Ramaco Resources - Q4 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Welcome to the Ramaco Resources fourth quarter 2023 results conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by zero. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. Please note, today's event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Jeremy Sussman, Chief Financial Officer of Ramaco Resources. Please go ahead, sir.

Jeremy Sussman (CFO)

Thank you. On behalf of Ramaco Resources, I'd like to welcome all of you to our fourth quarter 2023 earnings call. With me this morning is Randall Atkins, our Chairman and CEO, Chris Blanchard, our Chief Operating Officer, and Jason Fannin, our Chief Commercial Officer. Before we start, I'd like to share our normal cautionary statement. Certain items discussed on today's call constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These forward-looking statements represent Ramaco's expectations concerning future events. These statements are subject to risks, uncertainties, and other factors, many of which are outside of Ramaco's control, which could cause actual results to differ materially from the results discussed in the forward-looking statements.

Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which it is made, and except as required by law, Ramaco does not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. I'd like to remind you that you can find a reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures that we plan to discuss today in our press release, which can be viewed on our website, ramacoresources.com. Lastly, I'd encourage everyone on this call to go onto our website and download today's investor presentation. With that said, let me introduce our Chairman and CEO, Randall Atkins.

Randall Atkins (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks, Jeremy. Good morning to everyone. As always, thanks both for your interest and for joining the call. We have a lot of positive developments to unpack this morning since we spoke last November. I discussed then, over the past few years, we have tried to differentiate ourselves by aggressively but prudently growing our production and sales profile. In 2021 through last year, we doubled our production. Our goals over the next few years are to again double our current 3.5 million ton level in met coal, and next, to hopefully add an intriguing and very valuable new line of business with rare earths. Looking back over the last few years, we invested almost $250 million in capital for increased production and acquisition.

That strategic investment in growth paid off for us in the second half of 2023, again, letting us beat consensus for the last two quarters. I will let Jeremy provide the financial metrics, where Q4 was the record quarter for us this year, and we printed $182 million in annual EBITDA, and also had record free cash flow, all despite some muted pricing in the overall markets. As we look down the road at our quality slate, we are aiming to essentially double our Low Vol , mid vol levels to about 50% of overall production, with another 30% as High Vol A. Today, we are about 40% High Vol A and 30% Low Vol , mid vol.

In part, that decision is based on our organic reserve quality mix, but it's also based on what we perceive may be some future crowding in the High Vol A space. Several peers are slated to bring on as much as 6 million tons of new production in that blend over the 2024-2026 period. On the other hand, we see Low Vol production is essentially flat, with a fair amount of anticipated depletion from existing Low Vol mines. Moving forward, we expect spreads may start widening between premium Low Vol and lower-tier high vol coals, and we hope to be able to capture that margin. Turning to our fourth quarter performance, we managed to do well despite seeing not much strength in pricing over the back half of the year.

This year's North American domestic settlements for 2024 were down year-over-year, about $40 a ton from 2023. While U.S. met indices rose in the fourth quarter, they also ended 2023 more than 10% below Q1 levels. Our fourth quarter, financially, was fundamentally due to a sales increase of shipping at a 4 million ton per annum run rate during the whole second half of 2023. That was a bump of about 33% compared to our 3 million ton per rate in the first half. We were also helped by the completion of the 1 million ton increase in our processing capacity at our Elk Creek complex. Moving to this year's sales and marketing, we took a balanced approach to our 2024 domestic sales exposure and committed only about 1.5 million tons of coal to North American customers.

We thought the offered pricing terms were pretty muted and probably at the bottom of the cycle when tenders were being negotiated last fall. Despite that, our average mixed fixed domestic sales price of $167 per ton, was the highest 2024 pricing figure among our publicly traded peers. By shaving back the level of our North American business, we pivoted to an increased export book, which will now be over two-thirds of this year's sales. At the start of December, we had 2 million tons committed sales for 2024. In the past two months, that number has almost doubled to 3.9 million tons, which means we are now basically 100% sold out at the low end of our original 2024 production guidance.

