Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group - Earnings Call - Q2 2026

Transcript

Jun Togawa (Senior Managing Corporate Executive and Group CFO)

Good evening, investors, shareholders, and rating agencies. I am Togawa, Group CFO. Thank you very much for joining MUFG's online conference call today, despite the late hour. Please look at the material titled "Financial Highlights Under JGAAP" for the first half of the fiscal year ending March 31st, 2026. Let me first explain our Q2 financial results, followed by revised fiscal year 2025 performance targets and shareholder return measures. Let me start from the income statement summary. Please turn to page eight. First, the figures for the first half of fiscal year 2024 on the far left column of the table include the impact of the change in the equity method accounting date at Krungsri in Thailand. The far right column shows the actual year-over-year change, adjusting this impact. All explanations on this page will be based on adjusted year-on-year comparisons. Line 1: Gross profits increased by JPY 189.3 billion year-on-year.

Line 2 and below shows the breakdown of gross profits. Net interest income increased thanks to the impact of rising yen interest rates, improving lending spreads, and benefits from last year's bond portfolio rebalancing. In addition, net fees and commissions expanded significantly, primarily due to growth in various fee revenues from domestic and overseas solution services and effects of acquisitions. Next, Line 6: G&A expenses increased by JPY 127.9 billion year-on-year due to the impact of inflation and acquisitions, as well as strategic expense allocation mainly in retail and digital business group. Expense ratio was flat year-on-year at 56.1%. As a result, Line 8: Net operating profits increased by JPY 61.3 billion year-on-year. Next, Line 9: Credit costs decreased by JPY 65.7 billion year-on-year. I will explain the reasons for this later.

Net gains and losses on equity securities decreased by JPY 235.3 billion due to the gain on sale of large equity holdings last year, which is in line with our projection at the beginning of fiscal year 2025. Equity in earnings of equity method investees increased significantly year-on-year, mainly due to the extremely strong performance of Morgan Stanley. As a result, profits attributable to owners of parent was JPY 1,292.9 billion. Although gain on sale of equity holdings decreased year-on-year, we were able to achieve steady growth in net operating profits and equity accounted earnings, which demonstrate the strength of our core business, and also recorded one-time gains related to investments and organizational restructuring, resulting in a record high first half profit. Our progress toward initial full-year target of JPY 2 trillion stands at a high level of 64.6%.

Performance by business group is shown on pages 9 through 12. I will not go into detail, but customer segment NOP is growing steadily, with the exception of retail and digital, where strategic expenditures were made, and global commercial banking, which was affected by the economic slowdown in Asia. All business groups achieved an increase in net income. Please turn to page 14 on balance sheet summary. The diagram on the left shows the overview. Loans, shown in the top left, increased by approximately JPY 1.8 trillion from the end of fiscal year 2024. Excluding government loans, it increased both in Japan and overseas by approximately JPY 4 trillion. Page 15 shows the status of domestic loans. The graph on the bottom right shows the trend in domestic corporate lending spreads. Spreads for large corporates in red line is rising thanks to the accumulation of large, highly profitable loans.

Along with SMEs in orange, profit improvement measures have been successful, and the upward trend is continuing. Next, page 16 shows the status of overseas loans. The bottom right graph shows the trend in overseas lending spreads. The Americas has settled somewhat, as the replacement of low-profit assets with high-profit assets has run its course, but we continue to work on improving profitability in each region and maintain the gradual recovery trend. Meanwhile, GCIB has seen a significant increase in fee income as their O&D measures are progressing, and we are working to improve capital efficiency on both fronts. Please turn to page 17 on asset quality. The NPL ratio shown by the line graph on the left continues to remain at a low level. The bottom right graph shows the breakdown of year-on-year changes in total credit costs.

While there was an increase in large loan loss provisions overseas last year on the bank non-consolidated basis, the sale was completed this fiscal year, resulting in a reversal. There were also multiple significant reversals in Japan, resulting in a significant decrease in credit costs. Credit costs also decreased at our overseas subsidiaries due to the effect of stricter screening criteria for new credit transactions in Asian partner banks. Taking the current situation into account, we kept our full-year outlook for credit costs unchanged. Please turn to page 18 on investment securities, including equities and government bonds. I will explain the unrealized gains and losses in the upper left table. Line 3: Unrealized gains on domestic equity securities increased by JPY 0.36 trillion compared to the end of March 2025 due to rising stock prices despite progress in reducing equity holdings.

