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MIDDLEBY Corp (MIDD)·Q2 2026 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2026 source documents are not yet available. The latest complete quarter is Q2 2025 (press release and full earnings call on Aug 6, 2025). This recap synthesizes Q2 2025 results and the prior two quarters for trajectory and updates guidance provided in Q2 2025. If you need Q2 2026 when it posts, I will update immediately.
  • Q2 2025 delivered small beats vs consensus on revenue and EPS, but yoy declines amid tariff headwinds and large-chain QSR softness; management reiterated confidence with aggressive buybacks and detailed offset plan for tariffs by FY26 start. Revenue $977.9M vs $974.9M consensus; Adjusted EPS $2.35 vs $2.23*; Adjusted EBITDA $200.2M (20.5%). [Values retrieved from S&P Global]
  • Guidance introduced for Q3 and FY25: Q3 revenue $950–$975M, Adj. EBITDA $185–$195M, Adj. EPS $2.04–$2.19; FY25 revenue $3.81–$3.87B, Adj. EBITDA $770–$800M, Adj. EPS $8.65–$9.05 (sum-of-quarters). Interest expense stepping up in H2 as converts are refinanced.
  • Stock reaction: shares traded lower on the day as investors focused on revenue trajectory and tariff impacts despite EPS beat, with notable pre-market weakness reported around the print.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Share repurchases accelerated: $322.7M in Q2 (3.1M shares through July; 5.7% of equity YTD) and continued into July ($97M), signaling confidence and EPS leverage. “We chose to allocate the vast majority of our free cash flow toward share repurchases…” (CEO).
    • Food Processing sequential recovery with strong pipeline; EBITDA >21% despite headwinds. CFO: “Q2 revenue exceeding $216,000,000 and an EBITDA margin of over 21%... order trends have been improving… backlog is also growing.”
    • Clear tariff-mitigation roadmap (pricing and supply chain) expected to fully offset by start of FY26; detailed quarterly headwind cadence provided.

  • What Went Wrong

    • Tariffs pressured margins and demand, particularly outdoor Residential, with ~$10M net Q2 EBITDA headwind; Q3 expected to see $10–$15M net headwind.
    • Large QSR customer weakness: lower traffic, cost pressure, new store pipeline pushed into 2026; weighing on Commercial volumes despite strong margin execution.
    • Consolidated yoy declines: Net sales -1.4% yoy; Adjusted EBITDA -7.5% yoy; Operating income down yoy amid higher SG&A and restructuring.

Financial Results

Performance vs prior periods (oldest → newest)

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($M)$1,013.9 $906.6 $977.9
GAAP Diluted EPS$2.07 $1.69 $1.99
Adjusted EPS$2.88 $2.08 $2.35
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$251.2 $182.1 $200.2
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %24.8% 20.1% 20.5%
Operating Cash Flow ($M)$239.7 $141.1 $122.0
Free Cash Flow ($M)$229.1 $107.4 $101.1

Consensus vs actual (Q2 2025)

MetricQ2 2025 ConsensusQ2 2025 ActualSurprise
Revenue ($M)$974.9*$977.9 +$3.0M (beat)
Primary EPS ($/shr)$2.23*$2.35 +$0.12 (beat)

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment breakdown (Q2 2025)

SegmentNet Sales ($M)Adj. EBITDA ($M)Adj. EBITDA %
Commercial Foodservice$580.6 $156.5 27.0%
Residential Kitchen$181.1 $18.6 10.3%
Food Processing$216.2 $45.8 21.2%
Total Company$977.9 $200.2 20.5%

Select KPIs and balance sheet (Q2 2025)

KPIQ2 2025
Net leverage (credit agreement)2.3x
Net debt~$1.9B
Borrowing availability~$2.7B
Share repurchases$322.7M in Q2; $448.9M through July; 3.1M shares in Q2; 5.7% of equity YTD

Non-GAAP adjustments (Q2 2025)

ItemAmount ($000)Per Share
Amortization17,1920.32
Restructuring2,2880.04
Acquisition-related adj.(2,334)(0.04)
Facility consolidation1,4210.03
Net periodic pension (non-service)(1,580)(0.03)
Strategic transaction costs6,7880.13
Tax effect of adjustments(5,825)(0.11)
Adjusted diluted shares52,643—

Guidance Changes

Note: Numeric guidance was first provided in Q2 2025; prior explicit guidance not disclosed in Q1 2025.

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Total RevenueQ3 2025n/a$950–$975M New
Commercial RevenueQ3 2025n/a$580–$590M New
Residential RevenueQ3 2025n/a$170–$180M New
Food Processing RevenueQ3 2025n/a$195–$205M New
Adjusted EBITDAQ3 2025n/a$185–$195M New
Adjusted EPSQ3 2025n/a$2.04–$2.19 New
Total RevenueFY 2025n/a$3.81–$3.87B New
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2025n/a$770–$800M New
Adjusted EPS (sum of quarters)FY 2025n/a$8.65–$9.05 New
Interest ExpenseQ3 2025n/a$23–$25M New
Interest ExpenseQ4 2025n/a$28–$30M New
Dividendn/an/aNone mentioned—

Tariff headwind cadence: Q2 ~$10M net; Q3 $10–$15M net; Q4 $5–$10M net; fully offset expected by FY26 start via pricing and operating initiatives.

