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Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 revenue was $0.438B (+83% YoY) with GAAP diluted EPS of $(0.13) and non-GAAP adjusted diluted EPS of $0.08; results modestly exceeded internal color on stronger China volumes and lower OpEx, and management reaffirmed FY25 guidance amid tariff uncertainty .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus, MBLY delivered a slight top-line and EPS beat: Revenue $438M vs $435.4M*, adjusted EPS $0.08 vs $0.0755*; GAAP margins improved sharply YoY due to normalization after last year’s Tier-1 inventory drawdown [functions.GetEstimates].
  • Business development was robust: first Surround ADAS win at Volkswagen Group, an ADAS win with a European OEM not served since 2016, cloud-enhanced ADAS with a Korean OEM, and an imminent Imaging Radar award; robotaxi ecosystem progressed with Lyft/Marubeni (Dallas) and VW–Uber plans for Los Angeles .
  • Near-term outlook: Q2 revenue expected to grow ~7% YoY with EyeQ units of ~8.7–9.3M; management sees no direct tariff P&L impact but acknowledges potential production/demand risk; FY25 guide maintained with built-in conservatism .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Strong top-line and non-GAAP profitability recovery vs. last year’s trough; adjusted operating margin swung to +13% (from -27% YoY) on better mix and lower OpEx as % of revenue .
  • Strategic wins: first Surround ADAS design win at Volkswagen Group; re-engagement with a European OEM after ~8 years; cloud-enhanced ADAS program with a Korean OEM; Imaging Radar award “imminent” with a European OEM .
  • Management tone: “Q1 was one of the largest quarters on record in terms of projected future volumes from design wins… notable achievements were… first Surround ADAS design win with Volkswagen Group… and acceleration for our Mobileye Drive robotaxi solution.” (CEO) .

What Went Wrong

  • GAAP metrics remain negative given amortization and SBC: GAAP operating margin (-27%) and GAAP EPS $(0.13) despite improved YoY comparisons .
  • Gross margin sustained at 47% GAAP (down from 49% in Q4), with mix and amortization on a lower base QoQ; China mix can also pressure EyeQ ASPs and adjusted gross margin upside .
  • Advanced product award timing remains slower than desired; OEM decision-making elongated amid macro/tariff volatility, though management sees continued progress and added late-quarter prospects .

Financial Results

Headline P&L vs prior quarters

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$486 $490 $438
GAAP Diluted EPS$(3.35) $(0.09) $(0.13)
Adjusted Diluted EPS (Non-GAAP)$0.10 $0.13 $0.08
GAAP Gross Margin %49% 49% 47%
Adjusted Gross Margin %68% 69% 69%
GAAP Operating Margin %(578)% (goodwill) (18)% (27)%
Adjusted Operating Margin %16% 21% 13%

KPI detail (systems and ASP)

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
EyeQ + SuperVision Revenue ($USD Millions)$457 $464 $415
Systems Shipped (Millions)9.3 8.5 8.5
Average System Price ($)$50.0 $49.0 $49.0

Cash flow and balance sheet highlights

  • Operating cash flow in Q1 2025: $109M; capex $14M .
  • Cash & equivalents: $1.512B at March 29, 2025; inventories fell to $364M (from $415M at year-end) .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($USD M)FY 2025$1,690 – $1,810 $1,690 – $1,810 Maintained
Operating Loss (GAAP, $USD M)FY 2025$(574) – $(489) $(574) – $(489) Maintained
Adjusted Operating Income (Non-GAAP, $USD M)FY 2025$175 – $260 $175 – $260 Maintained
Q2 Revenue YoYQ2 2025—~+7% YoY vs Q2’24 New quarterly color
EyeQ Units (M)Q2 2025—~8.7 – 9.3 New quarterly color
Gross Margin (GAAP)Q2 2025—At or slightly below Q1 level New quarterly color
Adjusted OpEx growthFY 2025—~+7% YoY vs $926M 2024 New annual color
Adjusted Gross MarginFY 2025—~+100 bps vs 2024 Clarified