In addition, unrealized gains and losses on domestic bonds reflecting hedging positions, showing in the upper half of the lower left graph, is controlled at a low level of just under JPY 0.3 trillion, and unrealized gains and losses on foreign bonds in the bottom half are slightly positive. Given the scale of our balance sheet and income statement, we think we are in an extremely healthy state with a reasonable degree of flexibility. Regarding the reduction of equity holdings on the right, the cumulative sales during the current MTBP were JPY 339 billion on an acquisition cost basis, which is about half of the JPY 700 billion target. The agreed amount has reached nearly 80% of the target, and we are making steady progress toward achieving this target.

Page 20 shows capital adequacy. The CET1 ratio, excluding unrealized gains, on the finalized and fully implemented Basel III basis fell 30 basis points from the end of March to 10.5% at the upper end of our target range due to growth investments and increase in loans, as well as yen appreciation versus end of March. Towards the end of the fiscal year, we expect risk-weighted asset to continue to accumulate and the yen to appreciate based on the financial indicators I will come back later. Therefore, we expect the ratio to remain around the midpoint of the target range. Capital allocation results are shown on the lower right. We will continue to manage capital with an eye on balancing shareholder returns and growth investments. Please go back to page three. Let me turn to our FY 2025 financial targets and shareholder returns.

As shown on the left, given the continued strong performance of NOP, particularly in the customer segment, and increased income from equity method investee, we revised up our net income target by JPY 100 billion from initial target to JPY 2.1 trillion. Turning to shareholder returns on the right, we continue to aim for a dividend payout ratio of approximately 40%, and in line with the upward revision of profit target, our annual dividend forecast for FY 2025 was revised up to JPY 74, up JPY 10 from the previous year, and JPY 4 from initial forecast. Regarding share repurchase, a resolution was approved today to acquire an additional JPY 250 billion in the second half of the year, bringing the total amount for the full year to JPY 500 billion. As discussed in May, this is due to take into account total shareholder return over the past few years.

We also announced today the cancellation of 200 million treasury shares. We aim to achieve our mid- to long-term ROE target and will work to provide shareholder returns while taking the optimal balance with growth investments into account. Turning to progress of three pillars of MTBP, please turn to page four. First pillar is expand and refine growth strategies, as shown on the left. Each of the seven strategies for season growth is on track, resulting in an increase in NOP of approximately JPY 150 billion compared to fiscal year 2023. In particular, in the domestic retail business, a new service brand, Emutto, was announced in June this year. The credit card reward programs and group-wide campaigns launched in conjunction with Emutto generated strong response, leading to increased transactions for each group company.

We will continue to demonstrate the collective strength of the group and aim to expand our services, including digital banking. Please turn to page five. Second pillar, social and environmental progress, is shown on the left. Sustainable finance has steadily built up a track record, even with different vectors at play globally. A white paper will be published again this year to communicate our view on contributing to accelerating transition. On the right is our third pillar, transformation and innovation. Under the current midterm plan to maximize MUFG's potential, we are working as a group to pursue new business initiatives, invest in human capital, and strengthen our foundations in areas such as AI and data, in addition to continuing cultural reform. Corporate transformation using AI is a particular urgent priority, and by combining this with agile management, we are working to transform into an AI-native company.

The number of AI use cases has reached 116, and the aim is to increase to over 250 cases by FY 2026. Current estimates suggest that the cumulative benefits over the three years of the current MTBP is approximately JPY 30 billion. The launch of a new strategic partnership with OpenAI is expected to accelerate use of AI across the company and to collaborate on various services, primarily in the retail sector, such as digital banking. Moving on to page six, let me take you through our path to achieving mid to long-term ROE target of 12%, which has been a popular question since our announcement in May. We assume that the policy rate will rise to around 1%, while the sale of equity holdings will come to an end and capital gains will cease.

After solidifying the goals of the growth strategy of the current MTBP, as explained on page 4, we will pursue both organic growth by refining existing areas, both domestically and overseas, and inorganic growth by focusing on the areas described in the slide, thereby making steady progress towards an ROE of 12%. Mr. Kamezawa will share his thoughts on this point at the investor meeting on the 18th. Page seven, my last slide. Last month, in October, we celebrated our 20th anniversary as MUFG. Looking back over the past 20 years, thanks to the understanding and support of our stakeholders, including our investors, we have taken on many challenges, gone through three major transitions, and achieved growth, sometimes despite headwinds.

MUFG will continue to push ourselves forward, and guided by our purpose of committed to empowering a brighter future, we will aim to further increase our corporate value, even in a rapidly changing external environment. Your continued understanding and support is very much appreciated. That is all for me.

