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Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 was a solid beat: revenue $506M, up 15% YoY, and Adjusted EPS $0.13; management raised FY25 revenue guidance by ~4% at the midpoint to $1.765B–$1.885B and lifted Adjusted Operating Income to $210M–$286M .
  • Strength was broad-based (EyeQ volumes +28% YoY), with inventory alignment at customers and better-than-expected SuperVision production; margins were stable on an adjusted basis and GAAP operating loss improved to -15% margin .
  • Outlook catalyst: increasing traction across Surround ADAS, SuperVision, Chauffeur, and Drive; VW-Uber robotaxi deployment in Los Angeles and Lyft/Marubeni progress support a 2026 commercial launch and 2027 growth inflection .
  • Risks/headwinds: mix pressure from China EyeQ and SuperVision reduces gross margin vs corporate average; EBITDA remained negative vs positive Street expectations, and management maintained caution for Q4 visibility amid tariff uncertainty .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Broad-based demand and operational leverage: 15% YoY revenue growth and adjusted operating margin rose to 21% with strong cash generation ($322M H1 operating cash flow) .
  • Program momentum and technology milestones: “EyeQ6 Lite ramp-up has been seamless” and advanced programs with VW progressing toward eyes-off autonomy; “we are on-track to begin fully driverless deployments in the US in 2026” .
  • Strategic ecosystem progress: VW announced a partnership with Uber for LA robotaxis; Lyft/Marubeni ecosystem completion advancing; first imaging radar design win accelerates L3 prospects .

Specific quotes:

  • “Q2 was a good display of the strong operating leverage created by our business model.” — Prof. Amnon Shashua .
  • “We are on-track to begin fully driverless deployments in the US in 2026.” — Press release .
  • “SuperVision volume was… stronger than expected… production of the vehicles we are on is running better than expected year to date.” — Dan Galves .

What Went Wrong

  • Mix headwinds to gross margin: “SuperVision… was a higher percentage of revenue in Q2 versus Q1, causing a bit of a gross margin reduction,” and China EyeQ mix carries margins below corporate average .
  • GAAP profitability still negative: GAAP net loss of $(67)M and GAAP operating margin -15% despite YoY improvement .
  • Street EBITDA miss: EBITDA printed negative vs positive consensus; management maintained caution on Q4 visibility given tariffs and seasonality .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$490 $438 $506
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$(0.09) $(0.13) $(0.08)
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$0.13 $0.08 $0.13
Gross Margin (%)49% 47% 50%
Adjusted Gross Margin (%)69% 69% 69%
GAAP Operating Margin (%)-18% -27% -15%
Adjusted Operating Margin (%)21% 13% 21%
GAAP Net Income ($USD Millions)$(71) $(102) $(67)
Adjusted Net Income ($USD Millions)$107 $63 $102

KPIs (Systems and ASP)

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
EyeQ + SuperVision Revenue ($USD Millions)$464 $415 $481
Systems Shipped (Millions)9.3 8.5 9.7
Average System Price ($)$50.0 $49.0 $49.7

Performance vs Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global)

MetricQ4 2024 ConsensusQ4 2024 ActualQ1 2025 ConsensusQ1 2025 ActualQ2 2025 ConsensusQ2 2025 Actual
Revenue ($USD Millions)$478.24M*$490 $435.39M*$438 $495.91M*$506
Primary EPS ($)$0.1104*$0.13 $0.07548*$0.08 $0.10703*$0.13
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$98.43M*$(48.4) [GetEstimates]*$73.23M*$(82.0) [GetEstimates]*$106.39M*$(39.0) [GetEstimates]*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2025$1,690–$1,810 $1,765–$1,885 Raised
GAAP Operating Loss ($USD Millions)FY 2025$(574)–$(489) $(512)–$(436) Lower loss
Amortization of Acquired Intangibles ($USD Millions)FY 2025$443 $443 Maintained
Share-based Compensation ($USD Millions)FY 2025$306 $279 Lowered
Adjusted Operating Income ($USD Millions)FY 2025$175–$260 $210–$286 Raised
Q3 2025 EyeQ Units (Millions)Q3 2025N/A8.7–9.3 (management outlook) New disclosure

