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AG Mortgage Investment Trust, Inc. (MITT)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 delivered a clean beat on Street EAD EPS and revenue as MITT executed four securitizations, tightened credit spreads, increased book value to $10.46, and expanded Arc Home ownership to 66%; EAD per diluted share was $0.23 vs consensus $0.20 and revenue was $30.2M vs consensus $20.0M, driven by stronger net interest income and other income from spread tightening *.
  • GAAP diluted EPS rose to $0.47 (YoY +18%) on higher other income and stable expense control; quarterly economic ROE was 2.7%, and total liquidity stood at $104.2M .
  • Dividend was maintained at $0.21/share, while leverage remained largely non-mark-to-market; GAAP leverage 14.9x and Economic leverage 1.7x, consistent with the securitization-centric financing mix .
  • Catalysts: accelerating Arc Home contribution ($0.03 EAD/share), ongoing programmatic securitizations, rotation out of legacy WMC assets, and credit spread tailwinds; watch the commercial legacy resolution timeline (hotel sale now targeted 1H 2026) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “We increased book value, supported our dividend, and furthered our strategic growth with an expanded stake in Arc Home. Our core portfolio and operational efficiencies drove strong earnings, with Arc Home now contributing meaningfully to EAD.” — T.J. Durkin, CEO .
  • Strong securitization and equity rotation: four securitizations executed; replacing high-cost legacy WMC financing returned ~$55M for reinvestment; unrealized gains from credit spread tightening boosted results .
  • Arc Home contribution stepped up: record non-agency lock volumes, improved gain-on-sale margins, and $0.03 EAD/share contribution to MITT; ownership increased to 66% .

What Went Wrong

  • Legacy WMC commercial headwinds persisted: retail property loan recorded an unrealized loss of $7.1M in Q3 and placed on cost recovery; hotel loans are on non-accrual with resolution deferred to 1H 2026 .
  • Elevated GAAP leverage remains a structural feature of securitized financing (14.9x), though Economic leverage is low (1.7x); funding cost blended at ~5.4% leaves limited NIM (0.7%) .
  • Q2 context: EAD missed consensus and was impacted by legacy WMC commercial loans; highlights sensitivity to legacy asset marks and timing of resolutions *.

Financial Results

P&L vs Prior Year and Prior Quarter

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$26.0 $15.0 $30.2
Diluted EPS (GAAP, $)$0.40 $(0.05) $0.47
EAD per Diluted Share (Non-GAAP, $)N/A$0.18 $0.23
Net Interest Margin %N/A0.6% 0.7%
Economic ROE %N/A(0.5)% 2.7%

Notes: Revenue equals Total Net Interest Income + Total Other Income/Loss. EAD is non-GAAP Earnings Available for Distribution per diluted share.

Results vs S&P Global Consensus

MetricQ2 2025 ActualQ2 2025 ConsensusQ3 2025 ActualQ3 2025 Consensus
Revenue ($USD Millions)$15.039 $21.022*$30.211 $20.046*
Primary EPS (EAD/share, $)$0.18 $0.230*$0.23 $0.198*

Interpretation: Q3 revenue beat by ~$10.2M (+51%) and EAD/share beat by ~$0.03 (+16%); Q2 missed on both revenue and EAD/share. Values with asterisk retrieved from S&P Global*.

Segment and Portfolio Composition (Q3 2025)

CategoryAsset FMV ($MM)Yield %Cost of Funds %Equity ($MM)ROE %
Securitized Non-Agency Loans$7,142.7 5.8 5.3 $234.0 19.6
Securitized Home Equity Loans$1,007.9 7.7 5.8 $77.3 29.4
Securitized RPL/NPL Loans$138.4 6.0 4.0 $14.6 26.7
Home Equity Loans$129.0 7.9 5.7 $69.4 9.7
Agency-Eligible & Other Loans$97.6 6.2 4.8 $7.7 21.5
Non-Agency RMBS$161.0 9.6 4.9 $62.9 15.9
Agency RMBS (IO)$16.5 7.7 4.6 $5.5 14.7
Legacy WMC Commercial Loans$57.7 7.2 $30.3 (6.5)
Legacy WMC CMBS$40.7 17.5 5.6 $23.4 29.7
Total Investment Portfolio$8,791.5 6.1 5.43 $525.1 18.6