Fortunately, most of those sales had been in the works for some time, so we were able to move those tons without sacrificing pricing. We now hope to accelerate that sales growth as we move further into 2024. As a result of that material increase in committed sales, as you know, we recently raised our 2024 sales and production guidance. Depending upon continued market conditions, we hope to end the year with a sales jump of as much as 40% from 2023 levels. To profile our sales to date, interestingly, we have now begun to move significant tons into Asian markets. Two years ago, we didn't really have any Asian business. Now we will end up the year with north of 30% of our sales going to Asian customers.

When all is said and done, about 30% of our overall 2024 book will be priced off Australian indexes, about 40% off Atlantic indexes, and about 30% will be fixed price domestic. Jason will speak on the relativities of our pricing and also give most of our color on markets, but I'll add a few observations. We now see European markets as somewhat spring-loaded. It has been pushed down so hard over the past year and a half, that we feel when it rebounds and many of the mills reopen, we may see somewhat of a pop and perhaps some supply dislocations in the Atlantic markets. We have historically done well in Europe, and indeed, we're decent-sized sellers, even into Ukraine. When that whole situation eventually resolves itself, there could be an interesting turn.

In Asia, as I said, we were nowhere in this market two years ago. We are now a major supplier to Indonesia and other non-China markets. Despite the gloom around China, we see the other Asian markets as relatively healthy. We look forward to making further inroads in the region, particularly with our ability to leverage our increasing low-vol production slate. Switching to operations, I want to compliment our operating team first for a great safety record last year. I also want to note the great work on developing the two deep mine sections at our low-vol Berwind mine. Since September, Berwind has produced at an annualized run rate of 600,000 tons. We are now planning to begin the third section in the next few months and hope to be at a 1 million-ton run rate by year-end.

Cash mine costs at Berwind have currently been under $90 per ton from both deep sections. If this trend continues, and as we ultimately take the mine to four sections, we expect Berwind to be among the highest margin and lowest and largest production low-vol mine complexes in the country. Moving on to another low-vol project, last month, we purchased a very reasonably priced $3 million existing coal prep plant, which will be relocated to our Raven complex. We will spend another $8 million this year to move, relocate, and upgrade this plant. For cost comparison, had we built a new plant of comparable capacity, the price was estimated at roughly $40 million. This plant should be operational by the fourth quarter of 2024. It will meaningfully reduce both the current overall $40 per ton trucking cost, as well as our cash mine costs.

The plant will have an ultimate annualized clean coal capacity of 1.3 million tons, far more than our 350,000-ton current surface and high wall production. We will have the opportunity to add a good deal more deep tons to that complex in the years ahead, as the market may dictate. Chris will also make some comments on Maven in his remarks. Looking at our balance sheet, last year, we were able to halve the amount of debt on our books, and we started 2024 with about $50 million of term and equipment debt. Assuming current conditions continue, we look to retire all of that debt this year. As I said earlier, we are also rapidly growing.

Looking ahead, we are planning today for the notional increase in the amount of both sales and inventory we envision over the coming years. Accordingly, we just executed a mandate with KeyBank on behalf of our banking syndicate, to both increase and extend the size and term of our existing revolver. This facility will then have a base borrowing amount of $200 million, with an additional $75 million accordion feature expansion, as well as a new 5-year term. This is an increase from our existing $125 million facility, and we look to finalize all this in Q2. Finally, with respect to our Brook Mine rare earth project, we are aggressively working to advance the commercialization. We expect to receive the updated independent target exploration report from Weir International within 2 weeks.

When we do, we will publish the report, and I will provide an accompanying shareholder letter to explain its findings, as well as the project's critical path and direction. We will also expect to host a separate analyst call to discuss its conclusion and respond to any investor questions. Also, I would be remiss not to note that on the back of our solid met coal execution this year and the announcement of our RE discovery, we were delighted that our shareholders enjoyed some very impressive results over the past year. In 2023, our market cap increased by over $500 million. Today, including the value of our MetCB shares, we have a combined market cap of roughly $1 billion. This compares to our market value of just over $100 million a few short years ago.

Indeed, to start the year, we enjoyed the highest total shareholder return, which includes share price and dividends, of any company in the coal and mining space. We had a one-year return of roughly 200% and over 1,000% return for the three-year period dating back to 2020. We are deeply appreciative of our investor support from both longtime as well as new shareholders, and we are working hard to continue to reward that support. In summary, this year promises some very positive results for Ramaco. With that, I will turn the floor over to the rest of our team to discuss finances, operations, and markets. Jeremy, please start us off with a rundown on financial metrics.

