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MGM Resorts International (MGM)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 consolidated net revenues were $4.277B (-2% YoY) and Adjusted EPS was $0.69 vs $0.74 YoY; MGM delivered a significant EPS beat versus S&P Global consensus ($0.69 vs $0.447) but a slight revenue miss ($4.277B vs $4.284B). Bold beats/misses driven by Marriott channel strength, record occupancy/slot win, and insurance proceeds; revenue miss driven by tough Super Bowl comp depressing ADR. *
  • Las Vegas Strip achieved record Q1 occupancy (94%) and slot win (+7% YoY), with Marriott bookings accelerating; April was tracking to a record hotel month, supporting forward demand.
  • BetMGM venture reported a positive EBITDA of $22M and net revenue growth (+34% YoY) in Q1; MGM’s reported equity share remains a modest loss due to lagged recognition, but venture profitability is a clear positive inflection.
  • Capital returns accelerated: 15M shares repurchased in Q1 for $494M, and Board authorized a new $2B buyback; management continued repurchases into Q2, citing attractive implied multiples (~3.3x trailing domestic Adjusted EBITDA).

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record Strip occupancy and slot win: “April is on track to be a record hotel month for our Las Vegas Strip operations,” with Q1 occupancy 94% and slot win +7% YoY, supported by Marriott channel.
  • BetMGM inflection: venture EBITDA turned positive ($22M), with net revenues up 34% and iGaming +27%/online sports +68%, reflecting improved engagement and disciplined acquisition.
  • MGM China resilience and capital returns: margin discipline (28%) and dividend policy increased to 50% of distributable profits; continued large-scale buybacks reflect confidence in valuation.

What Went Wrong

  • Tough comp and ADR pressure: Las Vegas non-gaming revenue and ADR were down due to prior-year Super Bowl impact; Strip net revenues fell 3% YoY, and RevPAR declined 6%.
  • Digital drag ex-BetMGM: MGM Digital segment EBITDAR loss widened to -$34M (from -$19M) given strategic growth hiring and Brazil launch costs; regulatory headwinds in the Netherlands.
  • FX and non-operating volatility: large FX transaction losses (+$0.34 adjustment) and fair value hedging swings (-$0.14) were key drivers in non-GAAP EPS adjustments, adding noise to GAAP.

Financial Results

Consolidated Results vs Prior Quarters

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$4.183 $4.347 $4.277
Diluted EPS ($)$0.61 $0.52 $0.51
Adjusted EPS ($)$0.54 $0.45 $0.69
EBITDA Margin %13.52%*12.83%*15.19%*

Values with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Breakdown (Q1 YoY)

SegmentNet Revenues Q1 2024 ($USD Millions)Net Revenues Q1 2025 ($USD Millions)Segment Adjusted EBITDAR Q1 2024 ($USD Millions)Segment Adjusted EBITDAR Q1 2025 ($USD Millions)
Las Vegas Strip Resorts$2,255.0 $2,176.1 $827.8 $811.2 (incl. $37M insurance)
Regional Operations$909.5 $900.4 $274.1 $279.0 (incl. $12M insurance)
MGM China$1,056.0 $1,027.5 $301.2 $285.6
MGM Digital$127.6 $128.1 $(18.8) $(34.4)
Management & Other$35.3 $45.0 $15.9 $21.8
Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA——$673.2 $637.1

KPIs (Las Vegas)

KPIQ1 2024Q1 2025YoY Change
Occupancy (%)93% 94% +1 pt
ADR ($)$277 $257 -7%
RevPAR ($)$258 $242 -6%
Slot Win ($USD Millions)$511 $545 +7%
Table Games Drop ($USD Millions)$1,537 $1,511 -2%
Table Games Win ($USD Millions)$388 $404 +4%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
BetMGM Net Revenues from OperationsFY 2025Profitability expected in 2025; no range $2.4–$2.5B and positive EBITDA Specific range added; maintained profitability outlook
EBITDA Enhancement Program2025$200M run-rate program announced >$150M implemented in 2025 (35% revenue, 65% cost) Execution pace clarified; maintained program
MGM China Dividend PolicyOngoing35% of distributable profits 50% of distributable profits Raised
Share Repurchase AuthorizationOngoing$337M remaining under Nov-2023 plan as of 3/31/25 New $2B authorization in addition to existing plan Raised

