MR
MGM Resorts International (MGM)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q4 2024 consolidated net revenues were $4.35B (-1% YoY), diluted EPS was $0.52, and Adjusted EPS was $0.45; Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA was $0.53B. Las Vegas declined on tough comps (F1 and high-end baccarat hold), while Regional and MGM China grew; MGM Digital expanded revenue but remained loss-making .
- December set MGM’s highest convention booking month on record; January delivered record occupancy (94%), ADR strength and record slot metrics, supporting a constructive 2025 setup .
- BetMGM expects 2025 net revenues of $2.4–$2.5B with EBITDA turning positive (~$250M YoY improvement), while MGM Digital’s 2025 EBITDAR losses are expected to be similar to 2024 as Brazil launches and platform integration progress .
- Management highlighted two 2025 headwinds: Super Bowl lap (~$65M YoY impact) and MGM Grand room renovation (similar magnitude), offset by operational initiatives targeting ~$150M EBITDA capture in 2025 and aggressive share repurchases ($121M in Q4; ~$300M in Jan-2025) .
- Wall Street consensus estimates from S&P Global were unavailable due to a data access limit; beat/miss vs estimates cannot be assessed at this time (consensus unavailable).
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Regional Operations: Net revenues +7% YoY to $0.93B and Segment Adjusted EBITDAR +21% YoY to $281M, aided by Detroit recovery and disciplined operating execution .
- MGM China: Net revenues +4% YoY to $1.02B; management affirmed sustainable mid-teens market share and reported strong Chinese New Year traffic and volumes into 2025 .
- Demand/Bookings Momentum: December was the highest convention booking month ever; January set records for occupancy (94%), slot handle, slot win, and restaurant revenue; ADR is trending mid-single-digit growth ex-February .
- Management quote: “December was our highest convention booking month on record, and in January we saw revenue growth in our Las Vegas Strip Resorts and Regional Operations as well as strong future bookings” — Bill Hornbuckle .
What Went Wrong
- Las Vegas comps: Strip net revenues fell 6% YoY to $2.22B and Segment Adjusted EBITDAR fell 11% YoY to $765M, reflecting lapping extraordinary F1-driven results and high-end baccarat variability last year .
- Consolidated earnings compression: Net income to MGM fell to $157M (vs $313M YoY); Adjusted EPS down to $0.45 (vs $1.06 YoY) on FX, investment marks, and non-operating items called out in the reconciliation .
- BetMGM contribution: MGM’s share of unconsolidated affiliates swung to a loss of -$39.3M in Q4 (incl. BetMGM -$42.3M), after a positive $8.0M in Q3; near-term investments continue ahead of 2025 profitability .
Financial Results
Consolidated Financials vs Prior Quarters
Note: Q2/Q3 report Adjusted EBITDAR; Q4 reports Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA after MGM updated disclosures .
Segment Net Revenues ($USD Billions)
MGM Digital (new segment in Q4): Net revenues $0.140B and Segment Adjusted EBITDAR loss of $22M .
Segment Adjusted EBITDAR ($USD Millions)
Las Vegas Strip – Hotel KPIs
Las Vegas Strip – Casino KPIs
Regional Operations – Casino KPIs
MGM China – Main Floor KPIs
Unconsolidated Affiliates – Operating Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)
Guidance Changes
Dividend note: MGM China paid ~US$200M to MGM in 2024 (special + ordinary dividends); continuation is expected but not quantified for 2025 .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “MGM Resorts is proud to report the best full-year consolidated net revenues in the history of the Company… December was our highest convention booking month on record” — Bill Hornbuckle .
- “We expect to capture approximately $150 million of [operational EBITDA] in calendar 2025… roughly 35% revenue actions and 65% expense” — Jonathan Halkyard .
- “BetMGM… net revenues… growing to a range of $2.4 billion to $2.5 billion and EBITDA inflecting positive… an increase of approximately $250 million year-over-year” — Bill Hornbuckle .
- “January… occupancy at 94%, ADR record, slot handle record, restaurant revenue record” — Jonathan Halkyard .
- “We will continue to be aggressive in our share buyback program… our core business is trading at ~4x 2024 adjusted EBITDA” — Bill Hornbuckle .
Q&A Highlights
- Las Vegas revenue initiatives and demand: Tens of millions of revenue actions implemented in Dec; January “anything but flat,” with records in key metrics; ADR mid-single-digit ex-Feb .
- Super Bowl and F1 lap: Super Bowl impact ~$65M YoY; renovation headwind similar; aim to offset through programs and organic growth; F1 still a good weekend but rooms/yield lower vs inaugural year .
- MGM Grand renovation ROI: New rooms and conversion to suites expected to lift ADR and casino economics; quantification pending, early customer response positive .
- Promotions and slot strategy: Promotional investment level unchanged; slot strength driven by product mix and high-limit investments (ARIA, MGM Grand, Bellagio underway) .
- Taxes/regulatory: Concerns about state tax hikes (e.g., Maryland) addressed through dialogue; digital tax regime monitored, deemed manageable .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global (Capital IQ) Wall Street consensus data for the latest quarter was unavailable due to access limits; we cannot determine beat/miss vs consensus at this time.
- Given the lack of numeric guidance and tough Las Vegas comps (F1/baccarat), we expect sell-side models to reflect Q4 YoY pressure in Las Vegas, with offsets from Regional and MGM China, and to incorporate 2025 initiatives (operational EBITDA capture, BetMGM profitability) .
- Consensus unavailable (S&P Global data access limit).
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Q4 was a consolidation quarter on tough comps; underlying demand is strong heading into 2025 (record bookings and January operational records), supporting ADR and occupancy resilience .
- Expect near-term 2025 headwinds (Super Bowl lap; MGM Grand renovation) to be counterbalanced by ~$150M operational EBITDA capture and ongoing pricing/yield initiatives .
- BetMGM’s 2025 profitability inflection and MGM Digital’s platform launch cadence (own OSB, Brazil) are material medium-term catalysts; watch for contribution swing as investments taper .
- Regional operations remain stable free cash generators with disciplined costs and rational promotions; Detroit recovery adds incremental support .
- Macau’s premium mass strategy is delivering sustainable mid-teens share; non-gaming initiatives (resident show, museum) support visitation and margin durability into 2025 .
- Share repurchases are a key capital allocation lever given management’s valuation view; ~$121M in Q4 and ~$300M in Jan-2025 signal continued aggressiveness .
- Narrative drivers: watch Marriott/Bonvoy room production, group pace, high-limit slot investments, ADR trajectory ex-February, and BI proceeds timing; these factors will influence quarterly cadence and sentiment .
Additional Relevant Q4 2024 Press Releases
- W Las Vegas debut at Mandalay Bay (formerly Delano Tower) — enhances Marriott distribution and brand recognition .
- Las Vegas Grand Prix operational readiness and programming — context for November comps and event approach .
Cross-References and Non-GAAP Notes
- Adjusted EPS reconciliation for Q4 highlights FX and fair value changes as key non-operating drivers (e.g., FX loss -$0.52/share; fair value of FX contracts +$0.34/share) .
- Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA vs prior quarters’ Adjusted EBITDAR reflects updated reporting; FY 2024 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA was ~$2.41B (incl. $461M non-cash rent) .