Operator (participant)

We will now take questions. Let me introduce the first questioner, Mr. Takamiya of Nomura Securities. Please go ahead.

Ken Takamiya (Managing Director)

This is Takamiya from Nomura Securities. I have two questions on the upward revision of your guidance and the 12% ROE target. I would like to hear your thoughts on the upward revision from two perspectives. First, I wonder if the assumptions are too conservative considering the concurrent levels of the Nikkei stock average and the dollar-yen exchange rate. Second, the revision of JPY 100 billion from JPY 2 trillion to JPY 2.1 trillion is not small, but it is a somewhat small revision to your bottom line profit. What was the aim and your thoughts on this small revision? This is my question on your guidance. My second question is on your ROE target.

On page 6, you explained verbally the general direction you are heading, including assumptions like interest rate of around 1% and no gain on sale from reducing your equity holdings, but I think this is the first time you have clarified this in writing. Regarding the mid to long-term ROE target of 12%, I want to know if there were any changes in your thinking and the management's perspective reflecting the changes in the environment or tailwinds. Thank you.

Jun Togawa (Senior Managing Corporate Executive and Group CFO)

Thank you, Takamiya-san.

Regarding the upward revision, our initial guidance was JPY 2 trillion based on the assumption that the decrease in net gains and losses on equity securities and the absence of reversal of large loan loss provisions will be offset by continued growth in customer segment NOP, improvement in treasury interest income benefiting from last year's bond portfolio rebalance, and a rebound from the loss due to bond portfolio rebalance in fiscal year 2024. Decrease in gains and losses on equity securities, absence of reversal of large loan loss provisions, treasury interest income improvement, and rebound from last year's bond portfolio rebalance are in line with our initial forecast. Meanwhile, progress in the first half exceeded expectations thanks to better-than-planned customer segment NOP, lower credit costs, upside in Morgan Stanley equity-accounted earnings, and one-time gains not factored in our initial forecast.

I will explain our assumptions for the second half later, but we forecast strong yen toward the end of the fiscal year, slower treasury sales in the second half as trading gains were weighted to the first half, credit costs in line with our initial forecast, though the full year will depend on the impact of tariffs, and an increase in strategic expense allocation, including retail, and also included certain financial measures for FY 2026, resulting in a guidance of JPY 2.1 trillion. There was internal discussion about whether a 5% revision was really necessary, but we decided to do so with the aim of disclosing our forecasts appropriately at each point in time since the first half of last year. We may not have done this in the past, but that is our line of thinking.

Regarding the assumptions, the yen assumption against the dollar is quite strong given the current level, but depending on interest rate trends, it is not unreasonable for the yen to be in the mid-140s by the end of the fiscal year. The share price of around JPY 43,000 may also seem conservative, but the impact of share prices on our earnings is not significant, so this was not the reason for the conservative profit target. As for future upside, we expect further growth in the customer segment and decline in credit costs, which is again subject to tariffs, and also an upside in FX that you mentioned.

Whether there has been a change in our view on the 12% target, we originally began the discussions to set the 12% target by trying to see how much we can increase our profit under the assumptions that Japan's policy interest rate will be around 1% and that we have no gain on sale of equity holdings, which I strongly insisted. Since investors asked questions based on different assumptions, such as including gain on sale of equity holdings, we made that clear. We are fleshing out the details to achieve this as we speak. One change in our thinking, both in terms of inorganic investment and the use of capital, as I may have mentioned before, is that we are now discussing potential investments internally based on whether or not they contribute to achieving 12% ROE.

Ken Takamiya (Managing Director)

That is all for me. Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Next, Mr. Nakamura of BofA Securities, please.

Shinichiro Nakamura (Equity Research Analyst)

This is Nakamura from BofA Securities. Thank you for the explanation. I also have two questions. First, let me confirm the full year CET1 ratio forecast on page 20 again. It does not seem like it will approach the middle of the range, so if you could share with us your view on the level and the breakdown to the extent possible. There was an article in Bloomberg about your inorganic investments, and you denied that the information came from you. Could you elaborate on this if possible? Sorry for asking too much. That is my first question. My second question is on credit costs. In the first half, there was a reversal on the bank non-consolidated basis, so if you achieve your target in the second half, this is a reasonable level.

My question is on the current situation of private credit in the U.S.. Although MUFG has not directly mentioned it, we are seeing large-scale loans to Oracle's data center investment, among others, which is widening credit spreads as a result. What are your thoughts on this increasing concentration of risk? Thank you.

