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Mobileye Global Inc. (MBLY)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 revenue declined 23% year over year to $490 million; GAAP diluted EPS was $(0.09) and adjusted diluted EPS was $0.13, with adjusted operating margin improving to 21% vs. 16% in Q3 .
  • Management cited slightly better-than-expected EyeQ volumes (up ~9% q/q) driven by Chinese domestic OEMs and guided conservatively for 2025 to account for macro and China visibility risks .
  • FY2025 guidance: revenue $1.69–$1.81 billion, GAAP operating loss $(574)–$(489) million, adjusted operating income $175–$260 million; Q1 2025 expected at ~25% of full-year revenue, gross margin ~100 bps above Q4, and adjusted OpEx around $250 million .
  • Operating cash flow was $400 million in FY2024; cash and equivalents stood at $1.426 billion with zero debt at year-end, supporting execution through advanced product launches (SuperVision, Chauffeur, Drive) and EyeQ6 ramp from 2026 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Adjusted operating margin rose to 21% in Q4 (from 16% in Q3), with ASPs, gross margin, and OpEx aligned to plan; EyeQ volumes were up ~9% q/q, aided by Chinese domestic OEM demand above prior expectations .
  • Strong liquidity and cash generation: $400 million operating cash flow in FY2024; $1.426 billion cash and equivalents and no debt at year-end .
  • Technology execution: EyeQ6 High on-track with 10x FPS vs. EyeQ5 High; imaging radar B-samples demonstrating strong performance; compound AI system infrastructure targeting ~100x camera-only MTBF vs. EyeQ5 High; VW Group milestones progressing for SuperVision/Chauffeur/Drive .

Quote: “Our autonomous driving system architecture is built to optimize both precision and scalability... We look forward to a robust cadence of EyeQ6 High-based product launches beginning in 2026.” — CEO Prof. Amnon Shashua

What Went Wrong

  • Q4 revenue down 23% YoY; GAAP gross margin fell ~482 bps YoY to 49%, driven by amortization over a lower revenue base; EyeQ average system price fell to $50.0 (mix effect with lower SuperVision contribution) .
  • China volatility and tariffs pressured volumes and mix through 2H24; management continues to assume conservative run-rates for Chinese OEMs and SuperVision volumes into 2025 .
  • 2024 financials impacted by earlier goodwill impairment (Q3); while non-cash, it highlights valuation pressure and underscores cautious near-term growth visibility .

Financial Results

GAAP Metrics

MetricQ4 2023Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$637 $439 $486 $490
Gross Margin (%)54% 48% 49% 49%
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$73 $(94) $(2,807) $(86)
Operating Margin (%)11% (21)% (578)% (18)%
Net Income ($USD Millions)$63 $(86) $(2,715) $(71)
Diluted EPS ($)$0.08 $(0.11) $(3.35) $(0.09)

Non-GAAP Metrics

MetricQ4 2023Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Adjusted Gross Margin (%)69% 69% 68% 69%
Adjusted Operating Income ($USD Millions)$247 $79 $78 $101
Adjusted Operating Margin (%)39% 18% 16% 21%
Adjusted Net Income ($USD Millions)$228 $76 $77 $107
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$0.28 $0.09 $0.10 $0.13

KPIs (Systems and ASP)

KPIQ4 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
EyeQ + SuperVision Revenue ($USD Millions)$611 $219 $413 $457 $464
Systems Shipped (Millions)11.6 3.6 7.6 8.6 9.3
Average System Price ($)$52.7 $61.0 $54.4 $53.3 $50.0

