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MI

MICROVISION, INC. (MVIS)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 revenue was $1.65M, below S&P Global consensus of $3.25M as an expected customer order slipped into 2025; Primary EPS (S&P) of -$0.095 beat consensus of -$0.125, while GAAP diluted EPS was -$0.14. Management cited industrial customer momentum but a decision delay as the reason for the top-line shortfall (S&P estimates marked with asterisks and defined below).
  • Non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA loss was $13.2M (vs. $13.6M loss YoY), and cash used in operations improved vs. prior year to $15.0M (vs. $16.6M), with year-end cash and investments of $74.7M .
  • Outlook: management reiterated near-term focus on industrial verticals and disclosed secured production capacity via ZF to fulfill anticipated demand of $30–$50M over the next 12–18 months (not formal revenue guidance). 2025 OpEx run-rate guided to $48–$50M .
  • Liquidity: post-Q4, access to capital of $161M (ATM, remaining convertible facility, and new equity), with $12.25M of the note converted (27%); CFO also framed total available capital as $235M including subsequent equity in February 2025 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • EPS (Primary, S&P) beat: Primary EPS of -$0.095* vs. -$0.125* consensus, aided by lower non-cash D&A and stock comp vs 4Q23 and overall cost discipline (S&P estimates marked with asterisks; see Estimates Context).
    • Industrial traction and capacity readiness: secured ZF production commitment to meet anticipated industrial demand of $30–$50M over 12–18 months; Q4 revenue largely sensor sales to multiple customers (under 10), not NRE. “This gave us the confidence to enter into an agreement with our partner, ZF, to increase our production capacity.” .
    • Liquidity extended: ended Q4 with $74.7M cash and investments; subsequent equity and note conversions improved flexibility. Management cited access to $161M (8-K) and separately $235M (CFO) subject to conditions and subsequent actions .

  • What Went Wrong

    • Revenue miss and timing: $1.65M vs. $3.25M* consensus, with management citing a customer decision delay into 2025; underscores volatility at low scale and dependency on deal timing (S&P estimates).
    • Wider GAAP net loss due to financing-related items: Q4 net loss $31.2M (vs. $19.7M YoY) included ~$13.2M of new convertible note-related expense; adjusted EBITDA loss was roughly flat YoY .
    • Gross margin pressure: Q4 gross loss of $2.47M (gross margin ~-149%) on low revenue; margins remained negative in Q3 as well, highlighting operating leverage sensitivity at current scale .

Financial Results

P&L snapshot (USD Millions, except per-share; periods ordered oldest → newest)

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue$1.90 $0.19 $1.65
Gross Profit (Loss)$0.35 $(0.39) $(2.47)
Gross Margin %18.2% (calc. from revenue and cost) -206.8% (calc.) -149.4% (calc.)
GAAP Diluted EPS$(0.11) $(0.07) $(0.14)
Adjusted EBITDA$(12.65) $(11.67) $(13.23)

Vs. S&P Global consensus – Q4 2024

MetricActualConsensusSurprise
Revenue$1.65$3.25*Miss $(1.60)
EPS (Primary)$(0.095)*$(0.125)*Beat $0.030*

Values with asterisks (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

KPIs and liquidity (USD Millions)

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Cash used in operations$(18.6) $(14.1) $(15.0)
Cash & Equivalents (end)$26.75 $16.52 $54.49
Investment Securities (end)$29.93 $26.68 $20.22
Cash + Investments (end)$56.68 (sum) $43.20 (sum) $74.70 (sum)

Additional details:

  • Q4 net loss was $31.2M (incl. $13.2M convertible note-related expense; $2.0M SBC; $1.7M D&A) .
  • Non-GAAP definitions for adjusted EBITDA and adjusted gross profit provided by company .

Guidance Changes

Note: Management did not issue formal numerical revenue or EPS guidance. The following are management targets/outlook items disclosed in the release and call.

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent UpdateChange
Industrial demand outlook (via ZF capacity)Next 12–18 monthsN/AAnticipated demand of $30–$50M; production commitment secured with ZF (not formal revenue guidance) New disclosure
OpEx run-rate (R&D + SG&A)FY 2025N/A$48–$50M run-rate expected New disclosure
CapexNear-termN/AQ4 capex ~$0.1M; no formal 2025 capex guide Informational
Liquidity (access to capital)Post-Q4 / Subsequent eventsN/AAccess to $161M (8-K); CFO also cited $235M including subsequent equity and ATM capacity, subject to conditions Strengthened
Convertible noteCurrentN/A~$33M outstanding at $1.59 conversion; >20% converted; 2nd $30M tranche available subject to conditions Informational