Jun Togawa (Senior Managing Corporate Executive and Group CFO)

First, regarding the outlook for set-one ratio toward the end of fiscal year 2025, the end of March 2026, approximately 80 basis points up in the second half from the accumulation of net income based on the revised performance targets, 65 basis points down due to shareholder returns, including dividends and share buybacks, as I explained earlier, around 30 basis points down from the planned increase in risk assets, and with Morgan Stanley's accumulated profit from its extremely strong performance, et cetera, we expect the ratio to be somewhere between 10%-10.5%.

Regarding the private credit market, MUFG actually does not have a significant exposure. We have some exposure to companies that have been mentioned in the media, but as you saw earlier, our NPL ratio is declining, so I do not think we have a significant exposure. That said, the private credit market is extremely strong now, so we need to keep a close eye on the recent increase in volatility. I think the risk of lending to data centers depends on the project. We have extensive knowledge on project finance, so it is important to carefully select projects taking into account factors like sources of cash flow and technical conditions such as proper installation of high-voltage cables. Regarding the first question on inorganic investment, oh, sorry, I skipped that, but actually I have no comment. We continue to consider opportunities in three areas, namely AMIS, digital, and U.S. Asia.

Shinichiro Nakamura (Equity Research Analyst)

I understand. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Next, Mr. Matsuno from Mizuho Securities.

Maoki Matsuno (Banks Equity Research Analyst)

Matsuno from Mizuho Securities, thank you for the explanation. I have two questions. First question is on page three, upward revision of financial targets for FY 2025. Can you give a more detailed breakdown? The graph on the bottom left shows a breakdown into customer segment, equity method investees, and review on financial indicators. Can you give a breakdown of each of them? For example, weaker yen than the beginning of the year, would that be included in review on financial indicators or the equity market rally? Can you give some color on the factors affecting changes in net income? My second question is on the operational policy of global markets in the second half.

In the first half of the year, it looks like you did well by drastically reducing yen bonds and super long-term bonds and making profits on foreign bonds. Is there anything you can speak about the operations of global markets in the second half of the year? Those are my two questions.

Jun Togawa (Senior Managing Corporate Executive and Group CFO)

Starting with page three, your question on major factors affecting changes in full year targets. Earlier, I said the customer segment is expected to continue making steady progress in the second half of the year and is expected to exceed the initial plan by around JPY 30 billion for the full year. Regarding equity and earnings of equity method investees, I must admit it is difficult to say how much is coming from Morgan Stanley, but a certain amount is factored in. There are also some one-offs. Please look at the footnote on page eight.

Step-up gains from acquiring shares of JACCS, one-off gains from acquisition of TIDLOR as a subsidiary, and gains related to liquidation of local subsidiaries. A part of them were not factored in, accounting for approximately JPY 40 billion. The revision of financial indicators is expected to have an impact of approximately JPY 30 billion, mainly due to the weak yen. Stock price outlook was revised up, but gain on sales of equity holdings has been hedged for stocks scheduled for sale at the beginning of the fiscal year, so impact of sales of equity holdings is minimal. Although there will be partial impact on earnings due to an increase in AUM in the asset management and investor services, the impact of the revision of stock price assumptions is not that big. The impact is primarily from FOREX, and the total adds up to JPY 100 billion.

For global markets, you are right. In Q1, reducing the balance of super long-term JGBs, partially offsetting with redemption gains on bear fund and gains on sale of foreign bonds, that's for the first half of the year. Regarding yen bond management from the second half onwards, our policy of gradually building up our yen bond positions while monitoring the rise in Japan's policy rate remains unchanged. Short-term JGBs decreased as the BOJ's growth-oriented lending support operation is gradually coming to an end, and need for short-term JGBs as collateral has decreased. The balance of short-term government bonds has fallen significantly. As for foreign bonds, the balance of long-term bonds appears to be increasing while duration is decreasing, and some might feel this does not sit well. This is due to categorizing mortgage bonds with long statutory maturities as long-term, but overall duration shortened to four years.

Maoki Matsuno (Banks Equity Research Analyst)

That's all for me. Thank you for the detailed explanation.

Operator (participant)

Next is Mr. Matsuda from Daiwa Securities.