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3’24 and Q4’24)Current Period (Q1’25)Trend
AI/Tech stack, EyeQ6 progressCapital-light EyeQ6 High on track; compound AI approach detailed; imaging radar B-samples with strong performance .Continued confidence in EyeQ6-based stack; imminent Imaging Radar award; quotes on better-than-human thresholds and data/REM evolution .Improving engagement/validation
Supply chain/inventoryQ3: inventory normalized; sequential revenue +11% as evidence .Q1: orders stable since Feb; no inventory build signal; OCF solid .Stable/Improving
Tariffs/macroQ3: macro headwinds noted; 2025 outlook cautious .No direct tariff P&L impact expected; exposure via production/demand; S&P/IHS implies ~2% global production deterioration; FY guide embeds conservatism .Risk elevated but contained
Product performance (ADAS)Q3: ADAS wins across top customers; ASP pressure from mix; Lidar program wind-down .First Surround ADAS win (VW Group); EyeQ6 Lite momentum; re-entry win at European OEM; cloud-enhanced ADAS (Korea) .Positive inflection in wins
Regional trends (China)Q3: China shipments ~20% of rev; SuperVision volatility; EyeQ to local OEMs down .Demand above initial guide; 20–30% share stable; China volumes a margin headwind but supportive for units .Stabilizing at higher run-rate
Regulatory/legalEnd-of-decade ADAS testing protocols seen as tailwind for multi-sensor ADAS .Surround ADAS needed to meet future safety standards; L3 eyes-off targeted end-2027 at several OEMs .Tailwind building
R&D execution/OpExQ3: Hold OpEx ~Q3 run-rate in 2025 after Lidar wind-down .OpEx growth ~7% YoY in 2025; efficiencies/timing drove Q1 underspend vs plan .Controlled

Management Commentary

  • “We continue to expect to deliver revenue and profitability within the guidance range… our original outlook was designed to account for some amount of macro deterioration in 2025.” – Prof. Amnon Shashua, CEO .
  • “Q1 was one of the largest quarters on record in terms of projected future volumes from design wins… first Surround ADAS design win with Volkswagen Group… acceleration for our Mobileye Drive robotaxi solution.” – CEO .
  • “Our Q1 results slightly exceeded the color… primarily due to modestly higher volume from Chinese OEMs and lower-than-expected operating expenses.” – CFO Moran Rojansky .
  • “We are fortunate that our supply chain is very simple… we should experience no direct P&L impact from tariff payments.” – CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Robotaxi monetization: Upfront per-vehicle Mobileye Drive system plus recurring license fee tied to utilization; VW manufactures, Uber/Lyft provide demand; meaningful revenue contribution expected from 2027 onward .
  • 2H caution and guidance conservatism: Management sees no deterioration in schedules, but won’t “get ahead” given macro/tariff risk; FY guide already conservative .
  • Surround ADAS vs SuperVision: Surround ADAS seen as “new ADAS” driven by regulations; SuperVision and Chauffeur remain strategic, with growing interest in L3 eyes-off (2027–2028 SOP) .
  • China: Demand better than planned; MBLY share ~20–30% stable; Q1 and Q2 orders above initial assumptions .
  • Imaging Radar and advanced awards: First Imaging Radar design win in Q2 seen (eyes-off enabler); an additional award “imminent” in Q1 commentary .

Estimates Context

MetricQ1 2025 ConsensusQ1 2025 Actual
Revenue ($USD Millions)$435.4*$438
Primary EPS ($)$0.0755*$0.08
  • Both revenue and adjusted EPS modestly beat consensus, suggesting Street models may need to reflect stronger early-2025 volumes (incl. China) and the Q2 unit guide (8.7–9.3M) alongside reaffirmed FY25 ranges .
  • Values marked with an asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Reaffirmed FY25 guide with slight Q1 beats and Q2 revenue +~7% YoY color underpin a stabilizing core ADAS run-rate; watch for tariff-driven production swings, but MBLY sees no direct tariff P&L hit .
  • Surround ADAS is emerging as the next mass-market content driver (first win at VW Group), while L3 eyes-off interest into 2027–28 provides medium-term ASP and revenue optionality .
  • China is a double-edged sword: higher units supporting near-term revenue vs. modest ASP/margin headwind; still incrementally positive given Q1/Q2 demand outperformance .
  • Robotaxi optionality is firming with Lyft/Marubeni (Dallas) and VW–Uber (Los Angeles); economic model blends upfront hardware + recurring software—material P&L impact expected from 2027 .
  • Adjusted GM held ~69% (Q4→Q1), and OCF remains strong; operating leverage should improve as volumes recover and OpEx growth remains disciplined (~7% YoY) .
  • Near-term trading: catalyst path includes additional design-win disclosures (Surround ADAS/L3), Imaging Radar award formalization, and tariff-policy clarity; any Q2 order updates vs. 8.7–9.3M units will be stock-moving .

Additional Notes

  • Other press releases in Q1 2025: none beyond the 8-K earnings release located in the document system for Mar–May 2025 [functions.ListDocuments].
  • Reconciling non-GAAP: Adjustments primarily amortization of acquired intangibles ($111M in Q1) and SBC ($65M), with tax effects; see reconciliations in the press release .
S&P Global disclaimer: Consensus estimate values marked with an asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.