MAXCYTE, INC. (MXCT)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q2 2025 total revenue was $8.51M (-18% YoY) on core revenue of $8.20M (+8% YoY); SPL program-related revenue fell to $0.30M from $2.85M in Q2 2024, reflecting milestone timing variability .
• Results missed Street consensus: revenue $8.51M vs $9.52M*, EPS -$0.12 vs -$0.102*, and EBITDA -$13.13M vs -$10.94M*; weakness driven by customer inventory management, program rationalization, and capital equipment hesitancy. Bold negative surprises: revenue, EPS, EBITDA .
• Guidance cut: core revenue now flat to down 10% vs 2024 (from +8% to +15% prior), SPL program revenue maintained at ~$5M, and FY-end cash ≥$155M (prior ~$160M) .
• Catalysts: lowered guidance and SPL milestone timing a negative; new SPL signings (Adicet Bio, Anocca AB) and APAC instrument strength a positive narrative into 2H and 2026 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Instruments revenue grew 22% YoY to $2.14M amid improved capex conditions at lower-priced tiers; “we’re starting to see those short term headwinds dissipate… Asia Pacific has been strong for us” — CFO/CEO .
• Strategic momentum: two new SPLs (Adicet Bio, Anocca AB) signed in late July/early August; SPL portfolio reached 31 agreements, with 18 active clinical programs and 1 commercial program .
• Vertex’s CASGEVY launch ramp continued with growing ATC activations and patient flow, underpinning commercial royalty participation; Q2 SPL revenue was primarily CASGEVY royalties (no milestones recognized) .

What Went Wrong

• SPL program-related revenue fell to $0.30M from $2.85M (-89% YoY), driving the total revenue decline (-18% YoY); gross margin compressed to 82% (from 86%) .
• Guidance reduced due to customer PA inventory management, manufacturing network reorganization impacting licenses and leases, and program consolidation/wind-downs; capital equipment hesitancy persisted .
• Bottom-line deterioration: net loss widened to $12.36M from $9.38M; EBITDA loss expanded to $13.13M from $10.89M YoY .

Financial Results

Quarterly Trend (oldest → newest)

Q2 2025 vs Prior Year and vs Estimates

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Revenue Breakdown (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024)

KPIs

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “We are lowering our 2025 guidance to account for customer inventory management, as well as some reprioritization and consolidation of customer pipelines… we will achieve profitability with our existing capital.” — Maher Masoud, President & CEO .
• “Within the core business, instrument installed base grew to 814… instrument revenue grew 22% year over year… Asia Pacific has been strong for us.” — Doug Swirsky, CFO .
• “SPL program-related revenue was almost entirely from CASGEVY commercial royalties as we did not recognize any milestones during the quarter.” — CFO .
• “We expect to return back to growth in 2026… and the launch of a new platform later this year that we believe will add to our top line growth.” — CEO .

Q&A Highlights

• Largest customer reorganization: Management emphasized short-term impact from manufacturing consolidation and inventory drawdown; “we feel very confident there won’t be any more major changes” to manufacturing operations and no change to platform commitment .
• Quarterly cadence: Slight revenue weighting toward Q4 within the revised range; downside outcomes are Q4-dependent .
• Instruments demand: Strategy to seed lower-priced systems; APAC strength helping offset uneven global cycles .
• PA ordering/tariffs: Single distributor order pulled forward to get ahead of tariffs; mix shift temporarily reduced SPL-derived share of core revenue .
• SPL pipeline resilience: Expect 3–5 SPLs per year; while some programs are rationalized, new SPLs backfill the portfolio; revised guide contemplates license pressure from a few decisions .

Estimates Context

• Q2 2025 actuals vs S&P Global consensus: revenue $8.51M vs $9.52M*, EPS -$0.12 vs -$0.102*, EBITDA -$13.13M vs -$10.94M*. Bold misses across all three, driven by SPL milestone timing, program consolidation, and capex hesitation .
• Forward implications: With core guidance reduced and SPL ~$5M maintained, Street models likely to trim core revenue and margin assumptions for 2H 2025; cadence slightly weighted to Q4, but SPL milestone timing remains variable .

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Core business resilience: +8% YoY core revenue in Q2 despite end-market pressures, led by instruments and steady licenses; watch APAC and lower-priced system adoption as ongoing offsets .
• SPL variability the swing factor: Q2 SPL revenue ($0.30M) underscored milestone lumpiness; total FY SPL guide (~$5M) maintained, but quarterly volatility remains high .
• Guidance cut recalibrates 2H expectations: Core now flat to -10% vs 2024; end cash ≥$155M; model lower PA/licenses near term, with potential improvement as inventory and reorg effects normalize .
• Medium-term setup: 31 SPLs, 18 clinical programs, five expected to enter pivotal within 6–18 months, plus a new platform launch in 2H 2025 — drivers for 2026 growth and multi-year royalty/PA leverage .
• Watch CASGEVY ramp: Vertex’s ATC activations and patient flow support royalty tailwinds, but quarter-to-quarter revenue can vary based on infusion timing; positive structural trajectory .
• Tactical lens for traders: Near-term narrative skewed negative (guidance cut, SPL timing); monitor Q3/Q4 instruments momentum and any SPL milestone prints; regional strength (APAC) and distribution agreement in Japan provide incremental support .
• Risk management: Funding/regulatory environment remains a headwind for capex and program continuity; however, FDA’s supportive stance on CGT and SeQure Dx integration bolster strategic positioning .