KPIs

KPIQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Book Value per Share ($)$10.65 $10.39 $10.46
Total Equity ($MM)$543.9 $536.4 $559.8
Liquidity ($MM)$132.5 $89.7 $104.2
GAAP Leverage (x)12.4x 12.8x 14.9x
Economic Leverage (x)1.6x 1.3x 1.7x
Net Interest Income ($MM)$19.6 $17.8 $19.5
Dividend per Common Share ($)$0.20 $0.21 $0.21
Arc Home EAD Contribution (per share, $)$0.00–$0.02 range $(0.00)–$(0.01) $0.03

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Common Dividend ($/share)Quarterly$0.21 in Q2 2025 $0.21 declared in Q3 2025 Maintained
Arc Home Impact on EADFY 2026Expected accretive to EAD in 2026; ~2% BV dilution Reinforced strategic expansion; $0.03 EAD/share contribution in Q3; ownership now 66% Positive execution evidence; no numeric 2026 update
Legacy WMC Hotel Loans ResolutionTimingTargeting resolution by year-end 2025 Pursuing consensual sale, expected completion in 1H 2026 Lowered (timeline extended)
Financing ProfileOngoingPredominantly term, non mark-to-market securitized debt Same; GAAP leverage higher, Economic leverage low Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Transcript was not available in the document catalog; themes below are derived from Q1–Q3 earnings presentations and press releases.

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 2025)Previous Mentions (Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
Programmatic Non-Agency SecuritizationExecuted multiple deals; 915.1M UPB securitized; focus on high-quality borrowers Over $2B UPB YTD across 5 transactions; continued rotation into residential; replacing WMC financing Four securitizations in Q3; $1.7B UPB; equity rotation from WMC boosted earnings Strengthening
Arc Home Origination & ContributionBreakeven and improving EAD; 1.0B lock volume; MITT purchases $61.0M UPB 1.2B lock volume; ownership increase announced; accretive in 2026 Record non-agency locks; improved margins; $0.03 EAD/share contribution; 66% ownership Improving
Credit Spread/MarksBenefited from unrealized gains and stable net interest income Q2 impacted by April volatility; mark-to-market losses Credit spread tightening generated unrealized gains in Q3 Positive
Leverage & LiquidityEconomic leverage 1.6x; liquidity $132.5M Economic leverage 1.3x; liquidity $89.7M Economic leverage 1.7x; liquidity $104.2M Mixed (higher economic leverage, better liquidity)
Legacy WMC CommercialMaturities approaching; borrowers current; potential forbearance Headwinds; targeting year-end resolution; equity ~13% exposure Retail unrealized loss $7.1M; hotel sale now 1H 2026; exposure ~9.6% of equity Deteriorating timeline

Management Commentary

  • “We increased book value, supported our dividend, and furthered our strategic growth with an expanded stake in Arc Home. Our core portfolio and operational efficiencies drove strong earnings, with Arc Home now contributing meaningfully to EAD.” — T.J. Durkin, CEO .
  • Strategy emphasized liquidity, disciplined securitization, leverage management, and a credit-first portfolio construction, positioning MITT as a pure-play residential mortgage REIT .
  • Execution highlights: $20.2M net interest income, $1.7B loans purchased/securitized, replacement of high-cost WMC financing returning ~$55M for reinvestment, and increased Arc Home stake with fairness opinion by KBW .

Q&A Highlights

The Q3 2025 earnings call transcript was not available in the document catalog. As a result, specific Q&A highlights and tone shifts cannot be provided from primary sources.