Jeremy Sussman (CFO)

Thank you, Randall. As you noted, financially, we enjoyed a strong fourth quarter in 2023, which was easily our strongest quarter of the year. While U.S. metallurgical coal indices did rise in the fourth quarter compared to the prior two quarters, the indices were still more than 10% below Q1 levels. Our strong Q4 was frankly due to both solid execution of our growth strategy and tight cost control. Specifically, in each of Q3 and Q4, we shipped at a 4 million ton per annum run rate, compared to a 3 million ton per annum run rate in the first half. In Q4, our margins expanded more than 50% versus Q3. Realized pricing was up 10% to $173 per ton on stronger indices.

More importantly, cash costs per ton fell $7 sequentially on both a stronger, absolute and relative contribution from our main Berwind mine, as Randall noted. In terms of financial metrics, Adjusted EBITDA was $58 million in Q4, up almost 30% from Q3. Fourth quarter net income of $30 million was up more than 50% sequentially. Now, I want to make one point on net income and earnings per share. First, for comparative purposes, had we calculated EPS as we had in the past, I would note that Q4 fully diluted EPS would have been $0.68. That said, since we issued the tracking stock in mid 2023, GAAP accounting rules have frankly complicated our EPS calculations. 2024 will be our first full year with having a dual share class structure.

I would note that the Class B dividend amount each quarter will affect the Class A EPS calculation alone. Adjusted EBITDA, net income, and all other key items will not be affected. Based on our current outlook, I would expect quarterly 2024 Class A EPS to come in anywhere from 70%-90% of how EPS would be calculated on a normal single share class estimate. For some guidance, the higher net income is, the greater the percentage of EPS assigned to the Class A shares will likely be. As a reminder, the Class A stock has just under 44 million shares outstanding. We are expecting first quarter shipments of 800,000-950,000 tons, which is well below the run rate we anticipate for the full year.

However, we anticipate building inventory in Q1 ahead of some larger term deals into Asia, which begin in Q2, and also ahead of the Great Lakes, which open in late March. With that said, we anticipate both production and shipments to increase throughout the year with a meaningful uptick in the second half. Specifically, this second half increase will come from the addition of the more than 400,000 tons per annum RAM 3 surface and highwall mine at Elk Creek and the 300,000 tons per annum third section at the Berwind Mine. Mine costs are also projected to decline each quarter throughout the year as volumes increase sequentially. For the full year, we are reiterating all key prior 2024 operational guidance, which you can find in our tables.

I'll note that at the midpoint of guidance, we anticipate both production and sales up roughly 30% versus 2023, a slight decline in cash costs, and a roughly 30% decline in CapEx. Moving to the balance sheet. In Q4, we repaid the final $10 million of debt related to the 2022 Ramaco Coal acquisition. We ended 2023 with just $48 million of term debt outstanding, excluding the revolver, and $42 million of cash. Lastly, we finished 2023 with record year-end liquidity of $91 million compared to $49 million at year-end 2022.

... As Randall both said and provided specifics, we have just this week reached a preliminary agreement with KeyBank to increase and extend the terms of our revolver. We expect this to be finalized in Q2. I would now like to turn the call over to our Chief Operating Officer, Chris Blanchard.

Chris Blanchard (COO)

Thank you, Jeremy, and thank you to everyone who joined us this morning. I want to first start by reiterating how pleased and proud we are of the safety performance and environmental stewardship that we achieved in the field in 2023. We had overall, our lowest incident rate in our history last year, and we are focused on improving and enhancing that performance as we move forward. Looking back on 2023 operationally, it was a tale of two halves. The first half was constrained at both of our big complexes. We had delays in the preparation plant upgrade at Elk Creek, and Berwind was completing its development mining to reach the thick Pocahontas seams following the ignition event of 2022. The second half, however, saw us increase preparation capacity at Elk Creek and begin the monetization of our inventory, which had built up.

