MV Oil Trust (MVO)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q4 2024 distribution declined to $2.76M, or $0.240 per unit, payable January 24, 2025, on 144,095 BOE at an average realized price of $65.89/BOE; lower oil prices and slightly lower volumes drove reduced gross proceeds and net profits versus Q3 2024 and Q4 2023 .
• Versus Q3 2024, average price fell 10.8% ($73.90 → $65.89), volumes declined 3.3% (149,086 → 144,095 BOE), gross proceeds fell 13.9% ($11.02M → $9.49M), and distributions dropped from $0.330 to $0.240 per unit .
• Versus Q4 2023, average price fell 17.2% ($79.53 → $65.89), volumes declined 6.7% (154,435 → 144,095 BOE), gross proceeds fell 22.7% ($12.28M → $9.49M), and distributions dropped from $0.465 to $0.240 per unit .
• No guidance or earnings call transcript; communications limited to the quarterly distribution press release. Distribution timing (record date Jan 16; pay date Jan 24) and magnitude are near-term trading catalysts for income-focused holders .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Operating cost line declined sequentially, helping partially offset lower prices: costs were $5.75M in Q4 vs $5.96M in Q3 (-3.4% q/q) .
• No capital expenditure reserve taken by MV Partners, maximizing distributable cash for the period (“MV Partners reserve for capital expenditures: --”) .
• Administrative discipline remained consistent; the provision for estimated Trust expenses was $0.233M in Q4 (similar to recent quarters) .

Quote: “Unitholders of record on January 16, 2025 will receive a distribution amounting to $2,760,000 or $0.240 per unit payable January 24, 2025.”

What Went Wrong

• Realized prices fell materially q/q and y/y ($65.89/BOE in Q4 vs $73.90 in Q3 and $79.53 in Q4’23), compressing gross proceeds and net profits .
• Volumes declined sequentially and y/y (144,095 BOE vs 149,086 in Q3 and 154,435 in Q4’23), further weighing on distributable amounts .
• Net profits contracted to $3.74M (from $5.06M in Q3 and $6.95M in Q4’23), driving lower trust NPI ($2.99M) and a smaller per‑unit payout ($0.240) .

Analyst concern context (from issuer language): “The announced distributable amount is based on the amount of cash received or expected to be received… Any differences in actual cash receipts by the Trust could affect this distributable amount.” Also cites commodity price risks and OPEC actions as key uncertainties .

Financial Results

Distribution and Underlying Metrics

Notes: MV Partners recorded no reserve for capital expenditures in the periods shown (“--”) .

• Estimate comparisons: Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for revenue/EPS was not available for MVO this quarter; the Trust does not provide GAAP “revenue”/EPS at the Trust level in distribution releases, and sell-side coverage is limited. We attempted to retrieve SPGI consensus, but no usable data was returned.

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: No earnings call transcript was published; themes reflect quantified drivers and issuer risk emphasis from distribution releases.

Management Commentary

• Strategic/operating context: As a passive royalty trust administered by a trustee, issuer commentary is limited to distribution mechanics, period production/price, cost pass-through, and standard risk disclosures in the press release .
• Important quote: “The announced distributable amount is based on the amount of cash received or expected to be received by the Trustee from the underlying properties on or prior to the record date with respect to the quarter ended December 31, 2024.”
• Risk framing: The press release highlights uncertainties from drilling outcomes, inherent production risks, purchaser payment ability, and “actions by the members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries” among other factors .

Q&A Highlights

• Not applicable. No earnings call transcript or Q&A session was published for the quarter; investor communication consisted of the distribution press release .

Estimates Context

• Consensus availability: S&P Global/Capital IQ quarterly revenue/EPS consensus for MVO was not available for Q4 2024 (no usable data retrieved). Trust distribution releases do not provide GAAP revenue/EPS for the Trust, and sell-side coverage is limited .
• Implication: Estimate models, where maintained, will likely need to reflect lower realized prices and modest volume declines observed in Q4, which drove sequential reductions in gross proceeds, net profits, and distributions .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Distribution reset lower: $0.240 per unit in Q4 2024 vs $0.330 in Q3 and $0.465 y/y, driven primarily by reduced realized prices and slightly lower volumes .
• Price sensitivity is high: Average price fell to $65.89/BOE (from $73.90 in Q3 and $79.53 y/y), compressing gross proceeds and net profits despite modest cost relief .
• Volumes trending down: 144,095 BOE in Q4 vs 149,086 in Q3 and 154,435 in Q4’23; volume slippage compounded price headwinds on distributable cash .
• Cost discipline helped at the margin: Costs decreased sequentially to $5.75M from $5.96M, but not enough to offset lower prices/volumes .
• No capex reserve: MV Partners recorded no capex reserve (“--”), allowing all NPI less Trust expenses to flow to unitholders .
• Near-term catalyst: Record date January 16 and pay date January 24 for the Q4 distribution; distribution magnitude is the principal trading catalyst for income-focused holders .
• Risk skew: Commodity price volatility and OPEC actions remain key external drivers of future distributions, per issuer risk language .