MRVL Q1 2026: AI now majority of data center revenue
- Secured Advanced 3‑Nanometer Capacity: Executives highlighted that Marvell has secured 3‑nanometer wafer and advanced packaging capacity for production starting in calendar 2026, which supports a multi-year ramp in its custom silicon business and underpins future revenue growth.
- Broad and Diversified Customer Engagements: The team emphasized strong partnerships with multiple hyperscale customers and demonstrated its capacity to expand its custom silicon offerings (including XPUs and other accelerators), ensuring revenue continuity and diversification in an environment of growing AI and data center demand.
- Market Leadership in Optical Connectivity: Marvell maintained a commanding position in the 800‑gig wave and was first‐to-market with its 1.6T, 5‑nanometer optical solution, which positions the company to capture increased market share as customers transition to higher-speed and more power‑efficient optical systems.
- Dual-Sourcing Risk: Customers may pursue multiple sourcing strategies for custom XPU programs, which could dilute Marvell’s revenue concentration and put pricing and margin pressure on the company.
- Margin Pressure from Custom Silicon Mix: The company's custom silicon business carries lower gross margins relative to its overall product mix, potentially impacting profitability as these lower-margin products take a larger share of revenue.
- Execution and Transition Risks for New Technologies: The ramp-up of advanced technologies—such as the 3-nanometer process chips and new optical solutions—faces customer qualification cycles and production transition challenges, which can delay revenue ramp and affect execution.
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
---|---|---|
Total Revenue | +63% (from $1,160.9M in Q1 FY2025 to $1,895.3M in Q1 FY2026) | Robust growth in the data center end market driven by AI demand led to a strong revenue bump, building on a relatively lower base in Q1 FY2025 where revenue was subdued. |
Data Center Revenue | +76% (from $816.4M to $1,440.6M) | Explosive growth in AI-related solutions, ramp-up of custom silicon programs, and strong electro-optics shipments boosted data center revenue, reflecting a strategic shift from previous quarters. |
Carrier Infrastructure | +93% (from $71.8M to $138.4M) | Sequential recovery after previous inventory corrections combined with improved order patterns contributed to nearly doubling revenue in this segment compared to Q1 FY2025. |
Enterprise Networking | +16% (from $153.1M to $177.5M) | Moderate recovery following inventory adjustments and renewed market demand enabled a steady improvement from the prior lower performance period. |
Consumer | +50% (from $42.0M to $63.1M) | Seasonality and gaming demand significantly boosted consumer revenue, marking an upturn versus the prior period’s subdued performance. |
Automotive/Industrial | –2% (from $77.6M to $75.7M) | Lumpy order patterns in the industrial market and only marginal gains in the automotive sub‐segment led to a slight decline compared to the previous period’s figures. |
Taiwan Revenue | +666% (from $42.6M to $327.3M) | A dramatic shift in shipment destinations and possibly enhanced role as a manufacturing hub for data center/AI products underpinned an exceptional increase compared to the modest revenue share in Q1 FY2025. |
United States Revenue | +41% (from $216.5M to $305.2M) | Growth in key segments such as Data Center and AI-driven solutions boosted U.S. revenue, building on an already significant presence in the domestic market. |
China Revenue | +34% (from $529.6M to $708.9M) | Recovery in order volumes despite ongoing export restrictions helped drive moderate improvement in China, compared to the previous period’s challenges. |
Operating Income | Turnaround: from an operating loss of $152.3M to a positive $270.6M (improvement of $422.9M) | Strong revenue growth, cost efficiencies, and reduced restructuring charges reversed prior negative operating performance, indicating effective margin management versus the challenging environment in Q1 FY2025. |
Net Loss | Improved: narrowed from a $215.6M loss to a $177.9M loss | Better top‐line performance and improved operating income reduced net loss, even though non‐cash charges and other expenses remained, showing progress compared to previous quarters. |
Operating Cash Flow | Operating cash provided reached $332.9M | High non‐cash adjustments (e.g. amortization, stock‑based compensation, and restructuring charges) combined with favorable working capital changes resulted in strong operating cash despite financing and investing outflows, an improvement from earlier periods. |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue ($USD) | Q2 2026 | $1.875 billion, plus or minus 5% | $2 billion at the midpoint, representing 57% year-over-year growth | raised |
GAAP Gross Margin (%) | Q2 2026 | 50.5% | 50% to 51% | no change |
Non-GAAP Gross Margin (%) | Q2 2026 | Approximately 60% | 59% to 60% | no change |
GAAP Operating Expenses ($USD) | Q2 2026 | Approximately $712 million | Approximately $735 million | raised |
Non-GAAP Operating Expenses ($USD) | Q2 2026 | Approximately $490 million | Approximately $415 million | lowered |
Other Income and Expense ($USD) | Q2 2026 | Approximately $43 million, including interest on debt | Approximately $49 million, including interest on debt | raised |
Non-GAAP Tax Rate (%) | Q2 2026 | 10% | 10% | no change |
Basic Weighted Average Shares Outstanding (millions) | Q2 2026 | 867 million | 864 million | lowered |