We also reached the long-talked-about main reserve at the Berwind mine and staffed the mine and quickly reached and exceeded projected production levels. We also started our surface mine at Raven, which has run better than expected. The sales and marketing team has done an incredible job selling our inventory. Now, as we turn into 2024, our operations will ramp up to meet these new elevated sales levels and work to double the size of our production over the next several years, as Randall has described. That work is underway at all three of our main complexes now. At Elk Creek, after a couple of years with flat production, we've moved forward with the RAM number 3 project. This will bring on 300,000-400,000 annualized additional production from a second surface mine and its accompanying highwall miner operation.

This mine had been previously planned in both 2022 and 2023, but due to market conditions, the plant capacities and availabilities, it was postponed. Already in 2024, we have broken ground and now expect our first surface tons in July with the RAM 3 highwall miner, following with production beginning in October. The RAM 3 cost structure should match or beat the existing surface mine at Elk Creek, both increasing our overall volumes and also lowering the average Elk Creek cash costs. At Berwind, as we discussed, both super sections are now in normal operation and since Q3, have been hitting targeted production. Our number 1 section has reached the area where a series of air shafts and a new portal and elevator will be built. Once completed, this ventilation increase will allow the startup of our number 3 section.

With three sections operating later this year, we expect to be producing at nearly 1 million clean ton per year rate from the Berwind mine itself. With the investments Ramaco has made over the past several years at Berwind, in the preparation plant, in belt lines from the mine to the plant, and of course, in the purchase of the coal reserves, Berwind is finally poised to be among the lowest cost and largest premium low-vol complexes in the United States for many years. Finally, at Raven, we are taking steps to grow that operation into a full standalone complex with the purchase and the relocation of the preparation plant to the Raven site. Work has begun on demolition of the existing plant, and the first deliveries of components have begun this week.

We anticipate the rebuild of the plant to begin in the summer and the plant to be commissioned late this year. The size of the plant, as purchased, will allow us to wash all current surface and highwall miner coal at Raven, as well as any initial underground sections that are contemplated in the future. As Raven grows, the modular plant design will allow us to quickly add upgrade circuits to the plant. Depending on market conditions, we believe that the Raven complex, if totally green lighted, could eventually produce between 1.2-1.5 million annual clean tons. However, in the near term, getting the initial preparation plant in operation will drive down our transportation costs and save us nearly $40 per clean ton on the raw coal haul bill that we currently bear.

Having the clean coal at Maven also opens this premium coal for shipment on both of the railroads as well as to river-served customers. It is an exciting time for Ramaco operations. 2024 and the next couple of years will be eventful as we grow out our existing complexes and continue to look for other opportunistic ways to enhance shareholder value. As we grow, however, our primary focus will remain on safety performance, environmental stewardship, and maintaining strict cost control at all of our existing and new operations. Now, for a more detailed discussion of the markets and the sales book, I would like to turn the call over to our Chief Commercial Officer, Jason Fannin.

Jason Fannin (Chief Commercial Officer)

Thanks, Chris, and good morning, everyone. I will share what we are seeing in the markets and our current and forward sales outlook.

... Global coking coal markets remain well supported, mainly due to lower supply because of continued underinvestment in the coal space. Economic conditions, steel market fundamentals, and demand outlook continue to vary widely around the globe. Integrated mills and coke batteries in the U.S. continue to run strong on the back of sustained steel demand and pricing levels. Brazil continues to struggle with low-cost steel imports and weak coke production, while economic conditions in Europe, along with high carbon taxes, are keeping demand from rebounding there. Although many blast furnaces have returned to production to start the year, but at low utilization rates. One bright spot for U.S. producers during much of 2023 and continuing into 2024, has been the Pacific market, ex-China, where Ramaco is now becoming a player.

We saw tremendous year-over-year demand growth in India, new coke batteries continuing to ramp up in Indonesia, and traditional customers in South Korea and Japan expanding their intakes of U.S. coking coal as they diversify and de-risk their supply portfolio. Since our last call, we have effectively doubled our committed and sold position for 2024. Since December, as Randall said, we added 1.8 million tons of new sales, essentially all to seaborne markets at index-linked pricing. This now brings our overall sold position to about 3.9 million tons, basically 100% of our original lower-end sales guidance. As Randall also mentioned, during much of 2023, Ramaco focused its marketing efforts on the growing Asian markets, placing multiple test cargoes of all grades of coking coal, Low Vol , mid vol, and high vol, into several different end users.