Ken Matsuda (Equity Research)

Matsuda from Daiwa Securities, thank you for taking my question. I also have two questions. Regarding net fees and commissions, net fees and commissions in the first half of the year was very strong for both domestic and non-domestic. Is this strength in the first half a temporary phenomenon, or including the current pipeline, can we expect further growth going forward? That is my first question. Second question is on set-one ratio on page 20. The impact of exchange rates was cited as a factor in the decline in the set-one ratio in the first half of the year. It worsened by 40 basis points, but the yen did not appreciate significantly between the end of March and the end of September. Why deteriorate by 40 basis points? Was it due to the Thai baht?

What was the impact in the first half? If the weak yen environment continues, can we expect the CET1 ratio to improve further? These are my two questions.

Thank you for your questions. Fee revenues, fee income partially include impact of acquisitions. Acquisition of WealthNavi, MPMS acquired by our trust bank, and NICOS acquiring Zenhoren has resulted in a total acquisition effect of about JPY 48 billion. Apart from that, GCIB in particular is further promoting OND initiatives, so fee income will grow. Domestically, fees related to loans such as MBOs and LBOs are growing. Solution-related fees are also growing, so we can expect continued growth in this area. In addition, AUM in asset management is growing steadily, and IS has also issued a press release stating that outsourcing operations have quickly achieved the MTBP target. These areas are growing steadily, so I believe we can continue to grow.

Regarding set-one ratio for the first half of the year, impact of U.S. MUA is large, as I might have said in May. The dollar-yen exchange rate from December to June saw the yen appreciate by about JPY 14. We took some hedging measures, but were implemented after April or May, and hence this impact. Regarding impact of the weak yen on set-one ratio, it will depend on the trends in the dollar-yen and Thai baht, but the weak yen will have a certain effect in lifting the set-one ratio.

That is all for me. Thank you. Understood.

Operator (participant)

Next is Mr. Yano, JPMorgan.

Takahiro Yano (Senior Research Analyst)

Thank you for taking my questions. I also have two questions. One is a detailed question, a follow-up to Mr. Matsuno's question.

Regarding the revised target for this fiscal year, you referred to the waterfall chart on the lower left, but I'd like to confirm referring to the table above. NOP is up JPY 50 billion. Credit costs haven't changed, and ordinary profits increased by JPY 150 billion. I assume this is coming from increase in ownership interest, stock-related under factors accounting for JPY 100 billion. I'd like to know the breakdown. This is my first question. The second question is a high-level question. Today, there was a headline in the news quoting CEO Mr. Kamezawa about achieving global top-tier ROE and corporate value. I assume this is along the same lines of what he has been saying, but just to be sure, can we take this as a hint that the current ROE target of 12% will change? Is there no need to read too much into it?

I would like to know what you mean by achieving global top-tier ROE, if there is anything we should know of. Thank you for the questions. Should I explain both NOP and ordinary profit? If you could elaborate on the variance, if there is anything that is tricky in NOP.

Jun Togawa (Senior Managing Corporate Executive and Group CFO)

Okay, within NOP, JPY 25 billion is from FOREX, assuming the yen to be about 5 yen stronger. The rebound from treasury trading gains was concentrated in the first half, as I said, and the difference between first half and second half is about JPY 130 billion. There is increase in expenses. Expense incurred in [Emutto], IT cost, AI, cyber-related, impact from certain inflation-related costs, base wage increase, among others. All in all, about JPY 100 billion in expense increase. We are also considering a certain level of structural improvements for next fiscal year as profits are also strong.

Averaging them all out, we expected an upside of about JPY 50 billion in NOP. Regarding ordinary profit, there is a one-off step-up gain from an increase in our ownership interest. This accounted for about JPY 100 billion in the first half. Some of it was not accounted for in the plan, as I said earlier. Combined with Morgan Stanley's profit increase, ordinary profit was revised up by JPY 150 billion. To your second question, I appreciate the expectations you have on us, but we will first focus on achieving 12%. Mr. Kamezawa spoke in that context. Thank you.

Takahiro Yano (Senior Research Analyst)

Understood. Thank you very much.

It seems there are no further questions, so we will conclude the Q&A session. Finally, Mr. Togawa would like to say a few words. Togawa-san, please.

Jun Togawa (Senior Managing Corporate Executive and Group CFO)

Thank you very much for joining us today despite the late hour and on a day where many companies are announcing their results. Thank you for your diverse questions and comments. Today, I mainly explained the progress made in Q2 of FY 2025, and President Kamezawa will provide a more detailed explanation, including his own thoughts at the investor briefing on the 18th. We look forward to your participation. We would appreciate your continued understanding and further support. Thank you very much for joining us today.

Operator (participant)

This concludes the online conference call on financial highlights for the first half of FY 2025 of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group. Thank you very much for participating today.