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($USD Millions)FY2025N/A$1,690–$1,810 New
GAAP Operating Loss ($USD Millions)FY2025N/A$(574)–$(489) New
Adjusted Operating Income ($USD Millions)FY2025N/A$175–$260 New
Effective Tax Rate (%)FY2025N/A~20% New
EyeQ Volume (Units, Millions)FY2025N/A32–34 New
SuperVision Volume (Units)FY2025N/A~20,000 (low 20k, mostly Polestar 4) New
Q1 Revenue SeasonalityQ1 2025N/A~25% of FY midpoint; down ~11% q/q; up ~80% YoY New
Q1 Gross MarginQ1 2025N/A~100 bps above Q4 New
Adjusted OpEx ($USD Millions)Q1 2025N/AAt/slightly below ~$250 per quarter New
Operating Cash FlowFY2025N/AExpected > adjusted net income; reduce strategic chip inventory New
FY2024 Guidance (context)FY2024$1,600–$1,680 revenue; AOI $152–$201 → updated to $1,620–$1,660 revenue; AOI $163–$190 $1,620–$1,660 revenue; AOI $163–$190 Maintained (reaffirmed Oct with ranges narrowed)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024)Previous Mentions (Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
AI/Compound AI efficiency, EyeQ6Introduced Brain6; line-of-sight to 100x+ improvements; modularity and guardrails; EyeQ6 platform testing at scale Deep-dive on compound AI approach; AI Day and planned CMD demos EyeQ6 High benchmarks vs competing silicon; transformer efficiency; purpose-built approach, efficiency focus Strengthening execution and visibility
Imaging radarEmphasized imaging radar as game-changing; B-samples and performance Increased spending on imaging radar approaching production OEM acceptance of imaging radar in Chauffeur; 2025 updates planned Advancing toward SOP (2H25 target in PR)
China demand/visibilityHeadwinds and tariffs; conservative SuperVision volumes; ADAS volatility China OEM volumes down; normalization of inventory; Q3/Q4 similar; sizing of China rev mix Q4 EyeQ volume upside from China OEMs; 2025 assumes deterioration for conservatism Volatile; guided conservatively
SuperVision/Chauffeur pipeline14 OEMs engaged; nominations targeted by YE’24; mid-trim surround ADAS RFQs No decisions against MBLY; progress toward decisions; execution on VW programs RFQs expanded; due diligence intense; 2025 cadence of announcements; VW milestones progressing Building momentum, timing uncertain
Seasonality/Guidance cadenceInventory digestion behind mostly; 2H24 volume reduction Reaffirmed FY2024 midpoint; OpEx control and LiDAR wind-down Q1 at ~25% of FY revenue; GM +100 bps; adj OpEx ~$250mm/qtr Conservative, supportive of FY guide
LiDAR strategyWind-down of internal FMCW LiDAR; shift to third-party Closure reiterated; cost and execution benefit Continued reliance on imaging radar + front LiDAR for AV; robotaxi uses 5 imaging radars Focus on radar; external LiDAR where needed
Robotaxi (Drive)VW/MOIA, Holo/Ruter, Verne progressing; closed user testing planned Closed user-group testing, mobility programs progressing 2025 milestones (closed user group, paid rides); SOP 2026–2027 targets Milestones expected in 2025

Management Commentary

  • Strategic execution: “Q4 was closely aligned with our expectations… Operating margin of 21% was almost 5 points higher than Q3… Operating cash flow was robust in 2024, finishing up by $400 million.” — CEO Prof. Amnon Shashua .
  • Conservative 2025 guide: “If we use indications from our customers for the full year, our guidance would be higher, but we prefer to take a conservative approach…” — CEO Prof. Amnon Shashua .
  • Efficiency-first AI: “Efficiency in our silicon design… transformer network which is a factor of 100 more efficient… EyeQ 6 exceeding… competing high-performance chips.” — CEO Prof. Amnon Shashua .
  • Imaging radar importance: “We see imaging radar as a game-changing sensor… acceptance from the OEMs to include imaging radar into Chauffeur.” — CEO Prof. Amnon Shashua .

Q&A Highlights

  • Advanced product nominations: Management reiterated no decisions against Mobileye and maintained expectations for 2025 cadence of announcements across surround ADAS and SuperVision; timing remains OEM-driven .
  • China dynamics and guidance bridge: Detailed EyeQ volume bridge from 2H24 annualized 35.6M to FY2025 midpoint 33M, factoring pull-forward, OEM production declines, share/ADAS adoption gains, seasonality, and China volatility .
  • SuperVision volumes: Assumed ~20k for 2025 (mostly Polestar 4) and that visibility is low; management will avoid explicitly addressing volumes near-term due to immateriality and volatility until Western OEM launches in 2026 .
  • Gross margin outlook: 2025 gross margin expected ~1.5 points higher than 2024, primarily on lower SuperVision percentage; Q1 GM ~100 bps above Q4 .
  • Robotaxi milestones: Expect closed user group testing and paid rides over 2025; SOP targeted 2026–2027 (VW ID Buzz and additional platforms) .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus could not be retrieved due to system limit. Estimates comparisons are therefore unavailable at this time. Values would be retrieved from S&P Global when accessible.
  • Management indicated Q4 results slightly exceeded internal Q4 outlook implied by prior full-year guidance (on China OEM volumes), but this is not a substitute for Wall Street consensus context .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q4 showed sequential improvement in adjusted operating margin and stabilization in gross margin, with EyeQ volumes up q/q; near-term growth remains constrained by China mix and SuperVision volatility .
  • FY2025 guide is deliberately conservative; Q1 set at ~25% of FY revenue, framing an achievable cadence even with macro deterioration, supporting reduced re-guide risk — a potential stabilizing factor for sentiment .
  • Medium-term thesis hinges on EyeQ6-led advanced product launches from 2026 and expanded RFQ pipeline across surround ADAS/SuperVision/Chauffeur; repeated OEM engagement breadth signals share and ASP uplift potential .
  • Operating cash flow resilience and strong cash balance provide flexibility to fund AI stack, imaging radar, and customer program execution without leverage; expect OCF > adjusted net income again in 2025 .
  • Watch for 2025 announcements and VW program milestones (SuperVision/Chauffeur/Drive); imaging radar adoption in Chauffeur is a differentiator vs. peers, and any design-wins are likely stock catalysts .
  • Near-term trading: Results lacked estimate context but beat internal outlook; any updates on RFQs or early 2025 robotaxi milestones could drive upside; China headline risk (tariffs, OEM share shifts) still a swing factor .
  • Risk management: Conservative assumptions around China and SuperVision limit downside from surprises; monitor Q1 revenue cadence and margin progression vs. guide to validate execution .