The culmination of those efforts has resulted in a number of long-term offtake agreements across all ranks of our product portfolio, with shipments beginning in earnest during Q2. At the same time, we have maintained and grown our business in North America and the Atlantic Basin with specific long-term partners who place incremental premium pricing value in Ramaco's broad spectrum of low ash, low sulfur coking coals. Turning to the current pricing environment, index values have softened since the start of the year. China is treading water, even though coal production has been cut back. India has a temporarily subdued market, as elections there have slowed additional new infrastructure project announcements.

As of March 7, the U.S. East Coast index values were $257 per ton for Low Vol , $249 per ton for High Vol A, and $208 per ton for High Vol B, while Australian premium Low Vol sat at $304 per ton. This dislocation between U.S. and Australian pricing has persisted since late September, with US coking coals continuing to be fundamentally undervalued. During U.S. Low Vol averaged a 96% relativity to Australian PLV, and US High Vol A averaged a 99% relativity. Those relativities have dropped substantially, and as of yesterday, stood at 85% and 82% respectively. U.S. Low Vol market is currently much tighter than the indices suggest.

As Randall commented, we see demand continuing to outpace supply in the U.S. Low Vol and mid vol segment, where Ramaco is placing its bets and continues to focus on growing production. We see much of the near-term growth in U.S. coking coal supply in the high vol space. Fortunately, we already placed much of our high vol production into long-term offtake agreements prior to a lot of this additional new high vol production coming to market. Regarding our sold pricing performance versus the markets, our low and mid vol coals sold into into traditional markets, have been sold at near parity to the U.S. Low Vol index. Our high vol sales to traditional markets are at a modest discount to U.S. indices. Our sales into Asian markets are priced against a basket of Australian indices, along with typical freight differentials.

Looking ahead, we hope to place a substantial amount of additional tonnage for the year in line with, or perhaps exceeding our guidance. With that said, I would now like to return the call to the operator for the Q&A portion of the call. Operator?

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, we ask that you please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star then two. Today's first question comes from Lucas Pipes with B. Riley Securities. Please go ahead.

Nick Giles (Senior Research Analyst)

Thank you, operator. Good morning, everyone. This is Nick Giles asking a question on behalf of Lucas. Congrats on the solid results here. My first question was around volume cadence. First quarter guidance was 800-950,000 tons, and I was wondering what would take you to the higher low end of that range? And then you mentioned a 5 million ton run rate over the second half, and should we think about that as an even split or, or more weighted to, to Q4? Thank you very much.

Jeremy Sussman (CFO)

Hey, Nick. It's Jeremy here. Good to hear from you. So, I mean, you know, sitting here at the beginning of March, you know, there's always a lot of variability with rails and, you know, as we export more, you know, you're gonna end up on larger and larger vessels. So, I mean, frankly, the difference between the low end and the high end this quarter is mostly on the logistics side, you know, I would say. So, you know, obviously, we hope to be at the high end, but, you know, I think...

... history has told us that, you know, while the rails have certainly improved, at the end of the day, there's still, you know, there's still some variability in there, hence the, hence the range. In terms of the cadence, I mean, I'd say, you know, volume will ramp up kind of each quarter. So, you know, if you're kind of thinking about a sales cadence, second quarter will probably be around 1 million tons. I'd say, you know, third quarter and fourth quarter is really where you're gonna see the big step up, and frankly, fourth quarter, a little bit higher than the, than the third quarter. Call it, you know, 1.25 million, 1.3 million in Q4.

You know, really, you know, I'll let Chris kind of touch a little bit upon this, but the big delta is just, you know, as he talked about in his prepared remarks, when you bring the third section on at Berwind and the RAM 3 mine at Elk Creek, I mean, that's almost 750,000 tons on an annualized basis. Chris, you wanna touch on a little bit of that?

Chris Blanchard (COO)

Yeah. Yeah. So the cadence is, obviously, Ram Surface Mine, which is the smaller part of that complex, will come in in the very end of the second quarter, beginning of the third quarter, and then we'll layer in the highwall miner at Elk Creek in the fourth quarter, and that will be the bulk of the production. And so that's why you get the step change on the Elk Creek side. And then, at Berwind, on the Low Vol , it's all based around the timing of our third section, which is ventilation dependent. So we'd love to start that earlier, but the reality is it really won't start up until third quarter, and then as we build the workforce and get it to normalized production, you'll see that step change in the fourth quarter, which has us exiting the year at the 5 million ton run rate.

