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    MCDONALDS (MCD)

    Q1 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 10, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$273.55Last close (Apr 29, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$264.33Open (Apr 30, 2024)
    Price Change
    $-9.22(-3.37%)
    • McDonald's continues to lead in delivery, drive-thru, and digital ("the 3Ds"), investing in these areas to drive growth, with the U.S. business hitting all-time highs in delivery and significant progress in digital sales growth.
    • The company's fully modernized estate, best-in-class marketing that resonates with customers, and strong financial strength position it advantageously in the challenging macro environment, enabling it to invest in value and affordability initiatives to gain market share.
    • McDonald's is enhancing customer experience through improved restaurant operations, including increased speed of service, lower turnover, and rising customer satisfaction scores in the U.S., which is expected to support sales growth.
    • McDonald's anticipates negative industry traffic in the U.S. for the full year due to significant macroeconomic headwinds, which may adversely affect sales growth.
    • The lack of a national value platform in the U.S., while competitors have one, could reduce McDonald's competitiveness in a price-sensitive consumer environment.
    • The company's relative superiority on affordability has declined in some markets, potentially impacting customer satisfaction and market share.
    1. Comps Outlook Revision
      Q: Are U.S. and IOM comps still expected in 3-4% range?
      A: Management indicated that due to significant macro headwinds, they expect comparable sales growth in the U.S. and international markets to be below the historical 3-4% range. They note that industry traffic is either flat or declining, affecting their outlook.

    2. Operating Margin Guidance
      Q: Can operating margin guidance be tightened from wide range?
      A: Management acknowledges the mid- to high 40s operating margin guidance range is wide due to macro uncertainties. They remain confident in driving leverage over time but cannot tighten expectations at this point.

    3. U.S. Consumer Behavior
      Q: What are you seeing with U.S. consumer behavior?
      A: Consumers are being very discriminating in their spending due to inflation, with all income cohorts seeking value. McDonald's focuses on offering strong value and improving operations, including better speed of service and increased customer satisfaction.

    4. National Value Platform Plan
      Q: What's the plan for a national value platform in the U.S.?
      A: Current U.S. value offerings are fragmented across 50 different local approaches. Management sees an opportunity to drive better awareness with a strong national value proposition, which could quickly impact business results.

    5. Current Pricing and Inflation Outlook
      Q: What's current pricing and inflation outlook?
      A: In the U.S., most pricing is carryover with no new increases. They expect high single-digit labor inflation due to factors like California wage increases and low single-digit food and paper inflation returning to historical levels.

    6. Core Menu Pricing Strategy
      Q: Is there a need to address core menu pricing variations?
      A: Management believes local pricing capabilities allow adjustments based on competition, maintaining a decent position overall. They acknowledge the opportunity to better communicate value on core menu items to consumers.

    7. Franchisee Support and Margins
      Q: Will you support franchisees in investing in value?
      A: Franchise restaurant margins are now back to 2019 levels. McDonald's does not step in to subsidize pricing but works with franchisees to balance national value initiatives without significantly affecting their profitability.

    8. International Business Trends
      Q: How is international business performing amid headwinds?
      A: Macro headwinds are more significant in several large international markets, continuing into Q2. Management has provided some support to franchisees in affected regions but not at significant levels.

    9. CosMc's Early Learnings
      Q: What are early learnings from CosMc's tests?
      A: It's too early to report significant findings as current interest is curiosity-driven. Success will be measured by comparable or stronger ROIC versus traditional McDonald's, based on unit volumes, margins, and capital costs.

    10. Customer Satisfaction Scores
      Q: Why has your satisfaction gap to industry narrowed?
      A: Despite overall improvements, the gap has narrowed due to losing some relative superiority on affordability in certain markets. Management is focusing on enhancing value perception to address this.

    11. Impact of Economic Slowdown
      Q: How does the slowdown affect McDonald's and franchisees?
      A: While lower-income consumers are pressured, McDonald's often benefits from consumers trading down. Franchisees are in a strong financial position and aligned on addressing value initiatives.

    12. Potential National Value Platform Details
      Q: How could a national value platform work given cost differences?
      A: Management believes they can develop a national value proposition despite varied costs, as competitors face similar challenges. The focus is on entry-level price points, meal deals, and breakfast value.

    13. Differentiating the New Value Platform
      Q: How will this value platform differ from past attempts?
      A: Previous national value programs like the $1 $2 $3 Menu eventually drove strong results. The key difference now is driving consumer awareness quickly to impact transactions.

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