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 beats: Revenue $30.211M vs $20.046M consensus; Primary EPS (EAD/share) $0.23 vs $0.198 consensus; drivers were higher net interest income and other income from credit spread tightening and Arc Home’s contribution *.
  • Q2 2025 misses: Revenue $15.039M vs $21.022M consensus; EAD/share $0.18 vs $0.230 consensus; driven by legacy WMC commercial marks and lower other income *.
  • Coverage depth: 4–5 estimates for revenue/EPS in Q2–Q3 indicates reasonable analyst participation for a mid-cap mortgage REIT*.

Values marked with an asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q3 delivered a high-quality beat on both EAD/share and revenue; strength was broad-based, with securitization flow, spread tailwinds, and Arc Home contribution as key drivers *.
  • Book value per share increased to $10.46 despite Arc Home share issuance dilution (~1.8%), underlining earnings power and mark-to-market tailwinds .
  • Financing profile remains predominantly term, non mark-to-market securitized debt; monitor GAAP leverage (14.9x) vs low economic leverage (1.7x) for risk appetite and capacity to scale .
  • Arc Home is now a material strategic lever: record locks, improved margins, and a $0.03 EAD/share contribution in Q3; continued expansion can support EAD trajectory into 2026 .
  • Legacy WMC commercial exposure is small but still a swing factor; retail unrealized loss and extended hotel resolution timeline (1H 2026) warrant caution on near-term volatility .
  • Dividend stability ($0.21/share) appears supported by Q3 EAD ($0.23/share), but future payout sustainability hinges on credit spreads, securitization volume, and Arc Home profitability .
  • Trading implications: positive narrative around Arc Home and securitization cadence; watch for any spread widening or commercial marks that could reverse “other income” tailwinds and pressure EAD/Book .
Sources:
Q3 2025 press release & 8-K: **[1514281_0001628280-25-048517_a8k-9302025xexhibit991.htm:0]** **[1514281_0001628280-25-048517_a8k-9302025xexhibit991.htm:3]** **[1514281_0001628280-25-048517_a8k-9302025xexhibit991.htm:5]** **[1514281_0001628280-25-048517_q32025earningspresentati.htm:3]** **[1514281_0001628280-25-048517_q32025earningspresentati.htm:4]** **[1514281_0001628280-25-048517_q32025earningspresentati.htm:5]** **[1514281_0001628280-25-048517_q32025earningspresentati.htm:7]** **[1514281_0001628280-25-048517_q32025earningspresentati.htm:9]**
Q3 2025 earnings press release (duplicate content): **[1514281_1efa2d4864194fd2a5b707cfa5a19aae_0]** **[1514281_1efa2d4864194fd2a5b707cfa5a19aae_4]** **[1514281_1efa2d4864194fd2a5b707cfa5a19aae_5]**
Q2 2025 8-K & presentation: **[1514281_0001514281-25-000083_a8k-6302025xexhibit991.htm:0]** **[1514281_0001514281-25-000083_q22025earningspresentati.htm:4]** **[1514281_0001514281-25-000083_q22025earningspresentati.htm:5]** **[1514281_0001514281-25-000083_q22025earningspresentati.htm:7]** **[1514281_0001514281-25-000083_q22025earningspresentati.htm:9]** **[1514281_0001514281-25-000083_q22025earningspresentati.htm:10]**
Q1 2025 8-K & presentation: **[1514281_0001514281-25-000056_a8k-3312025xexhibit991.htm:0]** **[1514281_0001514281-25-000056_q12025earningspresentati.htm:3]** **[1514281_0001514281-25-000056_q12025earningspresentati.htm:4]** **[1514281_0001514281-25-000056_q12025earningspresentati.htm:6]** **[1514281_0001514281-25-000056_q12025earningspresentati.htm:7]** **[1514281_0001514281-25-000056_q12025earningspresentati.htm:9]**
Estimates: S&P Global consensus via GetEstimates*