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    Marvell Technology (MRVL)

    MRVL Q2 2026: 18+ design wins fuel $75B AI pipeline

    Reported on Aug 29, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$77.23Last close (Aug 28, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$77.23Last close (Aug 28, 2025)
    Price Change
    $0.00(0.00%)
    • Strong Custom Silicon Momentum: The team highlighted robust design win momentum with an expanding portfolio—from a handful up to 18+ design wins that are now moving into production, which supports significant long‑term revenue potential in the AI and data center markets.
    • Robust Revenue Growth in AI/Data Center Segments: The Q&A emphasized rapid growth in both the custom and optical segments, with strong double-digit growth in optics and a sizeable $75 billion pipeline, reinforcing the company’s leading position in high-growth AI-driven markets.
    • Strategic Capital Allocation: The divestiture of the automotive Ethernet business for $2.5 billion provides valuable proceeds that enable further investment in AI and data center technology, as well as increased shareholder returns through buybacks, underpinning a disciplined and opportunistic capital strategy.
    • Lumpiness in Custom Revenue: The Q&A highlighted concerns about significant "lumpiness" in the custom XPU business, where revenue production is highly variable quarter-to-quarter. This variability could lead to periodic underperformance if the expected recovery, such as a strong Q4 ramp, fails to materialize.
    • Dependence on Concentrated Lead Customers: Discussions pointed to a reliance on a few large hyperscale customers for custom products. This concentration risk means any delay or reduction in orders from these customers could have an outsized negative impact on Marvell’s revenue growth.
    • Uncertainty in New Product Timelines: Questions about the timing of new product rollouts—such as the 3nm XPU follow-on programs and scale-up switch fabric revenue—underscore uncertainties. Delays or slower-than-anticipated ramp-ups in these areas could prevent the company from achieving its projected growth targets.
    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Custom Silicon

    Mentioned across Q1 2026 , Q4 2025 , and Q3 2025 with strong design wins, robust pipeline growth, and acknowledgment of revenue “lumpiness” and margin pressure.

    In Q2 2026, strong momentum is noted with over 50 new opportunities, multi-generational design wins, and continued revenue variability from timing of builds.

    Consistent emphasis on strong design wins and pipeline expansion continues, though revenue lumpiness remains a consideration.

    AI and Data Center Growth

    Detailed in Q1 2026 , Q4 2025 and Q3 2025 with robust growth, a deep pipeline for custom AI silicon, and earlier concerns about spending deceleration.

    Q2 2026 highlights record revenue, strong year-over-year and sequential growth, and a robust design win pipeline driving data center and AI revenue, with less emphasis on spending deceleration.

    The growth story remains strong with an expanding pipeline, and concerns over spending deceleration have receded, reflecting a more optimistic near-term outlook.

    Advanced Process Technology

    Discussed in Q1 2026 , Q4 2025 and Q3 2025 with focus on secured 3nm capacity, early product introductions, and new DSP innovations driving next-generation product rollouts.

    In Q2 2026, there is acknowledgement of the sensitivity around 3nm programs but less detailed commentary, focusing instead on the execution of incremental designs and long-term market share targets.

    Consistent focus on advancing process nodes remains, although Q2 2026 is less detailed on rollout uncertainties, indicating a matured execution approach in advanced process technology.

    Optical Connectivity

    Across Q1 2026 , Q4 2025 and Q3 2025 , Marvell stressed market leadership through innovative DSPs and high-speed solutions, while addressing inventory and DSP management challenges.

    Q2 2026 emphasizes leadership with strong demand for 800 gig PAM DSPs, volume shipments of 200 gig per lane products, and a managed decrease in inventory, alongside careful DSP and supply chain coordination.

    Strong market leadership continues with consistent innovation, while effective inventory and DSP management in Q2 2026 suggest risks are being well controlled.

    Customer Engagement and Diversification

    Featured in Q1 2026 , Q4 2025 and Q3 2025 with emphasis on deepening hyperscale engagements, gaining design wins across multiple customers, and addressing concentrated lead risks.

    Q2 2026 highlights significant design activity and expanded opportunities with both existing and emerging hyperscale players, reaffirming efforts to broaden the partner base.

    There is ongoing success in diversifying the customer base and building broad hyperscale partnerships, reducing reliance on any single lead customer while deepening customer engagement.

    Execution and Transition Risks in New Technologies

    Covered in Q1 2026 , Q4 2025 and Q3 2025 with discussion on robust product ramp-ups, first-pass silicon success, and competitive design win cycles amidst technology transitions.

    In Q2 2026, strong execution is reiterated with effective coordination in product ramp-ups and continued focus on winning incremental designs despite tight supply chains and competitive pressures.

    The capability to manage product ramp-ups and competitive cycles remains strong and consistent, with execution risks being effectively mitigated as the company transitions to new technologies.

    Strategic Capital Allocation and Divestiture

    Discussed in Q1 2026 with mention of the automotive Ethernet sale as a strategic step, though not covered in Q4 or Q3 2025.

    Q2 2026 reinforces the focus with details on the $2.5 billion all-cash divestiture, emphasizing the reinvestment strategy towards AI and data center opportunities and more flexible capital allocation.

    This topic shows an emerging and impactful strategic focus; the divestiture is being used to reallocate capital to core markets, marking an evolution from earlier periods where it was less referenced.

    Inventory Build-Up and Margin Pressure

    Previously discussed in Q1 2026 , Q4 2025 and Q3 2025 with concerns over inventory increases and margin pressure as custom programs and optics ramped up.

    Q2 2026 reports a slight decrease in inventory and maintains healthy gross margins, indicating improved management and less emphasis on margin pressure compared to earlier periods.

    Earlier issues with inventory build-up and margin pressure appear to have moderated; improved inventory management and stable margins in Q2 2026 suggest a positive operational trend.

    Enterprise and Carrier Segment Recovery

    Outlined in Q1 2026 , Q4 2025 and Q3 2025 with indications of sequential growth and a recovery from previous uncertainties in these segments.

    In Q2 2026, recovery is strong with sequential growth of 2% and 43% year-over-year, and outlooks for further sequential improvement, reflecting normalization and continued momentum.

    The recovery of these segments is steadily progressing, with Q2 2026 showing normalization and improved growth, reducing earlier uncertainties and solidifying their contribution to overall revenue.

    1. Capital Allocation
      Q: How will proceeds be deployed?
      A: Management will use proceeds from the automotive Ethernet divestiture for both buybacks and opportunistic acquisitions to bolster the company’s AI growth strategy, reflecting a disciplined capital allocation approach.

    2. Custom Guidance
      Q: What headwinds in Q3 custom?
      A: The custom business is experiencing normal lumpiness from hyperscale build transitions, but strong optics performance and a ramp-up are expected to drive a robust recovery in Q4.

    3. Design Wins
      Q: New vs. existing design wins?
      A: The firm is witnessing an unprecedented momentum in design wins—with both new and existing programs ramping—providing multibillion-dollar lifetime revenue potential.

    4. Customer Focus
      Q: How concentrated are lead customers?
      A: Key customer programs are ramping steadily, with a broad pipeline that should gradually diversify concentration and help increase market share from 10% toward 20% over time.

    5. 3nm XPU Update
      Q: Status on 3nm XPU programs?
      A: The three nanometer XPU follow-on programs are progressing as planned, with expanded opportunities underway, though management is focused on the overall strategy rather than individual details.

    6. Scale-Up Switches
      Q: When will scale-up switches ramp?
      A: Scale-up switch solutions, including UOLINK and Ethernet-based products, are expected to start ramping within the next two years, while LPO modules remain a niche but valuable opportunity.

    Research analysts covering Marvell Technology.