time. Nothing really new to report today on that front. I would say that we remain on track. Teams working on that program aggressively and very encouraging, I would say, improvements there. You know, again, we've got a very disruptive product in terms of no direct competition with our current MX. We'll work through the timings of that launch, but we still expect it in 2026. Again, Explorer and VipIR have really been doing well and was part of the thesis of the Red Wave acquisition, of course. We're super excited for those contributions as well.

Matt Larue (Analyst)

All right, thank you.

Operator (participant)

Your next question comes from the line of Brendan Smith with TD Cowen. Brendan, a reminder to press star six on your telephone keypad in order to unmute.

Brendan Smith (Director of Life Science Tools and Diagnostics and Biotech Analyst)

Great, thanks for taking the questions, guys. Can you hear me okay?

Joe Griffith (CFO)

Yep. Hello. I can hear you.

Brendan Smith (Director of Life Science Tools and Diagnostics and Biotech Analyst)

Okay. So yeah, maybe just putting the shutdown aside just for the time being, I wanted to ask a little bit more about, and I fully appreciate it's still early, but just where you're seeing and expecting to see kind of the most interest in VipIR so far and maybe how we should think about the launch ramp of VipIR relative to kind of your expected growth trajectory for the earlier gen devices.

Maybe just if you would expect any potential cannibalization just of the earlier-gen growth trajectory as VipIR gets its legs or if you're really expecting, you know, some of the target customers could continue to persist for both independently.

Kevin Knopp (CEO and Co-founder)

Yeah, no, great question. I think VipIR, we're really, really pleased with that. Last quarter we highlighted that we expected VipIR to be a small contributor in Q4 and then a rising contributor in 2026. In the third quarter, we did ship that first VipIR. Good feedback on that. Another handful or so that went out for demo units to our partners that are working to then evangelize that product. Really excited about all of the, all about what we're hearing there and that Team Leader connection. As we reported today, there's a meaningful amount, 35 or so, that are on deck for Q4 shipment.

I think the takeaway is that the engagement is showing great early signs and that we do see VipIR playing a good role in supporting our growth goals for 2026. From a cannibalization, it really does not impact our MX. It is a complementary product. It is also complementary in use case with our other products on the FTIR side. You know, we think this is just great to have in the toolbox. Right now it seems to be being validated that way. We remain excited about it.

Brendan Smith (Director of Life Science Tools and Diagnostics and Biotech Analyst)

Okay, great, thanks. Maybe on Team Leader that you mentioned, maybe just what are kind of the next steps there in development and thoughts on maybe a broader rollout as that gets, you know, integrated a little bit more.

Just maybe help us understand a little bit more how you're thinking about potentially monetizing that aspect of the system moving forward and maybe when that could start to factor in.

Kevin Knopp (CEO and Co-founder)

Yeah, absolutely. Team Leader is an application software that connects to all of our FTIR devices and then soon our Mass Spec device. It allows people remotely to see what's going on with the unit, location information. We're starting to add more and more what we think is compelling features in the fleet management perspective so you can understand where each of the devices sits, software, training, things of that nature. As we do that and that roadmap, we think of these features as pretty compelling. Yes, the value of that and its contribution we expect to be incremental to our recurring revenue.

You may know some large caps in the gas detection space and saw some more medium cap device out there in the gas detection space. Companies do see that working well for them in other segments of the gas detection market. I think it's early days here, but we see a growing contribution as we go over time with that product. Yep.

Brendan Smith (Director of Life Science Tools and Diagnostics and Biotech Analyst)

Great, thank you.

Operator (participant)

A reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please raise your hand now. If you have dialed into today's call, please press star 9 to raise your hand and star six to unmute. Our next question comes from the line of Dan Arias with Stifel. Please go ahead.

Dan Arias (Managing Director of Life Sciences and Diagnostics)

Hey, good morning, guys. Thank you.