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ4 2024 (Q-2)Q1 2025 (Q-1)Q2 2025 (Current)Trend
AI/Technology/IoTOpen Kitchen platform and controls push; awards; innovation cadence highlighted. Continued IoT/automation focus; innovation showcased at NAFEM. Connectivity cited in wins; Middleby One Touch control; energy mgmt; beverage automation pipeline. Strengthening adoption, broader portfolio integration
Supply chainCost and inventory actions drove record FCF; near-shoring and supplier diversification. Continued progress; decentralized model supports resilience. Supply chain as main lever to offset tariffs; re-sourcing to non-tariff markets. Positive; key lever for tariff mitigation
Tariffs/MacroNo quantified tariff impact yet; outlook cautiously improving by segment. Initial estimated annual tariff cost $150–$200M; offset by year-end via pricing/ops. Refined to ~$150M annual; quantified quarterly net impacts; full offset by FY26 start. Greater clarity; path to neutral by FY26
Product performance (Beverage/Ice)Building beverage platform amid innovation; strong Food Processing margins. Innovation launches (NRA/NAFEM) underpin outgrowth. Beverage seen as transformational; chain interest rising; pipeline building into 2026–27. Expanding opportunity set
Regional trendsInternational growth cited in Q4; Europe traction. Residential improving U.S./UK indoor; housing trough narrative. Germany MIK opening; Europe momentum; U.S. Residential indoor up, outdoor pressured. Mixed: Europe improving, U.S. outdoor soft
Regulatory/legalSpin-off of Food Processing as tax-free transaction; board refresh. Spin timeline H1’26; minimal dis-synergies due to decentralization. Spin still targeted H1’26; Investor Day timing shifting closer to spin. On track

Management Commentary

  • “We’re delivering strong operational performance… While these quarterly results reflect our market conditions, they don’t appropriately capture the fundamental transformation… to drive long-term growth.” (CEO)
  • “We currently estimate that the incremental [tariff] cost impact will be approximately $150,000,000 on an annualized basis… expect a $10–$15 million net negative impact to EBITDA in Q3… [and] $5–$10 million in Q4.” (CFO)
  • “Large QSR customers [face] lower traffic and cost pressures… new store pipeline… pushed out… more into 2026.” (CCO)
  • “We repurchased over 2,200,000 shares for nearly $323,000,000… and continued in July with $97,000,000.” (CFO)

Q&A Highlights

  • Tariff impact and offsets: net headwind Q3 $10–$15M, Q4 $5–$10M; offsets via pricing and supply chain re-sourcing toward non-tariff markets and cost reductions.
  • QSR and Commercial outlook: traffic and cost pressures at large chains pushing new store openings to 2026; however, Middleby gaining share and approvals across more products, especially beverage/ice categories.
  • Food Processing momentum: book-to-bill >1, backlog growing; active M&A pipeline to support spin.
  • Capital allocation: accelerated buybacks favored over near-term larger M&A in CFS; focus on executing spin and organic initiatives; interest expense to rise in H2 post convert repayment/refi.

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 actuals vs consensus: Revenue $977.9M vs $974.9M* (beat), Primary EPS $2.35 vs $2.23* (beat). Adjusted EBITDA $200.2M not directly compared to consensus.
  • Revision implications: Quantified tariff cadence and segment guidance likely prompt modest near-term EPS trimming for Q3 but support FY trajectory within guidance as offsets ramp in Q4 and into FY26. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • EPS durability despite macro/tariffs: Clear quarterly tariff headwind path with full offset by FY26 start; continued mix/automation benefits and pricing underpin medium-term margin resilience.
  • Commercial under-earning vs potential: QSR deferrals mask share gains and wider product approvals; watch for pipeline conversion in 2026 with beverage/ice and connected equipment as catalysts.
  • Food Processing as a value unlock: Sequential rebound, improving orders/backlog, and an active M&A pipeline ahead of H1’26 spin create potential multiple re-rating dynamics.
  • Capital returns are material: ~$449M repurchased through July with authorization remaining; reduced float increases EPS leverage as fundamentals normalize.
  • Near-term trading setup: Q3 guide embeds tariff headwinds and seasonal step-down; Q4 guide points to strongest quarter of the year—watch execution on pricing/supply chain and interest expense progression.
  • Monitor Residential mix: Indoor premium brands improving; outdoor pressured by tariffs/inventory; consolidation and Michigan center-of-excellence should enhance margins into 2026.

If you’d like, I will refresh this recap immediately when Q2 2026 8-K and the call transcript are published.