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MALIBU BOATS, INC. (MBUU)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 FY2025 revenue rose 30.4% year over year to $207.0M, with unit volume up 16.8% and gross margin expanding 790 bps to 15.8% on lower promotions and favorable mix .
  • Against S&P Global consensus, revenue was a material beat ($207.0M vs $195.3M*), while primary EPS missed modestly ($0.42 vs $0.46*); adjusted EBITDA tracked below consensus ($19.7M vs $21.3M*) .
  • FY2026 guidance introduced: net sales flat to down mid-single digits; adjusted EBITDA margin 8–9%; Q1 FY2026 expected net sales up high-single digits with 5–6% margin .
  • Management highlighted disciplined dealer inventory, tariff mitigation (estimated 1.5–3% COGS headwind), and 11 new Model Year 2026 boats as catalysts; rate relief would benefit payment-sensitive buyers .

Note: Values with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Revenue and margin inflection: net sales +30.4% YoY to $207.0M and gross margin +790 bps to 15.8% on decreased promotions and higher-margin mix .
  • Malibu segment rebound: Q4 Malibu net sales +114% YoY to $80.3M on higher shipments and improved mix; consolidated net sales per unit +11.6% to $169,565 .
  • Strategic discipline and innovation: “We remain disciplined, ready to scale and outperform when demand normalizes,” supported by 11 new MY26 models and next-gen Monsoon engine .

What Went Wrong

  • EPS under consensus despite operational improvements: primary EPS $0.42 vs $0.46* and EBITDA below consensus $19.7M vs $21.3M* (consensus likely non-adjusted vs company adjusted) .
  • Persistent retail softness and destocking: dealers entered year-end modestly heavy (1–2 weeks); FY2026 outlook assumes markets down mid–high single digits with continued destocking .
  • Saltwater and Cobalt volumes pressured: lower wholesale shipments and dealer desire to hold less inventory weighed on unit volumes despite mix-driven net sales resilience .

Note: Values with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

Financial Results

Quarterly Performance vs Prior Periods

MetricQ2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025
Net Sales ($USD Millions)$200.3 $228.7 $207.0
Unit Volume (Units)1,222 1,431 1,221
Gross Margin (%)18.7% 20.0% 15.8%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$16.9 $28.3 $19.7
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)8.4% 12.4% 9.5%
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.12 $0.66 $0.24
Adjusted EPS ($USD)$0.31 (fully distributed) $0.72 (fully distributed) $0.42 (adjusted net income per share)

Footnote: The company transitioned from “Adjusted Fully Distributed EPS” in Q2–Q3 to “Adjusted Net Income per Share” in Q4/FY2025 to better reflect current ownership structure; definitions and rationale disclosed in Q4 release .

Q4 Year-over-Year Comparison

MetricQ4 2024Q4 2025
Net Sales ($USD Millions)$158.7 $207.0
Gross Profit ($USD Millions)$12.5 $32.7
Gross Margin (%)7.9% 15.8%
Net Income ($USD Millions)$(19.6) $4.8
Net Income Margin (%)(12.3%) 2.3%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$(4.1) $19.7
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)(2.6%) 9.5%
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.94) $0.24
Adjusted EPS ($USD)$(0.40) $0.42

Consensus vs Actual (Q4 FY2025)

MetricConsensus (S&P Global)*ActualSurprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)$195.3*$207.0 +$11.8 (+~6.0%)*
Primary EPS ($USD)$0.4638*$0.42 −$0.0438 (−~9.4%)*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$21.3*$19.7 (Adjusted) −$1.6*

Note: Values with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Net Sales by Quarter

Segment Net Sales ($USD Millions)Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025
Malibu$74.1 $102.2 $80.3
Saltwater Fishing$70.2 $71.9 $72.9
Cobalt$56.0 $54.6 $53.8

KPIs

KPIQ2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025
Net Sales per Unit ($USD)$163,895 $159,792 $169,565

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net Sales (YoY)FY2026N/AFlat to down mid-single digits Initiated
Adjusted EBITDA MarginFY2026N/A8%–9% Initiated
Net Sales (YoY)Q1 FY2026N/AUp high-single digits Initiated
Adjusted EBITDA MarginQ1 FY2026N/A5%–6% Initiated
Tariff impact (COGS)FY2026N/AEstimated 1.5%–3% Initiated
FY2025 Net Sales (YoY) vs GuidanceFY2025Down 3%–5% Actual −2.6% Better than guided range
FY2025 Adj. EBITDA Margin vs GuidanceFY20259%–10% Actual 9.3% Within guided range