Nick Giles (Senior Research Analyst)

Super helpful. Thanks, thanks, Jeremy and Chris. My next question was just on quality mix. You provided a nice outlook on a full year basis, and you know, I think you mentioned the Great Lakes picking up here in March. So how should we think about quality mix here in Q1 and maybe how things would progress into the second quarter as well?

Jason Fannin (Chief Commercial Officer)

Yeah, Nick, this is Jason. You know, as far as Q1 goes, you know, I think our quality mix will look quite a bit like it did in, in Q4. Certainly, you know, as Chris mentioned, a lot of the production ramp coming in the back half of this year, which we'll see certainly more, more Low Vol . You know, as you mentioned, RAM 3 was a smaller part of that uptick in the back half. But our, our Q1, production mix, and quality mix, essentially mirrored Q4 there.

Jeremy Sussman (CFO)

You know, Nick, one thing I'd point to the slide 7, where we kind of give the breakdown. Randall touched upon it in his prepared remarks. But, you know, I think the thing to note there is, you know, that the big change is on the Low Vol side. So I mean, you know, right now we're at sort of a 40% Low Vol , mid vol, kind of a mix. You know, as we move forward, you know, ultimately that'll take us above, you know, kind of 50%. So, I mean, our mix, I'd say in Q1, will look a little bit different, you know, obviously, than it will, kind of when we exit the year as Berwind ramps.

Ultimately, you know, you get a full year of Maven and bring on more tons there as well.

Nick Giles (Senior Research Analyst)

Got it. Got it. Thanks very much. If I could maybe just sneak one more in on the market. You know, I think you touched on the European market and cited lower utilizations. I was wondering if you'd expect those operations to ramp up over the course of the year. Are you seeing any green shoots yet? Thanks for any additional comments.

Jason Fannin (Chief Commercial Officer)

Yeah, sure, Nick, this is Jason again. Yeah, I mean, as Randall mentioned, it seems like that market's kind of spring-loaded for a rebound. I think there are several, you know, triggers that are gonna be necessary to cause that. You know, they've been so depressed now for the last couple, three years, you know, certainly really since COVID, and then the energy impacts after the Ukraine war began. We have grown business with certain customers there for the premium products. Those customers have a very, let's say, strong outlook for this year as it goes forward. Some of those customers have indeed restarted blast furnaces. I think some of the capacity holdbacks on those furnaces are, you know, an attempt to keep the steel pricing at a reasonable level for them.

I think one of the big triggers for a rebound there would be some resolution in Ukraine. If you recall, you know, prior to the war, they were taking upwards of 4 million tons a year from the U.S. That could be a big jump in demand out of the States, you know, if and when that happens. But certainly, there are shoots there, and there are positive aspects there. It's just a matter of timing.

Chris Blanchard (COO)

I'd also say, Nick, that on a macro, you know, of course, Europe has been sort of behind the U.S. in terms of its perception of when interest rates may start to decline. But I do think if you see the U.S. decline at some point this year, you'll see Europe probably following its footsteps not too much further after that. And I think that would be another catalyst towards seeing a little bit more economic activity over there.

Nick Giles (Senior Research Analyst)

Got it. Got it. Well, I really appreciate all the color. Congrats again on the quarter and continued best of luck.

Chris Blanchard (COO)

Thanks, Nick.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. And ladies and gentlemen, as a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star then one. Our next question today comes from Nathan Martin with The Benchmark Company. Please go ahead.

Nathan Martin (Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks, operator. Good morning, guys. Maybe sticking with the slide deck real quick. I think it's slide six. You guys talk about, you know, medium-term production of possibly 7 million+ tons. Could you provide a little more color around that target? Maybe how much CapEx that could possibly take, or at least how many years you guys foresee it taking to kind of get to that level, which I think, Randall, you said is, basically, double what you guys did in 2023.