Diluted Weighted Average Shares Outstanding (millions) | Q2 2026 | 818 million | 874 million | raised |
GAAP Earnings Per Diluted Share ($USD) | Q2 2026 | $0.14 to $0.24 | $0.16 to $0.26 | raised |
Non-GAAP Earnings Per Diluted Share ($USD) | Q2 2026 | $0.56 to $0.66 | $0.62 | no change |
Data Center Revenue | Q2 2026 | no prior guidance | Expected to grow sequentially in the mid-single-digit range on a percentage basis, with strong year-over-year growth | no prior guidance |
Enterprise Networking and Carrier Infrastructure Revenue | Q2 2026 | no prior guidance | Expected to grow sequentially in the mid-single-digit range on a percentage basis | no prior guidance |
Consumer Revenue | Q2 2026 | no prior guidance | Expected to grow by approximately 50% sequentially | no prior guidance |
Total Debt ($USD) | Q2 2026 | no prior guidance | $4.2 billion | no prior guidance |
Gross Debt-to-EBITDA Ratio | Q2 2026 | no prior guidance | 1.8x | no prior guidance |
Net Debt-to-EBITDA Ratio | Q2 2026 | no prior guidance | 1.42x | no prior guidance |
Cash Flow from Operations ($USD) | Q2 2026 | no prior guidance | Approximately $333 million | no prior guidance |
Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue (GAAP) | Q1 2026 | $1.875B ± 5% | $1,895.3M | Met |
Gross Margin (GAAP) | Q1 2026 | ~50.5% | ~50.2% (952.4 ÷ 1,895.3) | Met |
Operating Expenses (GAAP) | Q1 2026 | ~$712M | $681.8M | Beat |
EPS (GAAP, Diluted) | Q1 2026 | $0.14 – $0.24 | $0.20 | Met |
Weighted Avg. Shares (Basic, GAAP) | Q1 2026 | ~867M | 864.8M | Met |
Weighted Avg. Shares (Diluted, GAAP) | Q1 2026 | ~818M | 875.6M | Missed |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
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Advanced Process Technology | In Q4 2025, Marvell emphasized breakthroughs in 3nm technology, introduced the industry’s first 3nm DSP and showcased investments in advanced packaging; in Q3 2025 they reiterated 3nm process improvements while Q2 2025 had no mention | In Q1 2026, Marvell secured 3nm wafer and advanced packaging capacity for its lead XPU program and announced a new multi-die packaging platform, with production slated for later in the year; a multigenerational design engagement was underlined | Increased focus on leveraging cutting‐edge process nodes and multi-die packaging with clear multigenerational engagement strategies. |
Custom Silicon Business Expansion | Q2 2025 highlighted custom silicon as the largest revenue driver despite lower gross margins; Q3 2025 discussed robust multigenerational agreements and significant revenue opportunities; Q4 2025 emphasized strong ramp-up, complex custom silicon programs and margin challenges | In Q1 2026, Marvell underlined strong growth in its custom silicon business driven by AI demand, noted secured capacity for 3nm and advanced packaging, and referenced key strategic partnerships—all while managing lower gross margin pressures | Consistent growth with improved execution and strategic partnerships; managing margin pressures while advancing multigenerational programs. |
Data Center and AI Revenue Growth | Q2 2025 showed strong data center revenue growth driven by electro-optics and custom silicon with no mention of AWS; Q3 2025 reported record revenue with an explicit 5-year AWS multigenerational agreement; Q4 2025 focused on hyperscale partnerships and strong AI revenue | In Q1 2026, Marvell posted record data center revenue with 76% YoY growth, emphasized rapid scaling of AI silicon programs, highlighted a lead hyperscale customer and expanded its AWS engagement, and forecasted sequential mid-single-digit growth | Sustained strong growth driven by AI demand and hyperscale partnerships; AWS engagements have become more prominent and support long-term revenue acceleration. |
Optical Connectivity and DSP Innovation | Q2 2025 described early shipments and the ramp-up of 1.6T DSPs on the path from 800Gb solutions; Q3 2025 announced the first 3nm 1.6T DSP with major efficiency improvements; Q4 2025 showcased both 5nm and 3nm 1.6T DSP innovations along with breakthroughs at OFC | In Q1 2026, Marvell reported the commencement of shipments for 1.6T solutions at 5nm combined with strong demand for 3nm solutions, emphasizing leadership in the transition from 800G to 1.6T while showcasing innovative, energy‐efficient optical products | A clear evolution from 800G to 1.6T solutions with continuous DSP innovation; customer demand and transition execution improve progressively. |
Execution, Transition, and Inventory Risks in New Technology Ramp-Up | Q2 2025 noted effective ramping of AI programs with stable inventory digestion and strong execution; Q3 2025 discussed robust execution of complex custom silicon ramps and careful monitoring of inventory; Q4 2025 acknowledged increased inventory build-up yet emphasized collaborative planning and technological transitions | In Q1 2026, Marvell highlighted strong execution and smooth transition with low distribution inventory and rapid shipment commencement for new technologies (1.6T and 3nm), reflecting heightened confidence in a risk-managed ramp-up | Improved execution and well-managed transitions with lower inventory concerns compared to prior periods; risk factors are being proactively mitigated. |