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 FY2025)Previous Mentions (Q3 FY2025)Current Period (Q4 FY2025)Trend
Dealer inventory & destockingDisciplined production; dealers focused on non-current clearance; retail down double digits Healthy entering season; promotions moderating; expect less Q4 promos vs last year Dealers modestly heavy at YE (1–2 weeks); FY2026 assumes continued destocking Ongoing discipline; modest overhang
Tariffs / macroMinimal impact FY2025; exposure 18–20% of COGS from imports FY2025 minimal; mitigation strategies in place FY2026 tariff headwind 1.5–3% COGS; pricing and supply-chain mitigation Headwind crystallizing FY2026
Pricing & promotionsPrice increases modest low single digits; focus on normalized consumer incentives Promotional levels consistent YTD; expected lower vs last year in Q4 Promotions now normalized; lower promotions driving margin Improved promotional discipline
Product innovation / MY26Dealer enthusiasm for 2025 models; strength in M230/25 LSV/Cobia Continued innovation; mix-driven ASP gains 11 new MY26 models (Malibu 22 LSV, Axis T250, Cobia 245/305, Pursuit S388); Monsoon engine rollout Strong pipeline
Regional trends (Saltwater/Florida)Florida down >20%; >50% saltwater exposure in FL Florida improved vs Q2 but not back to growth Dealers desire less inventory; saltwater volumes lower; mix benefits offset Gradual stabilization
CapEx & FCFCapEx $5.6M; strong cash generation CapEx guided $25–30M; repurchases moderated Q4 FCF $14.3M; FY2025 FCF ~$28.9M; CapEx $27.9M; FY2026 CapEx similar to FY2025 Normalized post-expansion

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “Fiscal year 2025 was a challenging year for the marine industry, but I am proud of the groundwork we laid by supporting our dealers' efforts to reduce their inventory... introducing eleven new models across the portfolio... ready to scale and outperform when demand normalizes” .
  • CFO: “In 2026, we will maintain our disciplined approach to dealer health... confident in our ability to outpace the industry while leveraging our cash generation to continue investing” .
  • CEO on tariffs: “We anticipate a modest direct impact on our fiscal 2026 structure estimated between 1.5% to 3% cost of sales... proactive in mitigating impacts through strategic supply chain management...” .
  • CFO on macro and guidance: “Our guide today is anchored in the expectation that our markets will decline in the range of mid to high single digits... Q1 net sales up high single digits; Q1 margin 5%–6%” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Inventory and destocking: Modestly elevated dealer inventories (1–2 weeks heavy) across segments; FY2026 plan incorporates further destocking to protect dealer health .
  • Tariff mitigation: Mix of advanced purchases (~$10M additional working capital in FY2025), supply-chain efficiencies, and pricing; consensus that consumer financing rate cuts would take time to flow through .
  • Interest rate assumptions: Guidance does not assume rate cuts; any cuts would first benefit floor-plan financing, then consumer rates with lag .
  • Balance sheet and capital allocation: Net cash ~$19M; repurchased ~$36M in shares FY2025; occasional revolver draws for working capital; strong liquidity .
  • Margin pathway: Stabilized units (ending destock) and normalized promotions are key to returning to double-digit EBITDA margin over time .

Estimates Context

  • Q4 FY2025 revenue beat S&P Global consensus ($207.0M vs $195.3M*), while primary EPS missed ($0.42 vs $0.46*); consensus EBITDA ($21.3M*) exceeded the company’s reported adjusted EBITDA ($19.7M), noting definitional differences .
  • For forward context, Q1 FY2026 actuals came above consensus on revenue ($194.7M vs $182.2M*) and EPS ($0.15 vs $0.095*); Q2 FY2026 consensus implies continued caution (revenue ~$182.4M*, EPS ~$0.02*) [functions.GetEstimates].

Note: Values with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Narrative supports a “revenue beat, EPS miss” quarter; margin improvement from lower promotions and mix validates operating discipline, but EPS underperformance vs consensus tempers upside .
  • FY2026 set-up is conservative (flat to down mid-single-digit sales; 8–9% margin), reflecting continued destocking and tariff headwinds; upside exists if retail stabilizes and rates ease .
  • Malibu segment strength and robust MY26 launch cadence are likely to sustain mix benefits; focus on dealer health reduces promotional drag and supports margin durability .
  • Saltwater demand remains a watch item; Florida has improved vs Q2 but is not yet back to growth; mix and pricing can offset volumes, but sustained recovery would be a catalyst .
  • Cash generation and liquidity underpin flexibility for repurchases and investment; occasional revolver usage is tactical rather than structural .
  • Tariff mitigation plans are credible (advanced buys, sourcing changes, selective pricing), but 1.5–3% COGS headwind is non-trivial; consensus recalibration may be needed if tariffs persist .
  • Near-term trading: revenue beat plus conservative FY2026 outlook and EPS miss likely drive mixed reaction; watch for Q1 FY2026 delivery vs guide (revenue up high-single digits; margin 5–6%) as next catalyst .