Executive Summary

Q4 2022 showed modest revenue ($0.12M) and continued operating losses, with adjusted EBITDA improving sequentially to $(15.55)M from $(16.11)M in Q3; management emphasized operational progress (Vigoride 5 launched January 2023, Vigoride 6 targeted April 2023) and government contract focus .
Backlog declined to $33M at year-end from $43M (Oct) and $55M (July) as options expired/cancellations occurred; firm contracted backlog remained steady, while the commercial pipeline and government interest (NASA/DoD) strengthened .
Liquidity stood at $61.1M non‑restricted cash and cash equivalents with gross term debt ~~$15M; management believes liquidity is sufficient for the next 12 months and highlighted lower monthly cash burn exiting Q4 (~~$6.8M vs $8–9M in 1H) .
Near‑term stock reaction catalysts: validation of MET propulsion in space (Vigoride 5), successful Vigoride 6 launch in April 2023 with NASA payloads, and further government contract wins; new FCC de‑orbit rule is a structural tailwind for in‑orbit services .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Operational execution improved: Vigoride 5 launched Jan 2023, commissioning progressing with arrays deployed, attitude determination and propulsion system pressurized; fewer non‑conformances and faster assembly/testing on Vigoride 6 (45% fewer vs Vigoride 5) .
Strategic positioning: growing government focus (NASA LLITED mission on Vigoride 6; active dialogues with Space Force/SDA/DARPA), plus hosted payload capabilities demonstrated with Caltech on Vigoride 5 .
Cost discipline and liquidity: adjusted EBITDA improved sequentially; management lowered monthly cash burn to ~$6.8M exiting Q4 and repaid debt, while securing $10M equity to settle a $10M founders’ share repurchase obligation .

What Went Wrong

Backlog contracted: potential revenue backlog fell to $33M at year‑end from $43M (Oct) and $55M (July) driven by option expirations/cancellations; revenue remains de minimis ($0.12M in Q4) .
Continued operating losses: Q4 loss from operations of $(21.09)M and GAAP net loss of $(24.44)M; non‑GAAP SG&A and R&D remain elevated given continued development .
Launch schedule shift: Vigoride 6 now targeted for April 2023 versus prior guidance targeting February; backlog declines partly reflect execution timing and option expirations .

Financial Results

Metric	Q2 2022	Q3 2022	Q4 2022
Revenue ($USD Thousands)	$50	$129	$120
Gross Profit ($USD Thousands)	$38	$115	$120
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Thousands)	$23,757	$21,755	$21,212
Loss from Operations ($USD Thousands)	$(23,719)	$(21,640)	$(21,092)
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)	$(0.28)	$(0.26)	$(0.30)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Thousands)	$(18,154)	$(16,113)	$(15,550)
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Thousands)	$109,052	$81,570	$61,094

Q4 YoY comparatives:

Metric	Q4 2021	Q4 2022
Revenue ($USD Thousands)	$0	$120
Loss from Operations ($USD Thousands)	$(24,677)	$(21,092)
GAAP Diluted EPS ($USD)	$(0.03)	$(0.30)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Thousands)	$(16,408)	$(15,550)

Segment breakdown: Service revenue only, no segment reporting .

KPIs and balance sheet highlights:

KPI	Q2 2022	Q3 2022	Q4 2022
Backlog (Potential Revenue, $USD Millions)	$55 (as of Jul 31)	$43 (as of Oct 31)	$33 (as of Dec 31)
Satellites Deployed (Cumulative)	7 (6 via Vigoride 3 + 1 third-party)	8 total; 7 via Vigoride 3	8 total deployed
Gross Debt ($USD Millions)	~$21	~$18	~ $15

Non‑GAAP operating spend:

Metric	Q2 2022	Q3 2022	Q4 2022
Non-GAAP SG&A ($USD Thousands)	$8,094	$6,726	$6,166
Non-GAAP R&D ($USD Thousands)	$10,382	$9,796	$9,773

Notes: Adjusted EBITDA and non‑GAAP SG&A/R&D exclude stock‑based comp, legal/compliance, mark‑to‑market warrant changes, and other non‑recurring items per reconciliations .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Vigoride 6 launch (Transporter‑7)	1H 2023	Targeted February 2023	Targeted April 2023	Lowered (schedule delay)
Backlog (Potential Revenue)	FY2022 YE vs Oct 2022	$43M (Oct 31)	$33M (Dec 31)	Lowered (options expired/cancellations)
Liquidity runway	Forward 12 months	Runway through end of 2023	Sufficient liquidity for next 12 months	Maintained/clarified
Gross Debt	FY2022 vs Q3 2022	~$18M (term loan)	~ $15M (term loan)	Lowered