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024 (Prev-2)Q4 2024 (Prev-1)Q1 2025 (Current)Trend
Las Vegas demand/MarriottSequential ADR/occupancy strength; Marriott license signed Strong bookings into 2025; record convention bookings Record April hotel month; 440k Bonvoy room nights booked through April; record Q1 occupancy/slot win Improving demand; Marriott accelerating mix
Digital/BetMGMBetMGM revenue growth ~20% YoY; Brazil venture announced BetMGM expected profitable in 2025 Positive EBITDA ($22M); net revenues +34%, iGaming +27%, online sports +68% Inflecting to profitability
China/MacauRecords in net revenue/EBITDAR; recovery post restrictions Record full-year China EBITDAR; dividend flow Stable share (~15.7%); dividend policy raised to 50% Healthy margins; shareholder returns increasing
Capital returns~$326M Q3 buybacks; YTD ~$1.3B 33M shares in 2024; $1.4B 15M shares ($494M) Q1; new $2B authorization; continued into Q2 Aggressive buybacks sustained
Tech/AI & operations——More digital interaction; growing AI use in guest services; labor efficiency (FTEs down) Efficiency initiatives scaling
Tariffs/macro——Minimal operational impact; managed consumables/tech purchases Monitored; contained
Development (Japan/New York/Dubai)Japan pipeline; Brazil digital JV Positivity on pipeline Japan equity JPY 428B; hedged >50% through mid-2027; NY submission end-June; Dubai hotel progressing; gaming optionality Advancing milestones

Management Commentary

  • “April is on track to be a record hotel month for our Las Vegas Strip operations.” — CEO Bill Hornbuckle
  • “We now believe we fully can implement more than $150 million in 2025” from the $200M EBITDA enhancement plan. — CEO Bill Hornbuckle
  • “We repurchased nearly 15 million shares for about $494 million in the first quarter, and…have Board approval…to repurchase another $2 billion of shares.” — CFO Jonathan Halkyard
  • “BetMGM…reported positive $22 million of EBITDA…reflect the strong execution against the strategy and the start of its returns.” — CFO Jonathan Halkyard
  • “MGM China increased its dividend policy to 50% of distributable profits, up from 35%.” — CFO Jonathan Halkyard

Q&A Highlights

  • Las Vegas April KPIs: record month driven by occupancy, rate, groups/events, and Marriott channel (>20k Bonvoy room nights per week).
  • Cost discipline/AI: FTEs down across regions/Strip/corporate; expanding digital interfaces (concierge/call centers), with growing AI use improving productivity.
  • Insurance proceeds: business interruption proceeds excluded from revenue, included in EBITDAR; >$100M collected over ~6 months; remaining claims lumpy and smaller.
  • Development funding and buybacks: share repurchases may moderate to reserve capital for Japan/NY; willing to let leverage tick up modestly to fund opportunities.
  • Macau demand/tariffs: bookings resilient, Golden Week strong; tariff impacts minimal to operations and development plans near-term.

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025 vs S&P Global consensus: Adjusted EPS $0.69 vs $0.447 estimate (beat); Revenue $4.277B vs $4.284B estimate (slight miss).*
  • Prior quarters: Q4 2024 Adjusted EPS $0.45 vs $0.338 estimate (beat); Revenue $4.382B vs $4.267B estimate (beat). Q3 2024 Adjusted EPS $0.54 vs $0.607 estimate (miss); Revenue $4.183B vs $4.206B estimate (miss).*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

MetricQ3 2024 EstimateQ3 2024 ActualQ4 2024 EstimateQ4 2024 ActualQ1 2025 EstimateQ1 2025 Actual
Primary EPS Consensus Mean ($)0.607*0.54 0.338*0.45 0.447*0.69
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD Billions)4.206*4.183 4.267*4.382 4.284*4.277

Values with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Strong operating signals in Las Vegas (record April, record Q1 occupancy/slot win) support near-term stability despite ADR headwinds from Super Bowl comps; watch Marriott mix and late booking window.
  • BetMGM’s positive EBITDA and revenue acceleration are a meaningful pivot; monitor sustainability through seasonality and continued efficiency in acquisition/engagement.
  • Capital return is a core pillar: new $2B buyback authorization and continued repurchases into Q2; near-term cadence may moderate to fund Japan/NY, but management remains opportunistic.
  • China cash returns improving via dividend policy at 50%; margins holding ~28% amid market ramp and new premium room additions in pipeline.
  • Non-GAAP adjustments (FX/hedges) materially impact Adjusted EPS; isolate core performance via Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA and Strip/Regional EBITDAR to reduce noise.
  • Insurance proceeds buoyed EBITDAR ($37M Strip; $12M Regional); future recoveries likely lumpy and smaller — normalize for valuation and trend analysis.
  • Near-term catalysts: Marriott production (including groups), robust event calendar, NY submission end-June, Osaka project milestones, and ongoing buybacks; stock narrative tied to demand resilience and capital allocation.

Appendix: Additional Data and Reconciliations

  • Q1 2025 Consolidated Statements (selected lines): Revenue $4,277.1M; Net income attributable $148.6M; Diluted EPS $0.51; Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA $637.1M.
  • Adjusted EPS reconciliation drivers (Q1 2025): FX transaction loss +$0.34; fair value of FX contracts -$0.14; loss/gain on debt/equity investments -$0.12; property transactions +$0.05; tax impact +$0.05.

Notes:

  • BetMGM venture results are recorded with a one-month lag in MGM’s equity method reporting; venture-level EBITDA was positive ($22M), while MGM’s share of unconsolidated affiliates shows a modest loss in Q1 given timing/mix.
  • Strip/Regional EBITDAR included business interruption insurance proceeds ($37M Strip; $12M Regional).