Competitive Dynamics and Dual-Sourcing Risks in Custom Silicon Programs | Q2 2025 mentioned competition from one large capable rival with no explicit dual-sourcing risk; Q3 2025 emphasized the high barriers to entry and identified just one other competitor; Q4 2025 discussed competitive bidding for each generation and the stickiness of customer engagements | In Q1 2026, competitive dynamics were addressed by acknowledging multiple sourcing paths due to high volumes while reiterating confidence in revenue continuity and multiyear engagements, with increased attention to managing dual-sourcing risks | From limited earlier discussion to more detailed risk assessments in Q1; despite potential dual-sourcing, Marvell remains confident in its strong, multi-generational customer relationships and market leadership. |
Evolving Margin and Operating Leverage Sentiments | Q2 2025 featured expectations of stable gross margins with operating leverage driven by custom silicon despite lower margins; Q3 2025 noted gross margin performance near 60% and sequential operating margin improvements; Q4 2025 underscored a >1,000 basis point operating margin improvement and record operating cash flow | In Q1 2026, executives pointed to a non-GAAP operating margin of 42% with robust EPS growth outpacing revenue, reiterating that while custom silicon lowers gross margins, it significantly enhances operating leverage and margin expansion | Continued improvement in operating leverage and margin expansion, even as product mix challenges maintain lower gross margins; strong focus on disciplined OpEx management and revenue scaling. |
Shift from Traditional Business Recovery | Q2 2025 described severe YoY declines with gradual recovery in enterprise, carrier, and storage; Q3 2025 reported modest sequential gains (4%) in enterprise and carrier with expectations for acceleration; Q4 2025 saw more robust recovery with 18% sequential growth and improved forecasts | In Q1 2026, traditional segments such as enterprise networking and carrier infrastructure continued to recover with 14% sequential growth and strong Q2 guidance, reflecting ongoing normalization and recovery across legacy markets | A steady shift from significant downturns to robust recovery; traditional segments are trending toward normalization with increasingly solid sequential growth and improved market fundamentals. |
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Data Center AI
Q: What is AI share and future forecast?
A: Management noted that AI now forms the majority of data center revenue and is on course to further increase its share, setting the stage for sustained, long‑term growth and eventually dominating overall revenue. -
XPU Programs
Q: Content and exclusivity for next‑gen XPU?
A: Management highlighted that the current XPU program is ramping successfully and, having secured 3‑nanometer wafer and advanced packaging for 2026, they expect multi‑generational revenue—even though customers may pursue multiple paths. -
ASIC Margins
Q: What are sustainable AI ASIC margins?
A: Management explained that while the custom silicon segment naturally earns lower gross margins, the mix remains consistent with historical levels, and increased volumes deliver strong operating leverage and EPS growth. -
Optical & Amazon
Q: How is optical business and Amazon engagement?
A: Management affirmed that their optical business is performing robustly with steady growth, and active engagements—such as with Amazon—across multiple connectivity products are driving additional revenue. -
Custom Business Growth
Q: What is outlook for custom and enterprise growth?
A: Management expects recovery in the custom silicon and enterprise networking segments to continue, supporting steady revenue growth into the second half and laying the groundwork for an even stronger fiscal year. -
Dual Sourcing & NVLink
Q: Is dual sourcing and NVLink fusion planned?
A: Management acknowledged the potential for customers to explore multiple sourcing tracks while emphasizing revenue continuity, and described the NVLink fusion as a chiplet solution offered without an IP transfer. -
SerDes & NVLink Fusion
Q: How is 200G SerDes and NVLink fusion progressing?
A: Management confirmed that their 200‑gig SerDes technology remains best‑in‑class with an aggressive roadmap, and that NVLink fusion is enhancing their customer-specific designs. -
Broader Customer Support
Q: Can Marvell support a broader customer base?
A: Management stressed their robust R&D investments and capacity expansion, ensuring that their engineering resources can effectively support an expanding roster of customer engagements across both custom silicon and connectivity. -
AI vs On‑Prem Growth
Q: How fast is AI growing versus on‑prem?
A: Management clarified that AI is the fastest‑growing segment in the data center, while on‑prem revenue remains a minor and stable component, reflecting a strategic shift towards AI‑driven demand. -
Network & Next‑Gen Solutions
Q: What about 1.6T ramp and 3nm integration?
A: Management reported that shipments of 1.6T 5‑nm solutions are underway with strong demand, and they anticipate an even stronger ramp for future 3‑nm versions that will enhance power efficiency and performance. -
Optical Market Share
Q: What is optical market share and inventory status?
A: Management emphasized commanding market share in 800G products and being first‑to‑market with 1.6T technologies, with favorable low inventory levels and robust sell‑through providing further support for future growth. -
Multiple ASIC Tracks
Q: Are customers exploring multiple ASIC tracks?
A: Management noted that customers are considering diverse ASIC designs for varied workloads, with further details to be elaborated at upcoming investor events.
Research analysts covering Marvell Technology.