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 & Q3)	Current Period (Q4)	Trend
MET propulsion readiness	Ground hot fire testing; MET upgrade on Block 2.2; plan to fully test in space	Commissioning complete steps; MET to be tested in coming weeks; success criteria (startup sequence, altitude/inclination changes) detailed	Advancing from ground to in‑space validation
Hosted payloads	Caltech SSPP hosted payload planned on Vigoride 5	Hosting Caltech payload on Vigoride 5 in orbit; highlighting power/flexibility advantages	Validating differentiation
Government business	Began bidding; NASA LLITED contract modification; targeting DoD/NASA funding	Active dialogues with Space Force/SDA/DARPA; NASA payloads on Vigoride 6	Strengthening pipeline
FCC de‑orbit rule / in‑orbit services	New 5‑year de‑orbit rule; market opportunity multi‑billion by decade end	Reiterated structural tailwind and strategic focus (de‑orbiting, servicing)	Positive regulatory tailwind
Launch pricing/supply chain	Small launch providers’ mixed progress; ride‑share cost advantage; Starship could lower costs longer‑term	SpaceX rideshare price increases not impacting 2023 missions under existing LSAs; Starship expected to reduce costs; launch failures remind difficulty	Near‑term neutral; long‑term beneficial
Cost discipline / cash burn	Cost reduction plan to extend runway; ATM program; delayed long‑dated R&D	Monthly burn ~$6.8M in Q4 vs $8–9M in 1H; sufficient liquidity for 12 months	Improving efficiency

Management Commentary

CEO on progress and differentiation: “We are one of a small number of companies that have launched orbital service vehicles… Vigoride 5 is now in low earth orbit… our highly experienced team gives us a competitive advantage over our peers.”
On near‑term missions: “We plan to operate Vigoride… test MET… deploy Qosmosys satellite, support Caltech hosted payload onboard, and de‑orbit Vigoride 5 at mission conclusion… Vigoride 6… targeted for next month [April]” .
CFO on backlog and liquidity: “Approximately $33 million in backlog… non‑restricted cash and cash equivalents of $61 million… gross debt approximately $15 million… adjusted EBITDA was negative $15.5 million, an improvement of ~$0.5 million versus Q3” .
On cash burn: “Monthly cash burn for the fourth quarter… was $6.8 million… compared to first half… between $8 million and $9 million” .

Q&A Highlights

MET test success criteria: telemetry‑validated startup sequence, thrust burns, altitude and inclination changes using water‑propellant MET; RCS provides redundancy for maneuvering .
Cash burn and runway: monthly burn improved to ~$6.8M; company focused on resource prioritization; no forward earnings guidance, but adequate liquidity asserted .
Sales pipeline: repeat orders (FOSSA) and new customers (CONTEC, CUAVA); government demand (DoD/NASA) driven by power, flexibility, speed‑to‑market, cost .
SpaceX rideshare pricing: 2023 missions under existing contracts shielded; Starship introduction seen reducing costs; launch failures highlight industry difficulty .
Backlog composition: firm component steady; decline driven by option expirations; company does not disclose firm vs option breakdown .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus estimates for MNTS Q4 2022 EPS and revenue were unavailable via our data service at the time of review; comparisons vs Wall Street estimates cannot be provided and should be treated as unavailable [GetEstimates error noted].

Key Takeaways for Investors

Execution is improving: adjusted EBITDA and monthly cash burn trended better into Q4, while Vigoride 5 and 6 milestones de‑risk near‑term technical narrative; watch MET in‑space validation and April launch timing .
Backlog reset reflects option expirations/cancellations; firm backlog steady and commercial/government interest rising—monitor conversion of pipeline to firm orders and backlog rebuild through FY2023 .
Government markets are a strategic priority and potential funding source for R&D; NASA payloads and DoD dialogues could catalyze credibility and revenue diversification .
Structural tailwind from FCC 5‑year de‑orbit rule positions MNTS for in‑orbit services (de‑orbiting, servicing); long‑term TAM expansion supports thesis beyond transport .
Balance sheet adequate for 12 months per management; term debt declining—but revenue scale remains critical; expect continued non‑GAAP adjustments while platform matures .
Near‑term catalysts: MET performance data, Vigoride 6 mission outcomes (NASA payloads), additional contract announcements; any slip in launch timetable would be stock‑sensitive .
Longer‑term margin pathway hinges on reliability, capacity utilization, hosted payload power advantage, and eventual reusability (RPO demo on Vigoride 7 planned for Oct 2023) .

References:

Q4 2022 8‑K press release and exhibits .
Q4 2022 earnings call transcript .
Q3 2022 8‑K press release and exhibits .
Q2 2022 8‑K exhibits and call .

Momentus Inc. (MNTS)·Q4 2022 Earnings Summary