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024, Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Industrial vertical focus (AMR/AGV, cobots)Q2: Industrial revenue started; agricultural customer hardware sales . Q3: building industrial pipeline; delayed orders cited .Sub-8W MOVIA L with integrated perception software; multiple engagements; ZF capacity to support $30–$50M anticipated demand over 12–18 months .Accelerating industrial go-to-market; clearer capacity plan.
Automotive RFQsQ2/Q3: Actively engaged with seven high-volume RFQs .Still seven RFQs; OEM SOP timelines pushed out; process uncertainty persists .Extended decision cycles; timing risk elevated.
Defense opportunityLimited prior explicit emphasis.New focus on defense programs leveraging perception and AR pedigree; partnership approach; ground-based platforms emphasized .Emerging adjacencies expanding TAM.
Technology stance (ToF vs FMCW; multimodal)N/AManagement/CTO defended Time-of-Flight for power/packaging; multimodal (radar/camera/lidar) system approach; sub-8W sensor, 25,000-hour life highlighted .Clarity on product strategy and differentiation.
Regulatory/macroN/ANHTSA 2028/29 AEB requirements seen as achievable; may drive lidar in higher-content systems; potential trade barriers favor non-China suppliers .Regulatory tailwinds; macro/trade can shape competitive set.
Cost disciplineQ2/Q3: streamlining to extend runway; improving cash burn .2025 OpEx run-rate guided to $48–$50M; cash used in operations improved YoY; sequential trends mixed Q3→Q4 .Continuing discipline; focus on leverage with industrial revenue.

Management Commentary

  • “We made progress on multiple engagements through 2024 with our MOVIA L with integrated perception and application software… offering a sub-8-watt sensor… frictionless to integrate.”
  • “$30 million to $50 million [demand over] the next 12 to 18 months… we have already secured production commitments from ZF to ensure uninterrupted supply.”
  • “For the fourth quarter revenue, we reported $1.7 million… primarily derived from the sale of sensors… minimal NRE; [one] customer delayed its decision to 2025.”
  • “We finished the year with $75 million in cash and cash equivalents… access to a total of $235 million… $114 million ATM… $30 million undrawn… $70 million new equity capital.”
  • “Automotive OEMs… are reformulating ADAS/L3 strategies; lidar is clearly part of that… we’re supporting them and staying engaged.” (CTO)

Q&A Highlights

  • Revenue mix and customer breadth: Q4 revenue mostly sensor sales with “very minimal NRE,” across fewer than 10 customers—supports early commercialization breadth .
  • Industrial capacity and demand: ZF production capacity reserved to meet $30–$50M anticipated demand over 12–18 months; clarity that figure reflects expected customer demand, not a lump-sum contract .
  • Auto RFQs timing risk: OEM SOP timelines are moving out; evaluations continue but award-to-SOP conversion uncertain; competitive dynamics and program churn cited .
  • Tech position: Company reaffirmed Time-of-Flight lidar within multimodal stacks vs. FMCW, emphasizing power, packaging, and cost advantages when combined with radar/cameras .
  • Regulatory tailwinds: NHTSA 2028/29 AEB requirements viewed as achievable, likely raising ADAS content floors and catalyzing more advanced systems where lidar can be differentiated .

Estimates Context

  • Coverage was thin (two estimates) and skewed by timing: revenue $3.25M* vs. actual $1.65M, EPS (Primary) -$0.125* vs. actual -$0.095*, implying a revenue miss and EPS beat on an S&P Primary EPS basis [GetEstimates].
  • Company-reported GAAP diluted EPS was -$0.14, reflecting financing-related items; reconcile differences when updating models (Primary EPS vs. GAAP diluted) .

Values with asterisks (*) retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term revenue story is industrial-led: tangible sensor sales to multiple customers and ZF-backed capacity underpin a clearer path to $30–$50M anticipated demand over 12–18 months; execution on conversions and delivery schedules is the next catalyst .
  • Auto RFQs remain strategic but timing is deferred; investors should de-risk models by pushing auto SOP contributions right, while monitoring industrial attach rates and recurring software pull-through .
  • Liquidity is improved post-Q4 via ATM, equity, and note conversions; manage dilution and note overhang carefully—CFO noted ~$33M outstanding at $1.59 conversion with continued access to facilities subject to conditions .
  • Margin path hinges on scale: Q4 gross margin was negative at low volumes; monitor pricing, mix (sensors vs. software), and manufacturing efficiencies as industrial volumes ramp .
  • 2025 expense run-rate guide ($48–$50M) sets the hurdle for gross profit breakeven; watch quarterly OpEx cadence and capex discipline vs. revenue ramp to assess breakeven timing .
  • Regulatory and macro developments (NHTSA AEB timelines, potential trade barriers) could advantage non-China lidar suppliers and accelerate higher-content ADAS where lidar is “part of the perception system,” per CTO .
  • Trading setup: revenue miss vs. consensus may weigh near-term, but concrete industrial wins/POs, additional defense/industrial partnerships, or auto RFQ conversion could re-rate the story; liquidity removes near-term financing risk but raises dilution sensitivity .

Additional Source Details

  • Q4 2024 8-K/press release with financials and non-GAAP reconciliations .
  • Q4 2024 earnings call transcript (prepared remarks and Q&A) –.
  • Prior quarters for trend analysis: Q3 2024 8-K –; Q2 2024 8-K –.
  • Other relevant Q4 2024 press releases/filings: $75M senior secured convertible note facility and related details –; financing summary reiterated in Q3 release .

Values with asterisks (*) retrieved from S&P Global.