Randall Atkins (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah, I think in terms of the cadence, we kind of look at that as probably a three-year ramp. You know, we bump Elk Creek up to about 3.5 million tons. We'd have Berwind probably at a 1.5-2 million ton level. We haven't green lighted Mayben yet, but that would bump probably to about 1.5 million tons, give or take. And then we'd also have Knox Creek in there, with, frankly, as much as just a little bit under 1 million tons. So actually, that adds up to a little bit more than 7 million, but we've got room for a little wiggle room in there.

I think in terms of the CapEx, you know, we've got to work through it, but I would say, you know, our main CapEx for this would probably be $25-$26. You know, we to get to where we are right now in 2024, moving even up to sort of a $4.5+ million threshold, you know, we're really bumping CapEx, you know, only about $13 million from what we'd originally come in at to maybe in the sort of the low 60s-high 50s $ million range. And as we look further out, you know, we're, we will give you plenty of heads up as to what the numbers will be. But I would say our, our cadence would probably ramp for probably 2 years at about a doubling of that rate.

Of course, that also includes maintenance CapEx, too. Our growth CapEx is gonna be much less than that. But, you know, when we get to the point of laying all that out with any new guidance on specific projects to take that up, we will be happy to provide all the CapEx numbers around it. Growth CapEx, that is.

Nathan Martin (Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. Appreciate it, Randall. Maybe shifting over to the Brook Mine and the potential rare earth element side of the house. And you mentioned the expectation to get the Weir report, I think, over the next two weeks or so. And what kind of information do you expect from that? And then separately, do you guys still anticipate receiving the report from SRK? I think you said previously, by the end of the first half, and correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe that should give us the first glimpse into possible economics of the project as well.

Randall Atkins (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah. So great question. So basically, to break it down, in the Weir report, we are going to. We have essentially been putting up a tremendous amount, like thousands of additional samples that have been tested since our first report. So that's what's given the time lag. We've also gone back, as we will explain, and done some interesting new testing metrics that will be focused not only on tonnage, but more importantly, on concentrations. So I don't wanna front load that because it's gonna be out soon enough. And in terms of SRK, basically, what they were brought in to do was, of course, to help us determine the economics.

The way that cadence will roll is, first, you have to determine essentially what the chemical and metallurgical and mineralogical character of the deposit is before you can really determine how the best processing techniques will be developed. So that's frankly the process that we're in now. Again, once we come out with the report, we will have a full disclosure of everything we're looking at. We've just brought on board someone who is kind of now going to functionally run our rare earth effort, who's got a great deal of experience and background in this area.

Look forward to having a sort of an analyst call here, probably sometime within the next month, to be able to explain all the, all the findings from the Weir report, and also to give you sort of a critical path of how we're proceeding forward with the commercialization efforts.

Nathan Martin (Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. Very helpful. Maybe just one more on CapEx and as it relates to what we're just talking about. I mean, if these reports, you know, come out, let's say with positive results, you know, is there a possibility the CapEx moves up in 2024? Or are we still, you know, a little bit ways off before we look to start spending more material amounts on that project?

Randall Atkins (Chairman and CEO)

You're talking about on our REEs or on met coal?

Nathan Martin (Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah, on REEs at the Brook Mine, exactly.

Randall Atkins (Chairman and CEO)

Yeah. Well, we have spent, you know, exceedingly modest amounts, sort of in the $3 million-$4 million range on our entire rare earth project to date. So, you can do the math on what kind of return that's generated for us, at least from a market value standpoint. So our CapEx relating to the mine out there really won't begin to kick in until 2025. And that is premised on the fact that we will come up with what is the appropriate processing technique that we will decide to pursue. We've got a lot of testing to do before we come up with that conclusion. And, you know, once we get to that point, again, just like we always do with any of our CapEx, we will give you plenty of guidance on what that looks like.

But I'm thinking not much CapEx, even in 2025. You know, I would look to more CapEx probably being in the outer years.

Nathan Martin (Equity Research Analyst)

Got it. Thanks, Randall. I'll leave it there. Very helpful, guys, and best of luck in 2024.

Randall Atkins (Chairman and CEO)

Thanks, Nate.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Mr. Atkins and the management team for any closing remarks.

Randall Atkins (Chairman and CEO)

Great. Well, as always, we appreciate everybody being on the line this morning. We look forward to catching up here in a few months, and thanks for your interest. Thanks very much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you, sir. This concludes today's conference call. We thank you all for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect your lines and have a wonderful day.