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024, Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Surround ADASRFQ-stage pipeline: 25M future units; first Surround ADAS win with VW Group Growing OEM demand shifting from single-camera to multi-camera; standardization and ECU consolidation benefits Accelerating
SuperVisionDecision timing slower than expected; existing vehicles support 2026 expectations Volumes better than expected; raised 2025 outlook to ~40k units midpoint Improving
Chauffeur (L3 eyes-off)Planning and segmentation expanding; Audi SOP 2027 Multiple new OEM prospects; imaging radar design win enabling highway L3 Accelerating
Drive (Robotaxi)Acceleration of MaaS; Lyft/Marubeni announced; preparation for 2026 VW-Uber LA deployment; MTBF tracking to targets; driver removal in 2026; scale via OEM integration Accelerating
China / Inventory2024 inventory digestion; alignment improving China EyeQ volumes above plan H1; inventory well-aligned; ~1.5M H1 units vs ~1M expected Stabilizing
Tariffs/Macro2025 guidance contemplated tariffs Impact limited thus far; cautious stance retained for Q4 Manageable risk
Margins/MixAdjusted gross margin ~69% consistent; mix effects noted SuperVision and China mix slightly below corporate margin; adjusted margins stable Stable on adjusted basis
Cash/CapEx2024 OCF $400M; CapEx $81M H1 OCF $322M; CapEx $28M; working capital discipline Strong cash generation

Management Commentary

  • “Our core ADAS business truly illustrates that Mobileye is an execution machine… EyeQ6 Lite… ramp-up… seamless” .
  • “Mobileye… is in a very good position to scale rapidly once we start commercial deployment in 2026.” .
  • “We expect to reach our KPI goals by the end of 2025… then remove the driver in 2026. It is all on track.” .
  • “SuperVision activity remains robust… lack of competitive pressure is enabling OEMs to continue to take their time.” .
  • “Our updated guidance… reflects a 4% increase in expected Revenue… and an increase in Adjusted Operating Income… of 14%.” .

Q&A Highlights

  • SuperVision outlook doubled: management raised 2025 SuperVision units to ~40k midpoint, citing Zeekr export markets and Polestar 4 production performance .
  • China EyeQ run-rate: H1 China units ~1.5M vs ~1M expected; overall customer inventory aligned with demand .
  • Imaging radar strategy: first design win with a reputable OEM; strategic sensor bundled with Chauffeur/Drive rather than standalone .
  • Robotaxi business model: revenue per system plus recurring per-mile revenue; partnerships with VW/MOIA, Uber, Lyft; teleoperations designed to scale (one operator to “X” vehicles) .
  • OpEx trajectory: after increases in 2023–2024, OpEx expected to be “more or less flattish” near term despite program ramps .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 beats vs consensus: revenue $506M vs $495.9M* and Primary EPS $0.13 vs $0.107*; EBITDA missed (actual negative vs $106.4M*), reflecting GAAP losses and mix headwinds [GetEstimates]*.
  • FY25 consensus revenue ~$1.876B* sits within the raised company range ($1.765B–$1.885B); updated unit outlooks (EyeQ 33.5–35.5M; SuperVision ~40k) support upward estimate revisions on AOI .
  • Near-term modeling: management guided Q3 EyeQ 8.7–9.3M and gross margin slightly below Q2, with seasonally higher OpEx; caution on Q4 remains due to typical visibility and tariff uncertainty .

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • The quarter demonstrated operating leverage: adjusted margin and cash generation remained strong; guidance raise is a clear positive catalyst .
  • Mix dynamics matter: higher SuperVision and China EyeQ exposure can modestly pressure gross margin vs corporate average; monitor trajectory into H2 .
  • 2026–2027 narrative is firming: eyes-off Chauffeur and Drive timelines (driver removal in 2026; revenue contribution in 2027), plus VW-Uber and Lyft/Marubeni ecosystems, underpin mid-term growth inflection .
  • SuperVision outlook reset higher (~40k units): signals better production execution on existing programs and potential for additional ramps; constructive for 2026 setup .
  • Watch Q4 caution and tariff backdrop: management remains conservative beyond near term despite current limited impact; estimate dispersion may remain elevated .
  • Strategic sensor moat: imaging radar win validates Mobileye’s bundle differentiation for highway L3 and supports OEM interest in scalable eyes-off solutions .
  • Capital and ownership: July secondary by Intel at $16.50/share and Mobileye’s $100M repurchase reduce overhang risk while preserving cash; track potential future Intel actions and any strategic investments with partners .

Appendix: Additional Context

  • Secondary offering details (Intel selling 50M shares; Mobileye repurchasing ~6.23M) priced on July 10, 2025; conversion of additional Class B to Class A shares planned by Intel, with Intel retaining >80% ownership at the time of the call .

Notes:

  • All company-reported figures are cited to SEC 8-Ks and the Q2 2025 press release and call.
  • Values with asterisk are consensus estimates retrieved from S&P Global.*