Kevin or Joe, anything that you guys would consider a risk when it comes to production capabilities or supply chain, et cetera, on full AVCAD fulfillment? The only reason I ask is because you have a bigger portfolio now, more balls in the air. Just sort of curious if there's anything that you think is worth calling out when it comes to scale-up capabilities that's unique or just, you know, sort of requires some particular attention.

Kevin Knopp (CEO and Co-founder)

Oh, yeah, great question. As you know, we've done a ton of work over the first half and in the third quarter in moving our production and having it up and running for the third quarter completely in Danbury, Connecticut. That includes our MX908, where those core components and subsystems are in common with many of the elements of the AVCAD product.

We feel good about it that we've got a nice base there. We feel good about it that we can handle some of the machining requirements from where we're set to build our pumps at scale from both the KAF precision machining asset acquisition and, importantly, the machining capabilities that we have here in the Boston area. Nothing of note there. I think we really stand ready. These programs take time. You do get visibility into revenue ramps or unit volume ramps. I would expect that as we get clarity, as we anticipate over the last few months here, a couple months of the year, that will help us prepare for what their intended volumes and shipment and plan is. Yep. Okay. No, I don't expect any supply chain problems there on that for rampability.

Dan Arias (Managing Director of Life Sciences and Diagnostics)

Yeah, great to hear. Okay.

And then, Joe, maybe just to follow up on the shutdown dynamics. If we do move past the shutdown here and you get the confidence in Q4 revenue recognition that you mentioned, does it stand to reason that the first half of 2026 revenues that might be dependent on business development activity that should be taking place now, is that still sounding good or is there some residual timing risk when you just think about the first quarter or the second quarter of the calendar year? I mean, I know we have time to lay out next year. Right. Just trying to make sure that we sort of fully round out the impact of the government stuff here.

Joe Griffith (CFO)

Yeah, in many ways with the shutdown, our sales team is kind of cranking along business as usual. Most of them are still around. It's a lot of the contracting folks.

Continue to work the pipeline in short term and longer term opportunities across the enterprise portfolio. I do see this as a timing issue and a bit of a pause.

Kevin Knopp (CEO and Co-founder)

Yeah, and I think I would just add to that. I mean, Dan, it is unprecedented times there. Certainly, we're encouraged by the news over the weekend of government progress on that. We tried to paint it as a possibility here on the impacts that we're continuously gauging. I would clarify that it's probably not a black and white situation. As we called out, you kind of have greater than $3 million of these high-probability enterprise orders in the U.S. fed defense customer bucket that are held up, but each have a shade of gray. You know, some of these can move efficiently in the continuing resolution.

Some of these could move and are even when it's completely shut down. There are other dynamics that we're always trying to get on top of. For instance, some of our opportunities use O&M money, but if the government is shut down, some of that can be redirected temporarily to be used to keep the lights on in other areas. All of these types of issues. As we work through each, it's not a black and white situation. Yeah, certainly feel good about the pipeline and they would likely manifest itself if that were to happen. The ones that slip would be into 2026. As Joe pointed out, I mean, really the good news is that we build vanilla boxes, right? We're building COTS products. We build to forecast. We have the inventory of them based upon that.

We can deliver all the way up through the last days of the year. It is really about the government returning to normal operations. As Joe said, we are actively engaged with customers. Many of our customers are still there, but maybe their contracting colleagues are missing or there is another priority during this more limited resource time. Yeah, we remain encouraged about the future and how we are aligned to the appropriations that we anticipate here, hopefully in days for some of the branches that we are hearing about.

Dan Arias (Managing Director of Life Sciences and Diagnostics)

Yep, fingers crossed. Okay, thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Kevin Knopp for closing remarks.

Kevin Knopp (CEO and Co-founder)

Yes, thank you very much. Thank you for joining our Q3 call. We appreciate your interest in 908 Devices. Thank you. Have a great day.

Operator (participant)

This concludes today's call.

Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect.