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VAIL RESORTS INC (MTN)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2025 was seasonally loss-making, with total net revenue of $271.3M and diluted EPS of -$5.08; revenue and EPS missed Wall Street consensus (revenue $276.2M*, EPS -$4.73*) as Resort Reported EBITDA fell to -$123.6M, largely due to CEO transition and transformation one-time costs .
  • FY 2025 Resort Reported EBITDA rose 2.3% to $844.1M despite a 3% decline in North American visits, aided by $37M in savings from the resource efficiency transformation plan; FY diluted EPS was $7.53 .
  • Initial FY 2026 guidance: net income $201–$276M and Resort Reported EBITDA $842–$898M, implying ~28.8% Resort EBITDA margin at midpoint; management flagged lower pass units, price/mix tailwinds, and $75M efficiencies (before ~$14M one-time costs) .
  • Pass product sales through Sept. 19, 2025: down ~3% units, up ~1% dollars; new Epic Friend Tickets (50% off lift tickets, with value applicable toward a future pass) are intended to rebuild lift-ticket visitation and feed pass conversion .
  • Capital returns and balance sheet: $2.22 dividend declared (payable Oct 27, 2025) and ~$200M Q4 share repurchases (1.29M shares at ~$156); $500M 5.625% Senior Notes due 2030 issued to bolster liquidity and address 2026 converts .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Cost discipline and transformation benefits: ~$37M efficiencies in FY 2025; FY Resort Reported EBITDA +2.3% YoY to $844.1M despite visit declines .
    • Summer operations and Australia momentum: Q4 summer demand in North America/Europe in line; Australian visitation improved on better weather and growth in Australia pass sales .
    • Strategic product initiatives: Launch of Epic Friend Tickets (50% off lift tickets, applicable toward a future pass), intended to boost lift-ticket visitation and future pass conversion .
    • Quote: “We are fully committed to executing a multi-year strategy… to drive sustained, profitable growth” .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Q4 EBITDA decline: Resort Reported EBITDA fell to -$123.6M from -$114.6M, driven by ~$8M CEO transition costs, ~$5M transformation one-time costs, and ~$1M FX headwind .
    • Lift-ticket headwinds and retail softness: In Q3, lift-ticket visitation was below expectations; Q4 retail/rental revenue -0.9% YoY and FY retail/rental -4.6% YoY .
    • Pricing/engagement gaps: Management acknowledged guest engagement channels lagged shifting consumer behavior; email effectiveness declined and lift-ticket marketing needed more focus .

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025Q4 2025
Total Net Revenue ($USD Millions)$265.386 $1,137.225 $1,295.558 $271.289
Diluted EPS ($USD)-$4.70 $6.56 $10.54 -$5.08
Resort Reported EBITDA ($USD Millions)-$114.566 $459.663 $647.731 -$123.553
Resort Net Revenue ($USD Millions)$265.300 $1,137.054 $1,295.443 $271.203
Resort EBITDA Margin (%)-43.2% 40.4% 50.0% -45.6%

Actual vs Consensus (Q4 2025)

MetricActualConsensus
Total Net Revenue ($USD Millions)$271.289 $276.171*
Diluted EPS ($USD)-$5.08 -$4.73*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment Breakdown (Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024)

Mountain Net Revenue ($USD Millions)Q4 2024Q4 2025
Lift$48.258 $47.587
Ski School$9.493 $9.772
Dining$17.964 $18.393
Retail/Rental$24.304 $24.087
Other$75.857 $81.095
Total Mountain Net Revenue$175.876 $180.934
Lodging Net Revenue ($USD Millions)Q4 2024Q4 2025
Owned Hotel Rooms$30.239 $31.566
Managed Condominium Rooms$10.498 $10.112
Dining$17.081 $17.798
Transportation$1.249 $1.069
Golf$7.181 $7.877
Other$19.668 $18.696
Total Lodging Net Revenue$89.424 $90.269

KPIs

KPIQ4 2024Q4 2025
Skier Visits (quarter)N/A753,699
ETP (quarter)$69.04 $63.20
Owned Hotel ADR$317.21 $331.06
Owned Hotel RevPAR$175.22 $185.37
Managed Condo ADR$260.89 $261.91
Managed Condo RevPAR$46.30 $48.62
Pass Sales (units YoY, through Sept. 19)N/A-3% units; +1% dollars

Notes: Q4 is off-season for North America/Europe; EBITDA loss driven by CEO transition ($8M), transformation one-time costs ($5M), and FX ($1M) .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Net Income Attributable to Vail Resorts ($USD Millions)FY 2026N/A$201–$276 Initial
Resort Reported EBITDA ($USD Millions)FY 2026N/A$842–$898 Initial
Resort EBITDA Margin (%)FY 2026 (midpoint)N/A~28.8% Initial
Mountain Reported EBITDA ($USD Millions)FY 2026N/A$820–$874 Initial
Lodging Reported EBITDA ($USD Millions)FY 2026N/A$18–$28 Initial
Real Estate Reported EBITDA ($USD Millions)FY 2026N/A$2–$8 Initial
Interest Expense, net ($USD Millions)FY 2026N/A$210–$202 Initial
Resource Efficiency Plan (efficiencies before one-time)FY 2026+$67M (implied)+$75M (>$8M vs original plan) Raised by ~$8M
One-time costs (transformation plan)FY 2026~$14M~$14M Maintained
Dividend per shareQ4 2025$2.22 (prior quarter) $2.22 (payable Oct 27, 2025) Maintained
Capital Plan (calendar 2025)CY 2025$249–$254M total incl. Europe/real estate $249–$254M reaffirmed Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ2 2025 (Mar)Q3 2025 (Jun)Q4 2025 (Sep)Trend
Lift-ticket visitationEarly conditions improved; destination shifted later Below expectations in spring; pass stability offset Expect total visits down slightly; Epic Friend Tickets to partially offset Near-term headwind; mitigation underway
Pass program & pricingPass price +7%; launch enhancements; FY25 guidance updated Pass units -1% (spring); pricing/mix supported revenue Pass units -3% (Sept); modernize portfolio; evaluate benefits/pricing for FY 2027 Rebuild and optimize mix
Guest engagement/marketingContinued investment; My Epic app progress Lift-ticket demand lagging Shift from email to broader digital/social; influencer; brand elevation Strategic pivot accelerating
Technology & commerceMobile Pass/My Epic Assistant investments Capex includes app functionality and AI Add native commerce; Google Pay/Apple Pay; improve mobile conversion Execution emphasis FY 2026
Resource efficiency planOn track; $100M annualized by FY 2026 Savings continuing; guidance updated $37M delivered FY 2025; $75M in FY 2026 (+$8M vs plan) Higher-than-planned efficiencies
Australia & Park CityAustralia season ahead; planning Australia FX/weather normalization in FY26 (+$9M EBITDA) Australia visitation improved; Park City expected tailwind vs last year Improving factors

Management Commentary

  • Strategy and engagement: “We are fully committed to executing a multi-year strategy that unlocks the full potential of our business… optimize marketing, product, and pricing strategies… and capitalize on emerging technologies” .
  • Lift-ticket rebuild: “We are focused on rebuilding lift ticket visitation… introduced Epic Friend Tickets… the full value of the ticket can be applied towards a future pass purchase” .
  • Marketing pivot: “Email effectiveness has declined… we plan to increase our exposure within digital and social platforms, and expand our influencer partnerships” .
  • Technology focus: “The app does not have native commerce… we are seeing guest engagement dramatically increase… purchase conversion within both are significantly lower… we will add native commerce and payment integrations” .
  • Confidence in long-term: “These actions… give me confidence in our ability to deliver long term sustainable growth… and long term value” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Visitation outlook and offsets: Management expects total FY 2026 visitation down slightly due to lower pass units, with lift-ticket initiatives providing partial offset; Epic Friend Tickets are expected to be a net positive, growing over time .
  • Lift-ticket pricing optimization: Plans for targeted price adjustments (resort/time period) with attention to avoiding pass cannibalization; large price gap vs pre-season passes provides room to act .
  • Dividends/leverage: Comfortable maintaining $2.22 dividend even at low-end guide via modest leverage; no increase without materially higher free cash flow .
  • Park City and operations: Park City expected to be a tailwind vs last year’s disruption; bookings supportive .
  • Marketing/data: Broader use of data across paid media, TV, social, influencers, and lookalike targeting to modernize engagement beyond email .

Estimates Context

  • Q4 2025 revenue and EPS missed Wall Street consensus: actual revenue $271.3M vs $276.2M*, EPS -$5.08 vs -$4.73*; FY 2026 near-term quarterly consensus implies continued off-season losses (Q1 2026 revenue ~$274.8M*, EBITDA -$139.0M*), consistent with seasonality. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Where estimates may need to adjust:

  • Near-term visitation assumptions may be revised lower given management’s expectation of slightly down total visits versus prior year, offset partially by lift-ticket initiatives .
  • EBITDA margin trajectory should reflect transformation savings ($75M in FY 2026) and Australia normalization (+$9M), offset by lower pass units and cost inflation .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q4 seasonal loss was larger YoY, driven by one-time CEO transition and transformation costs and FX; underlying demand in summer ops held up, and Australia improved .
  • FY 2025 proved resilient: Resort Reported EBITDA up 2.3% to $844.1M with $37M efficiencies despite North American visit declines; FY diluted EPS $7.53 .
  • FY 2026 guidance is conservative on visitation but supported by price/mix, ancillary capture, transformation efficiencies, and Australia normalization; watch execution of Epic Friend Tickets and lift-ticket pricing .
  • Strategic pivot to modern digital/social marketing and native mobile commerce is a key narrative catalyst; evidence of improved mobile conversion could re-rate near-term expectations .
  • Pass units are down (-3% YoY), but Friend Tickets are designed to rebuild lift-ticket visitation and feed pass conversion into FY 2027; monitor December pass update .
  • Capital returns remain balanced: $2.22 dividend and opportunistic buybacks; liquidity reinforced via $500M 2030 notes and plan to address 2026 converts .
  • Trading implications: Near term, results slightly below consensus and guidance that contemplates lower visits can cap upside; medium term, operating leverage from efficiencies and improved engagement/commerce could drive margin stabilization and reacceleration into FY 2027 .